Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[MrTPlush]

 

[Joseph Zarr]

On 4/25/2023 at 5:25 AM, homer said:

Has there been a published update on GB's cap situation? I guess they can't do that until deal is final final.

They still have the $40 Mil cap hit due to past contractual obligations pushed into this year - that can not change. Beyond this season, however, they owe him absolutely nothing. 

 

[young guns]

What are pelissero savings?

[SeaBass]

7 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If Love sucks, this Packers roster gets fun bad for the next two seasons and GB can then draft their next franchise quarterback in the next 1-2 seasons and restock an aging roster quickly - likely under new management/coaching.  However, if he's good, this roster is still good enough to build a contending team around and will likely have a pretty team-friendly longterm deal in place with Love to avoid significant salary cap problems to fill holes over the next 4-5 seasons.

At this point it's really a no-lose situation, as there were many other ways the Rodgers/Packers saga could have ended that put Green Bay in worse shape (both short and longterm outlooks).

 

 

I've said it before in other Love threads but I think they'll be drafting QBs anyway, possibly this year and maybe next year too. Even if Love shows promise this season. Taking multiple chances feels like a good strategy that has worked for them before, even if they end up trading them to other teams. The Packers seem to favor the development of young QBs as backups rather than pay for veterans.

[OldHeidelberg]

15 hours ago, SeaBass said:

I've said it before in other Love threads but I think they'll be drafting QBs anyway, possibly this year and maybe next year too. Even if Love shows promise this season. Taking multiple chances feels like a good strategy that has worked for them before, even if they end up trading them to other teams. The Packers seem to favor the development of young QBs as backups rather than pay for veterans.

If all of the almost unbelievable parallels between the careers of Rodgers and Favre continue the packers, having the extra second round pick, will take a QB in the second to cover themselves in case Love flops. Of course, it will be the new QB, maybe that guy from Tennessee. who busts like Brohm did.  :)

[Joseph Zarr]

20 hours ago, young guns said:

What are pelissero savings?

I think it's in reference to a Pelissero tweet that mentioned A-Rod and the Packers were redoing the contract and it would benefit the Packers.

 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, OldHeidelberg said:

If all of the almost unbelievable parallels between the careers of Rodgers and Favre continue the packers, having the extra second round pick, will take a QB in the second to cover themselves in case Love flops. Of course, it will be the new QB, maybe that guy from Tennessee. who busts like Brohm did.  :)

And one in the 7th round that makes a good backup/bad starter? 

[LouisEly]

Right now Over the Cap has the Packers with ~$7M in effective cap space.  That accounts for the rookie contracts for their draft picks.  Should be enough to bring in a veteran backup QB.

[CheezWizHed]

52 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Right now Over the Cap has the Packers with ~$7M in effective cap space.  That accounts for the rookie contracts for their draft picks.  Should be enough to bring in a veteran backup QB.

Unless someone really falls and surprises us... I'd prefer a vet this year.  Give Love a vet to give him some feedback and support. 

[adambr2]

Still no decision on Love's 5th year option. If they aren't willing to commit 20M or so to him for 2024, in a QB market where Daniel Jones types get 40M a year, they are not nearly as confident in him as they've implied.

[SeaBass]

Wasn't the scuttlebutt that the Packers were going to try to sign him to an extension? I'm sure they are holding off on exercising his option out of good faith. Even if they wait until tomorrow's deadline they can still work on the extension.

My impression was the Packers would try to extend him for his 5th year plus one additional season. Maybe he's trying for more years? It's possible he'd rather just play out the 5th year and enter FA as early as he can.

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Wasn't the scuttlebutt that the Packers were going to try to sign him to an extension? I'm sure they are holding off on exercising his option out of good faith. Even if they wait until tomorrow's deadline they can still work on the extension.

My impression was the Packers would try to extend him for his 5th year plus one additional season. Maybe he's trying for more years? It's possible he'd rather just play out the 5th year and enter FA as early as he can.

I haven't heard/seen any extension talk on Love. Any links to this? I'd just be curious. An extension right now doesn't make much sense to me. Would think the Packers would want to see what they have first before committing. 

Maybe a 2 year extension after this year like you suggested would make sense though? A guaranteed signing bonus of 20M or so might sound good to Love and the Packers could potentially get some cap friendly numbers in '24 and '25 if he pans out. 

Maybe that IS the delay. "Take this deal or we're going to decline your option and if you suck this year you'll be looking around for a cheap backup job somewhere next year."

In much nicer words, of course. 

[SeaBass]

I don't have a link, thought I had heard or read it somewhere. My feeling on it was like one extra year but you know maybe I'm confusing it because even the option year is an extra year. Entirely possible the extension talk was if he shows he has it during this season that he's going to be a keeper as a starter that's when the extension talk would happen. I think that's what happened with Rodgers.

[Joseph Zarr]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Still no decision on Love's 5th year option. If they aren't willing to commit 20M or so to him for 2024, in a QB market where Daniel Jones types get 40M a year, they are not nearly as confident in him as they've implied.

It seemed pretty clear in the post-draft presser, Gutekunst was indicating the Packers are going to sign him to the 5th year. He admitted $20 Mil is a lot of money but he's their quarterback. 

[patrickgpe]

On 4/27/2023 at 5:30 PM, LouisEly said:

Right now Over the Cap has the Packers with ~$7M in effective cap space.  That accounts for the rookie contracts for their draft picks.  Should be enough to bring in a veteran backup QB.

If they can get bridgewater that would be awesome, it’s kind of rough after that 

[Matt Breen]

I'll start by saying that - in all honesty - I don't think anyone knows how good Love is going to be. I don't. But I'm cautiously optimistic, but we shall see.

However, regarding Love, if the club thinks he's going to be something special, and they intend to pick up his fifth-year option (which will cost around $20m), perhaps they do look at an extension now. Maybe something with $40m in guarantees and five years. 

Structure the contract so that the team can cut bait after two years or something like that. This is a complete rough idea - but something like:

2024: $20m guaranteed
2025: $20m guaranteed
2026: $25M non-guaranteed 
2027: $25M non-guaranteed 
2028: $25M non-guaranteed 

Perhaps this is unrealistic. Maybe it's too much or too little. I honestly don't know what sort of contract it would take to sign the guy at this point of his career. 

With this structure, Love gets the security of $40m, and the knowledge he has 2-3 years to grow into his role. In exchange the Packers get him at a discount if he plays well. If not, they take a good sized hit - but not too crippling. They can cut bait after 2025 if things don't pan out.

Perhaps it would be really dumb to put up so much guaranteed money on a guy with such a small track record. And I don't know if there's any recent precedent to compare it to. Most guys who get a big deal - or even a medium sized deal - have some sort of track record before getting an extension. 

Waiting to see how the 2023 season goes before offering such an extension is probably wise - but it will certainly raise the price if Love looks good. An extension now gets him locked in at a favorable rate.

Of course, this all hinges on the Packers picking up Love's 5th year. Which is no guarantee. They may prefer to make Love prove things this year - knowing they can franchise him next year if needed. But if that happens, the price of a good quarterback rises dramatically. 

Just an idea. 

[brewcrewdue80]

It'd be foolish for the Packers to not pick up his 5th year option.  I'd think the hold up is trying to extend Love now and he's witnessing what Jackson got and well.  Love knows where he stands in terms of talent, the practices, maybe what Rodgers passed on to him where he thinks he at in the league.  The outside view is he's not proven to be a top tier or tier 2 QB thus far.  So outside people would think like Reilly 20/20/25x3 should be good enough for Love to take.  But Love shows out this year his numbers are upper 30s since that is what the rate is. Daniel Jones has 40mil per the next 4 years. Love is sitting in the catbird seat because he's got 20mil easy coming to him on that 5th year option.  All it takes for him is to look really good for 1 of the next two seasons to see twice that or more come 2026.  It's just a dream to believe Love would sign an extension that at first glance you'd think that team friendly if.  Any extension he gets the first glance has to look like whoa, whoa, whoa that's way too much!  It's their fault really to be in this situation because A. you didn't have to draft him in 2020.  B. you didn't have to extend Rodgers to the seasons where you're stuck making the 5th year option decision on Love or extending him.  C. You also let Rodgers get the win believing he could pull out 5 consecutive wins, vs benching him with 5 games to play and giving Love a real shot to prove himself on not only the 5th year option but a price point for an extension.

 

[homer]

 

[SeaBass]

 

[adambr2]

So I guess the only real difference here is that if Love is the guy, he gets an additional 2.3M in 2024 while they presumably work out an extension, and if he blows so massively that they have to move on after 2023, they save about 6.7M versus if they had just picked up the option. 

Personally if you're confident in the guy I don't know why you don't just pick up the option rather than hedge your bet like this. If they were going to go this route I would have rather giving him a little bigger signing bonus and tried to secure an extra year of control in '25.

[igor67]

I kind of like what they did, because frankly the 20 million plus the rest of the contract money sure looks like maybe I just retire with my health mostly intact money? Everyone wants to be the guy obviously, but this drops that guaranteed money quite a bit and shifts that incentive.

[Matt Breen]

Nice compromise. Gives Jordan a couple of years to show what he can do. 

[bjkrautk]

I'm assuming that, by extending the contract over 2023 and 2024, the team frees up some cap space for this year....in case they wanted to sign that Amos guy to play safety again (or some similar roster move).

[PeaveyFury]

Other reports that Darnell Savage restructured his deal over the weekend freeing up an additional $5.5 million in 2023 cap.

[Matt Breen]

13 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Other reports that Darnell Savage restructured his deal over the weekend freeing up an additional $5.5 million in 2023 cap.

I'm guessing they bring back Amos or someone similar to him (not sure who else is still on the market).