Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[willie key]

1 hour ago, Eye Black said:

From a national perspective the Brewers will fall in those “top 5 bullpens in MLB” type lists because they were almost entirely based on a teams top 2-3 relievers. But the reality is having Williams, Rogers, Bush, Lamet, Boxberger, Cousins, Suter is a much stronger overall bullpen then what the Brewers have been rolling with to this point.

Considerably stronger.  

[sveumrules]

15 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Today, with Hader still in the Brewers depth chart listings on FanGraphs, they are at 90.6% playoffs, 81.7% division and 5.4% World Series odds.

Updated FanGraphs odds with Rogers/Bush instead of Hader…

90.2% playoffs, 80.8% division, 5.4% World Series

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Updated FanGraphs odds with Rogers/Bush instead of Hader…

90.2% playoffs, 80.8% division, 5.4% World Series

 

Hader is awesome. He has been awesome for a long time. He's the best relief pitcher in MLB. But trading him and essentially replacing him with Rogers/Williams (albeit with potential pen upgrades in Lamet and Bush) the playoff odds dropped a whopping .4%

I was obviously victim to the idea that Hader's value is enormous. These numbers indicate otherwise, though, as they are essentially saying that you can replace an elite reliever with a good one without any sort of substantial falloff.

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, mothershipconnection said:

I'm only surprised when people don't know P-Funk, and have wasted their time on inferior music.

I remember that group.  Am I showing my age...?

[YelichPosse]

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Updated FanGraphs odds with Rogers/Bush instead of Hader…

90.2% playoffs, 80.8% division, 5.4% World Series

 

So you're saying..... there's still a chance! 

The more I read about the Hader deal the more I understand how starters or position players carry more value than even the best reliever. Mind you, even the best reliever can falter and then its a catastrophic result (as we saw Hader in July). It's sort of an ah-ha moment for me... and yet we still have DWill and got back Rogers, and added Bush - so overall, we have less pressure on the Gotts and Milners (who already are showing their run of magic may be over) - so the bullpen as a whole may be quite a bit better today than it was yesterday. Consider me intrigued. 

[areacodes]

21 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Hader is awesome. He has been awesome for a long time. He's the best relief pitcher in MLB. But trading him and essentially replacing him with Rogers/Williams (albeit with potential pen upgrades in Lamet and Bush) the playoff odds dropped a whopping .4%

I was obviously victim to the idea that Hader's value is enormous. These numbers indicate otherwise, though, as they are essentially saying that you can replace an elite reliever with a good one without any sort of substantial falloff.

And the Cardinals added Quintana which likely had some impact on the playoff/division odds dropping as well.  WS odds stayed the same.

[bjkrautk]

After nearly a day of thinking about the trade, I still don't love it...but I'm starting to understand it more.

 

Rogers (making sure not to insert a "d" in the middle of his name) is a downgrade from Hader - no question - but he's still an effective closer.  Rogers' GB/FB ratio over his career is much more neutral, meaning he's less likely to give up homers when he does get hit...which has to be a consideration when talking about a pitcher is going from SD to Milwaukee. 

I also agree with the comments recently about yesterday's moves lengthening the quality of the bullpen as a whole; runs scored before the 9th inning also count...and can prevent the game from getting to our good relievers late.  We know July was a rough patch for Hader, but it wasn't all that much better for Gott, Millner, Boxberger and the like.  (Small samples all around....but also realizing Gustave has been much better lately than I gave him credit for.)

Lamet is someone who can give the team multiple innings, which is important with Peralta's return.  With Freddy, Ashby, and Houser all being guys with some pitch count limitations for the next month or two, having multiple bridges to the late relief in Lamet and Suter will mean less stress on the 'pen down the stretch run.

Ruiz just needs to be better than Jonathan Davis to provide value to the team right now.  Heck, if his base stealing is as good as advertised, he could be the pinch running option for the playoff run (think Quintin Berry), with long-term upside and multiple years of team control.

 

...plus, Gasser is the long-term lottery ticket.

[Pugger]

I and I guess others thought Hader would bring a higher return in a trade.  ?

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I and I guess others thought Hader would bring a higher return in a trade.  ?

If the trade of Hader was strictly in a firesale, maximize prospect value in return sort of mode, then yes I think the Brewers could have gotten a premier top-25 or so prospect plus a lottery ticket or two from a team.  Getting 3 players back who can all be expected to contribute at the MLB level this season in Rogers, Ruiz, and Lamet plus a quality LHP prospect that is now in AA about 1 season from being drafted  is still a ton of value.

[Jopal78]

They probably could have done better getting one player for Hader instead of four.  However, it probably wasn't possible with the Padres as San Diego likely needed to unload some payroll and the Brewers likely wanted to get a major league late inning reliever in return, those two complications likely diluted the prospect haul. 

[rickh150]

I keep coming back to how much value Hader lost when he decided that he

-was not playing Counsell matchup anymore, not being delegated to pitch whenever and to whomever, especially to the middle of the order.

-was not going multilple innings anymore

-was only pitching as a a traditional closer

I also guess there was much more behind the scenes, from contract disagreements and extension disagreements that pushed the team to this point.  

I also wonder how much Stearns believes in Hader.  The struggles of late. The season endings of both the Nationals (19) and Braves (21) had to play a factor, as well. There are lingering memories there too that naturally lead one to say, if we lose, let’s lose a different way.

 

[LouisEly]

15 hours ago, homer said:

I was thinking Joey Meyer but yeah. I don't want to be hurt again.

They're not playing at Dudley Field anymore.  Or even Cohen Stadium.

[monty57]

49 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They probably could have done better getting one player for Hader instead of four.  However, it probably wasn't possible with the Padres as San Diego likely needed to unload some payroll and the Brewers likely wanted to get a major league late inning reliever in return, those two complications likely diluted the prospect haul. 

Plus, San Diego wasn't giving up any of their top prospects, because they needed them for the Soto deal they were working on at the same time.

[monty57]

35 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I keep coming back to how much value Hader lost when he decided that he

-was not playing Counsell matchup anymore, not being delegated to pitch whenever and to whomever, especially to the middle of the order.

-was not going multilple innings anymore

-was only pitching as a a traditional closer

I also guess there was much more behind the scenes, from contract disagreements and extension disagreements that pushed the team to this point.  

I also wonder how much Stearns believes in Hader.  The struggles of late. The season endings of both the Nationals (19) and Braves (21) had to play a factor, as well. There are lingering memories there too that naturally lead one to say, if we lose, let’s lose a different way.

 

I always go back to how much value the Brewers lost when they decided that he was too important to the playoff chances for the team four or five years ago by keeping him in the bullpen, so they gave up on trying him out as a starter. I thought his upside could have been Randy Johnson, but instead they settled for "Closer value." But that was a long time ago, so it's all water under the bridge by now. We know what did happen and don't know what could have happened, so can't argue the counter-cyclical.

[SRB]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Updated FanGraphs odds with Rogers/Bush instead of Hader…

90.2% playoffs, 80.8% division, 5.4% World Series

 

Is the entire division updated though? I feel like the Cardinals getting Quintana/Stratton has a bigger impact than our trade.

[BigDaddy1974]

2 hours ago, Pugger said:

I and I guess others thought Hader would bring a higher return in a trade.  ?

I agree. I think most always felt that when he was going to be traded there would be a top 100 or two, big name prospects coming back, I think Gasser and Ruiz fall just short of that.  Rogers and Lamet are nice pieces but I guess I would have liked one of the big names that just went to Washington in the Soto deal. One of Gore, Abrams, Hassell, or Wood would have made it more palatable. I’m ok with the deal but I always thought Hader would bring back more.

[sveumrules]

37 minutes ago, SRB said:

Is the entire division updated though? I feel like the Cardinals getting Quintana/Stratton has a bigger impact than our trade.

Quintana & Stratton are listed on the STL rest of season depth chart at FanGraphs, so the updated odds do include them. Think that is why the Playoff/Division odds shifted slightly but the WS odds stayed the same.

[Ghostbear]

Have to admit, as an old player, high school and college baseball coach, I hate to see Hader go. He's an elite player that only comes around every 20 years or so. However, as his agent once stated, once his contract comes due there will be a bidding war. I suspect it'll take a 4 to 5 year contract at 125 yo 150 million to sign him should he continue as he has. Thus, as is the Brewers history, they get what they can get before the big pay day comes due. Stearns has been very good thus far in following the Brewer strategy so we'll just have to wait and see. No doubt they got alot for Hader, but he was a foundation part of the Brewers.  How many games this year and last did he win fot them. But now, a young Devin Williams spelled his end with the Crew as well.  Goodbye Josh. Loved you and will miss you. Just hope not too much. Greg

[dlk9s]

Devin Williams seems...not thrilled.

 

[treego14]

17 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

Devin Williams seems...not thrilled.

 

I cannot blame him!  The MLB makes it too difficult for small-market teams to go for it all!  Level the playing field, MLB!!!!

[KurtRussell]

23 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

Devin Williams seems...not thrilled.

 

Wow. I think he just saw his future and is pissed.

While the Hader move may look good on paper in a few years, I think Sterns underestimated the deal's impact on morale this season. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, KurtRussell said:

Wow. I think he just saw his future and is pissed.

While the Hader move may look good on paper in a few years, I think Sterns underestimated the deal's impact on morale this season. 

His future is as the closer of a contending ballclub. There are worse things in life ...

[nate82]

I think you guys are reading into this a little bit too much.  He just lost a friend and a teammate how else is he supposed to respond?

[JCREW]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think you guys are reading into this a little bit too much.  He just lost a friend and a teammate how else is he supposed to respond?

Add to that the possibility of a "promotion" to closer. If he shows that he's happy to have a chance at closer, that could make him appear selfish and unfriendly. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, monty57 said:

I always go back to how much value the Brewers lost when they decided that he was too important to the playoff chances for the team four or five years ago by keeping him in the bullpen, so they gave up on trying him out as a starter. I thought his upside could have been Randy Johnson, but instead they settled for "Closer value." But that was a long time ago, so it's all water under the bridge by now. We know what did happen and don't know what could have happened, so can't argue the counter-cyclical.

Hader never developed secondary pitches and command enough to be considered a quality MLB starting pitcher.  He's able to get by with a dominant, exploding fastball and average slider for 1-2 innings, and even before he was a closer only for multi-inning relieve appearances.  His changeup never developed and as a lefty, he never had good enough breaking stuff to get through a lineup 3x consistently.  And Hader is 6'3", not a 6'10" freak like the Big Unit who had even harder-to-hit angles with his stuff.

He is a great, fantastic, generational reliever - and IMO that is much more valuable than what most 5 IP starters are across baseball because they've become almost interchangeable parts.