2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[markedman5]

The Brewers have scored the most runs in the division and given up the fewest…….

[SeaBass]

10 hours ago, markedman5 said:

The Brewers have scored the most runs in the division and given up the fewest…….

The Brewers (403 RA) have allowed the 5th fewest runs in MLB (tied with KC) and have allowed fewer runs than... checks notes... the Baltimore Orioles (414 RA). Who I've been told have better starting pitchers than the Brewers.

[Thurston Fluff]

4 hours ago, SeaBass said:

The Brewers (403 RA) have allowed the 5th fewest runs in MLB (tied with KC) and have allowed fewer runs than... checks notes... the Baltimore Orioles (414 RA). Who I've been told have better starting pitchers than the Brewers.

Yea, but we have more of them.

[BruisedCrew]

15 hours ago, markedman5 said:

The Brewers have scored the most runs in the division and given up the fewest…….

Since June 1, the Brewers are 4th in the division (ahead of only the Cubs) and 12th in the NL in runs scored.

It is clearly the run prevention unit (2nd best in the NL) that is keeping them on target. With Yelich now out indefinitely, the pressure on run prevention is likely to ramp up. Going 3-1 on the road trip in games in which the offense produced 1, 1, 1, and 3 runs in 9 innings highlights that. 

[tmwiese55]

5 hours ago, SeaBass said:

The Brewers (403 RA) have allowed the 5th fewest runs in MLB (tied with KC) and have allowed fewer runs than... checks notes... the Baltimore Orioles (414 RA). Who I've been told have better starting pitchers than the Brewers.

I know its mostly a wisecrack in regards to Burnes and all that so no big deal.  While they do have him so they do have the better Ace, their starting pitching staff has been rampaged by injuries too.       And for that stat of course relief matters and MKEs is better.   

Bal is also missing their closer all year like MKE.  Kimbrell actually has done surprisingly well for them though, I expected him to be a waste of money. I still wouldn't want him out there with a playoff game on the line at this stage of his career, but good for him so far.

[SeaBass]

26 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

I know its mostly a wisecrack in regards to Burnes and all that so no big deal.  While they do have him so they do have the better Ace, their starting pitching staff has been rampaged by injuries too.       And for that stat of course relief matters and MKEs is better.   

Bal is also missing their closer all year like MKE.  Kimbrell actually has done surprisingly well for them though, I expected him to be a waste of money. I still wouldn't want him out there with a playoff game on the line at this stage of his career, but good for him so far.

Whew, sounds like a lot of excuses. They're supposed to be better and they're not (right now at this point in time). Of course my post was somewhat tongue in cheek but there is nothing they are going through that the Brewers aren't also going through and they still have more talent than the Brewers. Yet the narrative around this Brewers team is how are they doing all this winning without good starting pitching?

If you were offered a straight swap of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez for Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would you do it? I'd hope so. Wouldn't even have to think 30 seconds about it. So now we're going to compare Meyers and Civale and say we're obviously better there too?

At a glance I'd take their 8th and 9th inning RPs (Cano and Kimbrell) over ours too. For one, the Brewers don't seem to have a designated 8th inning pitcher. Maybe that's by design and maybe not, the idea of using Hudson in high leverage earlier in games isn't a bad thing but nobody else has really established themselves as a rock solid 8th inning set-up man.

All this on top of that Orioles offense and they are only 1.5 games better than the Brewers in the standings and have a similar run differential +85 to the Brewers' +84.

This is all pretty circumstantial as the Orioles have been on a 3-8 stretch in their last 11 games (they just broke a 3 game losing streak by defeating the Marlins in extra innings). The Brewers had been on a bit of a skid themselves but won 4 of their last 5 after the AS break. a couple of those Cubs games go differently and maybe this little bit of a swing in the Brewers' favor isn't as meaningful.

[tmwiese55]

3 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Whew, sounds like a lot of excuses. They're supposed to be better and they're not (right now at this point in time). Of course my post was somewhat tongue in cheek but there is nothing they are going through that the Brewers aren't also going through and they still have more talent than the Brewers. Yet the narrative around this Brewers team is how are they doing all this winning without good starting pitching?

If you were offered a straight swap of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez for Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would you do it? I'd hope so. Wouldn't even have to think 30 seconds about it. So now we're going to compare Meyers and Civale and say we're obviously better there too?

At a glance I'd take their 8th and 9th inning RPs (Cano and Kimbrell) over ours too. For one, the Brewers don't seem to have a designated 8th inning pitcher. Maybe that's by design and maybe not, the idea of using Hudson in high leverage earlier in games isn't a bad thing but nobody else has really established themselves as a rock solid 8th inning set-up man.

All this on top of that Orioles offense and they are only 1.5 games better than the Brewers in the standings and have a similar run differential +85 to the Brewers' +84.

This is all pretty circumstantial as the Orioles have been on a 3-8 stretch in their last 11 games (they just broke a 3 game losing streak by defeating the Marlins in extra innings). The Brewers had been on a bit of a skid themselves but won 4 of their last 5 after the AS break. a couple of those Cubs games go differently and maybe this little bit of a swing in the Brewers' favor isn't as meaningful.

Yea all good, just saying if people didn't know their SPs have been massively hurt too.

[sveumrules]

Orioles position players
116 wRC+ | +3.9 BsR | -6.4 DEF | 20.2 WAR
Brewers position players
107 wRC+ | +13.9 BsR | +4.6 DEF | 19.0 WAR
(Orioles hit considerably better, Brewers almost make it back up on the bases and in the field)

Orioles rotation
549 IP | 94 ERA- | 98 FIP- | 9.4 rWAR
Brewers rotation
482 IP | 102 ERA- | 110 FIP- | 6.8 rWAR
(Orioles rotation is better across the board.)

Orioles bullpen
355 IP | 95 ERA- | 91 FIP- | +2.36 WPA
Brewers bullpen
422 IP | 80 ERA- | 101 FIP- | +9.31 WPA
(Orioles bullpen has better peripherals, but can't match the Brewers on run prevention or context based performance. Orioles batters also lead MLB in WPA while their rotation is 6th, so that leaves less win probability to add for their relievers.)

[BruisedCrew]

Hader gave up a 3 run HR in the 9th and the Pirates are a couple,of outs away from tying the Cardinals for second place. 

[Brian]

On 7/29/2024 at 9:56 PM, BruisedCrew said:

Hader gave up a 3 run HR in the 9th and the Pirates are a couple,of outs away from tying the Cardinals for second place. 

Well those darn Cardinals are in second all by themselves and creeping up on the Brewers.  Only a 5 game lead now that the Brewers lost 2 in a row. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Cardinals at Wrigley today against Imanaga. Four game set.

I assume Cubs can split this series.

[Brian]

4 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Cardinals at Wrigley today against Imanaga. Four game set.

I assume Cubs can split this series.

That would be great, Cubs have there best pitchers going this series in Chicago also.  3 of 4 would even be better. 

[adambr2]

Like them or not the Cubs just did us a solid. 5.5 lead looks much better than 4.5 right now. The way things are looking, there's no Wild Card to fall back on if we blow the division. 

[Brian]

Cubs won it in the 9th over STL.  First time all year I was rooting for them. 

[tmwiese55]

Have Cubs game on in background.  Random stat put up regarding their bullpen.  Mar-May it was like 25th in the league.  Since June 1 its been #1.   I forget for sure which stat it was but it was a basic one like ERA or runs against of some kind. I don't think it was a random weird one.   

[LouisEly]

PIT now 8 back and staring down a 6-game West Coast road trip with 3 @LAD then 3 @SDP.  They finish with 10 of 13 on the road with the only 3 at home vs MIL.

STL about to embark on a 8/9 to 9/8 stretch with all but one series against teams with winning records.

[sveumrules]

With a three gamer against the Reds coming up and the season 70% done, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of where everybody stands coming down the stretch...

OVERVIEW

BREWERS
65 W - 49 L | +101 Run Differential
PECOTA: 88.7% Win Division
FanGraphs: 88.1% Win Division
Division Record: 23 W - 13 L
Division Games Remaining (16)
vsCIN (3), atSTL (3), atCIN (4), vsSTL (3), atPIT (3)

CARDINALS
59 W - 57 L | -46 Run Differential
PECOTA: 7.0% Win Division
FanGraphs: 5.9% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 19 L
Division Games Remaining (16)
atCIN (3), vsMIL (3), atMIL (3), vsCIN (3), vsPIT (4)

PIRATES
56 W - 58 L | -13 Run Differential
PECOTA: 0.4% Win Division
FanGraphs: 1.9% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 15 L
Division Games Remaining (20)
vsCIN (4), vsCHI (3), atCHI (3), atSTL (4), atCHI (3), vsMIL (3)

REDS
56 W - 59 L | +45 Run Differential
PECOTA: 1.2% Win Division
FanGraphs: 1.8% Win Division
Division Record: 14 W - 15 L
Division Games Remaining (23)
atMIL (3), vsSTL (3), atPIT (4), vsMIL (4), atSTL (3), vsPIT (3), vsCHI (3)

CUBS
57 W - 60 L | +7 Run Differential
PECOTA: 2.7% Win Division
FanGraphs: 2.3% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 26 L
Division Games Remaining (9)
atPIT (3), vsPIT (3), vsCIN (3)

FULL SEASON LEAGUE RANKS

BREWERS
109 wRC+ (9th) | 4.89 R/G (7th)
+13.2 BsR (2nd) | +42 DRS (4th) | 21.9 WAR (4th)
SP: 101 ERA- (14th) | 7.6 rWAR (16th)
RP: 80 ERA- (3rd) | +9.18 WPA (2nd)

CARDINALS
97 wRC+ (18th) | 4.15 R/G (24th)
+1.4 BsR (14th) | +29 DRS (9th) | 11.9 WAR (18th)
SP: 110 ERA- (23rd) | 5.0 rWAR (26th)
RP: 91 ERA- (9th) | +4.10 WPA (7th)

PIRATES
87 wRC+ (27th) | 4.23 R/G (17th)
+2.9 BsR (10th) | -7 DRS (24th) | 5.0 WAR (27th)
SP: 85 ERA- (4th) | 12.8 rWAR (4th)
RP: 106 ERA- (26th) | +0.38 WPA (22nd)

REDS
91 wRC+ (24th) | 4.50 R/G (13th)
+15.7 BsR (1st) | -29 DRS (28th) | 9.0 WAR (24th)
SP: 94 ERA- (8th) | 10.9 rWAR (6th)
RP: 83 ERA- (4th) | +3.25 WPA (9th)

CUBS
95 wRC+ (20th) | 4.21 R/G (19th)
+8.1 BsR (4th) | +12 DRS (15th) | 11.9 WAR (17th)
SP: 93 ERA- (7th) | 9.9 rWAR (9th)
RP: 90 ERA- (6th) | -0.93 WPA (26th)

POST ALL STAR BREAK LEAGUE RANKS

BREWERS (10 W - 7 L)
123 wRC+ (6th) | 5.41 R/G (7th) | 4.4 WAR (7th)
SP: 98 ERA- (13th) | 1.3 rWAR (18th)
RP: 74 ERA- (6th) | +1.41 WPA (6th)

CARDINALS (9 W - 11 L)
98 wRC+ (20th) | 4.15 R/G (23rd) | 2.1 WAR (18th)
SP: 108 ERA- (17th) | 1.8 rWAR (10th)
RP: 114 ERA- (21st) | -0.89 WPA (23rd)

PIRATES (8 W - 10 L)
94 wRC+ (23rd) | 4.44 R/G (17th) | 1.6 WAR (22nd)
SP: 89 ERA- (7th) | 1.8 rWAR (11th)
RP: 110 ERA- (18th) | -1.49 WPA (29th)

REDS (9 W - 9 L)
92 wRC+ (24th) | 4.72 R/G (11th) | 1.5 WAR (23rd)
SP: 97 ERA- (12th) | 2.1 rWAR (7th)
RP: 101 ERA- (16th) | +0.28 WPA (15th)

CUBS (10 W - 9 L)
89 wRC+ (26th) | 4.11 R/G (24th) | 2.1 WAR (19th)
SP: 110 ERA- (18th) | 1.4 rWAR (17th)
RP: 44 ERA- (1st) | +0.57 WPA (11th)
 

[Playing Catch]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

With a three gamer against the Reds coming up and the season 70% done, now seems like as good a time as any to take stock of where everybody stands coming down the stretch...

OVERVIEW

BREWERS
65 W - 49 L | +101 Run Differential
PECOTA: 88.7% Win Division
FanGraphs: 88.1% Win Division
Division Record: 23 W - 13 L
Division Games Remaining (16)
vsCIN (3), atSTL (3), atCIN (4), vsSTL (3), atPIT (3)

CARDINALS
59 W - 57 L | -46 Run Differential
PECOTA: 7.0% Win Division
FanGraphs: 5.9% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 19 L
Division Games Remaining (16)
atCIN (3), vsMIL (3), atMIL (3), vsCIN (3), vsPIT (4)

PIRATES
56 W - 58 L | -13 Run Differential
PECOTA: 0.4% Win Division
FanGraphs: 1.9% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 15 L
Division Games Remaining (20)
vsCIN (4), vsCHI (3), atCHI (3), atSTL (4), atCHI (3), vsMIL (3)

REDS
56 W - 59 L | +45 Run Differential
PECOTA: 1.2% Win Division
FanGraphs: 1.8% Win Division
Division Record: 14 W - 15 L
Division Games Remaining (23)
atMIL (3), vsSTL (3), atPIT (4), vsMIL (4), atSTL (3), vsPIT (3), vsCHI (3)

CUBS
57 W - 60 L | +7 Run Differential
PECOTA: 2.7% Win Division
FanGraphs: 2.3% Win Division
Division Record: 17 W - 26 L
Division Games Remaining (9)
atPIT (3), vsPIT (3), vsCIN (3)

FULL SEASON LEAGUE RANKS

BREWERS
109 wRC+ (9th) | 4.89 R/G (7th)
+13.2 BsR (2nd) | +42 DRS (4th) | 21.9 WAR (4th)
SP: 101 ERA- (14th) | 7.6 rWAR (16th)
RP: 80 ERA- (3rd) | +9.18 WPA (2nd)

CARDINALS
97 wRC+ (18th) | 4.15 R/G (24th)
+1.4 BsR (14th) | +29 DRS (9th) | 11.9 WAR (18th)
SP: 110 ERA- (23rd) | 5.0 rWAR (26th)
RP: 91 ERA- (9th) | +4.10 WPA (7th)

PIRATES
87 wRC+ (27th) | 4.23 R/G (17th)
+2.9 BsR (10th) | -7 DRS (24th) | 5.0 WAR (27th)
SP: 85 ERA- (4th) | 12.8 rWAR (4th)
RP: 106 ERA- (26th) | +0.38 WPA (22nd)

REDS
91 wRC+ (24th) | 4.50 R/G (13th)
+15.7 BsR (1st) | -29 DRS (28th) | 9.0 WAR (24th)
SP: 94 ERA- (8th) | 10.9 rWAR (6th)
RP: 83 ERA- (4th) | +3.25 WPA (9th)

CUBS
95 wRC+ (20th) | 4.21 R/G (19th)
+8.1 BsR (4th) | +12 DRS (15th) | 11.9 WAR (17th)
SP: 93 ERA- (7th) | 9.9 rWAR (9th)
RP: 90 ERA- (6th) | -0.93 WPA (26th)

POST ALL STAR BREAK LEAGUE RANKS

BREWERS (10 W - 7 L)
123 wRC+ (6th) | 5.41 R/G (7th) | 4.4 WAR (7th)
SP: 98 ERA- (13th) | 1.3 rWAR (18th)
RP: 74 ERA- (6th) | +1.41 WPA (6th)

CARDINALS (9 W - 11 L)
98 wRC+ (20th) | 4.15 R/G (23rd) | 2.1 WAR (18th)
SP: 108 ERA- (17th) | 1.8 rWAR (10th)
RP: 114 ERA- (21st) | -0.89 WPA (23rd)

PIRATES (8 W - 10 L)
94 wRC+ (23rd) | 4.44 R/G (17th) | 1.6 WAR (22nd)
SP: 89 ERA- (7th) | 1.8 rWAR (11th)
RP: 110 ERA- (18th) | -1.49 WPA (29th)

REDS (9 W - 9 L)
92 wRC+ (24th) | 4.72 R/G (11th) | 1.5 WAR (23rd)
SP: 97 ERA- (12th) | 2.1 rWAR (7th)
RP: 101 ERA- (16th) | +0.28 WPA (15th)

CUBS (10 W - 9 L)
89 wRC+ (26th) | 4.11 R/G (24th) | 2.1 WAR (19th)
SP: 110 ERA- (18th) | 1.4 rWAR (17th)
RP: 44 ERA- (1st) | +0.57 WPA (11th)
 

Yeah, but seriously, the Cardinals could win 10 in a row and change everything.

[yourout]

I'm not counting any chickens till the deep fryer is hot. 

But I am getting out the seasonings.

[Lathund]

A 7 game lead is a lot, especially this late in a season, but it sometimes doesn't feel like it. One way to illustrate it is that if the Brewers fall a bit short of expectations and go .500 rest of the way, they'll have 89 wins. 

In order for the Cardinals to get to 90 (Brewers will almost certainly have the tie breaker), they need to win 30 out of 46 remaining games, a 65% win rate. Which is a 105-win pace. The Cardinals are a team with a negative run differential, who have shown absolutely nothing to suggest they're capable of that kind of pace. 

Impossible? No. But extremely unlikely. What makes it better is that if the Brewers go even one game above .500, Cardinals will now need a 109 win pace. 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Cardinals and Cubs with an interesting Sunday off day today. 

Cubs all of a sudden only 3.5 GB of final wild card spot.

Pirates lost six straight and now 5 GB of final wild card.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Cubs all of a sudden only 3.5 GB of final wild card spot.

Yeah, looks like their low point was July 3rd at 39 W - 48 L and thirteen games out of first.

Since then they’ve gone 20 W - 12 L to get back on the doorstep of .500.

Somewhat interestingly, the top five teams in MLB over that stretch have all been the surging NL Wild Card hopefuls - ARI (23-9), CHC (20-12), SDP (19-9), SFG (19-13), NYM (19-14).

[Samurai Bucky]

Be wary... although Counsell has had his issues this year, I have a feeling he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and gets the Cubs in as a wild card.

[Frisbee Slider]

22 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Be wary... although Counsell has had his issues this year, I have a feeling he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and gets the Cubs in as a wild card.

Cubs with last wild card spot and Brewers with number three playoff seed means Milwaukee hosts Chicago? 😬

[rickh150]

22 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Cubs with last wild card spot and Brewers with number three playoff seed means Milwaukee hosts Chicago? 😬

Would hate to see that….but would love to win that too.