Grade the Deadline

[nate82]

B-

The Brewers had to trade Hader either this deadline, off season or the next deadline.  So I can understand the trade and it wasn't a bad trade either.  The trade was rather fair.  

Bush I like the trade just don't like Kelly in the deal.

Rosenthal I like this trade and thought the Brewers should have signed him in the offseason.  

Only thing keeping this from a B+/A- would have been another bat.  After Bell I really didn't like anyone else for the Brewers and Mancini had already been traded for.  The Brewers needed another bat against LHP it didn't need to be an impact bat.  

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Can't believe I'm typing this because I've always been an optimist and typically see the logic in what Stearns is doing but I gotta grade this deadline as a D.

No baseball talent evaluator in their right mind would say this lineup has a snowball's chance of scoring enough runs to go deep in the playoffs. Could it happen? Sure, but you can't analytically place high odds on it. It's such a missed opportunity in the history of the organization not to be bold when they have this kind of pitching talent. They're on the side of the equation you want to be when it comes to a wealth of one and a dearth of the other when weighing a teams pitching vs hitting. It's much easier in terms of cost of prospect capital to add impactful hitting than it is for a team with offensive firepower to go out and accumulate high end pitching when it's lacking. It's in fact one of the rare times in Brewers history that the preponderance of talent was on the pitching side. And despite that present state, one in which they could go out and upgrade the easier side to do so, they indeed did nothing on that side. Stunning really.

When you factor in 3 years running of playoff appearances totaling 1 win and 6 losses while averaging 1.57 runs per game, I don't see how you roll with a lineup full of holes and expect anything to be different than the previous 3 cracks at it. Meanwhile they're one year closer to saying goodbye to Burnes and Woodruff after trading away Hader.

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

They are both left handed though. No accident since the Brewers are basically helpless against them and got nobody to help.

In Quintana's last ten appearance against the Brewers going back to 2019 he has a 5.15 ERA over 43 IP.

[LouisEly]

STL ranks by position according to B-R.com (MIL in parenthesis)

SP: 15th (18th)
RP: 26th (12th)
C : 26th (8th)
1B: 1st (17th)
2B: 3rd (12th)
3B: 1st (8th)
SS: 10th (14th)
LF: 16th (8th)
CF: 12th (23rd... but Taylor is 0.8 bWAR in 260 PAs, and STL traded their 1.2 WAR starting CF)
RF: 10th (6th)
DH: 7th (10th)

I don't recall STL addressing RP or C.  For the advantage they have at 1B, 2B, and 3B, the Brewers have the advantage at RP, C, LF.

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Man, a lot of people have serious Cardinals PTSD if they thing Quintana and Montgomery should scare anyone.

I get it.

But the idea that the Cardinals had a better deadline seems strange to me (both teams feel to me like they made marginal upgrades).

[igor67]

B- for definite longterm improvements, and short term adding bullpen depth is pretty significant. On the bat side I kind of expect Ruiz, and then Mitchell or Frelick to potentially get shots at sharing time with Taylor before the season end. Not a guarantee but there is an avenue there for adding some possible upside to that roster spot.

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, Hopper said:

According to who?  I get it if that is your opinion, but it sounds like you are stating facts.  Are you basing that on rankings?  If so, imo, rankings mean nothing.

Esteury has already made MLB, put up legit stats at AA/AAA, plays CF and has a carrying tool in his speed. I had fun following Tristan in the boxes this year, but he is pretty much LF only with a collection of average-ish tools and hasn't even made AA yet. There's not much of an objective case for Peters being a better prospect than Ruiz.

Gasser/Kelly is a little closer. Antoine might have better raw stuff, but also more reliever risk due to his injury history & command issues. Robert has a higher floor with a better shot at sticking in the rotation & maybe some sneaky upside lurking in there. If we're looking at two lefties in A+ I'll take the one with 30.5 K% | 7.4 BB% | 0.8 HR9 (3.27 FIP/3.46 xFIP) over the one with 30.7 K% | 13.4 BB% | 0.6 HR9 (3.85 FIP/4.01 xFIP).

[ctmyers]

F - Stearns managed to make both the farm system and the major league squad worse.  

[rickh150]

C-

Trading the best reliever in baseball and maybe baseball history (regular season) during a playoff push? And we have him the next season? I really cannot get past this. I’m not sure how anyone gets excited about this. Plus, two of the four traded back likely are not here next year. 

Payroll in 2023 and 2024 is a big reason why this happened. Ten plus arby guys on the roster and another 40-50 million just next year for guys on the roster. There was no room for a 16 million closer. Still, a trade could of been made in December albeit for less.

I am excited for 60 SB Ruiz, even for this year! He could be Carlos Gomez ala 2008. Tie game in 8th, we are putting in a pinch running sensation. We need a tool like this! I have always said each MLB team should have an Olympic type runner who cannot even hit on the roster come September and playoffs. A SB is key late in games, especially for a limited offense like us. A DH makes it even easier to pinch run during August.

Gasser sounds solid too. We need constant young pitchers coming through the system. Constant cheap, young starters are needed to keep cost down. Solid pick up, it looks like.

The Bush trade is a bit crazy. Old, cheap, gas throwing guy. Controlled for multiple seasons after this one. Solid middle relief this year.  However, his alcoholic past and his placement in a beer cultured city is questionable. He had people accountable for him in Texas; he had limits on his personal freedoms put in by his team stemming from his DUI and accident. Risk management says is this worth it.

How they did not add a single bat is something no one saw coming. I mean, was it THaT much of a cost to pick up a 1B/CF who could hit a bit for two months?

meh and WHAT! fit my reactions. 

 

 

 

 

 

[wibadgers23]

D+ for me. If the offense struggles to score runs down the stretch like they did last year, Stearns will never hear the end of it. Or maybe he doesn’t give a crap since he’s off to New York anyway.

[JefferyLeonard]

I will just say this...want a pulse of some of the Brewers fan base?? Mark Attanasio is getting absolutely woodshedded on twitter. People are straight up PISSED. 

[LouisEly]

11 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I will just say this...want a pulse of some of the Brewers fan base?? Mark Attanasio is getting absolutely woodshedded on twitter. People are straight up PISSED. 

Yes, Twitter is where the intellectual baseball savants reside.

[LouisEly]

One more thing about the value of the bullpen versus the value of a hitter.  Over the course of 162 games, a hitter is going to have more value.  I'd argue that in the playoffs, a reliever is just as valuable and the bullpen as a whole is more valuable.  Why?

In the playoffs the bullpen is going to throw every pitch from at least the 6th inning on, often more.  A hitter will see 15 maybe 20 pitches the whole game.  Only aces such as Burnes and Woodruff will be allowed to go through the lineup a 3rd time; 3rd/4th starters rarely will.  When hitters see a pitcher for the third time they have the advantage of seeing the pitcher multiple times and the pitcher getting tired.  In the playoffs there are far fewer instances of a starter facing a tired pitcher for a third time and many more instances of a hitter facing a fresh pitcher for the first time.  A strong, deep bullpen creates an advantage that is seen much more in the playoffs than the regular season.

Juan Soto has an OPS of 1.112 the third time he faces a starting pitcher in a game.  The second time, an .852 OPS.  The first time?  .728 OPS.  Yes, he has a .958 OPS vs. a reliever but that is all relievers (including mop-up bullpen guys he'll never face in the playoffs) and a .958 OPS is better than that 1.112 OPS seeing a starter for the 3rd time.  Put another way, Soto has an OPS of .720 in innings 1-3, 1.112 in innings 4-6, and .890 in innings 7-9.  A good, deep bullpen neutralizes that 1.112 in innings 4-6.

[wallus]

I will give it a B-. The Hader trade was actually pretty creative. I think we will be improved now and in the future. I would have been fine trading Hader in the offseason but Stearns must have felt this was the best option.

I think the bullpen needed a few more bridge pitchers and hopefully Bush and Lamet will help out Boxberger in that 6th/7th inning role. 

One thing I am a little concerned about is our future payrolls. I am hoping that Stearns wasn't told that he was unable to add any payroll which kept him out of making some additions. It isn't often that a contending team's payroll goes down after the trade deadline after making trades.

[Devinep]

D+ and even that high is due to trusting Stearns.  I hate that they didn’t get a bat, which they definitely needed. The Hader trade I was actually OK with but I expected just a bit more. 

giving up a decent prospect for Rosenthal (after already nerring 2 more MLB relievers) is insane to Me

I didn’t like Kelly being in the Bush trade either.

[jay87shot]

There are 4 parts to grade for me.

Hader trade, B. If Lamet is good this could be an easy A. But the lack of a potential middle of order potential bat drops this for me.

Bush trade, B+. It seems like our lack of pitching depth seems like we had to over pay with Kelly. If we had some decent prospects in our 20-25 pitching range weight have been able to use one of them.

Rosenthal trade, D-. I can't see Rosenthal putting in more than 10 innings. Peters is a big overpay for 10 innings of a reliever who hasnt pitched in 2 year.

The 4th is getting a lack of a bat, F. I do think that teams were paying more for quality bats compared to pitching. Drury went for Pads 6th prospect, Bell kind of went for the 18 year old pitcher (Nats gm alluded to in press conference) and maybe Voit. That being said Hosmer went for almost nothing and the Pads are eating basically his entire contract. Mancini wasn't a ton either. Also we still have 3 catchers.

Overall like a C.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I will just say this...want a pulse of some of the Brewers fan base?? Mark Attanasio is getting absolutely woodshedded on twitter. People are straight up PISSED. 

IMO that says more about twitter than anything else.

[Ro Mueller]

D+.

I simply can’t comprehend not picking up a bat to improve our chances when facing lefties. I’m fine with the bullpen restructuring and I understand the paucity of options to improve center field. But we had one tremendous (crippling?) weakness and we didn’t address it.

It feels too much like the 2014 failure to pick up a first baseman or 2021 Packers failing to care about having the worst special teams in the league.

I’ll go back to enjoying minor league action, hope the Cardinals somehow stink (jeez, I wonder why they picked up two left-handed starters; is there an opponent which struggles against lefties?) and dream about Hiura, Ruiz or some magically signed veteran right-handed hitter coming through to get us to the playoffs and beyond.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Has to be a C for me due to the variables of Gasser & Ruiz. I don't think it's out of the question Ruiz could be the "bat" we wanted so badly, of course it's not certain to happen right away. It's the best offer Stearns had, otherwise it wouldn't have happened.

I didn't like the bush deal at first, but if Kelly had rule 5 coming up I can get it.

With Rosenthals' recent inactivity I didn't like giving up Peters. That just smelled to me like a deal you can make for something less, or not make it at all.

I get the feeling they were really knocked off balance when Bell was included in the Soto deal. I loved the idea of picking up Drury but he went for SD's #6 prospect, so he was probably too expensive for our taste.

[owbc]

B
 

Nothing but praise for fully embracing the Rays’ strategy and moving Hader for a solid return while still managing to upgrade the bullpen. I really don’t want them to end this run of being a perennial playoff contender and this goes a long way towards keeping them competitive. 
 

They lose points for not getting a bat but there wasn’t an obvious move to make not an obvious hole in the lineup to fill. This is a top-10 offense so it’s not a huge need. 

[KeithStone53151]

I'm going with a solid C. I liked the hader trade a lot. Hader has blown it twice in big spots, I wonder if he's really the guy in that critical spot against the best players. I generally liked the bush trade, he's definitely at minimum our 3rd best reliever immediately. I'm skeptical of the Rosenthal trade, but I'm going to hope the FO knows what they are doing on that one. 8-10 good innings in September and maybe 3 per series in the post season would make that trade a huge W, but a lot of risk that he never even pitches this season.

I'm happy to see the brewers trying to stretch the competitive window and not simply accept that we're doomed for a rebuild when we lose burnes and woodruff. There's a real chance that other guys will step up and we can remain competitive going forward beyond 2024. This deadline was a step in that direction.

[BigDaddy1974]

D+ from me.

The Hader deal bothers me. The return is lower than I would have expected. It is more the timing of the deal. How do you deal the best RP in baseball when you are in first place.? Rogers and Lamet just don’t give me the same confidence as having Hader to slam the door, even considering his recent struggles. What kind of message are you sending to the rest of the team? This has vibes of Seattle sending Graveman packing last year when they were in contention, that team never recovered. I see the return as simply ok and the timing to just plain bad. The future flexibility it gives us probably could have been had with an off season deal. Gasser and Ruiz are intriguing prospects and that is the other positive I see. Could we have made a similar deal in December? I think so.

The Bush deal is ok. I like the fact he is controllable. I’m not concerned about the off the field issues. It’s been years since his issues. Kelley was a good prospect but I can stomach the deal.  Mathias was a good soldier and I hope he gets a shot in Texas.

The Rosenthal deal is mind boggling. Taking on 4.5 million and sending a decent prospect in Peters just makes no sense. Rosenthal is made of glass. 4.5million and a prospect for a guy who might pitch 10 innings and who’s always hurt? No way man! Just not smart.

The big issue for me was the lack of a bat or two. Also, I’m really sick of people saying the offense is pretty good because of their average runs per game. It is misleading. We aren’t playing the Cubs, Reds and Pirates come playoff time. We have to score against top level pitching, not AAAA pitchers. Do we honestly think the offense as currently constructed will be able score against the top end rotations of LAD, Atlanta, Philly, NYM, or SD. The only rotation I feel this team might be able to hit is the Cards and who knows with the lefties they brought in. Last years offense and this years offense are the worst that come to memory for a contending Brewers team. In many playoff years they were carried by their offense. Not so anymore. The Brewers offense proved to be inadequate last year in the playoffs and what have they done to improve it. Renfroe, Cutch, and Brosseau have replaced Garcia, Vogelbach, jbj, Cain, and Escobar. Knowing we struggle hitting lefties they sat and didn’t do anything. Heck, Darrin Ruf would have been a nice get for the crew, same with Drury.

In the end, this deadline showed a general lack of urgency. When is the last time Stearns and company swung big? The Yelich trade and the Cain signing, heck even bringing in Grandal showed some urgency. This team has a once in a generation pitching staff. Easily the best since the early 80’s(sorry early 90’s you were good but not as good) and we are watching it being wasted because we’d rather be pretty good for five years instead of trying to win it all the next three years.

 

[Eye Black]

I knew the Padres hadn’t been very good under the hyperaggressive AJ Preller, but I don’t think I realized just how terrible they’ve been since he took over near the end of the 2014 season. From 2015 through 2021 they had just one winning season (the shortened COVID year) and overall went 465-567 (.450 winning percentage). The most games they’ve won in a single season during the Preller tenure is 79, and they have one playoff appearance (again, the COVID year). 

By comparison the Brewers under Stearns from 2016 through 2021 went 468-403 (.537 winning percentage). They’ve had winning seasons in 4 of those 6 years, won more than 90 games twice, and made the playoffs 4 times. 

The Padres will likely be a good team for the next couple of years, but they also just significantly increased their likelihood that another rebuild is on the horizon by the later half of this decade. I do think what they’ve done is exciting from an entertainment standpoint, but we’ve also seen Preller get praised for previous trade flurries without it translating to the sort of on-field success you’d expect. The Brewers process under Stearns is certainly at the opposite end of the spectrum with a much more methodical and calculated approach, but to this point it’s produced a decent amount of winning baseball.

 

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, nate82 said:

 

The Brewers had to trade Hader either this deadline, off season or the next deadline. 

The Brewers did not ever have to trade Hader. It would have been perfectly logical and acceptable had they rode him all the way to FA and lose him for a comp pick or nothing. Hader was a high impact player and wasn't overly valuable as a trade chip. Definitely could argue his value to the team over 1.5 years is worth more than rolling the dice on a package of prospects. Not saying one route is right or wrong...both were more than acceptable ideas. Brewers rode Fielder to FA and I don't think anyone would regret doing that. 

The only time you HAVE to trade someone is when you suck, they are worth a ton in a trade, and you aren't competing the rest of their contract. For instance, riding Gomez/Lucroy to FA....yah, that makes no sense. There is nothing logical in that. 

 

[liveforoctober]

I think it's funny that 70% of Brewers fans had no idea who Kelly and Peters were 48 hours ago and now they are all outraged that we parted with them.

Also, please stop including Hosmer in the list of "bats we could have had cheap". Hosmer posted a positive  season WAR one time in San Diego and is negative again this year, adding a bat just to say you added a bat isn't the goal. If you wanted him as a bench coach though, that's cool with me.