NL Central Discussion

[areacodes]

19 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

You can look at the thread yourself to see the details, but I first responded to a poster who said that, after looking at the Cubs schedule, they would be surprised if the race stays close and that the Cubs would pretty much have to sweep the 6 games against the Brewers and get some additional help to stay close. Although the word "significant" wasn't used, that comment pretty clearly indicates they think the Cubs schedule is significantly harder.

My response expressing my differing opinion stated that I don't think the Cubs schedule is any harder than the Brewers schedule.

I got two responses, one telling me that the Cubs schedule is "objectively tougher" and another that the Cubs schedule is "harder". Though they didn't use the word "significant" I wouldn't expect someone to respond that way unless they thought the difference in schedule difficulty was significant.

Fair enough regarding your original response in the game thread.  With that said, I feel like you are reading way too much into the “push back” from the other responses to justify bringing your post over from the game thread.

I don’t feel that them pointing out why their reasoning for why they feel the Cubs schedule is harder proves that they must consider the difference to be “significant” in order to respond.

[BruisedCrew]

18 minutes ago, areacodes said:

Fair enough regarding your original response in the game thread.  With that said, I feel like you are reading way too much into the “push back” from the other responses to justify bringing your post over from the game thread.

I don’t feel that them pointing out why their reasoning for why they feel the Cubs schedule is harder proves that they must consider the difference to be “significant” in order to respond.

I brought it here because the discussion about schedule strength seems more relevant to this thread than a specific game thread, and has been raised here several times in the past.

 

 

 

[StearnsFTW]

Not even a little worried barring injury.

[CheezWizHed]

Facebook "suggested" a post from a Cardinal fan commenting on Wainwrights' 8+ ERA this year.  I had so many delicious troll comments I felt like making:

• Is this the Cardinal way?
• Stay Classy!
• Isn't there an unwritten rule about this?
• Untuckem'!

But I went with:

How will Chris Carpenter explain this to his son???

And now I wait (or maybe I was banned already?)...

[Brewcrew82]

After this weekend, the Brewers will play all teams currently below .500 for the rest of the season leading into the final 3 game series against the Cubs....

[mtsportsfan]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

After this weekend, the Brewers will play all teams currently below .500 for the rest of the season leading into the final 3 game series against the Cubs....

I'd like to say that it's a big advantage , but we all know how the crew handles below  .500 teams ! 

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, mtsportsfan said:

I'd like to say that it's a big advantage , but we all know how the crew handles below  .500 teams ! 

I’d like to think playing those teams will be different in September. By then, they will have completely given up, they’ve already traded veteran guys at the deadline and are playing for a higher draft pick. We can only hope…

[mtsportsfan]

I hate saying anything nice about the scrubbies  , but man they can hit ! They generally don't have crappy AB's and they seem to more often than not take advantage of the opportunities given to them ! There pitching is close enough to us to call it a wash but there hitting is huge advantage . Hope the cool off some !

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, mtsportsfan said:

I hate saying anything nice about the scrubbies  , but man they can hit ! They generally don't have crappy AB's and they seem to more often than not take advantage of the opportunities given to them ! There pitching is close enough to us to call it a wash but there hitting is huge advantage . Hope the cool off some !

This is way too generous to the Cubs pitching. Steele is already 25 IP over his career high. Taillon hasn't been good this year and then they have 2 rookies in their rotation in Assad and Wicks.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

This is way too generous to the Cubs pitching. Steele is already 25 IP over his career high. Taillon hasn't been good this year and then they have 2 rookies in their rotation in Assad and Wicks.

Yep. It’s largely a patchwork unit right now.

[mtsportsfan]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is way too generous to the Cubs pitching. Steele is already 25 IP over his career high. Taillon hasn't been good this year and then they have 2 rookies in their rotation in Assad and Wicks.

Fair point ! Steele didn't look like the innings are going to effect him , he's not exactly a flame thrower , Hendricks is solid  and rookie pitchers are our kryptonite. The equalizer is that bats are so much better ! Unless are bats come back alive again ( would love it ) this weekend is huge !

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, mtsportsfan said:

Fair point ! Steele didn't look like the innings are going to effect him , he's not exactly a flame thrower , Hendricks is solid  and rookie pitchers are our kryptonite. The equalizer is that bats are so much better ! Unless are bats come back alive again ( would love it ) this weekend is huge !

If the point is evaluating overall team strength, I'm not sure it matters that rookie pitchers are potentially the Brewers kryptonite because the Cubs don't exclusively play the Brewers.

[brewerfan82]

On 8/30/2023 at 11:42 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

After this weekend, the Brewers will play all teams currently below .500 for the rest of the season leading into the final 3 game series against the Cubs....

 

On 8/31/2023 at 7:57 AM, mtsportsfan said:

I'd like to say that it's a big advantage , but we all know how the crew handles below  .500 teams ! 

There have been some memorable miscues against some very bad teams (*cough* A's *cough*), but overall they've actually been 36-21 with a .632 winning percentage against teams .500 or worse (compared to 38-38 against teams over .500). So this is definitely a good situation :)

[sveumrules]

22 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

There have been some memorable miscues against some very bad teams (*cough* A's *cough*), but overall they've actually been 36-21 with a .632 winning percentage against teams .500 or worse (compared to 38-38 against teams over .500). So this is definitely a good situation :)

That 38-38 record against teams over .500 is also 7th best in MLB.

Phillies are just ahead of us at 39-37.

[edfunderburk]

19 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

That 38-38 record against teams over .500 is also 7th best in MLB.

Phillies are just ahead of us at 39-37.

And we could tie them with a win tonight! 

[willie key]

Aren’t the cubs facing a team that has no pitching today because of this Covid nonsense.   What are they ******** about.    
 

I won’t get on my high horse on why mlb is doing this and it’s affecting the competition IN THE MIDDLE OF A PENNANT RACE 

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, willie key said:

Aren’t the cubs facing a team that has no pitching today because of this Covid nonsense.   What are they ******** about.    
 

I won’t get on my high horse on why mlb is doing this and it’s affecting the competition IN THE MIDDLE OF A PENNANT RACE 

 

 

Honestly I'd rather the Cubs win today to keep the Reds at arms length...better for the brewers for neither of those two teams to get white hot so they both can't make up ground as the calendar churns through september

[SF70]

11 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Honestly I'd rather the Cubs win today to keep the Reds at arms length...better for the brewers for neither of those two teams to get white hot so they both can't make up ground as the calendar churns through september

Not me.

The Cubbies are a better team than the Reds so I want another loss for the Cubbies today. The Reds offense without McLain and with EDLC not able to hit breaking-balls is a shell of what it was. 
 

Abbott is on pace for 60+ innings over his max and has to get shutdown at some point doesn’t he????

[BruisedCrew]

18 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Honestly I'd rather the Cubs win today to keep the Reds at arms length...better for the brewers for neither of those two teams to get white hot so they both can't make up ground as the calendar churns through september

IMHO, the best result from this series is the Reds winning 3 of 4 and the second best is the teams going 2-2 so that neither is on too much of a roll.  So, with the Reds up 2-1 it’s a near wash, though I will be rooting against the Cubs, as I almost always do. 

[LouisEly]

23 minutes ago, willie key said:

Aren’t the cubs facing a team that has no pitching today because of this Covid nonsense.   What are they ******** about.    
 

And McLain, India, and Votto on the IL.   They weren't on the IL when the Brewers played them six in a row around the All-Star break.

[Jopal78]

On 9/1/2023 at 5:04 PM, wiguy94 said:

This is way too generous to the Cubs pitching. Steele is already 25 IP over his career high. Taillon hasn't been good this year and then they have 2 rookies in their rotation in Assad and Wicks.

The Brewers pitchers have allowed 28 fewer runs, but there likely is not  a poster here who had the Cubs as a playoff team. Part of their success is better than expected results from Hendricks, Stroman, Steele, Assad

[BruisedCrew]

On 9/4/2023 at 6:40 AM, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers pitchers have allowed 28 fewer runs, but there likely is not  a poster here who had the Cubs as a playoff team. Part of their success is better than expected results from Hendricks, Stroman, Steele, Assad

I think the Cubs bullpen has been better than they get credit for too. I heard a comment the other day that the Cubs had the second best record in MLB when leading after seven innings. Of course that was before they lost back to back games against the Reds when they lost one run leads in the ninth. 

Still, the most common way I see people talking about bullpens is by looking at the overall ERA of the bullpen as a whole, which can be misleading because it lumps in runs given up by the worst relievers in lost causes or with huge leads with performances in true high leverage situations. 

A great record when leading after 7 innings can also reflect a team that opens up safe leads going into the late innings. That's something the Brewers have not done that often this season, especially before the 9 game winning streak in which they had a few of them.

[sveumrules]

47 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I think the Cubs bullpen has been better than they get credit for too. I heard a comment the other day that the Cubs had the second best record in MLB when leading after seven innings. Of course that was before they lost back to back games against the Reds when they lost one run leads in the ninth. 

Still, the most common way I see people talking about bullpens is by looking at the overall ERA of the bullpen as a whole, which can be misleading because it lumps in runs given up by the worst relievers in lost causes or with huge leads with performances in true high leverage situations. 

A great record when leading after 7 innings can also reflect a team that opens up safe leads going into the late innings. That's something the Brewers have not done that often this season, especially before the 9 game winning streak in which they had a few of them.

Win Probability Added takes the game context of each plate appearance into account. By that measure the Brewers bullpen is 1st in MLB at +7.43 vs the Cubs in 15th at +1.44.

There’s obviously a lot of factors playing into that, like what happens in the 5th/6th/7th to hopefully get to the 8th with a lead.

There’s also each teams difference in run distribution. As a lower scoring team, the Brewers bullpen has had more opportunity to add or subtract WPA in close games (27-13 in one run games vs 19-18 for the Cubs), where the Cubs have had more blowouts as a high scoring team (29-17 in 5+ run games vs 13-14 for the Brewers). From here we can also see the Brewers have had 69 games decided by 2 to 4 runs vs only 55 such games for the Cubs.

Another context based stat for relievers are shutdowns/meltdowns which is just any appearance resulting in 0.06 WPA in either direction.

Brewers relievers are at 141 SD (3rd most in MLB) and 60 MD (fewest in MLB).

Cubs relievers are at 108 SD (23rd) and 63 MD (3rd fewest), which also illustrates the “opportunity” gap Brewers relievers have had to add or subtract WPA by pitching in more close games.

By average Leverage Index Brewers relievers are at 1.09 (8th) vs 0.92 (29th) for the Cubs.

Or there’s always the original context based stats, wins and losses, where Brewers relievers are 31-20 vs 23-24 for the Cubs.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Win Probability Added takes the game context of each plate appearance into account. By that measure the Brewers bullpen is 1st in MLB at +7.43 vs the Cubs in 15th at +1.44.

There’s obviously a lot of factors playing into that, like what happens in the 5th/6th/7th to hopefully get to the 8th with a lead.

There’s also each teams difference in run distribution. As a lower scoring team, the Brewers bullpen has had more opportunity to add or subtract WPA in close games (27-13 in one run games vs 19-18 for the Cubs), where the Cubs have had more blowouts as a high scoring team (29-17 in 5+ run games vs 13-14 for the Brewers). From here we can also see the Brewers have had 69 games decided by 2 to 4 runs vs only 55 such games for the Cubs.

Another context based stat for relievers are shutdowns/meltdowns which is just any appearance resulting in 0.06 WPA in either direction.

Brewers relievers are at 141 SD (3rd most in MLB) and 60 MD (fewest in MLB).

Cubs relievers are at 108 SD (23rd) and 63 MD (3rd fewest), which also illustrates the “opportunity” gap Brewers relievers have had to add or subtract WPA by pitching in more close games.

By average Leverage Index Brewers relievers are at 1.09 (8th) vs 0.92 (29th) for the Cubs.

Or there’s always the original context based stats, wins and losses, where Brewers relievers are 31-20 vs 23-24 for the Cubs.

Cubs bullpen has been much better since the beginning of June. 

Since June 1st we have 3.83 bullpen WPA compared to the Cubs 3.47 WPA. 5th and 6th respectively in the MLB.

We have 88 SD (3rd most) and 39 MD (7th fewest). Cubs have 71 SD (23rd most) and 32 MD (Tied for fewest)

I just don't think their rotation will hold up the rest of the year. Steele might end up with 60+ IP more than his career high. Hendricks is good. Taillon is not good. Assad and Wicks are rookies way overperforming their peripheral numbers. I think our veteran rotation is quite a bit better than their rotation.

[BruisedCrew]

I don't think anyone would disagree that the Brewers rotation that now includes Woodruff and Miley is better than the Cubs rotation, but the question might be whether that difference is enough to overcome the fact that the Cubs offense is quite a bit better than the Brewers. The Cubs rotation might not hold up, but time is running short for them to fall apart.

The Brewers winning percentage depends a lot more on how many runs they score than who the starting pitcher is. To illustrate, the Brewers are only 15-13 in Burnes' starts. Their winning percentages are better in games started by Houser (11-6) , Peralta (16-10)  Rea (12-8), and Miley (11-8). Those are all in a fairly narrow range given the number of games.

The run support per 27 innings for the entire game started by these pitchers clearly explains a lot of this: Peralta 5.2, Houser 5.1, Rea 4.8, Burnes 4.3, Miley 3.9. The worst example of lack of run support is Teheran. The Brewers are 3-8 in his starts despite 5 quality starts, largely because of run support of 2.8 runs per game.

I'm not going to say that who is starting doesn't matter, but as shown by the feast (5 runs or more) or famine (2 runs or less) offense the Brewers have displayed the last 3 weeks. the main question for me before each game is not "who is starting?" but "Can the Brewers score at least 4 runs?''