Counsell to Cubs

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Is there any data that shows when teams aren't trying to compete? Because I don't know if such data exists. This isn't the NBA, I don't usually see teams trying to throw games. Even the sadder years of Brewers baseball since 2007, I never felt like the guys were out there trying to lose and not caring. 

Yea there's really no way to quantify it to 'prove' anything in a topic like that either way.   It's mostly eye test and maybe you could look at general record say the last 1-2 months if you wanted to try to find something.   But yea there was a year or two in there where they gave us problems when totally out of it late in the year.   

The OP was basically just saying it seemed like his teams still cared/tried and gave effort all year even though they had no shot at winning.  sure there's no way to 'prove' it as teams that bad can't really win much no matter what.  But folks like us who've followed baseball forever know there is plenty of teams that are just checked out the last few weeks/month.  It would generally be a good thing if a manager over an intentionally losing team kept his team bought in and caring the whole time anyway.  I'm not one who bashes CCs in game stuff since no one can get every BP move right but even the biggest haters on him probably have to accept his biggest strength has seeming being able to keep a great locker room attitude/culture in spite of tons of turnover in players year after year.   If someone with more access (like those in charge of hiring for this) than idiots like us on the internet did their digging and found out the same was true about Mattingly that would be a good thing. 

[sveumrules]

Got a good chuckle out of this in Ben Clemens chat at FanGraphs today…

Sanford: Where would you have ranked Craig Counsell’s managerial services in the top 50?

Ben Clemens: Haha hmmmmmmm

Ben Clemens: I think I’d rather add Counsell to my team than Wacha, so at least in the top 25

[CheezWizHed]

6 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Ross taking the high road

 

To be fair, taking the high road disqualifies him for the Cubs... Cardinals too. 😝

[rickh150]

The kid fan Craig Counsell would be booing the now smug Cubs manager Craig Counsell.

[JohnBriggs12]

On 11/7/2023 at 11:09 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

IMO it's much easier to maintain a 90ish win average in MLB when you have 3 divisions per league, particularly if you play in a central division that constantly has at least two teams fighting to lose 100x a year.

Those 80s Brewers teams were doing it in the AL east and had HOFers on their rosters.  if they had a similar playoff format then to what they do now I'd wager there would be at least 1 WS title in brewer history - they had some damn good teams not make the playoffs who could've went on a title run.

It's been a good run of winning  Brewer teams lately, but the early 80s brewer teams were better.

The teams from 78-83 were the best in team history.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

The teams from 78-83 were the best in team history.

I’m not old enough to remember those teams first hand, but it’s pretty tight by raw winning percentage.

1978-83: 518-400 (.564 W%)
2018-23: 487-384 (.559 W%)

1978-83 played the same 12 teams for all 918 of those games with a much tighter payroll spread league wide. Didn’t the whole collusion scandal go on during this time?

2018-23 played much more varied competition while facing a greater payroll disparity.

They definitely got to those very similar winning percentages in drastically different ways.

1978-83 pitchers posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 104 FIP- (21st) compared to a 91 ERA- (5th) and 95 FIP- (5th) for 2018-23.

On the position player side 1978-83 came in at 114 wRC+ (1st) and -57.7 DEF (16th) compared to a 99 wRC+ (16th) and +107.5 DEF (1st) for 2018-23.

[Underachiever]

15 hours ago, sveumrules said:

I’m not old enough to remember those teams first hand, but it’s pretty tight by raw winning percentage.

 

You have the powder blue tux in your profile pic, and try to tell us you aren't old enough to remember those teams? Color me skeptical. LOL. I would have bet my powder blue leisure suit that we were a similar age.

[sveumrules]

24 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

You have the powder blue tux in your profile pic, and try to tell us you aren't old enough to remember those teams? Color me skeptical. LOL. I would have bet my powder blue leisure suit that we were a similar age.

That’s Sveumer’s senior picture stolen from the internet.

My earliest Brewers specific memory is pulling an Earnie Riles from my first ever pack of 1986 Topps baseball cards.

[homer]

 

 

[TURBO]

https://fb.watch/oi4Y6Vf-59/

Yuk

[Fear The Chorizo]

50 minutes ago, TURBO said:

https://fb.watch/oi4Y6Vf-59/

Yuk

Wish guys would just be honest and say "they gave me a crapload of $$$$ and that's why I'm here".

If by "momentum", CC means "as long as they close to double their current payroll to fill a bunch of holes last season's roster has we'll at least have a better shot to make the playoffs next year", then I agree with him.

[Matt Breen]

I think it was pretty clear that Counsell saw a better situation in Chicago than Milwaukee. Higher payroll, room for growth, decent farm system, management he felt he could trust. 

So much just comes down to resources. He literally talked about that fact. That includes his salary, but also I'm guessing he got tired of the same dance each year as we fought to retain or acquire players. 

He talked about how 'healthy' the Cubs franchise is at this time. I'm wondering if he was skeptical going forward of Milwaukee's ability to compete. Just a thought.

As for his comments that he 'underestimated' fan reaction to the move - that's crap. He's not stupid. He had to completely know what this would cause. 

[Jopal78]

21 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I think it was pretty clear that Counsell saw a better situation in Chicago than Milwaukee. Higher payroll, room for growth, decent farm system, management he felt he could trust. 

So much just comes down to resources. He literally talked about that fact. That includes his salary, but also I'm guessing he got tired of the same dance each year as we fought to retain or acquire players. 

He talked about how 'healthy' the Cubs franchise is at this time. I'm wondering if he was skeptical going forward of Milwaukee's ability to compete. Just a thought.

As for his comments that he 'underestimated' fan reaction to the move - that's crap. He's not stupid. He had to completely know what this would cause. 

Time will tell if the Cubs job is a better situation or not.  I think even Counsell believes the Brewers are reaching the end of this success cycle (wants a different challenge), and he correctly assumed he could make more money elsewhere, I don’t think the uniform or brand as he put it makes a bit of difference where he performs his work.
 

[Fear The Chorizo]

43 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

I think it was pretty clear that Counsell saw a better situation in Chicago than Milwaukee. Higher payroll, room for growth, decent farm system, management he felt he could trust. 

So much just comes down to resources. He literally talked about that fact. That includes his salary, but also I'm guessing he got tired of the same dance each year as we fought to retain or acquire players. 

He talked about how 'healthy' the Cubs franchise is at this time. I'm wondering if he was skeptical going forward of Milwaukee's ability to compete. Just a thought.

As for his comments that he 'underestimated' fan reaction to the move - that's crap. He's not stupid. He had to completely know what this would cause. 

Did CC miss the fact the Cubs ran out of resources with their last core of homegrown talent and bloated veteran FA contracts that led to a more abrupt teardown than anything the Brewers did after Fielder left, and their journey over the past 3-4 seasons in the land of rebuilding was a prime reason why Milwaukee's current window to be a consistent contender for the division opened up? 

The 2023 Cubs improved their record by 9 wins last season from 2022, but they still missed the playoffs last season.  If they want their 2023 opening day starter or best offensive hitter from that team to be Cubs in 2024 they're going to need to pay them substantially more to stick around, because they opted out.  I just don't see how they're going to go from a borderline 0.500 team to WS contender this offseason with the core of players they've already got on the payroll - and the Brewers have a better group of prospects/young talent in their system than what the Cubs have.

[TURBO]

14 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Did CC miss the fact the Cubs ran out of resources with their last core of homegrown talent and bloated veteran FA contracts that led to a more abrupt teardown than anything the Brewers did after Fielder left, and their journey over the past 3-4 seasons in the land of rebuilding was a prime reason why Milwaukee's current window to be a consistent contender for the division opened up? 

The 2023 Cubs improved their record by 9 wins last season from 2022, but they still missed the playoffs last season.  If they want their 2023 opening day starter or best offensive hitter from that team to be Cubs in 2024 they're going to need to pay them substantially more to stick around, because they opted out.  I just don't see how they're going to go from a borderline 0.500 team to WS contender this offseason with the core of players they've already got on the payroll - and the Brewers have a better group of prospects/young talent in their system than what the Cubs have.

All they have to do is be better than us (or the Cardinals) in 2024 to make the playoffs.  They can spend some money, they have it, and they now have our manager.

I mean, we already know we aren't going to spend the money to land a big time free agent.  They can do just that, probably several times actually.

Honestly, we probably win a few less games than last year, and they have the opportunity to win a few more, maybe even a lot more if they play their cards right.  Let's say we lose 4 or 5 more than last year (I actually think we lose more like 10 than last year), and they win 4 or 5 more than last year.  That puts them right in the thick of things.

I want nothing more than to keep Counsell out of the playoffs next season, but how that plays out, we are going to have to watch and see.

[Jopal78]

29 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Did CC miss the fact the Cubs ran out of resources with their last core of homegrown talent and bloated veteran FA contracts that led to a more abrupt teardown than anything the Brewers did after Fielder left, and their journey over the past 3-4 seasons in the land of rebuilding was a prime reason why Milwaukee's current window to be a consistent contender for the division opened up? 

The 2023 Cubs improved their record by 9 wins last season from 2022, but they still missed the playoffs last season.  If they want their 2023 opening day starter or best offensive hitter from that team to be Cubs in 2024 they're going to need to pay them substantially more to stick around, because they opted out.  I just don't see how they're going to go from a borderline 0.500 team to WS contender this offseason with the core of players they've already got on the payroll - and the Brewers have a better group of prospects/young talent in their system than what the Cubs have.

Believe it or not, the Cubs Pythagorean was exactly the same as the Brewers (90-72) so it appears they hit a patch of bad luck whereas the Brewers were a touch lucky at 92 wins.

From a talent standpoint, the Cubs have fewer question marks than the Brewers. They return their ace Steele, Javier Assad both of whom are pre arbitration eligible. Azolay as closer  is a good one. Suzuki, Morel and Happ are good hitters and Hoerner, Swanson aren’t bad. 
 

Not a World Series contending club, but certainly not bad. Add a pricey free agent hitter and pitcher (which I assume is all but a certainty) and the whole roster looks much more formidable. 

[HarveysWBs]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Believe it or not, the Cubs Pythagorean was exactly the same as the Brewers (90-72) so it appears they hit a patch of bad luck whereas the Brewers were a touch lucky at 92 wins.

Not to take away from the rest of your post, but the Brewers have beaten their Pythagorean record 8 out of the last 10 years, including the last seven straight.  Such a run would seemingly defy the standard explanation of the team being lucky.  Therefore, one of the most important things to be determined by le affair de Counsell is if this Pythagorean outperformance is more the result of roster construction or Counsell’s supposed deft hand with the bullpen phone.

[patrickgpe]

He said he has been thinking about this for 2 years. The only thing I wonder is who approached who, since I don’t think the cubs planned on firing Ross 

[AKCheesehead]

After seeing CC smiling in that cubs costume I suddenly no longer miss him at all whatsoever. 

[hawing]

"I wonder what hawing thinks."

Said by few if any of you, but too bad, you get to read my thoughts now, after a week of taking all this in. 😬

I'm having a hard time not feeling played by Craig.  Perhaps he simply did a solid acting job reading the script for that “Born a Brewer” commercial in 2016 or whenever.  I'm disappointed to realize that he doesn't feel that way now, and (per his comments in Chicago today) hasn't for at least the last couple of years. 

In a relative vacuum, Craig’s job change makes plenty of sense.  New gig, doing what he enjoys, more money, no immediate need to relocate the fam.  Indeed, one of my coping mechanisms when favorite players move around is to remind myself that ultimately, they all pretty much work for MLB, and the goal of the front office is to try to time acquisitions so you get people while they're at their best, as often as you can.

But the Illinois/Chicago/Cubs-Wisconsin/Milwaukee/Brewers dynamic is some pretty critical context.  The former's superiority complex and the latter's inferiority complex are not Craig's fault.  But did Craig really expect Brewers fans to be sanguine about his moving to CHC?  His professed surprise today comes across as disingenuous.  

(Those emotions aside, it’s uncool to aim for a job that’s occupied by someone and get that person the boot.  We know it’s not the first time CHC has bounced an under-contract manager when someone they decided they liked better came along.  I’m not impressed with any employer that does that.)

Having said that much, I'm more disappointed in the Brewers' front office.  In recent years, the organization has felt noticeably less fan-friendly - specifically, less interested in fan engagement.  I expect the pandemic put something of a dent in that, but it has deteriorated even more since 2022.  I follow the organization closely, attend a lot of games, and pay a lot of attention to the fan experience.  I think my take is pretty knowledgeable in this instance. 

The difference is not in face-to-face guest relations interactions, but with communication from the top.  For example, Mark used to put out an open letter to fans at the end of each season.  That hasn’t happened in a while. There was no explanation for (or even acknowledgment of) the absence of a winter fan event in 2022 or 2023.  Why not just admit that they're still concerned about covid or want to avoid the Wisconsin Center while it's expanded or the players hate winter or whatever?   I get that they may not want to deliver a negative message, but no messaging at all frankly leaves fans assuming the worst, so the vibe is already negative.

Another example: Sometime during the 2022-23 offseason, Mike Attanasio was named the Brewers’ VP for Fan Engagement - a position which a look at media guides suggests didn’t exist before.  In January 2023 Mike asked on (at the time still) Twitter what Brewers and Norwich City FC accounts he should follow.  He got a lot of Norwich responses, and interacted with some of the posters.  I politely replied with some Brewers suggestions (including Brewer Fanatic, of course) - and got crickets in response.  

Maybe the 2022 drop-off is total coincidence, and has nothing to do with fan reaction to the 2022 trade deadline, followed weeks later by Mark A’s investment in the football team.  I'm skeptical of that - and I’d need more inside information than a fan is probably entitled to - to change my mind. 

I understand that the Brewers’ fanbase could do worse than the current ownership, but it’s still hard not to wonder if we could do better.  How much do you have to suck to drive noted hometown dude Craig out of the organization?!  I’d feel better with an owner whose heart still seems to be in the work. 

Other thoughts:

I absolutely lack the personality for a sales career, but I would hate hate hate to be a Brewers ticket rep right now.  Imagine the ire of current customers they've had to absorb this past week; not to mention how do you attract new customers right now?  How does the org attract (decent) free agents?

In a similar vein, I cringe when I think of the front office’s current attempts to attract state and municipal government support for the Brewers’ longer-term future.  That task already was hampered some by the Brewers’ prompt exit from the 2023 postseason, and after the past week I’d understand if legislators and local politicians are currently wondering just how solid an investment the organization is right now. 

Finally, for those who have marveled at (or been dismayed by) how insufferable CHC games in Milwaukee have become for fans...wait until May 27, 2024.  I remember attending Paul Molitor's first game in County Stadium since joining the Blue Jays. I couldn't boo him, but I didn't feel like cheering him either.  It was uncomfortable.  Craig coming back with CHC will be worse. 

[nate82]

No manager of the year for CC.

[torts]

5 minutes ago, nate82 said:

No manager of the year for CC.

Good.  Managers of the year don't knife fanbases in the back

[daboss]

On 11/13/2023 at 1:15 PM, TURBO said:

All they have to do is be better than us (or the Cardinals) in 2024 to make the playoffs.  They can spend some money, they have it, and they now have our manager.

I mean, we already know we aren't going to spend the money to land a big time free agent.  They can do just that, probably several times actually.

Honestly, we probably win a few less games than last year, and they have the opportunity to win a few more, maybe even a lot more if they play their cards right.  Let's say we lose 4 or 5 more than last year (I actually think we lose more like 10 than last year), and they win 4 or 5 more than last year.  That puts them right in the thick of things.

I want nothing more than to keep Counsell out of the playoffs next season, but how that plays out, we are going to have to watch and see.

Aloha Turbo, 

As a Cub fan, I'm still furious how my Cubs treated Ross be it I disagreed many times with him. Many of my Cub friends have said for me to move on, this is the "business." In thinking about this, I'm also displeased with CC because for one that wanted to "elevate" manager and coaches salaries, if he was approached first by the Cubs' FO and had honor, I would have expected him to say no because Ross is under contract through 2024. But I guess $8mil/yr can change one's decision quickly. On the flip side, if the Cubs' FO really felt this way about Ross, then instead of speaking in such glowing ways after the season about Ross, do the hard work and tell him the organization is moving in a different direction. So we'll honor your contract salary through 2024 but you're no longer the manager. Then make that public, let some time pass. Then hire whomever you want. The way Jed and the FO waited in secret for CC's contract to officially end, meet him in secret, then Jed flies to FL on Sunday to deliver the news to Ross, one day before his "official" firing and Craig's hiring just stinks. Many Cub fans think because of CC hiring that money is going to flow and every free agent and their family will come to Chicago. I hope not, I know as a fan that doesn't seem very supportive. If CC is such a great manager, I've argued he's better due to experience, then give him a similar situation - roster and see what happens. I also wonder if some players and future front office people won't come because of this Ross firing? Anyhow I hope the big free agents sign elsewhere, though before Ross' firing I had hoped for either Ohtani or Yamamoto and that your Brewers don't have a fire sale. I like seeing a strong central division. Hope Murphy can bring the team together and succeed in 2024. Mahalo 

[Playing Catch]

On 11/13/2023 at 5:05 PM, HarveysWBs said:

Not to take away from the rest of your post, but the Brewers have beaten their Pythagorean record 8 out of the last 10 years, including the last seven straight.  Such a run would seemingly defy the standard explanation of the team being lucky.  Therefore, one of the most important things to be determined by le affair de Counsell is if this Pythagorean outperformance is more the result of roster construction or Counsell’s supposed deft hand with the bullpen phone.

Perhaps the more stats-savvy among us will point out the flaw of my hypothesis, but I've always felt that the way Counsell managed (probably by front office design) was to win low scoring games featuring our top starters along with our top relievers, and basically punt on the other days, often losing non-competitive blowouts.

[HarveysWBs]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Perhaps the more stats-savvy among us will point out the flaw of my hypothesis, but I've always felt that the way Counsell managed (probably by front office design) was to win low scoring games featuring our top starters along with our top relievers, and basically punt on the other days, often losing non-competitive blowouts.

Yeah, the increasing prevalence of teams punting games in which they are losing after 6 (especially by using position players to pitch the end of blowouts) has made me suspect that the interpretive usefulness of Pythagorean record is diminishing in the modern game, but I’m open to correction on this point.