Dodgers (Snell) vs. Brewers (Ashby): NLCS Game One Thread - 10/13/2025 @ 7:08PM

[HarveysWBs]

1 minute ago, markedman5 said:

 

I love this, of course, but with hamstrings this is still worrisome. Being "close to 100 percent" just means you are still equally close to "I cannot run, like, at all." Hamstrings are either 100% or a Ford Pinto. There is no in between.

[long ball]

For as good as Ashby was during the regular season, possibly our best reliever, he makes me nervous. This probably isn’t fair, but he didn’t perform well last year in the playoffs and his only good outing during the nlds was with a sizable lead. I really hope he turns it around tonight.

[ecjimg]

Starting a guy with a postseason WHIP over 2.00. Yikes 

[RobertCrawley]

1 hour ago, homer said:

Ashby is starting 

 

 

 

I worry about this. Ashby has looked tired and less effective his last two outings. But I've learned to trust Murph and the Brewers Brain Trust. Let's go!!!!!

[liveforoctober]

1 minute ago, ecjimg said:

Starting a guy with a postseason WHIP over 2.00. Yikes 

*sample size alert*

[Brian]

3 hours ago, cragi said:

i just cant see Dodgers being that much better having been swept 6-0. Which is crazy itself and should give the Brewers some swagger relative to previous years. Some of our pitchers made them look silly. Dodgers have to prove they are worth the money and anything less than the WS win is a fail given the disparity. Brewers played the good teams well and had an incredible run differential after the Yankees Series. Brewers are sneaky talented. No reason to believe they shouldnt win this, but they are so far above expectations that it shouldnt be as much pressure.

At least Blake Snell is on the road and Brewers are at home. 

Blake Snell Recent Games

See All

• Pitching
• Batting

 

Date	OPP	Result	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
Mon 10/6	@PHI	W 4-3	1	0	0	6.0	1	0	0	0	4	9
Tue 9/30	vsCIN	W 10-5	1	0	0	7.0	4	2	2	0	1	9
Wed 9/24	@ARI	W 5-4 F/11	1	0	0	6.0	5	1	1	0	1	5
Wed 9/17	vsPHI	W 5-0	1	0	0	7.0	2	0	0	0	2	12
Wed 9/10	vsCOL	W 9-0	1	0	0	6.0	2	0	0	0	2	11

[tmwiese55]

I don't think its tired for him.  He's always felt like a nerves/pressure/mental type guy over the years when he loses his command.  Obviously playoffs ramp all that up and we see the results.  That said, at some point he'll get comfortable and over it and get back to his normal self.  hopefully that's tonight.

Another thing I'd add on him is that they can't forget the guy throws 100. If the breaking stuff is way off like it gets when he's struggling, just remember you throw 100 and gas it in there over the plate. Don't have to rely on the breaking stuff

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think part of Ashby starting is he is a lefty that could give them a couple innings, which prevents the Dodgers from trying to open the game with more of their righthanded hitters at the top of the order if, for example, Koenig was opening tonight's game.

If Ashby is "on" he's got the best pure stuff on the roster when it comes to velo+pitch mix+movement.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

That seems plausible.  There was an obvious "Mears moment" in the last game where Ashby left 2 guys on base with 1 out and they brought in Patrick instead.  Might've tipped the hat that he isn't quite right for the moment.

Also would add that I’m sure we had guys watching our pitchers much more closely than we were in the NLDS. Perhaps Mears had a few “yeah you got lucky, you missed your location badly but he didn’t put a good swing on it.”

Or Gasser had a few “that was a really good pitch, that was just really great hitting.”

Not saying either or both are or aren’t true, but I’m sure we have professionals in our organization watching those exact types of things. It’s just so hard to trust raw numbers in such a small sample size.

[adambr2]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think part of Ashby starting is he is a lefty that could give them a couple innings, which prevents the Dodgers from trying to open the game with more of their righthanded hitters at the top of the order if, for example, Koenig was opening tonight's game.

If Ashby is "on" he's got the best pure stuff on the roster when it comes to velo+pitch mix+movement.

I think Ashby is going to yield to Priester as soon as he gets through Freeman to keep him available for Tuesday. We shall see.

[MoreTrife]

Redemption Road for Ashby. 

[kestrel79]

Ashby has sick stuff, so much movement. He threw a curve Monday in game 2 that made the batter, umpire, and catcher even flinch and buckle...so much so it was called a ball.

But sometimes it's almost too much movement and he walks patient hitters. Just hope he's on and there's a short leash. Yep I bet he just faces their lefties at the top of the order.

[Baldkin]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

One of the keys to our offense will be taking walks and forcing the SPs out early in the game.  If LA can't get 5-6 IP from their starters, we gain a huge advantage on their BP. 

The difference (IMO) between Chicago and LA will be the temperatures.  I don't think our team (or at least several key members) don't play well in colder temps.  I say that mainly based on our early season performance. For example, Chourio has two MLB years and both springs have been pretty poor for him.  

I had to go peek at this....

 

Churio career sub-60 degrees (per fangraphs): .194/.239/.345/.585

 

[Brian]

56 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think part of Ashby starting is he is a lefty that could give them a couple innings, which prevents the Dodgers from trying to open the game with more of their righthanded hitters at the top of the order if, for example, Koenig was opening tonight's game.

If Ashby is "on" he's got the best pure stuff on the roster when it comes to velo+pitch mix+movement.

My only issue with Ashby is his control, I get the nervous bubbly gut every time he walks someone because I know walk #2 isn't far behind.  His stuff is off the charts great but hasn't harnessed pitch command on a regular basis. 

[ecjimg]

45 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

*sample size alert*

I’m not forming an opinion on whether he’s a good pitcher or had a good season.  I’m looking at a recent trend.   You can live with a slumping hitter and hope he breaks out of it like Turang did….. but if Ashby is off again it’s a quick deficit.  We all know he’s been used a lot.  Maybe it’s been too much.

[liveforoctober]

4 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

I’m not forming an opinion on whether he’s a good pitcher or had a good season.  I’m looking at a recent trend.   You can live with a slumping hitter and hope he breaks out of it like Turang did….. but if Ashby is off again it’s a quick deficit.  We all know he’s been used a lot.  Maybe it’s been too much.

"yikes" indicates an opinion on the subject!

Ashby threw 16 innings in Sept over 12 appearances and gave up 3 total runs. Walked 6. Struck out 19. Lowered his ERA on the season from 2.31 to 2.16 in the process.

Objectively he pitched well to very well to finish the season - so the "recent trend" you are referring to must only be his 4 1/3 innings pitched against the Cubs, which admittedly, wasn't his greatest 4 1/3 innings on the year. But I return to "sample size alert"... because it is what it is.

Not mad, just providing context. Go Crew.

[willie key]

This has been my philosophy on baseball throughout time.    Pitch guys who get outs and hit guys who get hits

 

just do that an it usually works out.   If Murphy isn’t doing that then he’s behind the 8 ball before the game starts

 

[RWeeksFan23]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

 

that is great news!

[markedman5]

Moving Sal to center to try for a little more offense against Snell

 

[adambr2]

Dude, I love this lineup. Our 9 best hitters? Who thought?

Well okay, our 8 best and Joey, but never gonna get Murph to concede on him, I guess. At least it’s only 1 hole in the lineup.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

I'm not worried about Patrick and Mis but I'm a little worried about Patrick and Mis. Both guys started all year and were in the rhythm of 4 days between games. Patrick pitched in 4 out of the 5 games against Chi!

I'm sure it is nothing and they are both bulldogs and can throw everyday. I'm just saying ... I will feel a lot better winning tonight if we can save both of their arms. Mis especially as we are way over what his inning total was supposed to be this year.

With that said, do what needs to be done to win. They were arguably two of our 5 most important players in the last series and we are going to need them both again.

I'm guessing Miz is slated for one of the LA games, meaning he'll either start or (more likely) be used in a similar fashion to Saturdays' game.

[long ball]

I was wondering if the brewers would go with Sal in CF when we faced taillon, but to get bauers bay in the line up rather than Collins. 
 

I’m guessing this is a hint that Priester is the bulk guy tonight. Can afford to have worse OF defense with him on the mound. 

[torts]

Go collins!!!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Wow. That lineup is quite notable? I hadn't thought we'd move Sal to center and Jackson to right. Time for us to see if Isaac Collins is ready. I am PUMPED!

Ashby, oof. I don't know. Would've gone with Koenig, though maybe they want him for possible leverage lefties. Let's hope the day off did Aaron good. At this point, these are all tough calls.

I will continue to beat the drum for our lefties needing to join the party offensively. Saw some glimpses of that Saturday. May it bloom.

2.5 hrs from first pitch, and I genuinely feel great. Pressure is off. Season validated. Underdogs. It's time to have ***** FUN in October. Win or lose, I'm going to enjoy this ride.

My main hope tonight is that we get to see Quinn Priester pitch like the Quinn Priester we saw all summer. Even in a losing effort, that dude deserves a bounce back. And I think he's the best bulk option tonight.

Go Brewers!!!

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, long ball said:

For as good as Ashby was during the regular season, possibly our best reliever, he makes me nervous. This probably isn’t fair, but he didn’t perform well last year in the playoffs and his only good outing during the nlds was with a sizable lead. I really hope he turns it around tonight.

Making people nervous sort of comes with the package re Ashby. Still, I have to give him credit for his performance in game five. The leadoff single by Busch wasn't hit hard; seeing eye ground ball. The HBP to Hoerner stunk, but then he comes back from down 3-1 to K Turner. A walk there might've really turned things, that was a huge out.

Starting out 0-1 is obviously an edge for any pitcher. But for him I think it can be an especially big advantage, especially vs the LHHs.