How Will The Bonus Pool Be Split (The Signing Thread)

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm actually really excited to see Wilken, certainly a bit under slot but also has the power tool that if he can (per scouting reports) develop an opposite field approach for those pitches on the outer part of the plate, and with his arm, he could be a big difference maker down the line too.

Definitely a different feel to EBJ who let's be honest, never really had a standout tool that screamed first rounder

Maybe not quite as loud as Wilken’s power, but EBJ has speed (46 SB / 5 CS as a pro) and strike zone judgement (more BBs than Ks in college, around 11% BB and 17% K as a pro) as pretty loud tools. Also profiles as a plus defender up the middle.

But yeah, pretty much opposite ends of the player type spectrum.

Wilken has to hit, or that’s a wrap. EBJ has more pathways to viability with his edge in overall athleticism giving him a more well rounded profile.

[Playing Catch]

24 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm actually really excited to see Wilken, certainly a bit under slot but also has the power tool that if he can (per scouting reports) develop an opposite field approach for those pitches on the outer part of the plate, and with his arm, he could be a big difference maker down the line too.

Definitely a different feel to EBJ who let's be honest, never really had a standout tool that screamed first rounder

I'm the opposite. I like EBJ more than Wilken. I think EBJ's first round skillset is about OBP, barrels and the ability to stay at SS. But talk me into it; I WANT to believe! Who are some recent vintage NCAA power bats that have made it to MLB?

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, sveumrules said:

Maybe not quite as loud as Wilken’s power, but EBJ has speed (46 SB / 5 CS as a pro) and strike zone judgement (more BBs than Ks in college, around 11% BB and 17% K as a pro) as pretty loud tools. Also profiles as a plus defender up the middle.

But yeah, pretty much opposite ends of the player type spectrum.

Wilken has to hit, or that’s a wrap. EBJ has more pathways to viability with his edge in overall athleticism giving him a more well rounded profile.

Absolutely on the defensive front, but isn't EBJ's arm a question for long term short stop? And might grade out better at second base (albeit a very effective one)?

It's certainly interesting, but if you gave me either for a first round draft pick, I'd go Wilken and not bat an eyelid (although I do like people who can make an impact rather than just "get by" at the major league level)

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Absolutely on the defensive front, but isn't EBJ's arm a question for long term short stop? And might grade out better at second base (albeit a very effective one)?

It's certainly interesting, but if you gave me either for a first round draft pick, I'd go Wilken and not bat an eyelid (although I do like people who can make an impact rather than just "get by" at the major league level)

Yeah, think the scouting reports on his defense are that he has all the actions for SS, just maybe not the arm so likely to end up plus at 2B.

Haven't voted in the poll yet, have my top 9 pretty set and am going back & forth between Wilken and EBJ for #10.

Think I like EBJ’s whole package more, but it’s also a profile that is a little more prevalent throughout the system, so will prolly give the edge to Brock since his power profile is more scarce on the farm.

Similar situation to Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer and Ruiz last year where they were all probably in the same general range of value, but I put Wiemer at the top of the tier as the only one with power in the profile.

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I'm the opposite. I like EBJ more than Wilken. I think EBJ's first round skillset is about OBP, barrels and the ability to stay at SS. But talk me into it; I WANT to believe! Who are some recent vintage NCAA power bats that have made it to MLB?

Making me do some research!

 

Brent Rooker

Keston Hiura

Spencer Torkelson

Adley Rutschman

Pete Alonso

Josh Jung

 

Obviously a lil hit or miss, but potential for big bats is there! That's just a cursory glance, other prospect huggers will know far more tbf

 

[Spencer Michaelis]

 

31 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Absolutely on the defensive front, but isn't EBJ's arm a question for long term short stop? And might grade out better at second base (albeit a very effective one)?

It's certainly interesting, but if you gave me either for a first round draft pick, I'd go Wilken and not bat an eyelid (although I do like people who can make an impact rather than just "get by" at the major league level)

 

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, think the scouting reports on his defense are that he has all the actions for SS, just maybe not the arm so likely to end up plus at 2B.

Haven't voted in the poll yet, have my top 9 pretty set and am going back & forth between Wilken and EBJ for #10.

Think I like EBJ’s whole package more, but it’s also a profile that is a little more prevalent throughout the system, so will prolly give the edge to Brock since his power profile is more scarce on the farm.

Similar situation to Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer and Ruiz last year where they were all probably in the same general range of value, but I put Wiemer at the top of the tier as the only one with power in the profile.

I think EBJ's arm is a lot stronger than the pre-draft reports indicated. I'd put it as above average and more than capable of handling short. He also gets rid of it very quickly which helps it play up even further. 

Brown was actually my number one choice for the Brewers pick last year, so I obviously am a bit biased. But I think there's a legit starting shortstop in there. He's got to get healthy and hopefully start avoiding these freak injuries he's had. If you exclude his awful start in April (his first real action with his new stance/load), he was slashing .316/.404/.421 and only 26 K's with 18 BB's. Also was 19/21 on SB attempts in that time (27/30 overall). The defense is legit, and like I said, I think the arm is plenty good to handle short too.

[wibadgers23]

No official confirmation yet but 3rd rounder Bitonti might have signed. He’s headed to Arizona.

[JCREW]

42 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

No official confirmation yet but 3rd rounder Bitonti might have signed. He’s headed to Arizona.

Do you have a link for that?

[wibadgers23]

34 minutes ago, JCREW said:

Do you have a link for that?

Again, just pure speculation but seems plausible.

 

[JCREW]

23 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Again, just pure speculation but seems plausible.

Thanks for sharing. That’s what I meant by link. I figured something in the socials. 

[sfl2hnq17]

FWIW, both Bitonti and Pratt have “Brewers” listed on their IG profiles. Take that with a grain of salt.

[JDBrewCrew]

Carlos Collazo

 

@CarlosACollazo

·

18m

 

The #Brewers signed fourth rounder Jason Woodward to a $247,500 deal. Slot value for the 119th pick is $557,900.

[brewmann04]

More money saved 

[BrewerFan]

On 7/17/2023 at 8:15 PM, dtet said:

It's a safer strategy to be sure. You're sacrificing potential upside for the offer in hand, though you still have the ability to negotiate another deal (possibly better) in case the Brewers pass at the pick. You're also saving your client potential anxiety from waiting and maybe your client wants to develop in the Brewers org. Looking at the specific numbers, Knoth basically got pick 43 money at pick 33. But there are also teams after 43 that could've offered $2m+ as an overslot deal as well. And the Brewers picked again at 54 ($1.5461m) and likely didn't think he would be there. As an advisor, you have to feel pretty comfortable that the other teams don't value your client as highly as the Brewers, difficult to know in the heat of the draft. The risk/reward and the math have to work (often the case at the top of the draft).

It's a bit like getting an offer for your house and deciding to take it, instead of listing it on the market.

In general, HS players usually want to sign overslot deals after the first 20 picks or so. Of course, there are only so many overslot deals to be had.

 

 

 

I think both sides have a LOT of the information before hand. Not exact figures, but pretty good ideas of what they're going to get, what they want, etc...I don't think the Brewers are taking a guy in Rd1 unless they know they can get him under slot, or conversely drafting Pratt if they have no idea how much he's gonna want in bonus money. 

[JCREW]

With four signed, we are $1.796M under slot.

We have $5.23M plus the overage percentage that we can spend on the remainder of the top 11 picks. 

Round (Overall)	Name	HS/NCAA/CC	Position	Slot Value	Signing Bonus
1 (18)	Brock Wilken	NCAA	3B	$4,021,400	$3,150,000
CB-A (33)	Josh Knoth	HS	RHP	$2,543,800	$2,000,000
2 (54)	Mike Boeve	NCAA	1B/3B	$1,546,100
3 (87)	Eric Bitonti	HS	SS/3B	$796,200
4 (119)	Jason Woodward	NCAA	RHP	$557,900	$247,500
5 (155)	Ryan Birchard	CC	RHP	$392,700	$322,500
6 (182)	Cooper Pratt	HS	SS	$309,900
7 (212)	Tate Kuehner	NCAA	LHP	$242,400
8 (242)	Craig Yoho	NCAA	RHP	$196,700
9 (272)	Mark Manfredi	NCAA	LHP	$176,700
10 (302)	Morris Austin	NCAA	RHP	$166,800
11 (332)	Bishop Letson	HS	RHP
12 (362)	Bjorn Johnson	HS	LHP
13 (392)	Brett Wichrowski	NCAA	RHP
14 (422)	Hayden Robinson	HS	RHP
15 (452)	Josh Adamczewski	HS	SS
16 (482)	Josh Timmerman	NCAA	RHP
17 (512)	Jacob Gholston	HS	RHP		Did not sign
18 (542)	Dylan Watts	CC	RHP
19 (572)	Isaac Morton	HS	RHP
20 (602)	Justin Chambers	HS	LHP

[Jake McKibbin]

@Smichaelis9was it you mentioned on MKE tailgate about estimated figures for Bitonti and Pratt? Can you remember what they were?

[Spencer Michaelis]

3 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

@Smichaelis9was it you mentioned on MKE tailgate about estimated figures for Bitonti and Pratt? Can you remember what they were?

I think it was Ryan, though I can't remember what he said. I have mainly seen between $2-2.5 million for both. There were rumors that Bitonti was asking for $3 million at one point, but my guess would be right around $2 million apiece.

[JDBrewCrew]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jim Callis

@jimcallisMLB·

8m

2nd-rder Mike Boeve signs w/@Brewers for $1.25 million (pick 54 value = $1,546,100).

@OmahaBSB 3B, passes former All-Star Bruce Benedict as highest pick in school history, batted .401 w/just 9 K in 47 G, contact over power approach.

@MLBDraft

[markedman5]

Another 300k saved

 

[ctmyers]

It doesn't look likely that both Bitoni and Pratt can be signed at $2 million a piece now.  If picks 7, 8, 9 and 10 all sign for $100k each, Bitoni and Pratt will need to split around 3.6 million.  

[wiguy94]

15 minutes ago, ctmyers said:

It doesn't look likely that both Bitoni and Pratt can be signed at $2 million a piece now.  If picks 7, 8, 9 and 10 all sign for $100k each, Bitoni and Pratt will need to split around 3.6 million.  

I very much doubt picks 7-10 are getting $100K each.

[StearnsFTW]

29 minutes ago, ctmyers said:

It doesn't look likely that both Bitoni and Pratt can be signed at $2 million a piece now.  If picks 7, 8, 9 and 10 all sign for $100k each, Bitoni and Pratt will need to split around 3.6 million.  

Rough math is that the Brewers have about $5.75MM left including the 4.99% adder.

7-10 will probably get around 200k of that (I'm guessing).  $2MM each for Bitonti and Pratt leaves about $1.5MM for anyone else, which, to me, seems very likely to get a later guy signed.

Anyone out there please feel free to point out anything that's wrong here.

 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Rough math is that the Brewers have about $5.75MM left including the 4.99% adder.

7-10 will probably get around 200k of that (I'm guessing).  $2MM each for Bitonti and Pratt leaves about $1.5MM for anyone else, which, to me, seems very likely to get a later guy signed.

Anyone out there please feel free to point out anything that's wrong here.

Brewers have $4,528,130 left counting the 5% overage. Think you must not have seen Boeve signed for $1.2M because that's pretty much the number your rough math is off.

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers have $4,528,130 left counting the 5% overage. Think you must not have seen Boeve signed for $1.2M because that's pretty much the number your rough math is off.

Yeah, I redid it and your number is right.  I had Boeve in there, I just missed a 1 somewhere.  That obviously will likely preclude any high-profile 11-20 signings unless those guys take less than $2MM each.

 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers have $4,528,130 left counting the 5% overage. Think you must not have seen Boeve signed for $1.2M because that's pretty much the number your rough math is off.

Assuming the total for picks 7-10 is $200K (which I think is pretty accurate), that leaves $4.3M to split between Bitonti and Pratt.