2026 Misc MLB News Thread

[Just Some Guy]

I'm so psyched for the Brewers right now that I wish this wasn't an off day!  

 

[formerlybis]

The AL picture has cleared up a little bit. The White Sox and Cleveland are likely the #2 and #6 seeds - Cleveland has a one-game lead in the Central, but the tiebreaker would go to CHW.

The #3 seed is going to be Texas or Houston. Similar to the other division, Texas has a one-game lead, but the Astros have the tiebreaker. The loser between those two will likely be out of the playoffs. 

 

[Just Some Guy]

On 9/20/2026 at 7:25 PM, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yeah, I could see the argument that the Cubs (because of great offense, bad bullpen), are set up to have a run differential that outstrips their actual record and maybe makes them look scarier than they are.

I just think the spread is so big (they are like +100 on both the Pads and Phils) that they'd have to be a serious historical outlier, or else what is run differential useful for at all? I'm actually not even sure what the conventional wisdom is re: run differential, but I tend to be on the "way more signal than noise" side of things.

But it's also true that my preferred avoidance of the Cubs is totally skewed by an irrational fear of losing to them, so [shrugs]. To each their own! 

Let's just beat everyone!!

I like that strategy!  Yeah, on the run differential thing, I think that stat can be a little misleading.  As an example, the Rays are +83 and 35 games over .500.  The Tigers are +75 but 9 games under .500.  Looking at only their run differential you'd think the teams should be close, but the Rays actually lead the Tigers by 22 games.

[LouisEly]

Don't know how I fell down this rabbit hole, but Jack Brannigan of the Pirates has played at every domestic level of the Pirates' org this season from rookie ball to the majors:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=branni000jac

[CheezWizHed]

15 hours ago, Just Some Guy said:

I like that strategy!  Yeah, on the run differential thing, I think that stat can be a little misleading.  As an example, the Rays are +83 and 35 games over .500.  The Tigers are +75 but 9 games under .500.  Looking at only their run differential you'd think the teams should be close, but the Rays actually lead the Tigers by 22 games.

Statistics only mislead if you lose the context in what they are saying.

If you use run differential as a record predictor, you will be disappointed.  If you use it to look at outliers (like DET, CHC, TB, CIN or LAA), you then can go look deeper into those situations and figure out why they are outliers.  

NFL Example: The Vikings won the NFC North in 2022 with a record of 13-4 while having a -3 score differential. The Run differential was a big clue that their record was inflated from the talent of the team.  And in proof of that they were beaten handily in the playoffs.  

MLB has a larger sample size, so that probably isn't quite as easy to seperate, but I'd look at their run differential against winning teams vs losing teams.  Did they score a LOT against bad teams and barely squeak by against good teams (i.e. inflating the run differential)? Did they have a good/bad BP and win/lose a high percentage of close games? 

Stats are always indicators to dig deeper. 

[markedman5]

 

[formerlybis]

26 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

 

Huh. I had seen a little chatter that he wasn't under consideration for the perma-gig and I don't think they've performed anything more than middling during his interim stint. They did sell at the deadline, though, so maybe middling is better than expected

[nate82]

The AL West division winner could be a sub .500 team.  

[Frisbee Slider]

“I want people to understand one thing,” Vlad Guerrero Jr said in Spanish. “The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished.“

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-addresses-disappointing-season

 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Just now, Frisbee Slider said:

“I want people to understand one thing,” Vlad Guerrero Jr said in Spanish. “The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished.“

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-addresses-disappointing-season

 

 

The most true sentence about why money spent on free agents is often wasted. This is year 1 of a 14 year contract.

1.3 bWAR and $40 M salary this season.

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

The most true sentence about why money spent on free agents is often wasted. This is year 1 of a 14 year contract.

1.3 bWAR and $40 M salary this season.

His contract is going to go down as one of the worst in MLB history

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Frisbee Slider said:

“I want people to understand one thing,” Vlad Guerrero Jr said in Spanish. “The money they gave me wasn’t for what I’m going to do. It was for what I already did. They didn’t pay me because I’m going to hit 40 every year. They paid me for what I already accomplished.“

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-addresses-disappointing-season

 

 

See the thing is, Vladdy, you already got paid for those years. A contract isn't a lifetime achievement award.
He's obviously not wrong in the sense that that's why most large free agent contracts are just insanely stupid, but that's not literally true.

[Outlander]

Vlad isn't really wrong but also shows why the MLB system is potentially broken and perhaps looking at a lockout. 

The Brewers still have Yelich for a couple more years but do seem to realize that isn't the way to go anymore. Don't sign these guys long term(Burnes/Adames) on the back end instead do it on the front end and keep the players during their prime(Chourio/Pratt/Lara). Still can bust but the total dollars at risk isn't as much and there are usually outs in the later years.

The large market teams are still throwing money away with these long term deals, not sure if they will ever have the discipline and self control to stop agreeing to these contracts. The Dodgers and Padres have numerous contracts where the player is paid off of previous performance.

I don't know if I would classify the Blue Jays as small market but there are teams that still do pay their franchise player above their performance and with all of the data out there the teams must know they are paying for past performance. The small market Guardians for example will be overpaying Jose Ramirez for the next six years because of his past performance but many would consider this a hometown discount even though he is being paid for past performance.

Even the Brewers will feel the pressure to sign players like Contreras and Turang to bad deals if they win it all 

 

 

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, Outlander said:

Vlad isn't really wrong but also shows why the MLB system is potentially broken and perhaps looking at a lockout. 

The Brewers still have Yelich for a couple more years but do seem to realize that isn't the way to go anymore. Don't sign these guys long term(Burnes/Adames) on the back end instead do it on the front end and keep the players during their prime(Chourio/Pratt/Lara). Still can bust but the total dollars at risk isn't as much and there are usually outs in the later years.

The large market teams are still throwing money away with these long term deals, not sure if they will ever have the discipline and self control to stop agreeing to these contracts. The Dodgers and Padres have numerous contracts where the player is paid off of previous performance.

I don't know if I would classify the Blue Jays as small market but there are teams that still do pay their franchise player above their performance and with all of the data out there the teams must know they are paying for past performance. The small market Guardians for example will be overpaying Jose Ramirez for the next six years because of his past performance but many would consider this a hometown discount even though he is being paid for past performance.

Even the Brewers will feel the pressure to sign players like Contreras and Turang to bad deals if they win it all 

 

 

Vlad is wrong because he is 27, he sounds like an absolute idiot talking like this is his 37 year old season. Certainly the Blue Jay aren’t paying him to hit 40 homers till the last year of the contract…but in his literal prime? I think they did.

Also, the Brewers have always know to not sign guys to these kind of contracts. Even the ones they could afford, they usually avoided. Most of the extensions they gave only covered into their early 30s. Yelich and Braun only got extensions because Attanasio envisioned a career (or nearly career in Yelich’s case) Brewer going into the HOF in the 21st century. Both of those guys really looked primed for just that when the extensions were done.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We are going to get a losing team division champ.

[Frisbee Slider]

8 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

We are going to get a losing team division champ.

Astros could sweep the A’s this weekend but wow, you probably are right.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

12 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Astros could sweep the A’s this weekend but wow, you probably are right.

81-81 would set a new record but I am really hoping to see the 80-82.

[homer]

re Vlad Guerrero Jr

right elbow injury in May, back tightness in June, a hamstring injury in late July into early August, and a concussion in mid-August.

Will he SLG 500 next year? Dunno. But he was dinged up most of the year. 

 

[patrickgpe]

Don't want to start a new thread, so i'll put this here. This is such a bad look for Counsell. They just lost 2 games at home to the Marlins, there are tons of people in the East embracing for a horrible storm and he is worried that he is at a disadvantage because there is a doubleheader tomorrow. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/50016225/counsell-says-cubs-disadvantage-schedule-change

[Just Some Guy]

Interesting wrinkle in NL wildcard:  If SD loses to the Dodgers tonight, then Arizona can steal the last WC from them with a sweep in their head-to-head series this weekend.

[StearnsFTW]

San Diego is by far the scariest opponent in the playoffs 

[Playing Catch]

On 9/24/2026 at 6:21 AM, MrTPlush said:

Vlad is wrong because he is 27, he sounds like an absolute idiot talking like this is his 37 year old season. Certainly the Blue Jay aren’t paying him to hit 40 homers till the last year of the contract…but in his literal prime? I think they did.

Also, the Brewers have always know to not sign guys to these kind of contracts. Even the ones they could afford, they usually avoided. Most of the extensions they gave only covered into their early 30s. Yelich and Braun only got extensions because Attanasio envisioned a career (or nearly career in Yelich’s case) Brewer going into the HOF in the 21st century. Both of those guys really looked primed for just that when the extensions were done.

I think Vlad is simply parrotting everything the team has been saying to him to try and take the pressure off. I heard someone recall recently that Matt Holliday (I think it was him), said he was miserable after his first big deal because he believed he needed to live up to it. There is zero chance he truly believes that he was given THAT deal for what already took place. He's just been talking to himself in the mirror too much.

I'll bet he does some soul searching this offseason and comes back much stronger next season. You don't grow up with a HOF father in these clubhouses and not understand the value of performing for your teammates and giving your best. I think he has succumbed to the same affliction as many stars this season and has had his power sapped by ABS+Tunnelling, and has struggled to adjust. Say what one will about the state of the American League, but that's a really tough division with some serious pitching from Tampa, Boston, and New York.

[tmwiese55]

20 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

Don't want to start a new thread, so i'll put this here. This is such a bad look for Counsell. They just lost 2 games at home to the Marlins, there are tons of people in the East embracing for a horrible storm and he is worried that he is at a disadvantage because there is a doubleheader tomorrow. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/50016225/counsell-says-cubs-disadvantage-schedule-change

the quotes didn't come off overly whiny to me or anything, just kind of stating the reality that they have to wing the pitching.   But yea he's looking to complain instead of seeing the pig pic.  His team is in the playoffs, assuming the plan works that this lets them get these in and his team gets Sunday off.  His team now just got a big big advantage in much more important games in the next round. 

Or, in the middle ground scenario that starting these games Friday but some stuff happens with delays/cancels that eventually leads to the 3rd game done Sunday instead of Monday, then it helped them out immensely.  Or by having the DH Fri instead of possibly Sunday helps them too

[Patrick425]

20 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

Don't want to start a new thread, so i'll put this here. This is such a bad look for Counsell. They just lost 2 games at home to the Marlins, there are tons of people in the East embracing for a horrible storm and he is worried that he is at a disadvantage because there is a doubleheader tomorrow. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/50016225/counsell-says-cubs-disadvantage-schedule-change

Hey Craig, maybe if your team played up to it's payroll expectation you would not have to worry about any of this.  Also, so far no plan in Philly for those games. No double header today. Based on the forecast I don't see games being able to be played on Saturday or Sunday in Philly.  Pittsburgh is on the road and there is no rain forecasted there. Why not move the games there (at least Saturday and Sunday's games)?

[kestrel79]

10 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

San Diego is by far the scariest opponent in the playoffs 

It's looking like they are the "hot team" of this year's playoffs. Peaking at just the right time. Usually those are the kinda teams that go far and make a run.