Packers 2025 offseason

[BrewerFan]

On 2/7/2025 at 3:46 AM, HarryDoyle said:

Sterling Sharpe finally will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame!

Long overdue. He played before the rules swung even more for the offenses with the illegal contract rules that came in around 2004 and the head-to-head, defenseless receiver.

He was "just" 6' 210 and the Packers didn't have a viable #2 options until his last year and they got Robert Brooks, but he would still take a 4 yard hitch and pick up 10 yards finishing the run like Josh Jacobs just punishing CBs. And, of course, he could take the top off the defense as well.

 

Gotta be the last Packers player who isn't active(Rodgers, maybe Adams) who should get in at the moment. We got Kramer and Butler in.

Maybe Bakh will be healthy NEXT year and he'll finish with a good 4-5 year stretch to get into the HOF.

I hear his workouts are going well and he's really ready to get back!

 

[LouisEly]

13 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Can you remember a time when an NFL team traded a 1st rd pick and they protected a 1st? I don't believe you can and that's half the reason you trade for future 1sts.

All they need to do is make it a 2nd that upgrades to a 1st if the team has more than X number of wins (say, 7), that should make it a first but not if it's a top-10-ish, which is usually teams with 6 or fewer wins.  That condition makes it very likely that it's a first, but should protect it from being a top-10 pick.  If a team is really good, it's likely that they will be good the next year as well which almost guarantees a first.

My point stands though, you should never, ever trade an unconditional future 1st.

[JosephC]

16 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Everyone keeps forgetting about Wyatt!

You are correct.  Sorry about that.

Eric Stokes AV in 2024 = 3

Quay Walker AV in 2024 = 6

Devonte Wyatt AV in 2024 = 2

Lukas Van Ness AV in 2024 = 2

Jordan Morgan AV in 2024 = 1

Myles Garrett AV in 2024 = 17

 

[Sixtolezcano]

The 49er’s have granted Deebo Samuel his trade request this weekend. A 3rd round draft pick should get him on a jet to Green Bay. Sounds like a perfect answer to the Packers issues at WR.

[BrewerFan]

On 2/9/2025 at 10:12 AM, LouisEly said:

All they need to do is make it a 2nd that upgrades to a 1st if the team has more than X number of wins (say, 7), that should make it a first but not if it's a top-10-ish, which is usually teams with 6 or fewer wins.  That condition makes it very likely that it's a first, but should protect it from being a top-10 pick.  If a team is really good, it's likely that they will be good the next year as well which almost guarantees a first.

My point stands though, you should never, ever trade an unconditional future 1st.

Yeah, but...teams don't do that and the Browns, Raiders...they don't trade players like that for conditional picks. A conditional 2nd.

Why would they when there are so many who are willing to give up 2 1sts? I'm thinking Seattle for Adams, The Packers with the Saints, KC when they drafted Mahomes. I don't recall the Giants trade that netted tham multiple 1sts, the Texans did it with the Cards.

 

Would you accept a 1st and then a conditional 2nd for a Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby type player?

Nick Bosa, maybe Chris Jones, Quinnen Williams, Micah Parsons, TJ Watt, Aiden Hutchinson definitely Dexter Lawrence I'd say Jevon Carter is...close to that level but not there yet. Jeffery Simmons, Barmore...Trayvon Walker are also probably guys who would comment a 1st, but not another first.

Sure I'm missing plenty like Thibs from the Giants, DeForest Buckner. Oh, and Will Anderson is almost certainly someone who is worth two 1sts....

 

But say you have TJ Watt. Are you saying give us the 23rd pick and a 2nd next year just in case you suck? No, the potential that you end up with two premier picks is exactly what makes you take that pick.

The NBA you protect your picks. For middling QBs, MAYBE and even then, it's tied to playing time more often than wins and losses. I don't remember one tied to wins or losses. Favre? Wentz and Rodgers were playing time.

 

 

I think the idea makes sense, it's just not how NFL teams operate.

[BrewerFan]

On 2/9/2025 at 12:31 PM, JosephC said:

You are correct.  Sorry about that.

Eric Stokes AV in 2024 = 3

Quay Walker AV in 2024 = 6

Devonte Wyatt AV in 2024 = 2

Lukas Van Ness AV in 2024 = 2

Jordan Morgan AV in 2024 = 1

Myles Garrett AV in 2024 = 17

 

Yeah, it wasn't about him being a bust so much as...just several comments about our last 3 first and no mention of him.

AV isn't a very good way to evaluate players either. I don't think it really shows how great Garrett has been. If this was Baseball I suspect it'd be ~60WAR or more and of the rest, maybe Stokes has 2.5 or so as a rookie, Stokes, Quay was best as a rookie, but in MLB terms, I think you have about 6-7 WAR combined.

 

In fairness, Garrett was the 1st overall pick and we normally pick late and you have a pretty good chance to get a star early. Bosa, Hutch, Jevon Carter, all players who went in the top 10 for the 3 most physical teams in the NFC(Sewell is another) who changed their front.

I still believe the Eagles make a move for one of the two(or three with Trey Hendrickson, but I'm not giving up a 2nd 1st for him).

Gutey's comments. And remember, they were in on Mack and lost because the Raiders thought the Bears picks would be better;

“When you trade a high pick for a veteran player, you’re trading a young, really good contract for a player who’s proven but is probably expensive,” Gutekunst mentioned. “I think you’ve got to weigh that. And if it’s the right player, if you feel like he can be a dynamic player who can change your football team, I think you’ve got to consider that because there’s not many of those guys out there. But I think you have to also understand what you’re giving up.

 

They mention Josh Sweat, Mack among others as FA optins and then again, Garrett, Crosby and Hendrickson as trade options.

Also worth noting, Myles Garrett, 92.5 PFF grade. #92.4 Pass Rush 2/211 Run D 78.4 #11/211(really well rounded). 
Maxx Crosby 74.1 35/211 overall, 70.1 43/211 73.0 Run Grade 24/211
Crosby was banged up and had his worst rated grades in a few years and a 1.5 years yonger than Garrett and over 3 years younger than Hendrickson.

Trey Hendrickson 88.1 overall(8 of 211), 90.4 pass rush #5/211  Run D 65.9 67/211

 

And one last note, Packers DL was graded 11th coming into last season. Gary, Clark, Preston Smith, Wyatt, LVN, Preston Smith, Enagbare...should have been one of the ~10 best DLs. With one of these three, they almost certainly would be.

[Joseph Zarr]

I knew WR drops were a significant issue this season for the Packers. And, well, it definitely was a massive issue:

That's nuts. Their League leading drop rate was nearly 2x the League average. This being said, Love also misfired 43 throws in 461 total pass attempts (2 pt attempts included). That's a pretty poor 9.3% misfire rate (I don't know what League averages are here but this would appear quite high).

The cumulative impacts of the passing game inefficiencies go without saying.

[CheezWizHed]

Not debating that our WR hands were poor, but this is why statistics can be deceiving...  The post says to cut his drops in half (to 17) to show he'd be up with Mahomes.  But Mahomes' WRs had 27 drops, so not exactly an apt comparison. 

Though seeing the Eagles at 7 drops and the Lions at 12 drops is impressive...

[HarryDoyle]

From Demovsky's column on espn.com;

There are strong indications that Jaire Alexander's time with the Packers will end without him playing another down. Multiple team sources have privately expressed their frustration with Alexander's inability to stay healthy and/or play through injuries.

[LouisEly]

1 minute ago, HarryDoyle said:

From Demovsky's column on espn.com;

There are strong indications that Jaire Alexander's time with the Packers will end without him playing another down. Multiple team sources have privately expressed their frustration with Alexander's inability to stay healthy and/or play through injuries.

For the $17.5M in cash he is due next year, they can probably find someone almost as good either through FA (consider the $17.5M in cash to be a signing bonus) or trade ($17.5M in salary) who will be a lot more available and reliable.

Barron is going to have the most experience among draftable CBs, but he'll be almost 24 when the season starts and the Packers generally don't like to have a 2nd contract extend into a player's 30's. 

[CheezWizHed]

With Nixon and Valentine at outside CB, they aren't in a terrible position even without Alexander. Add in a FA and a 2nd round CB and move on. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

For the $17.5M in cash he is due next year, they can probably find someone almost as good either through FA (consider the $17.5M in cash to be a signing bonus) or trade ($17.5M in salary) who will be a lot more available and reliable.

Barron is going to have the most experience among draftable CBs, but he'll be almost 24 when the season starts and the Packers generally don't like to have a 2nd contract extend into a player's 30's. 

Barron is also by most accounts a safety who can cover in the slot. A Brian Branch. An oustanding player, but after putting so many resources into safety last yer with a ~18M AAV signing in McKinney, a 2nd rd pick, a 4th and a 5th rd pick to move up for Williams, Oladapo...he's not the type of guy the Packers should be targeting at CB.

Even if Barron can play CB...he'd be more of a Ronde Barber type. He's a zone corner. Texas dropped 7 and rushed 4 most of the year. They had a coulple of studs on that DL who were Freshmen and another a Soph. So they got pressure, but I don't think he's as good of a corner as Cooper DeJean and many didn't want DeJean as an outside CB. Safety, Star/Nickel, yeah, but not boundary CB.

Press corners make more sense.

 

Until we know what the actual cap is...which should be announced in the next week or so(maybe 2 weeks) and I'm guessing will be ~280 but could come in around 285...leaving a LOT of teams with a LOT of cap room, I still think it makes the most sense to keep Jaire one more year while adding a couple CBs. 

Thomas from FSU reminds me the most of Mitchell from last year. Revel, if he tests as expected has a Antonio Cromartie type profile.
Morrison was on track to be a top 10 pick.

 

Assuming we don't get a big upgrade long the DL, we're still going to need a vet. Doubt we'd go from Jaire to Asante Samuel Jr, Paulson Adebo, or get a vet and go with Stephon Gilmore.

 

I don't think 17M is all that much to pay for a CB, especially as you have no depth there. At the very least, see how the market develops. You're in no rush to cut Jaire. If you can trade him, that's different, but I don't see anyone taking on that deal knowing he'll likely become a FA.

 

Best case
Rd1 Revel, Morrison, Trade down
Rd2-Deon Walker, Zabel, Azareye'h Thomas
Rd3-Mbow, Zy Alexander, Collins(DT Texas).

A CB, DL and someone who can slide in and start at Guard or Center would be perfect.

I think Revel will test great and Morrison will also be gone before us(and I don't think we trade up this year)..
So I'm going with option B. Trade up and try and attack it with numbers. Easy to trade down in mocks, but these seemed like good deals(probably too good and one extra pick. Either 93 or 111 if not more, but that's what was offered.

 

I don't like Amos. Should have just taken Thomas, but...it's an outline from a fansite, so...and then Kobe King. I think he could be a base 2-down starter. Not Yr1, but in another year. Combine changes all of this. Savion Williams runs a 4.4, he's an early 2nd. I really like Isiah Bond from UT. He's Jayden Reed, but with 4.3 speed IMO(And just not as tough, but a willing blocker).

Deone Walker and Grey Zabel could make or break a draft. You could get a couple of 1st division starters, Zabel an AP at C/OG or a PB at OT.

 

Change the names and I'm good, just...fine an impact starter on the OL, a high upside guy on the DL(both dominated the Sr Bowl) and at CB, wouldn't be surprised if Alexander is the better CB than Amos, but I'm going off projected draft status.

Thoughts Louis? Any favorites?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

On 2/9/2025 at 2:03 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

The 49er’s have granted Deebo Samuel his trade request this weekend. A 3rd round draft pick should get him on a jet to Green Bay. Sounds like a perfect answer to the Packers issues at WR.

I would really prefer the Packers add a bigger WR especially with Watson gone maybe forever. Someone like the Higgins variety even if he isn't realistic.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I would really prefer the Packers add a bigger WR especially with Watson gone maybe forever. Someone like the Higgins variety even if he isn't realistic.

As I read more and more about Higgins, I think he should be our #1 target.  And I don't know why he wouldn't be realistic? I doubt Cincinnati tags him to be their #2 WR.  Perhaps he loves it there and signs a decent contract?  But other than staying, I think the Packers have to be as interesting any anyone else - young ascending QB, cap room to meet any offer, clear need for a #1 with a room full of young WRs. 

I read people (sports articles) say dumb things like, "we need a speed WR and he won't take the top off the defense".  I saw one article suggest we resign MVS instead (really???).  

Higgins will be a good outside blocker, a great chain mover (basically Doubs role right now).  Let Reed and Watson take the top off the defense... I'd prefer Love focus a bit more on keeping drives alive and less on gunning the ball downfield. 

[RedStickBrew]

22 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

As I read more and more about Higgins, I think he should be our #1 target.  And I don't know why he wouldn't be realistic? I doubt Cincinnati tags him to be their #2 WR.  Perhaps he loves it there and signs a decent contract?  But other than staying, I think the Packers have to be as interesting any anyone else - young ascending QB, cap room to meet any offer, clear need for a #1 with a room full of young WRs. 

I read people (sports articles) say dumb things like, "we need a speed WR and he won't take the top off the defense".  I saw one article suggest we resign MVS instead (really???).  

Higgins will be a good outside blocker, a great chain mover (basically Doubs role right now).  Let Reed and Watson take the top off the defense... I'd prefer Love focus a bit more on keeping drives alive and less on gunning the ball downfield. 

I would love to see Higgins signed, then draft Tre Harris in the second round. 

[GAME05]

41 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I doubt Cincinnati tags him to be their #2 WR

Why not Transition Tag him? Either they pay him less than market value for a year or they get a 2nd rounder out of him leaving. Win-win.

[OldHeidelberg]

7 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Why not Transition Tag him? Either they pay him less than market value for a year or they get a 2nd rounder out of him leaving. Win-win.

They don't get compensation with a transition tag, just the right to match the offer.

 

I would love Higgins but I also think Davante would be a great pickup and he is reportedly interested in coming back. He hasn't lost a step from what I saw last year and would come cheaper than Higgins, at least talking guaranteed money. Love really needs a guy who can just get open when they need it and score in the red zone. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

As I read more and more about Higgins, I think he should be our #1 target.  And I don't know why he wouldn't be realistic? I doubt Cincinnati tags him to be their #2 WR.  Perhaps he loves it there and signs a decent contract?  But other than staying, I think the Packers have to be as interesting any anyone else - young ascending QB, cap room to meet any offer, clear need for a #1 with a room full of young WRs. 

I read people (sports articles) say dumb things like, "we need a speed WR and he won't take the top off the defense".  I saw one article suggest we resign MVS instead (really???).  

Higgins will be a good outside blocker, a great chain mover (basically Doubs role right now).  Let Reed and Watson take the top off the defense... I'd prefer Love focus a bit more on keeping drives alive and less on gunning the ball downfield. 

He played on the tag last season. There is a report out yesterday that they are doing it again.

[LouisEly]

17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Thoughts Louis? Any favorites?

Morrison - very wary of him.  Hip surgery for a CB scares me - CBs need to have swivel hips, and I'm not sure if he'll have that coming off of hip surgery.

Deone Walker - concerns about him being too tall for an interior defender, not being able to get or sustain a low enough pad level, some concerns about conditioning correlating with a high pad level.  Ideal 5-tech for a 3-4 team, but that's not GB's defense anymore.

Zy Alexander - would not mind at all if they grabbed him in the 3rd, maybe even 2nd.  Lots of experience going against SEC offenses as well as Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas in practice.

Amos - safest bet at CB, good length.  Not sure about #23, but would love to slide down 8-10 spots and grab him and an extra pick in the process.

Hairston - warming on me, shoulder surgery concerns me a bit after dealing with that with Jaire, but that may be more on Jaire.  Looked good at the Senior Bowl, if the medicals and toughness checks out would be good with him in the 2nd.

Porter - was a WR until 2022.  Great length and athleticism for a CB, clocked at almost 22mph at the Senior Bowl.  Still a bit raw, but understands the game from the receiver's lens and is nowhere near his ceiling.

Revel - need to see how he runs.  Can't have a CB lose any speed after ACL surgery.

Quincy Riley and O'Donnell Fourtune I think are underrated and would be great picks on Day 3 if still there.

[JosephC]

8 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

He played on the tag last season. There is a report out yesterday that they are doing it again.

I saw that too.  Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Bengals are likely to franchise Tee Higgins.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 hours ago, JosephC said:

I saw that too.  Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Bengals are likely to franchise Tee Higgins.

They are likely to sign him to a long-term deal, and use the tag if they can't get it done prior to March 4.

[SeaBass]

The Franchise Tag for Higgins would be for $26.17 million. That's probably less than what his AAV would be with a new long term contract. Of course you tag him if it comes to that point. It's a bargain.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

That $26.2 million is fully guaranteed and counts toward the salary cap so it really isn't a great deal for them. They are incentivized to sign him long term, which I would almost guarantee happens because he wants to be there.

When Justin Jefferson signed last year the cap hit for the first two seasons was just under $24 million total and the entire contract has $88 million in guarantees. Cincy will be around $48 million in guarantees and cap hits for 2 seasons. They need the cap room to improve their defense because their offense is championship ready.

[SeaBass]

On 2/19/2025 at 8:11 AM, OldSchoolSnapper said:

That $26.2 million is fully guaranteed and counts toward the salary cap so it really isn't a great deal for them. They are incentivized to sign him long term, which I would almost guarantee happens because he wants to be there.

When Justin Jefferson signed last year the cap hit for the first two seasons was just under $24 million total and the entire contract has $88 million in guarantees. Cincy will be around $48 million in guarantees and cap hits for 2 seasons. They need the cap room to improve their defense because their offense is championship ready.

That's true but it was also true last season when his tag was only around $4M to $5M less than it will be this season. Also saw yesterday that the NFL is increasing the salary cap for 2025 by a minimum of $22M (and maybe more) over last season so I think they can fit him in. Again, it's definitely not preferred, agreeing on a multiyear contract is much more beneficial, but they aren't going to just let him go either.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It is likely he does get tagged but it will probably only be a short-term thing until they sign him to a larger deal.