Mets (Quintana) vs Brewers (Myers): 10/3/24, 6:08pm

[OldSchoolSnapper]

7 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

In baseball, teams score runs by hitting balls that pitchers pitch to them.

Weird.

OK? And cars crash when they are driven by people. Usually it's still somebody's fault.

[Nola Beery]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

They went into the 9th inning having allowed 0 runs and they had arguably the best closer in baseball from the last few years on the mound.

I don't think they could ask the pitching to set them up to win any better than they did tonight. 

OK.  It's not THAT bad.  But I've never felt totally secure with Williams, and Peralta is no Burnes or Woodruff.   It may have been the pain and the vodka talking.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I understand the sadness of the Uecker thing, I really do, but I wish there was some perspective, lol. The guy has made a fantastic living doing nothing but hanging out in the sport he loves, in the town he grew up in, and has never had to get a "real" job. I of course wish he could see them win, but I feel a lot worse for the random Briggs and Stratton employee who's been following this group for 40 years.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 minutes ago, Nola Beery said:

OK.  It's not THAT bad.  But I've never felt totally secure with Williams, and Peralta is no Burnes or Woodruff.   It may have been the pain and the vodka talking.

I agree that Williams has never given me that lockdown feeling. He's always been more of a Turnbow experience for me, even just mentally. He has certainly been a better player, but that's always been my gut when he's out there. 

I think he needs to go though. I'm sure he'll be successful elsewhere, but he's Brandon Bostick at this point. Too much association with pain to have him walking around.

[CheezWizHed]

I feel bad for Myers that pitched a wail of a game, but at least he was able to get a playoff debut. 

Williams... it does seem like he can handle the "normal" pressure situations, but as soon as the bright lights shine hot... boom. I wonder if Megill will be any better? He has more of a bulldog mentality, but does have a tendency of giving up a HR here and there. 

Adames and Contreras looked tired and wore down... hopefully they learned to take more rest days during the year. 

The Kid Rev II looked pretty good though.  Not enough to carry the whole team, but close. 

Woodruff and Yelli returning next year will be a nice "free" adder.  They pretty much just have to find a SS (or 2B/3B) and a backup C.  

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yelich will be 33 coming off back surgery. Woodruff not much better. I think anything we get out of those guys is a bonus. I am not holding my breath. More excited about the continued development of the younger players. 

The most surprising thing would be either of those 2 finishing the season.

[gypcasino]

54 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I understand the sadness of the Uecker thing, I really do, but I wish there was some perspective, lol. The guy has made a fantastic living doing nothing but hanging out in the sport he loves, in the town he grew up in, and has never had to get a "real" job. I of course wish he could see them win, but I feel a lot worse for the random Briggs and Stratton employee who's been following this group for 40 years.

And Ueck's a grumpy old man off mic. He's pretty low on my list of things to be sad about.

[Pugger]

A lot of us are piling on blaming Williams for losing game 3 but it was a group effort.  A little more offensive production would have nice in this entire series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

9 minutes ago, Pugger said:

A lot of us are piling on blaming Williams for losing game 3 but it was a group effort.  A little more offensive production would have nice in this entire series.

Clearing the bases in the 7th to go up 4-0 would have been huge. But nobody comes close to what Williams did. He deserves what he is getting.

[Jimbo]

9 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

It is.  You can go 2/9 on coinflips like the Brewers have since '08 (Not including the covid year).  That's not really all that unlikely from a statistical standpoint.

The odds of having two or fewer out of nine on coin flips is 9.0%

[Nola Beery]

Once we got going, I came to believe that this team was special enough to take that extra step.

Wrong!

My expectations are lower about next year (little chance of keeping Adames).  But baseball season can be a big tease.  So I wouldn't be shocked if we made the playoffs again.... and lost in the first round again. 

[Nola Beery]

22 minutes ago, Pugger said:

A lot of us are piling on blaming Williams for losing game 3 but it was a group effort.  A little more offensive production would have nice in this entire series.

Sure, a few more runs would have been great.  But DW flat-out failed in his only job; that's undeniable. 

That said, I was more upset by the defensive lapses in Game 1. Defense had been a strength, but that's where we really choked as a team.

[Brian]

10 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Clearing the bases in the 7th to go up 4-0 would have been huge. But nobody comes close to what Williams did. He deserves what he is getting.

Mets video: Devin Williams was tipping his pitches. Seems to happen a lot with the Brewers. Must watch.

https://www.tiktok.com/@jomboymedia/video/7421803600554347818

 

[Outlander]

Was at the game and appears pretty much everything has been covered already. Really could have used a dagger hit from Contreras in the 7th, if he wasn't good should have went with Mitchell there. The walk in the ninth bothered me but he came right back with a strikeout, it was that pitch to Nimmo on 0-2 that really hurt. Alonso up with two out and only 1 on and we probably get a different outcome.

[StearnsFTW]

10 hours ago, RobertCrawley said:

About what we got for Corbin. I'd prefer really good starting pitching prospects. We already have Megill as a closer.

I think you're going to be very disappointed.

I don't think we'll get a single prospect on the level of Hall/Ortiz let alone 2.

 

[StearnsFTW]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

1 really good prospect and probably 1  good prospect and 1 lottery ticket. 

So something like 1 top 50-100 ranked prospect, a teams 10-15 ranked prospect and then someone from the DSL. 

I think that is the best case scenario for Williams but probably something just a bit less than what the Brewers got for Burnes. 

Extremely optimistic.

[Jimbo]

Before Game 3, the Brewers were 94-3 when the win probability exceeded 90%.  To have just three gut wrenching losses over a season is quite exceptional.  That makes Thursday night harder to digest.

 

The fangraphs' box score had Williams at -0.85 and Alonso at +0.56.  Cannot remember the last thing seeing numbers like that.

 

I've never been keen to the idea of having four different guys pitch the last four innings.  Just increases the chances of one guy screwing up.  Forty years ago, Rollie would have pitched three innings in a game like this.  But that is how baseball is played now.  I get it.  The discussion at work this morning is 1) let Peralta pitch the ninth or 2) pull Williams after two batters.  But I understand Murphy's thinking.

 

This game reminds me of 2019 against the Nationals (although the Brewers were underdogs in that one).  Both three rounds removed from the WS, so either exit doesn't pain me as much as the rest of the posters.  Williams reminds me of Hader, just doesn't give that warm fuzzy feeling.  Seems to me they are either on, or you can tell within the first two batters disaster is about to happen.  Agree with the above poster about Megill, someone with a bulldog mindset/personna.

 

On edit: a silver lining, if any, is that when I'm in Florida the last week of the month, I can enjoy my vacation and not be in agony about missing the first WS in 42 years.  Going forward, no vacations mid-Sept to end-Oct.

[SoCalBrewfan]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I think he needs to go though. I'm sure he'll be successful elsewhere, but he's Brandon Bostick at this point. Too much association with pain to have him walking around.

I sincerely hope that the front office isn't as irrational about these things as fans seem to be. Williams will likely be traded in the offseason, but that's because he's a closer with a year before free agency, and trading in the offseason lets the team that acquires him give a QO and recoup a draft choice, which you hope will enhance the return. This game should not have any bearing on that decision.

People here said the same thing about Trent Grisham, but one moment in a playoff game doesn't say much if anything about a player's future. Grisham won (and deserved) two gold gloves with the Padres. 

I am convinced that fans and sportswriters care about these things a lot more than players and team management do. (Re: Bostick, that may be different in the NFL, which sometimes seems as though it is more ruled by emotions and personalities. See also Ty Montgomery and his kickoff disaster.)

Sucks to lose this one, even as I was telling myself we were playing with house money most of the year. Still, I feel way better about the trajectory of the team than I did in April.

[Austin Tatious]

10 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Alright All. I'm turning in. Stay tuned in the upcoming month or so. Spencer and I are going to do some deep dives into the Minor League side of the Brewers under the Brewers Fanatic podcast banner. You won't want to miss these. This is going to be two uber-nerds talking in depth about our system. I just did my post-season viewing tally last week - I watched 83% of all the full-season games this past season. I eclipsed last seasons 78%! Gotta lot of observations to add about the players I've watched and am excited to share it with the fanbase.

I have to wait a whole month?  Love both of your work.  It’s very appreciated and informative.  Are you the “Jack” on the podcasts? Or is that someone else?

[Joseph Zarr]

8 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

I have to wait a whole month?  Love both of your work.  It’s very appreciated and informative.  Are you the “Jack” on the podcasts? Or is that someone else?

The "Jack" on the podcasts is actually Jack.😁 Jack Sterns - he writes features here; has a press pass in the Brewers clubhouse etc. A real live young Brewers journo!

I'm just a guy who loves and religiously watches the Brewers Minor Leagues. I've never even met Jack - and, likely won't given where I live and his general dismissiveness of the Minors (tho, that may just be a schtick). Spencer is used to me expressing occasional Minor League thoughts in DM's.😅 Given he already does routine podcasts I figured I may as well poke the bear so to speak and take his already devout Minor League coverage to a new level of geekery. After this season, no better time than this Fall to make my podcast debut. Spencer will wrap up Fall Ball in a couple weeks and then we'll start scheming what this pod (or, let's be honest, pods) will look like. There's a ton of directions we could go. Excited to see where we land with it.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Potential Williams trade return should likely be elsewhere, but you can look at deadline closer and other high leverage reliever deals for guidance:

Tanner Scott, a pending FA, got a guy who had been org #2 and MLB top 50 (Snelling) and three other org top 30 (4, 5, and 24 in org), but there was a second Marlins pitcher involved with non-negligible value. Still, that's something to dream on. 

Old friend Lucas Erceg yielded the As three guys, org ranks 4, 18, and UR.

Old enemy Leiter Jr got two from the yankee's top 30.

Carlos Estevez (also a rental) was traded for two rising pitchers in the Phillies system, MLB says they would have been top 15 org guys in mid-season rerank.

Yimi Garcia (rental) got the M's #10 prospect, Clase.

[Brewcrew82]

All I know is that it’s about more than just winning the division for me next year. I want that playoff bye so bad, and in hindsight it hurts how close we came to getting it.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, gypcasino said:

And Ueck's a grumpy old man off mic. He's pretty low on my list of things to be sad about.

That's a significant part of the reason I feel that way.

I haven't had any direct contact with him but I have seen some things at public events and heard things from others that have had contact with him that are not very flattering.

[Nola Beery]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

All I know is that it’s about more than just winning the division for me next year. I want that playoff bye so bad, and in hindsight it hurts how close we came to getting it.

Yeah! Even WE cannot be eliminated in the bye-week!

(Just trying to divert my pain with lame humor.)

 

[Brewcrew82]

Was thinking about this last night as I was unable to sleep.

For as dominant as Devin is according to all the major statistics, there is just a tiny bit of variance with him because he relies so heavily on the changeup and doesn't really overpower guys with his fastball on its own. When he doesn't have pristine control of the changeup such as last night or in St. Louis, for example, he gets behind hitters who are able to wait him out until he either walks them or gives them a hittable pitch in the zone. 

This is one of the many reasons I'm in favor of trading him. I'd much rather rely on closers such as Megill or Clase or Hesley who simply overpower guys with their fastball even if it's left over the plate.