Article: Is It Time To Pull The Plug On Peguero In The Late Innings?

[Harold Hutchison]

Has the time come to rearrange bullpen roles, at least temporarily?

Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today

Following the surrender of back-to-back home runs in the seventh inning of what became an eventual 7-3 loss to the Colorado Rockies, some Brewers fans are wondering why Elvis Peguero is still being sent out to handle late innings when there is a narrow lead and Abner Uribe is in Milwaukee.

The Peguero Track Record
On the one hand, Peguero has been quite solid in the bullpen for the Crew this season. He is 2-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 46 2/3 innings pitched with 18 walks and 41 strikeouts. He has secured one save and 15 “holds” along the way. That’s not a horrible performance, and Peguero is relatively cheap through 2026, and doesn’t become a free agent until three years after that.

On the other hand, there are four blown saves, three of which have come since July 22, two came in the span of eight days. The last two blown saves, against the Nationals on July 31 and the Rockies Tuesday, arguably have made it harder for the Crew to maintain their lead in the National League Central over the Cubs and Reds.

This isn’t to say Peguero is a liability, far from it. He was quite good through July 21. But the 17-day stretch from July 23 to August 8 has been far different. In eight appearances, he has pitched 7 2/3 innings, given up eight runs (all earned). He has allowed three home runs and blown three saves, all of which led to losses.

To put some more perspective, prior to that 17-day stretch, he had only given up one home run and 13 runs (12 earned). This stretch has shown that Peguero may need to either make some adjustments in a lower-leverage role or to have a mental “reset” after a rough stretch.

It’s not like the Brewers don’t have other options for the seventh inning. One of these options, the aforementioned Abner Uribe, would arguably be an investment in the team’s long-term future. Let’s look through them really quick.

Abner Uribe 
Uribe is probably the top candidate to bump Peguero, either directly in the seventh inning, or by sliding Joel Payamps from the eighth inning to the seventh. Uribe has been a Brewer Fanatic Top 20 prospect with electric stuff that points to a potential future as an MLB closer. He has also been red-hot in the majors, posting a 1.54 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP so far. If Uribe is a future closer, he should be working high-leverage situations at the MLB level – and a one-run game against the Nationals is not a bad place for him to start doing so.

There is another benefit to having Uribe take over a late-inning role, whether by directly replacing Peguero or bumping Payamps to the seventh. It could enable the Brewers to consider dealing Devin Williams in future seasons, allowing Uribe to take over the ninth inning. The return on Josh Hader wasn’t overwhelming, but dealing Williams could bring a nice package of prospects (or MLB players) in return, just as the team ultimately turned Hader into William Contreras and Robert Gasser .

Hoby Milner
Milner has not flashed the overpowering stuff that Uribe has, but over the entire 2023 season, he’s posted a 2.17 ERA in 52 appearances covering 45 2/3 innings pitched. That is a remarkable track record of consistency. If a one-run lead was too tight for the rookie, Milner certainly has made the case that he should be the primary guy in the seventh inning when a starter doesn’t handle it.

Andrew Chafln
Yes, Chafin struggled as well Tuesday against the Rockies, but at the same time, the Brewers dealt Peter Strzelecki for him at the deadline. If you’re going to deal a relatively cheap reliever with multiple years of control for another reliever, then perhaps that reliever should be put in the high-leverage spot.

Overview
Elvis Peguero has been a valuable pickup for the Brewers from the Hunter Renfroe trade. His recent rough patch is something that can happen to any reliever (just look at Josh Hader in 2022), but he could rebound and be solid. That said, if the Brewers are looking for a title, it may be time for the team to either go with the steady Hoby Milner or future closer Abner Uribe – at least for the time being.

If you were in charge, how would you handle this situation? 

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[Outlander]

I think there is decent evidence that Peguero shouldn't pitch in back to back games on a regular basis so wouldn't automatically give him the 7th. He has given 8 runs in 2.2 innings of work the last three times he has pitched the second game back to back.

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I think there is decent evidence that Peguero shouldn't pitch in back to back games on a regular basis so wouldn't automatically give him the 7th. He has given 8 runs in 2.2 innings of work the last three times he has pitched the second game back to back.

This is such a nebulous thing about relievers. I can never figure out if back-to-back is really that damaging to some guys or if the sample size is so small that we can't determine anything real about it.

But I think the reality of the situation is that Peguero is going to need to have his usage altered if he blows up again in the near future.

[Team Canada]

Uribe seems like the obvious solution, and I think Counsell is starting to go that direction already. There is zero chance though, that Uribe moves into the 8th and bumps Payamps to the 7th.

[wiguy94]

None of Peguero, Chafin, Uribe should be pitching back to back days. Peguero and Chafin have been terrible on 0 rest and Uribe isn’t used to it. 
 

6th and 7th innings should be pitched by Peguero, Chafin, Uribe, Milner based on rest/matchup. Not locked in inning role for any of them.

[jay87shot]

I'd put Milner in the 7th role when down 1 or even and Uribe when down 2 or 3 or down 1. If Uribe does well then come September I'd just turn over the 7th to him.

[Brewcrew82]

Peguero’s stuff is just a little too hittable sometimes. Uribe’s is virtually unhittable. I’d still use Pegeuro in some high-leverage, but the 7th inning should go to Uribe. 

[markedman5]

I’d stick with Elvis……..he’s had some hiccups but I still trust him more then the other guys…….with possible exception of Hoby.

Hoby and Uribe will also get high leverage opportunities…….as they should.
 

We are going to need them all.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll go against the grain here and say I don't really like having set roles in the bullpen. I kinda think you want to have your relievers power ranked to a degree, but also making sure they don't pitch too much or too little. As much as I'm heavily heavily critical of CC, one of his greatest strengths is balancing reliever usage. He may be the best in MLB at this. Our reliever situation right now is quite good. I think Williams is the closer(the only set role i really don't mind) and Payamps is the clear next best relief option. Beyond him, I view Peguero, Chafin, Uribe, Milner as all fairly equal and all very good options right now. I would be comfortable with any of them pitching the 7th, or the 8th if one of Williams/Payamps isn't available or could use a day off. I think this article overexaggerates a bit how he's pitched over the last few weeks...he's allowed runs 3 of his last 8 outings, and in all 3 cases he was pitching back to back. With the options we have and upcoming days off, I think you probably just avoid pitching him back to back for a bit. I'm not super concerned about this small sample, unless there's a change in his stuff from a month ago I think you continue to roll him as one of the good options.

On that note, what a problem to have where Wilson is a super solid long reliever...we have one mop up guy(currently mejia I think)...and then 6 true quality arms that can all pitch important spots effectively. This can get even better if Ashby comes back and then if/when 1 starter shifts to relief for potential postseason baseball.

[BruisedCrew]

This is interesting message board banter, but IMHO it’s a little pointless because the circumstances can change tomorrow based on what happens tonight. Or it can change by Sunday if several pitchers are used both today and tomorrow.

The opinions expressed here will change quickly if the alternatives don’t have immediate success. 

If the Brewers need a reliever in the 7th inning tonight with a small lead or a tie, I would use someone else, like Milner (if he hasn’t been used earlier) or Uribe. But I wouldn’t consider it “pulling the plug” on Peguero, even temporarily. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

None of Peguero, Chafin, Uribe should be pitching back to back days. Peguero and Chafin have been terrible on 0 rest and Uribe isn’t used to it. 
 

6th and 7th innings should be pitched by Peguero, Chafin, Uribe, Milner based on rest/matchup. Not locked in inning role for any of them.

I wouldn't totally dismiss using Peguero if he had an 8-10 pitch outing the day before, but otherwise this makes the most sense to me.

We're back to pretty much the same starting rotation we hoped for in April. Getting some 7 inning starts mixed in from here on out would solve a lot.

[KeithStone53151]

34 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I wouldn't totally dismiss using Peguero if he had an 8-10 pitch outing the day before, but otherwise this makes the most sense to me.

We're back to pretty much the same starting rotation we hoped for in April. Getting some 7 inning starts mixed in from here on out would solve a lot.

I think using Peguero/Uribe/Chafin/Milner back to back can mostly be avoided as long as we don't have a starter implosion. Even a 5 inning start, we probably can avoid back to backs for a bit with the schedule.

[AKCheesehead]

The day after Elvis forgot about Elly on 3rd, he pitched like a man on a mission in the 7th to help shut down the Reds.  But overall I agree with wiguy. 

[rickh150]

Uribe and Elvis could pitch in that 5th/6th inning closer role that Jeffress used to hold. I am not for a 7th inning guy when matchups could mean a lefty is needed.

[sveumrules]

Hey @Brock Beauchamp, for some reason this article keeps coming up first on my Unread Content feed, even though I've read it now, I swear!!

Maybe something in the article settings or something?

 

 

[Austin Tatious]

I’d keep Payamps where he is until he proves otherwise.  He wasn’t a good pickup, he was a great pickup.  Very valuable pitcher.  

But I agree about Uribe moving ahead of Pegeuro in terms of leverage opportunities.  Pegeuro looks shaky even when he’s getting out of situations.  He’s faltering with his command.  He is apt to pull a pitch way out of his intent.  

Uribe on the other hand has tremendous upside.  I was watching the Chisox feed over the weekend and they were absolutely mesmerized by his stuff.  We are talking about Jason Benetti and Steve Stone, not two scrubs.  They were effusive in their praise of Uribe.  It’s not a little secret among Brewer prospect nerds.   His stuff demands attention.