Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[brewers888]

This team has not hit all season and has gotten virtually nothing out of first base and DH so there is no excuse for not giving Hiura a real chance down the stretch. Its pitiful that this team actually had a 3/4 of Santana and Canha in last nights lineup while Hiura is playing in AAA.

 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I think history has shown any team that makes the playoffs has a chance to win the World Series. I'm not against them making a few moves but I don't think any of the options available are going to change the odds of winning it all by much. We got here with pitching and defense and are going to have to winit with pitching and defense.

The Brewers might be the first team that values defense out of the DH position. I can't imagine a team being more hurt by the universal DH than the Brewers who continue to get nothing out of it.

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The Brewers might be the first team that values defense out of the DH position. I can't imagine a team being more hurt by the universal DH than the Brewers who continue to get nothing out of it.

Since the universal DH in 2022 the Brewers are 25th in both wRC+ (85) and WAR (-1.9).

Teams that have gotten worse DH production are WAS (85 | -2.2), SEA (80 | -3.0), CLE (73 | -3.4), KCR (74 | -3.5) and OAK (75 | -3.6).

Another five teams are at -1.0 WAR or worse: DET (92 | -1.9), CHC (90 | -1.6), NYM (96 | -1.3), COL (88 | -1.1) and TEX (90 | -1.0).

Even thee very best team in baseball ATL (94 | -0.3) and big time spenders SDP (97 | -0.3) have gotten negative DH production in the universal era.

There weren’t enough DHs to go around when there were only 15 spots, much less now that there are 30.

Yes, the Brewers have been bad at DH, but they have been far from the worst and are hardly alone in their predicament, even among contenders and some of the biggest spenders in the sport.

[igor67]

Those numbers are bad enough it makes me strongly question if the position adjustment in those WAR calculations is too high. Really as I reflect on it the number of bigtime slugging first basemen has also seemed way down post steroid-ERA as well.

[Fear The Chorizo]

15 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Those numbers are bad enough it makes me strongly question if the position adjustment in those WAR calculations is too high. Really as I reflect on it the number of bigtime slugging first basemen has also seemed way down post steroid-ERA as well.

I feel like WAR is a terrible stat to use when evaluating DH productivity, particularly with a team like the Brewers who probably get most of any positive impact at dh when they have to put Yelich or Contreras in that spot this season, and in turn have to weaken their lineup elsewhere by starting a backup in LF or catcher.  Not having a guy you can expect to be a positive offensive player at that position has a cascading effect on the rosters ability to consistently score runs.

Just stick with more traditional offensive stats to see if a team is getting production from the DH spot in the order.  OPS to me is a good indicator if a team is getting enough slugging from that spot.  

 

[sveumrules]

49 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Those numbers are bad enough it makes me strongly question if the position adjustment in those WAR calculations is too high. Really as I reflect on it the number of bigtime slugging first basemen has also seemed way down post steroid-ERA as well.

DH is probably a little harshly penalized now that there are twice as many jobs as when the calculations were originally created.

League average wRC+ for DH the last two years, with 30 jobs, has been 103 and 101.

In the most recent full seasons with only 15 jobs it was a lot easier to make up for that harsh positional adjustment with league average for AL DH coming in at 105 (2021 & 2019), 106 (2012), 109 (2016 & 2014), 110 (2015) and 111 (2018).

[shanedog19]

Hiura with another HR tonight. That’s 20 in 73 games for those who are counting.

[rickh150]

41 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

Hiura with another HR tonight. That’s 20 in 73 games for those who are counting.

.309/.397/.969

August 1.064

20 HRs…. And he missed a month with injury.

Brewers DH #s .212/.304/.632 INCLUDE 152 PAs of Yelich and Contreras at .790 OPS

[brewerfan82]

He's gonna be David Ortiz for another team starting next year, isn't he...

[Never Outhustled]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Since the universal DH in 2022 the Brewers are 25th in both wRC+ (85) and WAR (-1.9).

Teams that have gotten worse DH production are WAS (85 | -2.2), SEA (80 | -3.0), CLE (73 | -3.4), KCR (74 | -3.5) and OAK (75 | -3.6).

Another five teams are at -1.0 WAR or worse: DET (92 | -1.9), CHC (90 | -1.6), NYM (96 | -1.3), COL (88 | -1.1) and TEX (90 | -1.0).

Even thee very best team in baseball ATL (94 | -0.3) and big time spenders SDP (97 | -0.3) have gotten negative DH production in the universal era.

There weren’t enough DHs to go around when there were only 15 spots, much less now that there are 30.

Yes, the Brewers have been bad at DH, but they have been far from the worst and are hardly alone in their predicament, even among contenders and some of the biggest spenders in the sport.

Not enough DHs to go around? Only because the Brewers are leaving Hiura to rot in AAA. Sure, he had bad timing with the injury, but he better be meeting us in Texas. This team is desperate for his home runs.

[Thurston Fluff]

14 hours ago, rickh150 said:

.309/.397/.969

August 1.064

20 HRs…. And he missed a month with injury.

Brewers DH #s .212/.304/.632 INCLUDE 152 PAs of Yelich and Contreras at .790 OPS

I doubt they want to stop playing Yelich and Contreras at DH so anyone who only DH's is not going to be an everyday player. If I were to guess, and it's only a guess, is they don't want to bring Hiura up to be a part time player. 

[Never Outhustled]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I doubt they want to stop playing Yelich and Contreras at DH so anyone who only DH's is not going to be an everyday player. If I were to guess, and it's only a guess, is they don't want to bring Hiura up to be a part time player. 

Yelich hasn't hit well when DHing, and there's no reason he needs to play there. 

[Brewin]

Just now, Never Outhustled said:

Yelich hasn't hit well when DHing, and there's no reason he needs to play there. 

Other than Yelich is their best offensive threat...I'm sure taking his bat out of the lineup will help this already challenged offense score runs...SMH

[Never Outhustled]

31 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Other than Yelich is their best offensive threat...I'm sure taking his bat out of the lineup will help this already challenged offense score runs...SMH

Why are you taking his bat out of the lineup? Leave him in LF. If he can't play LF, then he needs the day off, He hasn't hit when DHing, so no big loss. 

 

I'm guessing it's tough to keep his bad back loose when DHing.

[wibadgers23]

I’m not the biggest Hiura fan but even I find it unbelievable they haven’t called him up at all this year. At this point, what do you have to lose?

[Brewin]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

Why are you taking his bat out of the lineup? Leave him in LF. If he can't play LF, then he needs the day off, He hasn't hit when DHing, so no big loss. 

 

I'm guessing it's tough to keep his bad back loose when DHing.

Your missing the point, Yelich needs to be in the lineup virtually every day. DHing versus being in LF gets him rest without losing his bat. You, any many others on this board, may disagree with using the DH in that manner, but that appears to be Counsell's preference versus a "bat-only" DH like Hiura

[Brewcrew82]

Not happening tonight we would've heard about it by now. 

[igor67]

DHing Yelich and Contreras for a bit of a breather is 2 games a week, leaving 4 to 5 for a primary DH. That's pretty much full time. No one else in the line-up is hitting well enough to justify needing DH ABs, just rest them. You'd also have that DH person available to pinch hit in those 2 games they aren't starting. If he keeps hitting this is what Rowdy will end up doing so it's not a justification for Hiura.

[Never Outhustled]

15 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Your missing the point, Yelich needs to be in the lineup virtually every day. DHing versus being in LF gets him rest without losing his bat. You, any many others on this board, may disagree with using the DH in that manner, but that appears to be Counsell's preference versus a "bat-only" DH like Hiura

He hasn't hit when DHing, so you're already losing his bat. Also, letting him hit when his back isn't loose is dangerous. 

Counsell uses him in this manner now because of the lack of options

[Outlander]

For those that had any doubt, Hiura is in the Sounds lineup tonight.

[titanrick]

Is it the case that if we bring Hiura up, we can no longer send him back down without making him available to other clubs?  I realize we did that once already - it just seems like there's a reason keeping him in AAA that has nothing to do with his production there recently.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, titanrick said:

Is it the case that if we bring Hiura up, we can no longer send him back down without making him available to other clubs?  I realize we did that once already - it just seems like there's a reason keeping him in AAA that has nothing to do with his production there recently.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, titanrick said:

Is it the case that if we bring Hiura up, we can no longer send him back down without making him available to other clubs?  I realize we did that once already - it just seems like there's a reason keeping him in AAA that has nothing to do with his production there recently.

Fellow Rick, 

This all goes way back to July of 2022 when I started a thread about Huira being treated unfairly and Adames, arguably a worse hitter than Hiura, being treated like an All Star. Last year. 2022.

Huira was sent down inexplicably in June 2022 for a month after hitting .800 OPS.. Meanwhile, Adames was struggling and still hitting #2/#3 daily (and this continued all year and really to this day amazingly…deserves less playing time and/or hitting 8th or 9th). It went on and off for a year and 12+ pages. It was locked and another thread was started in its place focusing more on Hiura’s odd journey. Now, the combo of threads is 30 +pages long, 13 months old, and the same mysterious, maddening, troublesome soap opera plays out with Hiura getting the shaft while playing an MVP AAA season (and Adames hits 5th daily at .203) while our DH spot struggles daily with rotating backup outfielders after Winker’s folly.

So 13 months ago, in my mind, this was a big enough issue and injustice (Hiura treated like a bum and Adames treated like an All Star) that it drove me to write on brewerfanatic. 13 months ago. The situation NOW is even crazier with Adames hitting 100 OPS points worse and barely hanging on to a starting spot and still hitting 3rd/4th for four months and now STILL 5th. Yet Hiura, who rightfully should have AT LEAST been given a shot to play daily several weeks ago in the rotation of count ‘em 19 DH players this season (Brewers league worst DH by far in OPS), has been tearing up AAA (sparing sveum the stats), not committing errors, and cutting down his K rate.

Why this topic isn’t a slam dunk, of course bring up Hiura, among all Brewers fans is a huge question mark to me.
 

Now more than ever.

[Ro Mueller]

6 hours ago, titanrick said:

Is it the case that if we bring Hiura up, we can no longer send him back down without making him available to other clubs?  I realize we did that once already - it just seems like there's a reason keeping him in AAA that has nothing to do with his production there recently.

Hiura is below Santana, Tellez and Canha in the MLB pecking order, after unfortunately blowing his roster spot in Spring Training which caused the team to reluctantly keep Voit.

If we covet Hiura’s offense enough to promote him, it would likely require a DFA of Anderson or Taylor (both solid defenders) or option of Wiemer (for service time manipulation purposes). But I assume any of those moves would infuriate Counsell.

Yes, if we promote Hiura, we have no easy way of ever sending him down again. We inexplicably burned his final option near the 2022 trade deadline, then DFA’d him early this year. No MLB team picked up his guaranteed $2.2m salary, so we exercised a one-time right to send him to the minors. If we promote again, then DFA again, any other team could claim him, but even if he goes unclaimed he’d have the right to reject the assignment to the minors and become a free agent.

Oddly, we believe there’s a special provision which allows us to keep him on his minor league contract for one more year (since he has not yet burned through 7 minor league seasons) at half his 2023 salary. So we can basically do nothing and watch him return for $1.1m next year (though perhaps another team could claim in the Rule 5 Draft(?) - I’m not sure).

Truth be told, he’s not diminished his value over the last 9 months, in my opinion, since the time that we guaranteed the $2.2m salary. He’s one of the best hitters in AAA. And he’s played a fair amount of mediocre first base and left field, as expected. So if he was worth $2.2m last winter, he must definitely be worth $1.1m for 2024.

But if we promote him to the Majors for this stretch run (e.g. when MLB active rosters expand on September 1), I’m guessing that would shift him into another round of offseason arbitration at higher cost for 2024. At least that’s my understanding.

What’s the right thing to do? Well, get his bat on the MLB roster of course.

How should we do it? Maybe we need to restructure his contract to agree a 2024 salary (e.g. $1.1m guaranteed, with another $0.3m incentives), then immediately promote him. Option Wiemer for 13 days if we have to (or DFA Taylor or Anderson or put one of them on the injured list), now that Counsell is finally comfortable enough to play Frelick in center field.

[Never Outhustled]

DFAing Anderson is a no brainer at this point. His positional versatility is unnecessary with the addition of Cahna. Anderson hasn't hit in years. It was a worthwhile gamble to sign him, but it failed and its time to cut bait.