Brewers Offense 5/22

[RRwhite]

I don't live in Milwaukee so I don't get to hear or read the local experts' analyses of all things Brew Crew.  I don't understand why it seems like year after year, different players, different coaching staff and the same inconsistent offense - always behind in the count, weak pop-ups and infield grounders, Just look at how the most mediocre starters face them and look like Cy Young candidates who are able to keep their pitch counts low and pitch deep into games. They just pound the strike zone and our guys either take them or foul them off and are quickly in a hole - and that's never a good place for a hitter to be. Lazardo for example is not a bad pitcher but 8 innings of shutout ball? His stuff was not that good. He got a lot of help from Brewer hitters that don't seem to have a strategy or make any adjustments on the second or third time around.  Is it my imagination? I just want to know if other armchair coaches out there see what I see.

    Oh, and please don't respond with stuff like, "but they are in first place", "but they make the playoffs". I know the Brewers always have their strengths and are as gutsy as any team but I don't want to just squeak by. Call me Craig Counsell but I want a pennant!! And with the state of this pitching staff we must have more offense or at least more constructive outs when needed.

[Stealofhome]

I haven't been able to find comprehensive metrics to cover "quality plate appearance" anywhere, but I had heard of that somehow being available. But one possibility is to look at the percentage of productive outs, available on baseball-reference.

Quote

Created by Elias and ESPN for three possible situations. Successful Sac for a pitcher with one out. Advancing any runner with none out. Driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning. Failed means the batter made an out without advancing the runner(s).

So far in 2024, the Brewers rank 27th in MLB with 24.1% compared to a league average of 27.9%. Here's the data going back to 2014, it does appear that they are consistently toward the middle to bottom of the league in this. It's also interesting to see that the league average percentage has been trending downward.

Year	Pct	Avg Pct	Rank
2024	24.1%	27.9%	27
2023	27.7%	26.8%	13
2022	24.4%	26.9%	27
2021	24.4%	26.4%	24
2020	24.0%	25.3%	20
2019	22.3%	26.7%	30
2018	27.5%	27.3%	13
2017	27.2%	27.9%	19
2016	28.2%	29.4%	21
2015	28.3%	30.4%	22
2014	31.9%	31.1%	11

It's also worth noting that the teams near the bottom this year include the White Sox, Braves, Yankees, and Guardians, so it doesn't really track to team winning percentage.

[sveumrules]

Brewers offense is currently tied with the Phillies for 4th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ so far this year.

Their 4.98 R/G is currently 3rd in MLB.

For more contextual numbers they are 4th in PAs with RISP so they are putting a lot of pressure on pitchers and have batted to a 141 wRC+ (2nd in MLB) in those RISP situations.

Sure, it sucks they got shutout yesterday, but it’s been way more boom than bust up to this point.

The best run of recent Brewers offense I could think of off the top of my head was the 2nd half of 2018 when Yelich went nuclear. Brewers position players posted a 114 wRC+ over those 65 games.

[Underachiever]

I wonder how many other teams people watch. You see most of the rankings of offense and the Brewers rank well, but many insist that they are bad, maybe even the worst. I hated last night’s game, but it happens. I watch baseball as I work from home, from noon til the west coast games are played.

Look at the numbers Sveum posted. 4th in WRC, third in runs, that’s not “squeaking by”. If it’s not enough that the Brewers rank highly in those metrics, what are you asking for? For them to be an outlier at an ordinal above the rest of MLB? I learned in this thread that they aren’t good in productive outs. While interesting, I don’t know what they can do to be more clutch. Which I think is what that is. 
But they are in first place, even as they squeak by.
 

[nate82]

The Brewers have only scored 3 or fewer runs this month 6 times.  They are 1-5 in those games.  Where the Brewers have scored 4 or more runs a game they are 9-5.  They could improve a bit on their 3 or fewer runs games this month and they probably should have won one or two of those games.  The 4 or more have been bad bullpen games or bad starting pitching where they have lost.  If you are scoring 4+ a game you should be winning more than you are losing even with a bad pitching staff.  The Brewers have won 8 games so far this month by 2 or more runs.  If we expand that to 3 or more it is 4 games.  By comparison the Brewers have only lost 4 games this month by 2 or more runs. 

The offense hasn't really been the problem this month it is the pitching and it has been the bullpen a bit this month that has melted down a few times and have cost the Brewers a few wins.  

I think some are forgetting the Marlins have a really good pitching staff it is their hitting that has been the problem but they scored 8 10 and then 3 off of the Mets coming into the series against the Brewers so their offense had been clicking a bit.  In the series the Marlins scored 9 runs and the Brewers also scored 9 runs.  Offense wasn't really the problem and the Brewers ran into a really good Luzardo.

[umphrey]

If you think the 2024 brewers have offense problems like weak contact, behind in count, etc. It's almost definitely just your perception lying to you after a bad game. Their offense has been amazing all year, top 5. Unbelievably good. 

[Playing Catch]

I didn't get to watch yesterday's game (unusual!) but it looks like a "getaway" game boxscore, which makes me think the umps' zone was big. I also think a lot of us are irritated by losing 2 of 3 to the Marlins.

I also agree with Underachiever. When I only watch Brewer games, I don't realize the offensive challenges that most teams have, or go through at different points in the season. For example, the Yankees got shut out 5 times in April.

 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

I wonder how many other teams people watch.

This is not limited to baseball, and usually includes the same people who think that the Packers have a bad OL who miss too many blocks, the receivers drop too many passes, the Badgers can't recruit a good QB (neither can 85% of FBS schools), Greg Gard can't coach a team to the Sweet 16 (neither can 335 other FBS coaches) and needs to be fired, etc.

[Oxy]

Being consistently behind in counts has nothing to do with hitters.  Sure, once behind in the count hitters can foul off pitches and make a guy work harder, but if a pitcher is making his pitches or the ump has a big zone...well good for them.

[SomewhereInTime]

This is basically just a "Hi welcome to baseball" post.  Yes this offense is inconsistent, sometimes they get shutdown and score few or no runs, sometimes guys strikeout or hit weak popups.  It's been a problem for the Brewers since 1970 and for every other team as long as they've been around.

[Underachiever]

'27 Yankees scored three or fewer runs 40 times. They scored 337 runs in 26 others (13 per). Their message boards must have been nuts. Especially since their entire payroll was less than it cost the Brewers for a week of Jesse Winker. Cheap ass.

And yes, I am saying the Brewers are better than the '27 Yankees. More Hall of Famers, for sure.

[kestrel79]

I know everyone likes to make the sky is falling posts after a couple bad games. But like others have said this is baseball. It's a long 162 game season. Even the best teams lose series, lose to bad teams, have long losing streaks, get shutout, get no hit. It happens. I swear this team could be the 2001 Mariners and there would be a 20 page thread on the IGT page saying how bad the team is.

Thanks for posting those stats, the data doesn't lie. Overall they have been a pretty good offense this year so far despite a crazy amount of injuries and growing pains of young players, and a patchwork starting rotation. Gotta give the front office and coaching staff credit.

[sveumrules]

They flashed up on the screen that the Red Sox team ERA of 2.69 was the lowest in franchise history through 50 games.

Kutter Crawford was rocking an even shinier 2.17 ERA on his own personal ledger entering the game.

Then they flashed up on the screen that the six earned runs the Brewers got off Crawford were the most allowed by a Red Sox starting pitcher all season.

[markedman5]

This is the best Brewers record through 50 games in the last 10 years……..and it hasn’t been done with dominant pitching…….that is for sure.

 

 

[markedman5]

 

[Samurai Bucky]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

 

This clip from MLB includes Tim Dillard's appearance.  Hilarious!

https://www.mlb.com/video/fans-lose-their-popcorn-after-home-run?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share

[tmwiese55]

In addition to the O being generally good so far they have some clear spots for improvement as the deadline approaches as two OF spots are very very poor right now.   Essentially, a month from now you should have Hoskins back and a league avg OF coming in soon after.

[igor67]

If just one of the young OFers would find the Turang level (not style necessarily though for Frelick that would be fine) adjusting to the league we could go from good to feared offense.

[markedman5]

Update through 57 games

 

[markedman5]

 

[Redd Vencher]

The Brewers have a 117 wRC+ so far. Should that hold all season it will be T-2nd in franchise history with the 78 team just behind Harvey's Wallbangers. (120 wRC+) I don't get thinking we need more to be a feared lineup, assuming current production holds.

[nate82]

Brewers offense per situation by wRC+.  Again the Brewers offense is really good this year unless against LHP. 

And also since some hate the #4 hitter for the Brewers:

The only sore spot for the Brewers offense has been against LHP where they are below league average and are 22nd against LHP. 

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Brewers offense per situation by wRC+.  Again the Brewers offense is really good this year unless against LHP. 

And also since some hate the #4 hitter for the Brewers:

The only sore spot for the Brewers offense has been against LHP where they are below league average and are 22nd against LHP. 

The being bad against LHP makes no sense when you look at our roster on paper. Hopefully it turns around at some point.

[kestrel79]

Hoskins struggling hasn't helped. He was one of the guys who usually mashes LHP who was brought in.

[Jimbo]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this.  This past weekend I was playing with some stats and decided to go season-to-date all the PA's that resulted in the Win Prob moving 20 points.

Contreras - 5 big hits

Adames - 5 big hits, 2 big whiffs

Sanchez - 3 big hits

Churio - 2 big hits

Ortiz - 2 big hits

Perkins - 2 big hits, 2 big whiffs

Frelick - 1 big hit

Hoskins - 1 big hit

Yelich - 1 big hit

Bauers - 1 big hit, 1 big whiff

Turang - 1 big whiff