Devin Willams Trade

[Brewcrew82]

Good riddance. Time to cash out on this choker. Should be able to get a solid piece or two. 

[82brewcrew82]

I'll wager we get far less than this board thinks.

[Scooterfletcher]

Maybe a rental trade.   Bichette for Williams.

[nate82]

22 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Maybe a rental trade.   Bichette for Williams.

This trade makes zero sense for both teams involved.  If the Blue Jays are trading Bichette they would be trading him for prospects not for someone like Williams this is just video game trades dumb. 

The Brewers are not trading Williams for someone like Bichette.  They will want someone else in return like a prospect not someone who would be a FA after next season.

[Redd Vencher]

25 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

Maybe a rental trade.   Bichette for Williams.

Neither the Blue Jays nor Brewers would do this trade.

[Scooterfletcher]

Trade Williams to Boston for Braden Montgomery and Richard fitts.   If Boston would do it.

[Devinep]

Josh smith of the rangers to take over 3B

[LouisEly]

Baltimore needs a closer.  Brewers likely need an IF to replace Adames.

Williams + Peguero + Black + Lara for Jordan Westburg.

[Playing Catch]

I agree with 82Brewcrew82. I just have this feeling that the era of small-market teams fleecing the big boys of their prospects for one-year rental closers is over. Most teams' scouting and development is improving rapidly. Why pay for a reliever (in cash, or in prospects), when you can promote some 28-year-old fireballer for pennies?

If the Brewers can get one contributing regular with a few years of control, great! If they can get two or three prospects in a team's top 10-30 range, great! But I'd be really surprised to get a top 50 prospect in baseball.

As LouisEly just stated, if the Brewers want to get back a GOOD player, packaging Williams is probably the play.

[Madhawk23]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Baltimore needs a closer.  Brewers likely need an IF to replace Adames.

Williams + Peguero + Black + Lara for Jordan Westburg.

I don't hate this idea at all.  It's a lot to give up for one guy, but I don't think I'd lose sleep over losing any of those four guys - and Westburg would fill a HUGE need on our roster over the next 3-4 years.  

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

5 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I agree with 82Brewcrew82. I just have this feeling that the era of small-market teams fleecing the big boys of their prospects for one-year rental closers is over. Most teams' scouting and development is improving rapidly. Why pay for a reliever (in cash, or in prospects), when you can promote some 28-year-old fireballer for pennies?

If the Brewers can get one contributing regular with a few years of control, great! If they can get two or three prospects in a team's top 10-30 range, great! But I'd be really surprised to get a top 50 prospect in baseball.

As LouisEly just stated, if the Brewers want to get back a GOOD player, packaging Williams is probably the play.

I think you're really onto something about scouting and development. This is part of why the Brewers regular season run is so impressive. Literally everyone (okay, maybe not Colorado) has a smart front office and good scouting. Some teams have massive checkbooks too, due to the TV contract situation that creates such baseball inequality. Honestly, MLB is lucky the Brewers are so good. They help buck the payroll-winning correlation in ways that are probably helpful. That won't last forever. As others have said, it's probably going to be involved somehow as the next CBA gets negotiated.

I'm in for a Devin-centered package. I like LouisEly's proposal, though, man, both Lara and Black seems like a lot. Still. Probably worth it if we could do it.

[wiguy94]

6 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Baltimore needs a closer.  Brewers likely need an IF to replace Adames.

Williams + Peguero + Black + Lara for Jordan Westburg.

Baltimore would laugh you off the phone if you sent them that trade offer. Westburg put up about 3 fWAR in 450 PA with amazing underlying hitting numbers. You'd need Devin, 2 Top 100 prospects, and probably another sweetener to get Westburg. Not Devin, an average RP, and two huge arrow down prospects in Black and Lara.

[endaround]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Baltimore would laugh you off the phone if you sent them that trade offer. 

Yep.  Williams has like $8m in excess value, Lara about $6m,  Black maybe $4m.  Westburg is has an excess value of like $25m for next year alone.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, endaround said:

Yep.  Williams has like $8m in excess value, Lara about $6m,  Black maybe $4m.  Westburg is has an excess value of like $25m for next year alone.

Yupp. I edited my comment after you replied but you'd probably need Devin, Misiorowski, Pratt, and maybe another sweetener to get Westburg. Westburg without getting injured this year probably puts up a 4 fWAR season playing in a park that depresses his offensive value. He has 5 more years of team control. You'd need to give up a haul to get him.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Sticking with the Orioles, what about Devin plus for Urias, who I like quite a bit?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Sticking with the Orioles, what about Devin plus for Urias, who I like quite a bit?

I probably wouldn't even do Devin for Urias straight up. Urias has really fallen off defensively the last two seasons and is more an average to above average bat and a 2B than a 3B and good bat. If we are trading Devin, give me prospects that we can have 6+ years of control of over 2 years of a 30 year old Ramon Urias.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Sticking with the Orioles, what about Devin plus for Urias, who I like quite a bit?

Urias as a target would probably be a case of how do the Brewers assess his defense?

DRS has him +13 career at 3B in 2,184 innings compared to StatCast having him down for -8 FRV at 3B.

Another issue could be his lack of walks. Brewers ran the 2nd highest BB% in MLB this year, 3rd highest in 2023, 4th highest in 2022.

Urias has a 7.0% walk rate since 2022 which ranks 159th out of 230 batters with at least 1,000 PAs.

[TURBO]

7 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Baltimore needs a closer.  Brewers likely need an IF to replace Adames.

Williams + Peguero + Black + Lara for Jordan Westburg.

Baltimore will have Felix Bautista coming back as their closer.  Closer won't be on their to-do list in 2025.

[LouisEly]

22 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I edited my comment after you replied but you'd probably need Devin, Misiorowski, Pratt, and maybe another sweetener to get Westburg.

I think Arnold would laugh you off the phone for asking for one of the best pitching prospects in the game for Westburg, nevermind adding one of the best closers and one of the best SS prospects.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I think Arnold would laugh you off the phone for asking for one of the best pitching prospects in the game for Westburg, nevermind adding one of the best closers and one of the best SS prospects.

Yeah of course the Brewers wouldn't make that trade, but that's what Baltimore would be asking for if you sought out Westburg. Westburg has 48M surplus value per BTV which is probably underselling him a bit. You'd need a hell of a lot more to get him than 1 year of a great closer, an average RP with team control, a positionless prospect who has fallen off every Top 100 list due a down season, and a 5'6ish noodle bat CF prospect.

[Madhawk23]

Just curious, but what does Freddy have in terms of BTV?  I no longer have access to that site now that they put it all behind a paywall.  

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Just curious, but what does Freddy have in terms of BTV?  I no longer have access to that site now that they put it all behind a paywall.  

If you go to the trade boards you can search a players name as a workaround to see their value at least as recent as the last mock trade proposal they were involved in.

They have Freddy at $34M surplus value as of 9/28 which by my math seems fair. Figuring $8M per 1 WAR and Freddy having 2 years of control for $16M that would put his total value at about $50M or about 6 WAR. He's put up 5.3 fWAR and 6.4 RA9-WAR the last 2 seasons.

[Redd Vencher]

Boston had the 2nd most MD this year, and Kenley Jansen is a FA. Williams for INF Chase Meidroth (11th), RHP Richard Fitts (13th), SS/2B Mikey Romero (16th), and RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (7th) would be a nice deal. Not huge upside on any of these guys, but Meidroth and Fitts are big league ready, and Romero and Rodriguez-Cruz should be ready sometime next season. May have to add a Peguero to our end like the Tanner Scott trade.

[brewmann04]

Not sure but some one might be looking for a closer 

[SF70]

Just take the best deal for Williams and move on.

The money savings in what will be a potential title year is a bigger deal than $8M in surplus TV.

Trade Williams-Milner-Payamps-Peguero-Rea, trade or DFA Wilson and use the money savings to add a $5-10M FA starter and $7-15M 3B.