Game 10: Packers @ Bears - Sunday, Nov 17th at 12:00PM

[homer]

I make no apologies. The Packers have been on the other end of too many of these.recently. luck returns towards the mean.

[adambr2]

Really dumb by the Bears not to try to get a little closer for the FG, they had time and downs to do so. Even another 10 or 15 yards pretty much makes it a gimme. 46 is not a chip shot.

[yfinn6]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Really dumb by the Bears not to try to get a little closer for the FG, they had time and downs to do so. Even another 10 or 15 yards pretty much makes it a gimme. 46 is not a chip shot.

I personally thought it was a brilliant move. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, HarveysWBs said:

Finally got a Watson game, and they needed every yard of it. Still a long way to go, but it’s way better than an L.
 

Eleven in a row against a divisional opponent is so tough. First time that’s ever happened in the storied rivalry. Unbelievable comeback and special teams miracle.

I made a post in the Lions game that he is the biggest headscratcher on the roster for me. He is a phenomenal athlete and yes he's had injury problems, but even when healthy he just doesn't seem to do what he should be doing. I hope this was the the start of something. He is a physical freak with world-class speed.

[OldHeidelberg]

26 minutes ago, homer said:

I make no apologies. The Packers have been on the other end of too many of these.recently. luck returns towards the mean.

Me either, I thought it would be a tight game and we made some plays in the end and squeaked it out. Had Enegbare finished the sack on 3rd and 19 we would be celebrating the clutch play of Watson and Love. 7-3 and got a win we really needed, I don’t care about style points at all in the NFL. Lots of football left. 

[HarveysWBs]

17 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I made a post in the Lions game that he is the biggest headscracther on the roster for me. He is a phenomenal athlete and yes he's had injury problems, but even when healthy he just doesn't seem to do what he should be doing. I hope this was the the start of something. He is a physical freak with world-class speed.

Yeah, him figuring it out would be timely. Kraft is kind of disappearing out there after looking like he’s on a Kittle trajectory, and with everybody else not named Reed fighting themselves, it would be nice if the most gifted receiver on the roster showed up. Today is a start.

They’ve still got problems. No Jaire and no pass rush so the secondary looks pretty mortal. And maybe we need to just pay Hackett whatever he wants to come be the red zone offense specialist. He had a good couple years designing the “gold zone” packages or whatever. But one of those things is going to doom this team in the clutch. I’m just trying to enjoy the ride until then. Maybe I just don’t watch them in the playoffs?

[Joseph Zarr]

 

[Joseph Zarr]

(Profanity...but well well worth it)

 

 

[HarryDoyle]

12 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

(Profanity...but well well worth it)

 

 

"Caleb Williams, if you can hear me" LOL. No dude, he can't hear you from your house.

 

I love when Tik Tokers make their vid, hit send and show the entire world why they're at the bottom of the Darwin food chain.

[yourout]

19 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

(Profanity...but well well worth it)

 

 

That guy needs to be on suicide watch.

[endaround]

Walker is often out of position but here he is in position and just can't stop the back.  I don't really know what is going to happen with him

https://youtu.be/VS26PjZJDG8?si=PORXe8acVzZ3Uy0y&t=271

 

[BruisedCrew]

The most frustrating thing about that game was how the Bears and their supposedly inept offense made significant advances on every possession, even when they started deep in their own territory.

Looking at the play by play summary, the Bears shortest drive in their 7 possessions was their first that went 8 plays for 34 yards and a long FG. They were 9 for 16 on third down conversions and 3 for 3 on 4th downs. In other words, they had 16 third downs and eventually picked up a first down on 12 of them. 

The Packers were lucky the Bears didn’t try to move the ball closer in the last minute instead of running down the clock and settling tfor the longer FG attempt. 

Not counting the kneel down at the end of the half the Packers only had 6 possessions and either scored a TD or moved inside the Bears 10 on all but one of them. But, because they moved quickly and only got to third down 5 times, it seemed like the Bears had the ball most of the game.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

it seemed like the Bears had the ball most of the game.

Bears had an extra 12:40 in time of possession and ran twenty five more plays than the Packers, but it only resulted in twenty five additional yards and one fewer point.

Gotta be pretty frustrating.

[homer]

not making excuses but I don't think a lot of what the Bears did on offense was on tape. 

 

[HarveysWBs]

Also, the Bears clearly made a concerted effort to sacrifice the vast majority of their playbook that involved downfield throws in exchange for quick hitters. This kept Williams clean until the 4th quarter, avoided the big mistake, and took advantage of a Packers defense that eschews man coverage, especially when Ja is out of the lineup (which is now all the time, apparently).

Relatedly, this is why I was cool with the 4th down and goal to go attempt that resulted in a Love scramble to the 2. Maybe not a great play call (do we have any plays that work down there?), but the decision was fine. We made them have to drive the length of the field with their dink and dunk garbage, and all we needed was one mistake on first down to get them behind the sticks and we forced a punt. Ball possession offense is fine, but it's a lot of pressure to execute. A drop or a sack can gum up the works in a hurry.

Our offense, by comparison, continues to hunt big plays and it won the day today. I still think they can execute better on the short to midrange stuff by the end of the season, there's too much ability on the field and in the coaching staff to write the offense off as entirely broken.

The thing that worries me, however, is what a more competent team (next week's 49ers, for instance) will realize it can accomplish based on what the Bears (and Lions) just put on tape. I know they just lost today, but that matchup worries me.

[young guns]

1 hour ago, homer said:

not making excuses but I don't think a lot of what the Bears did on offense was on tape. 

 

This is why I don't put much stock in this game for the defense and also why I was a bit worried coming in.  They literally changed their offense this week.  The first 9 games of tape might as well have been thrown out the window.

[OldHeidelberg]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Really dumb by the Bears not to try to get a little closer for the FG, they had time and downs to do so. Even another 10 or 15 yards pretty much makes it a gimme. 46 is not a chip shot.

They had just the one timeout that they wanted to save for the end since we used ours up. A holding penalty there is a disaster, a turnover worse so really they are doing one more up the middle plunge anyway. I would have liked to get closer if it was the Packers but I can see both sides of it based on the situation.

[adambr2]

3 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

They had just the one timeout that they wanted to save for the end since we used ours up. A holding penalty there is a disaster, a turnover worse so really they are doing one more up the middle plunge anyway. I would have liked to get closer if it was the Packers but I can see both sides of it based on the situation.

MLF for some bizarre reason called his 3rd timeout after the completion to KA with 35 seconds left. Chicago had the timeout in their pocket and a 1st and 10 at the 30. They had the whole field to use, could run or pass the ball, and another 10 or 15 yards basically ices it.

[CheezWizHed]

 

  Love's int was pretty brutal and game-changing.  He now has 11 in 8 games (or 23 in a full season).  He really has to figure this out.  The game might've been easy but turned into a nail biter because of that.

Doubs and Kraft mysteriously disappeared from the game. Not sure if Chicago was able to shut them down or if we just didn't have a good plan? Lack of consistency in the WR outside of Reed is frustrating. 

Watson got all the oohs and aahs because of 4 big plays, but Jacobs carried the team today. 

DL - we finally got to the QB that last drive, but I think we celebrated too early.  Maybe less posing for the camera and more ensuring your teammates are likewise engaged. 

39 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

...especially when Ja is out of the lineup (which is now all the time, apparently).

Nah... just against NFC North games. 🙄

39 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

Our offense, by comparison, continues to hunt big plays and it won the day today. I still think they can execute better on the short to midrange stuff by the end of the season, there's too much ability on the field and in the coaching staff to write the offense off as entirely broken.

The thing that worries me, however, is what a more competent team (next week's 49ers, for instance) will realize it can accomplish based on what the Bears (and Lions) just put on tape. I know they just lost today, but that matchup worries me.

I think the 49ers would have a harder time executing the same thing.  I would assume we played a ton of zone given William's ability to run the ball.  Thus wanting the defense staring at the QB instead of running with their backs turned to him. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

Yeah, him figuring it out would be timely. Kraft is kind of disappearing out there after looking like he’s on a Kittle trajectory, and with everybody else not named Reed fighting themselves, it would be nice if the most gifted receiver on the roster showed up. Today is a start.

They’ve still got problems. No Jaire and no pass rush so the secondary looks pretty mortal. And maybe we need to just pay Hackett whatever he wants to come be the red zone offense specialist. He had a good couple years designing the “gold zone” packages or whatever. But one of those things is going to doom this team in the clutch. I’m just trying to enjoy the ride until then. Maybe I just don’t watch them in the playoffs?

I don't think anything's really changed with Kraft. He's still getting open. Love just has had a...kinda start and stop season. Week 1, no snaps in the pre-season, all those guys slipping and falling, but he gets hurt. Then he comes back...he's off, but they're dropping balls and Kraft does look great. 

It's been a weird year for the offense. I still believe in all the guys I believed in coming into the year, Musgrave included. Wicks has been...bad, but he gets open. 

 

The real problem is in paragraph 2. I was all for an OT...and I even said Morgan(he was behind Guyton on my list)...but damn, if we could do it over again, when Mitchell fell past 20, I'd move up and get him. He and DeJean just...fit so damn well. 

The thing I didn't see coming was this DL. Jaire getting banged up, that was predictable. But if you have a pass rush you can overcome that. A mediocre pass rush but a really good secondary, same, you can overcome it. But a mediocre pass rush and secondary? We saw a little more life from them, but not enough. 

To the Bears credit, they had a good game plan and played to Caleb's strengths. We should also keep in mind, they do have 2 legit #1 WRs and a guy in Odunze with a ton of talent...plus Kmet. A lot of talent, but they gotta get Jaire healthy. 

[BrewerFan]

17 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Doubs and Kraft mysteriously disappeared from the game. Not sure if Chicago was able to shut them down or if we just didn't have a good plan? Lack of consistency in the WR outside of Reed is frustrating. 

I think it's the game plan or Love missing. The ball that was a pick, Kraft was wide open(I don't actually remember if it was thrown to him or just went right over his head). It feels like we've changed our scheme up a bit. Less outside zone...as a result, less boot legs off the PA and fewer easy completions to Kraft. 

It's certainly an easier fix if it's Love and the game plan. MLF is proven, but now we need to see the version of Love we saw last year down the stretch. Wicks catching the ball would help also. 

[homer]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's the game plan or Love missing. The ball that was a pick, Kraft was wide open(I don't actually remember if it was thrown to him or just went right over his head). It feels like we've changed our scheme up a bit. Less outside zone...as a result, less boot legs off the PA and fewer easy completions to Kraft. 

It's certainly an easier fix if it's Love and the game plan. MLF is proven, but now we need to see the version of Love we saw last year down the stretch. Wicks catching the ball would help also. 

I think they miss Jones on O. more because of his versatility. Jacobs has been better than I thought he'd be but he's more or less a between the tackles guy. Jones could run more of a route tree and get outside. I think the defense had to pay more attention to him which maybe opened things up for other guys.

[adambr2]

Was MLFs decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 6 early in the 4th quarter rather than kick the FG to make it 19-17 supported by analytics? It seemed like a lot more of an emotional decision than a rational one. 

[adambr2]

11 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

 

Relatedly, this is why I was cool with the 4th down and goal to go attempt that resulted in a Love scramble to the 2. Maybe not a great play call (do we have any plays that work down there?), but the decision was fine. We made them have to drive the length of the field with their dink and dunk garbage, and all we needed was one mistake on first down to get them behind the sticks and we forced a punt. Ball possession offense is fine, but it's a lot of pressure to execute. A drop or a sack can gum up the works in a hurry.

I will contradict my previous post a bit for a minute by agreeing with this and noting that this is something that is often overlooked by the “take the points” crowd.

The risk/reward is not as simple there as a guaranteed 3 points versus a possible 6-8 points. If you forego the 3 guaranteed  points and go for the 6-8 and fail, you still get a “consolation prize”, for lack of a better term, of 25 yards of field position versus position on the field if you take the 3 points.

Getting nerdy and analytical here for a moment, a drive starting from your own 5 yard line has an expected value of -1.3 points, versus +0.2 starting from your own 30. These are obviously just general estimates with no game context, but they give us some rudimentary idea of the value of field position.

So by taking the 3 points and losing the field position, you’re really only gaining +1.5 points in expected value.

Now obviously, there’s plenty of times and situations where that guaranteed 3 points is really needed, so situations can vary, but they give us more insight into what coaches are thinking about going for it down there.

[homer]

27 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Was MLFs decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 6 early in the 4th quarter rather than kick the FG to make it 19-17 supported by analytics? It seemed like a lot more of an emotional decision than a rational one. 

I believe I saw that it was a coin flip