Sell or win now?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Its been a disappointing season so far but its far from over.  Do you think the Brewers will sell off players or hang tight and wait for bounce-backs from Contreras, Yelich, and Chourio? Or do they take a third option and trade off some players but get major league players back to address SS or 3b?  They are currently 4th in the division, but they have the talent to make a run.

Upcoming free agents (or mutual option decisions) are: Hoskins, Quintana, Woodruff, Civale, Nestor

Other players they could trade: Freddy, Bauers, Haas

I think Hoskins is gone regardless. Quintana also is likely gone if he can show he is healthy.   Woodruff is a more difficult one.  Long term Brewer may cause some pause to trade him, but I think they dump that salary as soon as he shows he has recovered. Bauers, Haas, Civale wont net much but maybe a lotto ticket.  If Nestor comes back soon enough, maybe, but I doubt he would have much value.  Freddy is the wild card.  He could net a huge haul with his team friendly contract.  If the right deal is there, they will go for it, but its got to be overwhelming.

I think the Brewers will target close to major league talent (AA/AAA prospects).  They have depth at 1b (Ernesto, Bauers, Black) and they already have an excess of SPs. So, it makes sense they will trade off talent to make room for prospects.  I think even if they sell off a few depth pieces (Hoskins, Quintana, Woodruff) they could still finish above 500, but not if Freddy is also traded.

Just Baseball discussed this topic yesterday in one of their segments.

 

[SF70]

13 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Its been a disappointing season so far but its far from over.  Do you think the Brewers will sell off players or hang tight and wait for bounce-backs from Contreras, Yelich, and Chourio? Or do they take a third option and trade off some players but get major league players back to address SS or 3b?  They are currently 4th in the division, but they have the talent to make a run.

Upcoming free agents (or mutual option decisions) are: Hoskins, Quintana, Woodruff, Civale, Nestor

Other players they could trade: Freddy, Bauers, Haas

I think Hoskins is gone regardless. Quintana also is likely gone if he can show he is healthy.   Woodruff is a more difficult one.  Long term Brewer may cause some pause to trade him, but I think they dump that salary as soon as he shows he has recovered. Bauers, Haas, Civale wont net much but maybe a lotto ticket.  If Nestor comes back soon enough, maybe, but I doubt he would have much value.  Freddy is the wild card.  He could net a huge haul with his team friendly contract.  If the right deal is there, they will go for it, but its got to be overwhelming.

I think the Brewers will target close to major league talent (AA/AAA prospects).  They have depth at 1b (Ernesto, Bauers, Black) and they already have an excess of SPs. So, it makes sense they will trade off talent to make room for prospects.  I think even if they sell off a few depth pieces (Hoskins, Quintana, Woodruff) they could still finish above 500, but not if Freddy is also traded.

Just Baseball discussed this topic yesterday in one of their segments.

 

I think we keep Woodruff and offer a QO. If he accepts we likely get a better version of Woodruff 2.5 years post-surgery and if he turns it down we get the pick/pool money.

A ‘26 rotation lead by Woodruff-Peralta with Misiorowski-Henderson-Patrick-Gasser-Myers and more upper minors SP depth would likely give the ‘26 team a great shot to compete for the Central.

 

[Brian]

The season is not even 2 months old but when the time comes I'm sure we will be sellers. 

I won't raise the white surrender flag until we are double digits out of 1st. 

[umphrey]

It really comes down to playoff odds at the deadline and I don't think they sell unless they are down at 1% or 2%. If the pitchers are healthy then they have to sell some guys no matter what, or maybe they just never get healthy. I think we are on track for a light sell like re tool for next year with Hoskins and a pitcher or 2. 

[umphrey]

Also with Hoskins, he's playing well enough that we can consider some other scenarios besides salary dump or walk in FA. If his numbers really pop and he's looking at 3+ years $20m AAV, that could be a QO and a win/win whether he takes it or leaves it. If less like 1-2 years and $10m-$15m AAV then maybe we should just re sign him because who else is going to play 1B next year. 

[Brian]

22 hours ago, umphrey said:

Also with Hoskins, he's playing well enough that we can consider some other scenarios besides salary dump or walk in FA. If his numbers really pop and he's looking at 3+ years $20m AAV, that could be a QO and a win/win whether he takes it or leaves it. If less like 1-2 years and $10m-$15m AAV then maybe we should just re sign him because who else is going to play 1B next year. 

Hoskins is doing fine this year unless we bring up EMJ from Nashville to split time with Bauers. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

I think we keep Woodruff and offer a QO. If he accepts we likely get a better version of Woodruff 2.5 years post-surgery and if he turns it down we get the pick/pool money.

A ‘26 rotation lead by Woodruff-Peralta with Misiorowski-Henderson-Patrick-Gasser-Myers and more upper minors SP depth would likely give the ‘26 team a great shot to compete for the Central.

My gut tells me neither Peralta nor Woodruff will be dealt at the deadline so “not trading Peralta” will be the next big source of consternation.

If Peralta is dealt & the return is anything less than a Consensus Top Ten Big Name kind of prospect (even though Freddy’s “never been an Ace”) then it’ll be “selling low on Peralta” instead.

[wallus]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

My gut tells me neither Peralta nor Woodruff will be dealt at the deadline so “not trading Peralta” will be the next big source of consternation.

If Peralta is dealt & the return is anything less than a Consensus Top Ten Big Name kind of prospect (even though Freddy’s “never been an Ace”) then it’ll be “selling low on Peralta” instead.

I would be open to trading Peralta if the return is large. We definitely have learned this season that you need a ton of starters to make it through a season so keeping him would be fine. I really like our future rotation but it would be incredibly young and a couple of vets wouldn't hurt anything.

[wallus]

I would lean towards heavily selling this deadline. The team has a fair amount of vets that likely won't be back next year. I think it's time to see what we have in our first wave of young guys that are in AAA or on the big league team. No reason to hang onto Hoskins, Civale, Quintana or Cortes.

I would make most of the bullpen guys available too if the price is right, Megill, Koenig, Mears especially. 

Let's call up EMJ, Black, Seigler, CRod and see if they will be part of the future or not.

While moving those guys, I would also consider adding another infielder that has team control beyond this season. Urias and Lowe would be possibilities. 

It's probably not likely to see this much movement, but the roster definitely needs a major re-tooling.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, umphrey said:

 I think we are on track for a light sell like re tool for next year with Hoskins and a pitcher or 2. 

This looks like the most likely scenario to me. If the organization can finally get smiled upon regarding health, there's enough depth especially in starting pitching to feel pretty good moving forward. If that health is realized there will be interesting decisions coming up before the deadline, even if they're still looking to make a push. You can always find teams looking to add to the rotation, and we might be sitting pretty in that regard.

[harrydalton]

Trade prospects not too encouraging to me.

Most of those veterans likely to be made available will be seen as salary dumps by prospective "buyers" and won't fetch much player return at all.

[wntrtxn21]

Sell-Sell-Sell.  The Brewers chance of going to the W.S. is somewhere around 1/2 of 1%. Retool for next year and beyond. Peralta is obviously the gem and if traded, he has to bring immediate offensive help plus something else. I believe Milwaukee may opt to keep Quintana or Woody to go along with the bunch of young guys who are ready for their shot.  Losing Peralta is ok if he brings help that is badly needed. I don't think Milwaukee will offer Hoskins a qualifying offer, so he is probably gone. If he brings something decent make the deal.  Cortes and Civale won't bring much of anything.

[brewers888]

None of the rentals will get this team anything other than salary relief. Unless they are moving Freddy or Contreras don't expect much in return.

[LouisEly]

7 hours ago, umphrey said:

I think we are on track for a light sell like re tool for next year with Hoskins and a pitcher or 2. 

The Brewers generally don't let assets expire.  They'll likely sell the players who for sure are going to be a free agent (Civale, Cortes if he gets healthy in time).  If Hoskins keeps up an .850 OPS pace he will for sure decline his 2026 option and thus the Brewers will likely sell on him.  Quintana probably given his age risk, although he would likely accept his 2026 option because one year and $15M is about as good as he will do as a FA at his age.

They have the SP depth to sell off Civale, Cortes, and Quintana (Peralta, Patrick, Henderson, Priester, Woodruff, Myers, Rodriguez, maybe Mis depending on his innings limit for this year) even if they are in contention for a playoff spot.  If in contention, they could flip Civale or Cortes for a 1B if they trade Hoskins.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I don't think Milwaukee will offer Hoskins a qualifying offer, so he is probably gone. If he brings something decent make the deal.  Cortes and Civale won't bring much of anything.

1) Hoskins isn't a free agent.  He has a mutual option for 2026.  Hoskins is 8th in MLB among primary 1B in wRC+; he will bring something "decent".

B) Starting pitching always brings something at the deadline.  The question with Cortes is if he will be ready in time to show teams that he's healthy.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

1) Hoskins isn't a free agent.  He has a mutual option for 2026.  Hoskins is 8th in MLB among primary 1B in wRC+; he will bring something "decent".

Mutual options are hardly ever picked up in MLB.  It is rare for the team and the player to exercise a mutual option in MLB.  I am not saying it doesn't happen just that it doesn't happen all that often.  Hoskins doesn't have much in terms of value but he won't just be a salary relief throw away.  You are probably only getting one player in a teams 15-25 ranked prospect and then a lottery ticket.  Probably someone like Ernesto Martinez is the closest I could find in the Brewers org which is rather deep prospect wise on who I think would be coming back in a Hoskins trade.  I think Hoskins has a similar value to what Bell had in 2022.  If he wasn't traded with Soto that year. 

[nate82]

I think Peralta gets traded in the off season as I just don't see the Brewers giving up Peralta during the season even if they are 20+ games out of a playoff spot.  I also don't believe there will be a team out there that will pay the price the Brewers want for 1.5 years of Peralta.  I think the Rangers make the most sense with a Josh Smith + prospects in the off season for Peralta.  The Rangers could slot Peralta into the #2 or #3 slot in their rotation.

Something like Smith, Drake and OF Anthony Gutierrez makes some sense here for both teams.  Smith will only have two years remaining and he is someone that is just average and is probably better suited as a utility player.  That is about $25mm in value from the Rangers which I think is about what you can expect for 1-year of Peralta at $8mm.  Peralta even being only a #2 or #3 type pitcher is vastly underpaid by about $12mm a year. 

Not the greatest of trades for Peralta as I don't think you will get a top 25 prospect for him.  At best if you want to get the best prospect deal you are probably looking at something a bit less and someone around the 40-60 range.  If you wanted to go that route then someone like Freeland from the Dodgers would probably be the best you can expect to receive back and then the rest of the players involved in the trade being in the 20-30 range from the Dodgers and you are probably only getting one or two back in that range.

I would rather just reset with a trade like the one I put together with the Rangers over getting the best possible prospect for Peralta.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers just kept Peralta and then just took the draft pick instead of trading him. 

[Frisbee Slider]

We usually tinker around the edges as buyers and I suspect we tinker around the edges as sellers, too. 

Peralta is exactly the cost controlled pitcher we want in 2026. He is also somewhat a face of the franchise at this point. 

Attanasio doesn’t like to ‘go for it’ but I get the impression he does not like the perception of mailing things in or rebuilding either.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We usually tinker around the edges as buyers and I suspect we tinker around the edges as sellers, too. 

Peralta is exactly the cost controlled pitcher we want in 2026. He is also somewhat a face of the franchise at this point. 

Attanasio doesn’t like to ‘go for it’ but I get the impression he does not like the perception of mailing things in or rebuilding either.

Win now, Joey Ortiz is terrible. I posted on a different thread about maybe picking up Orlando Arcia who was just DFA'd.  Orlando Arcia is not injured either that I know of.  The Atlanta Braves designated him for assignment on May 23, 2025, to make room for the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. from the injured list. 

If Javier Baez and Paul Goldschmidt both could snap out of it with a trade it sure would be worth a try before 70% of the Brewer fans punt on the 2025 season in May.  I still think we are about a 5 game win streak away from being right back in playoff contention. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We usually tinker around the edges as buyers and I suspect we tinker around the edges as sellers, too. 

Peralta is exactly the cost controlled pitcher we want in 2026. He is also somewhat a face of the franchise at this point. 

Attanasio doesn’t like to ‘go for it’ but I get the impression he does not like the perception of mailing things in or rebuilding either.

Its hard to believe Freddy will have a higher value than now.  This is his best year of his career and there is 1.5 years left on his extremely team friendly contract.  There is a good chance he regresses slightly or there is always the risk of injury.  If we are going to trade him this offseason anyways, why not trade him in-season when his value is greater.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If I'm the Brewers I'm not making a decision either way until July 20th or later... unless things go REALLY well or REALLY badly between now and then (unlikely).

The Brewers are one of those on-the-cusp teams that won't make a decision until the final days before the deadline. In most years, I might be a buyer but given the absolute menace that is the NL West this season, it might be prudent to sit out 2025 and do a light sell.

[JosephC]

I don't see the Brewers offering any player a qualifying offer.  I'm not an arbitration specialist, but it looks like the Brewers would already be in the 80 millions when looking at salaries plus buyouts, and last year the qualifying offer was 21.05 million.  If they offered Hoskins or Woodruff that, there is a reasonable enough chance they would accept, and based on the recent spending habits of Attanasio, the Brewers might not be left with any money for free agents.

Just looking at the math of what to expect as a return for players in their last contract year.  Anyone trading for Hoskins would probably be looking to get 1 WAR out of him over the final two months of a season.  Over the last 2 1/3 seasons (throwing out the year missed due to injury) he's been roughly a 2 bWAR/fWAR player, if you just ignore last year, he's roughly a 3 WAR player, so expecting 1 WAR over 1/3 a season is completely reasonable.  1 WAR = 8 million in value.  His contract for this year is 18 million, 1/3 of the season is 6 million (Milwaukee is stuck with the mutual option buyout).  8 million - 6 million = 2 million of surplus value.  I doubt if that even gives them a prospect in the top 20 of some team's prospect list.

Quintana's fWAR makes him look like a really mediocre pitcher, his bWAR makes him look like a #2 starter.  If you take the average, he's been a 1.7 bWAR/fWAR player over the last 2 1/3 seasons, so the "unbiased" expectation over the last 2 months of the season would be 0.6 WAR.  0.6 * 8 million = 4.8 million in value.  1/3 of his salary would only be 0.67 million, so there is 4.13 million in surplus value there.  If the Brewers push his mutual option buyout on the other team, that drops the surplus value to 2.13 million which is about the same as Hoskins.  More than likely the Brewers eat that buyout and Quintana could return a prospect somewhere in the range of #16-#25 from a teams prospect list...or they could maybe opt for a couple fringe prospects instead (say a lottery ticket and an organizational filler player).

I'd actually put Civale as having negative value right now.  Luckily his best year, 2023, still figures into the mix.  But pro-rating this year out and then taking the average of the last 3 years, he's roughly a 0.9 WAR/year player.  So that's 0.3 WAR over 2 months = 2.4 million in value.  Salary is 8 million so 1/3 of that number is 2.67 million, resulting of a surplus value of -0.27 million.  I don't even see them getting a lottery ticket for him.  If a trade would happen, the opposing team would have to be desperate and the return to Milwaukee would probably be the definition of organizational filler (think a 27 year old that is pitching in high A that has about a 0.01% chance of pitching in the majors).

The only two players the Brewers may be interesting in dealing that would actually bring back a notable return are Peralta and Contreras.  Other than that, if I'm sitting in the opposing GM chair, I don't see a whole lot to get excited about.  

[Frisbee Slider]

52 minutes ago, JosephC said:

If they offered Hoskins or Woodruff that, there is a reasonable enough chance they would accept,

Brewers absolutely sign an .862 OPS bat to a one year deal, if that’s what Hoskins accepts. Is Ernesto that much better than that in 2026?

Same for Woodruff, if he pitches at a high level.

Brewers have often been open to spending on short term contracts.

[nate82]

5 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We usually tinker around the edges as buyers and I suspect we tinker around the edges as sellers, too. 

Peralta is exactly the cost controlled pitcher we want in 2026. He is also somewhat a face of the franchise at this point. 

Attanasio doesn’t like to ‘go for it’ but I get the impression he does not like the perception of mailing things in or rebuilding either.

Other than Soto there really hasn't been anyone on the market who would be worth spending the prospect capital on.  Ohtani was somewhat on the market from the Angels but they decided not to trade him and go for it that year which was dumb of them but the Angels are not the best ran organization either.

So playing on the edges was the correct move as there just wasn't anyone worth giving up prospect capital for.

I completely disagree with Attanasio doesn't like to 'go for it' as they have gone for it in 2018 and then signed Grandal in 2019.  There have been times when they will go for it but as I stated previously there really hasn't been a strong trade market to go for it since 2018. 

 

[folly412]

Trading to bolster the roster might be enough to try to sneak into the playoffs again, but probably not.  Too many gaps.  And it certainly would not be enough to seriously contend for a pennant.  Keep feeding an already excellent system.