What would it cost now to extend Miz?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I remember the conversation last season that both sides need to want an extension to make it happen…

but just curious.  What would it take now for the Brewers to offer and maybe buy out 2 FA years…

assuming FA eligibility in 2032 when Miz is 29

Would 7/150 signing him through 2033 get it done?

[nate82]

The two FA years would have to be about $50mm in total so I think you need to up the offer to around $175mm.  

[Redd Vencher]

Those are both ludicrous extension numbers. The largest pre arb SP extension is still Spencer Strider's 6 year $75 M.

[igor67]

While I would love to enjoy a 15 year HOF career from Miz, can a guy throw that hard for that long and not have an injury? 

[Soupy]

I just think the Brewers are reluctant to extend him long term. He looks like an ace but the Brewers haven’t given many pitchers that kind of deal. Draft and develope then trade seems to be the preferred method. Sadly I might add. 

[igor67]

Ashby and Peralta were very solid signs because the salaries were low enough that the team risk was relatively low. I just don't think there was ever a point in Miz's development where he would have been willing to sign for a low enough number to justify the risk for us (unless maybe he had hired Keith Law as his agent). Which is OK he is clearly a special talent.

[cragi]

yeah the brewers did seem interested in signing him before he got too big but there didnt seem to be movement in Miz's camp and Miz seems to be betting on himself to stay healthy and be an ace.

[BallFour]

Considering both Strider and Greene both had histories of TJ surgery and were probably more open to an extension and Miz is still a ways a way from hitting a year of service time like those guys my guess would be a guaranteed $95-$105 Million if both club options are activated then $135-$145 Million.

 

[TURBO]

Like Turang, I'm afraid that ship has sailed...

Concentrate on locking up Made.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, igor67 said:

While I would love to enjoy a 15 year HOF career from Miz, can a guy throw that hard for that long and not have an injury? 

No. Of course not. But lets say the first decade of his career is deGrom-esque? I think we'd all take that. 

I said last year I'd try and do 8/100 and if we waited until he started dominating, it'd be too late. 
Others said no more than Ashby or Peralta(I think adjusted for salary inflation) because he has heavy reliever risk. 

The Brewers SHOULD be extending Made and Misiorowski now and then... you can see how it goes and maybe go with Pena or another young player or pitcher. Look at guys like Harrison, Sproat and try and give them early 8 year deals for...36-40M+ 2TOs if they bite. But I think you'd be looking at 300M total for Made and Misiorowski. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, Soupy said:

I just think the Brewers are reluctant to extend him long term. He looks like an ace but the Brewers haven’t given many pitchers that kind of deal. Draft and develope then trade seems to be the preferred method. Sadly I might add. 

I don't think that's actually their preferred method. I think signing him and locking him up for 8 years with lets say 1TO after this year would increase his trade value significantly. 

They wanted to sign him last year. 

If they can't get him signed... then they won't have much choice, but I think they'd prefer to extend them rather than deal him on a pre-determined timeline. 

[Thurston Fluff]

34 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

No. Of course not. But lets say the first decade of his career is deGrom-esque? I think we'd all take that. 

 

The risk is his first decade could look more like Noah Syndergaard's than De Grom. I don't mind locking up young players to team friendly contracts but I'd prefer they focus on position players. It worked out well for Peralta but it was a wash with Ashby (Nothing against Ashby. He's a great asset but he's not cheap for a reliever and he missed a lot of time.) We're also pretty good at developing pitchers. Why waste limited resources on an area we can replenish for penny on the dollar? There's a lot of risk for pitchers in general. That risk goes up with guys who throw that hard. If he stay healthy I'll be happy watching him pitch for the next five years and get something for him before he hits free agency. Let another team pay hundreds of millions for him to have elbow surgery at 30.

[BrewerFan]

10 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

The risk is his first decade could look more like Noah Syndergaard's than De Grom. I don't mind locking up young players to team friendly contracts but I'd prefer they focus on position players. It worked out well for Peralta but it was a wash with Ashby (Nothing against Ashby. He's a great asset but he's not cheap for a reliever and he missed a lot of time.) We're also pretty good at developing pitchers. Why waste limited resources on an area we can replenish for penny on the dollar? There's a lot of risk for pitchers in general. That risk goes up with guys who throw that hard. If he stay healthy I'll be happy watching him pitch for the next five years and get something for him before he hits free agency. Let another team pay hundreds of millions for him to have elbow surgery at 30.

I think it's working out wonderfully with Ashby, I think he has surplus value, but... there's also a rather wide chasm between what Misiorowski IS right now and what Ashby has EVER been. 

And we're doing pretty good developing position players. I don't think that supports an argument of 'we do it so well, why sign him.' 

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. 

 

I also don't get the last part. "Let another team pay hundredS of millionS for him to have elbow surgery at 30. 
Nobody has suggest we pay "hundredS of millionS," and most pitchers eventually have surgery. 

But obviously... not everyone has to agree. I feel like there'd be a lot of celebration IF we signed him, but since we know it's a long shot, we're arguing against it. 

[Jopal78]

25 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's working out wonderfully with Ashby, I think he has surplus value, but... there's also a rather wide chasm between what Misiorowski IS right now and what Ashby has EVER been. 

And we're doing pretty good developing position players. I don't think that supports an argument of 'we do it so well, why sign him.' 

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. 

 

I also don't get the last part. "Let another team pay hundredS of millionS for him to have elbow surgery at 30. 
Nobody has suggest we pay "hundredS of millionS," and most pitchers eventually have surgery. 

But obviously... not everyone has to agree. I feel like there'd be a lot of celebration IF we signed him, but since we know it's a long shot, we're arguing against it. 

If he’s the most dominant pitching talent the Brewers have ever had, why would Misiorowski be interested in an extension in the first place? He got a multi million dollar bonus when drafted (2.3M), so his circumstances are different than Chourio, Peralta, Ashby, etc. 
 

That’s kind of the end of the discussion. 
 

Misiorowski has no incentive to do anything else but build his resume and hit free agency after 2031, then let teams come to him with amounts of money that would shock the conscience. 
 

From the Brewers perspective, they could sign any player they want if they’re willing to pay the going rate, but we all know they’re not going to do that. 
 

It’s the same as what Paul Dolan said about Lindor when he was in Cleveland, “Enjoy him”.

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s kind of the end of the discussion. 

Ok... I guess if you just proclaim it's the "end of the discussion," it's the end of the discussion😃

[Jopal78]

22 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok... I guess if you just proclaim it's the "end of the discussion," it's the end of the discussion😃

Be my guest…. Use up that bandwidth to gush your hopes and dreams. There is a snow ball’s chance in hell Misiorowski signs an extension with the Brewers. Now where is that ignore button…. 

[Thurston Fluff]

27 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's working out wonderfully with Ashby, I think he has surplus value, but... there's also a rather wide chasm between what Misiorowski IS right now and what Ashby has EVER been. 

And we're doing pretty good developing position players. I don't think that supports an argument of 'we do it so well, why sign him.' 

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. 

 

I also don't get the last part. "Let another team pay hundredS of millionS for him to have elbow surgery at 30. 
Nobody has suggest we pay "hundredS of millionS," and most pitchers eventually have surgery. 

But obviously... not everyone has to agree. I feel like there'd be a lot of celebration IF we signed him, but since we know it's a long shot, we're arguing against it. 

Ashby is making $5.5 million this year. That's not cheap for a reliever who isn't a closer. I'm not saying he isn't worth it nor that he isn't valauble to the team. But his overall contract is a wash because of the shoulder surgery. Pitchers are more prone to injuries which increases the risk for long term contracts. Even team friendly ones. I'm not totally against them. I just think they have to be very friendly and would prefer to do them with position players due to the added injury risk.

I didn't say we could get another Miz for pennies on the dollar. I said we can develop starting pitching for pennies on the dollar. That said, is Miz all that much better than Woody or Burnes? Lets wait a while before we declare him the next Nolan Ryan. 

I don't know if we're all that great at developing position players considering our offense is pretty average and a lot of our current key players weren't developed by us. WE certainly have a better reputation of developing pitching.

Finally, I said let someone else pay hundreds of millions for him in his 30's. He's 24 years old now and is in his first year control wise. We have control over him until he's 30. I say trade him at 29 and let someone else pay hundreds of millions to have surgery in his 30's rather than pay him a couple years into his 30's. 

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Be my guest…. Use up that bandwidth to gush your hopes and dreams. There is a snow ball’s chance in hell Misiorowski signs an extension with the Brewers. Now where is that ignore button…. 

You sure I have permission to continue to talk about this... thread dedicated to this exact subject?

That's... mighty kind of you! 

[BrewerFan]

18 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Lets wait a while before we declare him the next Nolan Ryan. 

I didn't. I referred to his talent relative to Brewers history. 

18 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Ashby is making $5.5 million this year. That's not cheap for a reliever who isn't a closer. I'm not saying he isn't worth it nor that he isn't valauble to the team. But his overall contract is a wash because of the shoulder surgery.

And I believe he's got a lot of value right now and that the contract we gave him... while not particularly relevant to Misiorowski... has been worthwhile. 5.5M is... not really expensive for a high leverage reliever either. 

I'd also argue the 3 more years of team control make him MORE valuable rather than less. Be it in a trade or with the team. 

 

18 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Finally, I said let someone else pay hundreds of millions for him in his 30's.

I guess just an odd argument to make because it kinda infers it's a binary choice. Either WE pay him hundreds of millions or someone else does, but.. sure, we can let someone else pay him hundreds of millions...and then I think you added to have surgery at 30. 

 

We COULD do that while also extending him ourselves. Both are options. I'd like to see us sign him and keep him for an extra couple years or at least try to given that's the discussion. 

[Thurston Fluff]

31 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I didn't. I referred to his talent relative to Brewers history. 

 

The Brewers history involve Burnes and Woody. Wouldn't the next level from that be all time great like Nolan Ryan?

 

34 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

And I believe he's got a lot of value right now and that the contract we gave him... while not particularly relevant to Misiorowski... has been worthwhile. 5.5M is... not really expensive for a high leverage reliever either. 

I'd also argue the 3 more years of team control make him MORE valuable rather than less. Be it in a trade or with the team. 

I never said he isn't worthwhile. I said his contract has been a wash so far from what it would have been had he not signed the contract. The contract may end up being better, or worse if he has more health issues, but so far it's been a wash compared to what we would have got had we just went year to year. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

The Brewers history involve Burnes and Woody. Wouldn't the next level from that be all time great like Nolan Ryan?

... I'm not even sure how to respond to this. 
No, I don't think it goes Nolan Ryan, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff when looking at power pitchers.

I'm trying to tell if you're being serious here. You're seriously trying to draw a connection from this statement;

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had.

To arguing that I'm calling him Nolan Ryan? That's a reasonable conclusion to you? 

 

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I never said he isn't worthwhile. I said his contract has been a wash so far from what it would have been had he not signed the contract. The contract may end up being better, or worse if he has more health issues, but so far it's been a wash compared to what we would have got had we just went year to year. 

And I'm arguing the additional team control we have adds value to him. In a trade, to the Brewers... either way. 

 

I still don't think it's particularly relevant as Misiorowski is already exponentially more valuable than Ashby has ever been and the only thing they really have in common is both signed extensions for the Brewers. 

Ashby signing a 5 year 20.5M extension... if you feel good or bad about it, it doesn't inform anything with regard to how we should approach Misiorowski. 

But for arguments sake, what do we think Ashby would get on the FA market? A power lefty with a FB in the upper 90s, elite K rate, elite GB rate. I'm thinking it'd be more than 1 year, 7M with two team options at 9 and 13M. 
 

[thebruce44]

I'd prefer they target guys like Logan Henderson. With Mis, sadly, I hope we get to enjoy 5 injury free years and I think that's the best we can hope for.

[adambr2]

I think we probably offer long-term deals to more of our young talent than we are made aware of. It is wonderful that we were able to sign Chourio and I do think the Pratt deal will end up being worthwhile as well.

It always takes two to tango on these deals. Some players are thrilled to just lock in long-term security early on when they’re still relatively unproven and willing to leave a lot of potential earnings on the table to lock in the security now, and that’s great.

Others are probably content betting on their talent and willing to risk going year to year for their pre-arb and arb seasons. That’s fine too.

It’s a matter of personal preference for the player and that’s a private matter between them, their family, and their agent so again I would speculate that we probably do try these deals a lot but don’t always get a bite.

[OldHeidelberg]

Yes, there is plenty of room between Woodruff/Burnes and Nolan Ryan, I have seen deGrom mentioned twice here today and I think he was a guy we looked at as Misiorowski's ceiling when he was brought up. But as he breaks velocity records with seemingly every start I am sure I am not alone in dreaming of even bigger things from Miz. Maybe he is a freak of nature who actually won't blow his arm out, Randy Johnson is another lanky guy that comes to mind who pitched forever. On the other hand, in our division alone we have another young flamethrowing phenom in Greene and everybody's favorite generational talent in Skenes so I try to temper my HOF expectations 100 innings in.

If there is number that Miz would agree to right now the Brewers might regret not paying but it is hard to see the Brewers going 100+ million on a pitcher who they control for 6 years.    

[wallus]

I'm more interested in trying to lock up Harrison honestly