Josh Hader Traded to the Padres

[LouisEly]

12 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Obviously you could make a different decision if you looked at a different timescale--one that included McGee's excellence last year.

No, it's just irrational Suter hate.  People think that he's a much worse pitcher than he really is.

As evidenced by the fact that Suter's numbers over the three previous seasons are almost exactly the same as McGee's. 

Suter (2019-2021):  123.1 IP, 37 ER, 40 BB, 122 K, 14 HRs, 2.70 ERA

McGee (2019-2021): 121.1 IP, 44 ER, 24 BB, 126 K, 20 HRs, 3.26 ERA

People just think McGee is better because he had a bunch of saves last year.

[SeaBass]

My take is the Brewers have been listening to trade offers on Hader for a few years now. I think it's likely they had a good idea what his trade value was from other teams' perspective.

The optics weren't great but if you look at how this team has been playing, and I'm not trying to be a negative downer about it, I can't imagine many fans feel like this is a championship team this season. Anything is possible but I think most fans felt, like I did, that they needed to get help on offense at the deadline to bolster their chances.

Stearns said he wasn't having much success finding a match to acquire a bat for reasonable compensation. I believe him, offense is down across the league so it stands to reason it was a seller's market for offense. I think that's why he pivoted to adding bullpen arms, if they are going to have a harder time scoring then they need the pitching to hold leads whenever possible.

Hader has been a very popular player among Brewers fans, rightly so. It hurts to lose a favorite player. I do feel reactions have been a little over the top though, people have been pretty fatalistic about it. I just don't feel like moving on from a successful closer is quite as big of a deal as it's being made out to be by fans. Williams is more than capable and I feel like Brewers fans know that, so the additions of multiple veteran relief pitchers should in theory enable the team to continue to be just as successful closing games in the late innings as they have been all along.

Sure Hader was elite and was a luxury most teams don't possess but the focus has to be that just because he's gone it doesn't mean the Brewers can't still compete at a high level.

[Never Outhustled]

17 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I could be smarky and ask which GMs you polled who said that the Brewers would be able to get a similar return for Hader in 2023.  But it's definitive statements like these that are what people are criticizing because the reality is that none of us know what Hader would have fetched in 2023.

One former GM has said publicly that pitchers get a better return at the deadline and hitters get a better return in the offseason.  

 

If relievers are worth more at the deadline, then why do we acquire relievers at the deadline every year, and why did we not acquire more relievers in the offseason, knowing relievers are cheaper then? Why can't we find a real bat at the deadline every year if they're cheaper then?

[monty57]

9 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

If relievers are worth more at the deadline, then why do we acquire relievers at the deadline every year, and why did we not acquire more relievers in the offseason, knowing relievers are cheaper then? Why can't we find a real bat at the deadline every year if they're cheaper then?

It was Doug Melvin who made that comment about pitching getting more at the deadline and hitting getting more in the offseason. We can choose to believe of disbelieve it, it's just what he said.

I think that this year with the bats we have to think in relative terms. We have "around league average" at every position. It's easier to improve from below average to average or slightly above average than it is to go from slightly above average to good. Getting a good player is expensive. 

I think that some of our prospects were probably on the "untouchable" list for Stearns, and I think that in a few years we will be very happy for that. We still had some good "trade bait" available, but not nearly enough for someone like Soto, and since Bell was included in that trade, he was probably off limits as well. That really limited the market on who we could have traded for that would have been a significant improvement over what we currently have.

As to trading Hader, the team getting him would obviously be "going for it" as well, so it's unlikely they would have given up a good MLB hitter in return. The net result is that we ended up with a bullpen this year that is probably around the same strength as it was when we had Hader, while picking up some prospects who I think Stearns really likes, even if they aren't "on the charts" so we "casual fans" don't know much about them.

Our bullpen will be weaker next year without Hader, so hopefully Williams will settle into the closer role and Bush can help maintain the bullpen as an overall strength for the team. The "economics of baseball" stink, but we needed the $15M or so in payroll relief we got by trading Hader, and hopefully that will allow Stearns & Co. to strengthen some of the holes in the roster.

Add in that some of the guys we didn't trade away, like Turang, Ashby, and our young OFs can step in for league minimum and help the team out, and I think what we did should help maintain the "continued competitiveness" that Attanasio has preached since bringing Stearns on board.

Our chance to win it all this year probably dropped slightly, when fans want to see it improve. Our chance to continue to put out winning baseball teams into the future probably went up, which fans don't really think about right now, but will be very happy for when cheering for future Brewer teams.

[KeithStone53151]

From simply a payroll perspective, the Brewers opening day payroll was $132m. Currently with my arbitration estimates, we would have had a $122m payroll in 2023 with no major moves. Cutting Hader, declining Wong's option, and non-tendering Renfroe's final year of arbitration drops that to $90m($15m Hader, $8m savings on Wong, i estimate Renfroe at $9m next year in arbitration). Renfroe may be kept, I assumed we'd look to save the $ with the prospect options we have. Regardless, my primary point is that $15m could go a long way toward improving the offense next year. There's probably $30m or so of resources available and no real glaring holes to fill, just improve on mediocre areas.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think people who are angry when a star player gets traded are going to have a lot more anger over the next few years. The way for a small market to remain competitive is to get something for great players before they leave for nothing. If we want to have a good team to watch year in and year out we have to accept losing some of the players we like. In essence to be a fan of this team given the way it operates, we need to invest our emotional attachment to team not the individual players. I for one don't get overly attached to players. For myself having a good team to follow is more fun than seeing a great player on a bad team so it doesn't really bother me.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

If relievers are worth more at the deadline, then why do we acquire relievers at the deadline every year, and why did we not acquire more relievers in the offseason, knowing relievers are cheaper then? Why can't we find a real bat at the deadline every year if they're cheaper then?

What do you consider a real bat?

Eduardo Escobar had a 108 OPS+ when we traded for him at the deadline, Moose was at 109 OPS+, Granderson 112 OPS+.

The only two hitters dealt at this deadline who would have been notable upgrades (Soto/Bell) were both traded in the same transaction.

Maybe if Benintendi played CF, but he’s LF only at this point.

Mancini at 114 OPS+ when he was dealt isn’t an upgrade over Rowdy or Keston. Even Cutch is up to a 105 OPS+.

What real bat could Stearns & company have acquired that would have moved the needle?

[jw5511986]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

What do you consider a real bat?

Eduardo Escobar had a 108 OPS+ when we traded for him at the deadline, Moose was at 109 OPS+, Granderson 112 OPS+.

The only two hitters dealt at this deadline who would have been notable upgrades (Soto/Bell) were both traded in the same transaction.

Maybe if Benintendi played CF, but he’s LF only at this point.

Mancini at 114 OPS+ when he was dealt isn’t an upgrade over Rowdy or Keston. Even Cutch is up to a 105 OPS+.

What real bat could Stearns & company have acquired that would have moved the needle?

I'm sorry but who asked for logic? Emotional reactions only please.

[torts]

35 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

What do you consider a real bat?

Eduardo Escobar had a 108 OPS+ when we traded for him at the deadline, Moose was at 109 OPS+, Granderson 112 OPS+.

The only two hitters dealt at this deadline who would have been notable upgrades (Soto/Bell) were both traded in the same transaction.

Maybe if Benintendi played CF, but he’s LF only at this point.

Mancini at 114 OPS+ when he was dealt isn’t an upgrade over Rowdy or Keston. Even Cutch is up to a 105 OPS+.

What real bat could Stearns & company have acquired that would have moved the needle?

Soto & Bell, clearly

[brewers888]

What exactly does it really mean to be a league average bat when around half or more of the teams are not even competitive. I think being league average may have meant something years ago when you didn't have so many uncompetitive teams but since our competition is the few teams trying to win being average at something means little to nothing.

[owbc]

Just now, brewers888 said:

What exactly does it really mean to be a league average bat when around half or more of the teams are not even competitive. I think being league average may have meant something years ago when you didn't have so many uncompetitive teams but since our competition is the few teams trying to win being average at something means little to nothing.

What it means is that the delta between what you have and what you are acquiring is not going to be very big. So you're getting depth or insurance more than an upgrade.

Obviously it worked for the Braves last year, but that's because the 110 OPS+ bats that they acquired decided to be 150 OPS+ bats down the stretch and in the playoffs. That just seems like another case of catching lightning in a bottle, similar to the 2018 Brewers. 

[monty57]

56 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I think people who are angry when a star player gets traded are going to have a lot more anger over the next few years. The way for a small market to remain competitive is to get something for great players before they leave for nothing. If we want to have a good team to watch year in and year out we have to accept losing some of the players we like. In essence to be a fan of this team given the way it operates, we need to invest our emotional attachment to team not the individual players. I for one don't get overly attached to players. For myself having a good team to follow is more fun than seeing a great player on a bad team so it doesn't really bother me.

Agree. I keep looking at that big wall of free agents that are all hitting at the same time (Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, Houser, Lauer) and putting together "what are we going to do" scenarios.

I think that trading Hader while picking up Bush gives the Brewers the option of keeping most of those guys together for one more year if they think that's the best option. They'll even have a little extra money to fill in some holes, as some cheap young players can take over and we won't have to spend big on those positions. 

However they play it, you're right that fans who get attached to the names on the back of the jersey are going to wonder what's going on when we're trading away our stars over the next few seasons. 

[Guest]

It's tough to upgrade the position players when you consider that by WAR per at bat the worst two players on the roster( once Jace is back) are Cutch and Tellez. When Tellez is your worst all around performer of the position player group there just isn't a ton of room for improvement.

 

Of course those numbers could change on the future, but as far as what's occurred this season.. the numbers don't lie, all of our position players and backups are solid, there just isn't an obvious weak link. There is no Yuni B. to replace.

[Never Outhustled]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

What do you consider a real bat?

Eduardo Escobar had a 108 OPS+ when we traded for him at the deadline, Moose was at 109 OPS+, Granderson 112 OPS+.

The only two hitters dealt at this deadline who would have been notable upgrades (Soto/Bell) were both traded in the same transaction.

Maybe if Benintendi played CF, but he’s LF only at this point.

Mancini at 114 OPS+ when he was dealt isn’t an upgrade over Rowdy or Keston. Even Cutch is up to a 105 OPS+.

What real bat could Stearns & company have acquired that would have moved the needle?

Trae Turner, Josh Bell. Also, Joey Gallo would have been a cheap roll of the dice that looks like his old self after leaving NY.

[WV Brew]

Personally, I think they should consider moving Woodruff to the closer role next year.  I think he'd be close to Hader's output.  He seems to struggle a lot this year around the 6th inning.  He was a closer in college so he's familiar with the role.

[tmwiese55]

6 minutes ago, WV Brew said:

Personally, I think they should consider moving Woodruff to the closer role next year.  I think he'd be close to Hader's output.  He seems to struggle a lot this year around the 6th inning.  He was a closer in college so he's familiar with the role.

No way.  A starter's value is vastly more important, like, it's not even close. He has a multi year track record of being near ace level starter, you never walk away from that.  Have a quicker trigger to pull him if that data has any value in terms of 3rd time through, over X amount pitches, etc.  

Moreover, Woodruff would never ever agree to it with the payday he's looking at in the next two years.  Starters get much bigger contracts, well because they're so much more valuable. 

[stalton]

23 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Trae Turner, Josh Bell. Also, Joey Gallo would have been a cheap roll of the dice that looks like his old self after leaving NY.

Trae wouldn't have been cheap. Josh Bell doesn't seem like he was coming to us. Gallo could have bounced back but probably doubtful enough to be an upgrade over anyone we had.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, WV Brew said:

Personally, I think they should consider moving Woodruff to the closer role next year.  I think he'd be close to Hader's output.  He seems to struggle a lot this year around the 6th inning.  He was a closer in college so he's familiar with the role.

You don't take ace/top 15 MLB starters, which Woodruff is, and move them to the pen, unless they're injured like John Smoltz. Even then, Smoltz went back to being a starter. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

No way.  A starter's value is vastly more important, like, it's not even close. He has a multi year track record of being near ace level starter, you never walk away from that.  Have a quicker trigger to pull him if that data has any value in terms of 3rd time through, over X amount pitches, etc.  

Moreover, Woodruff would never ever agree to it with the payday he's looking at in the next two years.  Starters get much bigger contracts, well because they're so much more valuable. 

Agree with everything. However, it's not "near ace-level" with Woody, it's just plain ace level. Since 2020, he's 8th in MLB in fWar and 5th in ERA, and 6th in xFIP (Burnes is 1st in all of these categories). 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, WV Brew said:

Personally, I think they should consider moving Woodruff to the closer role next year.  I think he'd be close to Hader's output.  He seems to struggle a lot this year around the 6th inning.  He was a closer in college so he's familiar with the role.

His ERA in the 6th inning this year is 1.93. 

Now...that's only 9 1/3 IP...but that's also about a quarter of the innings Hader has thrown ALL year. 

The most valuable thing you can have in baseball is a true ace. It's really nice to have a dominant closer...but it's not even NEARLY as valuable. 

For his career, the only innings he's been better in are the 2nd and then the 8th inning. 6th inning, he's been pretty dominant. A reliever is like an...Guard in the NFL. You don't move a pitcher(or Offensive linemen) there unless you they fail as a starter(or an OT). 
Woody has not only NOT failed as a starter, he's thrived. He's one of the two main reasons this team has a chance to win a World Series.

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, stalton said:

Trae wouldn't have been cheap. Josh Bell doesn't seem like he was coming to us. Gallo could have bounced back but probably doubtful enough to be an upgrade over anyone we had.

I really can't imagine a scenario in which Turner would have been available at this deadline. He's just too valuable to the Dodgers. He's their best player(or their most valuable IMO). 

And if you're going back to last year...well, what prospects did we have? Our system has elevated quite a bit the last year and I think we should be in a hoarding phase right now. Trying to build that farm up, get a top 5 farm system and if they can't re-sign Burnes or Woody(which I don't anticipate them doing)...I feel pretty good about the talent this team has coming up. Especially if the latest Juco kid is as good as people are saying, Gasser, Ashby and a whole bunch of arms. 

I think we'll see some trades and maneuvering with some of our prospects this off-season. Maybe we trade a Weimer/Ruiz or whoever, but I don't think we'll be trading away the type of talent needed to acquire someone like Trea Turner unless they have more team control. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Trae Turner, Josh Bell. Also, Joey Gallo would have been a cheap roll of the dice that looks like his old self after leaving NY.

Trea Turner would have nearly emptied the farm system. Josh Bell, they were interested in, but he ultimately ended up going in the Soto deal, so nothing you can do about that. And Gallo has just completely sucked this year and cost the Dodgers a nice prospect in Clayton Beeter. BTW, way too early to say he's "his old self" after 6 average games. Overall, there was not much at all available to Stearns this deadline in terms of clear offensive upgrades that wouldn't have required gutting our farm system. 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Agree with everything. However, it's not "near ace-level" with Woody, it's just plain ace level. Since 2020, he's 8th in MLB in fWar and 5th in ERA, and 6th in xFIP (Burnes is 1st in all of these categories). 

Right, totally agree.   I was just leaving some wiggle room to avoid some nitpicking/arguing about whether he's an "Ace" since he's not at like the level of peak Kershaw, Max, etc and play any semantics on the word Ace

[wallus]

6 hours ago, brewers888 said:

What exactly does it really mean to be a league average bat when around half or more of the teams are not even competitive. I think being league average may have meant something years ago when you didn't have so many uncompetitive teams but since our competition is the few teams trying to win being average at something means little to nothing.

Not a league average bat 

Spoiler

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casteni01.shtml

 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, brewers888 said:

What exactly does it really mean to be a league average bat when around half or more of the teams are not even competitive. I think being league average may have meant something years ago when you didn't have so many uncompetitive teams but since our competition is the few teams trying to win being average at something means little to nothing.

When are we talking about when there were fewer competitive teams? It seems like with 12 playoff teams, there are more competitive teams now than there's ever been.