What would it cost now to extend Miz?

[TURBO]

They only chance we have at extending/locking up Miz is in the hopes he thinks security is more important than waiting around hoping he is still healthy when he has his first crack at a free agent contract.  If he thinks he can pitch the next 6years and not get seriously hurt, then he isn't signing an extension with us, no possible chance.

If he would like a shot at security and generational wealth, and would rather not risk it, then the chance exists.  A slight very low % chance, but a chance none the less.

I'm standing by what I said earlier though, that ship has sailed.

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

21 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. 

I don't have any problem with this statement.  It can be argued of course, but Miz is definitely one of the most talented pitchers the Brewers have ever had.  I'm reluctant for the Brewers to lock up Miz long term just because he is such a risky gamble with inevitable injury risk, but he has Cy young level talent.  If there was a young pitcher you would want to sign long term, it would be that kind of talent. 

[Thurston Fluff]

On 5/9/2026 at 2:52 PM, BrewerFan said:

... I'm not even sure how to respond to this. 
No, I don't think it goes Nolan Ryan, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff when looking at power pitchers.

I'm trying to tell if you're being serious here. You're seriously trying to draw a connection from this statement;

To arguing that I'm calling him Nolan Ryan? That's a reasonable conclusion to you? 

I guess I define dominant overpowering pitcher differently than you do. I define it as someone who can dominate and overpower a hitter in the sense that the hitter has little to no chance of hitting the pitch. If all you mean is he throws a lot harder than any pitcher we've had then yes he does. Though Woody and Burnes weren't exactly soft tossers either. If you go by how hard it is to get a hit off him then there isn't as much daylight between them. Why would how hard they throw be the determining factor for dominance though? 

[tmwiese55]

My guess is the gap between both sides is too much, however you have to have the discussion with the agent.  And as much as we all think 'how can he not get hurt' he and his team have to factor that risk in as well so they will listen.   I also wouldn't want all the later years to be team options or I probably wouldn't do it either, which might be dealbreaker from Miz's side.

One thing you could have on our side is to ask Woody to chirp in his year that it's not the worst thing to lock up 100 mil when you can.  But OTOH, we paid him solidly even while injured so maybe not the best example, like what happened to Jimmy Nelson. Can also point to Burnes who got lucky that he got hurt like 4 starts after getting paid, if that happened before that would've cost him a ton of money.

[kestrel79]

No, you don't extend him. Don't we have Miz and a lot of these other guys people want to extend under team control through like 2030? We keep doing smart Brewer things and keep these guys for 5-6 years, then deal them and reload on prospects near the end and stay competitive. It's worked since 2017 keep doing it.

This guy throws so hard, which is awesome. Man is he fun to watch. But you're telling me between now and his team control ending Miz won't have any kind of arm issues? That's almost impossible.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I guess I define dominant overpowering pitcher differently than you do. I define it as someone who can dominate and overpower a hitter in the sense that the hitter has little to no chance of hitting the pitch. If all you mean is he throws a lot harder than any pitcher we've had then yes he does. Though Woody and Burnes weren't exactly soft tossers either. If you go by how hard it is to get a hit off him then there isn't as much daylight between them. Why would how hard they throw be the determining factor for dominance though? 

I don't really know what you're talking about right now, but I'll reiterate, NOBODY is calling him the next Nolan Ryan. In fact, you're actually the only one making that argument at this point. 

I've said I'd like to sign him.. as I said last year and I said THIS about him;

 

Quote

I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. 

 

How you're telling me that ACTUALLY means he'll be the most reliable power pitcher since the Great Depression, I'm kinda at a loss to be honest. 

BREWERS History does not equal all of MLB History... and in ALL of MLB History, there are FOUR pitchers who've thrown more innings than Nolan Ryan. One of those 4, Pud Galvin, who threw nearly 700 innings in back to back years and about 75% of his teams total innings those years. 
The next two pitched before the Great Depression and then you have a Knuckle Ball Pitcher Phil Niekro. 

 

So... I don't know what the point of this is or how it furthers any discussion about extending Misirorowski, but... I have said THREE times now, I am not and HAVE not compared him to Nolan Ryan. 

You're doing that and then asking why... throwing hard helps a pitcher be dominant(which I again, don't even know how to respond to). 

 

[thebruce44]

8 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I guess I define dominant overpowering pitcher differently than you do. I define it as someone who can dominate and overpower a hitter in the sense that the hitter has little to no chance of hitting the pitch. If all you mean is he throws a lot harder than any pitcher we've had then yes he does. Though Woody and Burnes weren't exactly soft tossers either. If you go by how hard it is to get a hit off him then there isn't as much daylight between them. Why would how hard they throw be the determining factor for dominance though? 

This is an interesting debate, more interesting in my opinion than discussing locking Miz up.

I would put Burnes and Sheets above Miz personally in terms of overpowering pitching prospects. Burnes combination of velocity and spin was off the charts. Sheeter had the best hammer curve I've ever seen. Miz can hit 103 and looks relatively low effort in his delivery. His length and leverage gives him velocity, but also can cause control issues if his mechanics get out of sync.

[rickh150]

I’m in the camp of letting this five 1/2 year ride play out….payng him about nothing for 3 1/2 years.  Then look for trade, if healthy.
He, more than the avg pitcher, is going to have arm issues, you’d think. Lots of wear and tear….bullpen closer arm throwing 75-100 pitches per game for 170-200 IP.

And to extend him, we’d have to give guaranteed money for 7-8 years…and big money at that, to maybe save $ in years 6-8. Too much risk likely with the $ 15-20 mil per year starting now.
 

[MadScientist]

Miz is one of the few pitchers with intimidating stuff.  It's good enough that he can get away with the occasional mistake.  If he was more wild, Randy Johnson would be a good comparison, but Randy didn't really become great until he hit 30.  So far this year, Miz's control has really taken a step up, but we are dealing with the ever popular small sample size.

On other factor with extending Miz is that nobody knows what is going to happen with the new CBA.  That might swing the economics in favor of the Brewers being able to sign him.  Or not.  Hoping that MLB will do something that will work to the Brewers favor often feels like hoping Santa Claus will bring you a winning lottery ticket. 

[Trail]

No.  Its just not good business.  Especially not for a pitcher.  You can point at Ashby, but I think that contract is child's play compared to what it would take to lock up Miz.  I hate it, but a franchise like ours cannot have that kind of money tied up for 2 years in a guy down with Tommy John (or whatever).  Especially if he comes back with reduced velo.  Just enjoy him, his amazing talent, and his enthusiasm.  When the time comes, if he stays healthy,  and we trade him, the Brewers should bring in an amazing haul.  The economics of baseball just don't allow small market teams to take those kinds of risks (not responsibly, anyway).  We'll probably have him through his best years, and that will have to be enough.  

[SeaBass]

On 5/9/2026 at 5:09 AM, igor67 said:

While I would love to enjoy a 15 year HOF career from Miz, can a guy throw that hard for that long and not have an injury? 

I see comments all over the internet about Miz's arm blowing out. My question is, is he any more likely to be injured than any other pitcher simply because he has about 3 to 5 MPH extra on his fastball than other top pitchers? Are people just as obsessed over how soon Paul Skenes is going to blow out his arm? I feel like I really don't hear that about him.

Pitchers are injury risks, I'm not really sure Miz is that much more of an injury risk than any other guy.

[igor67]

The logic is basically that he is currently throwing more pitches faster than anyone else before him in recorded history. So even with good mechanics he has to be putting larger than average strain. And at least from my perspective at this stage injury risks with most pitchers are high enough that I would worry about any long term commitment being a challenge to overcome for the team once you start talking lost years and 20+ million a year. Very different calculus, if you are looking at extension years towards quality arms and you are paying less than 10 million for an injury like Ashby.

[Brian]

30 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

I see comments all over the internet about Miz's arm blowing out. My question is, is he any more likely to be injured than any other pitcher simply because he has about 3 to 5 MPH extra on his fastball than other top pitchers? Are people just as obsessed over how soon Paul Skenes is going to blow out his arm? I feel like I really don't hear that about him.

Pitchers are injury risks, I'm not really sure Miz is that much more of an injury risk than any other guy.

Risky pitches

This infographic depicts the three characteristics of pitches that lead to the highest risk of Tommy John surgery for Major League Baseball pitchers. It shows a pitcher, with his arm at three different angles to represent the different pitches, and the trajectory of those pitches as they move to the plate.

Graphic text: In a new study, researchers in the UAB Department of Orthopaedic Surgery studied pitch characteristics and risk of Tommy John surgery (UCL reconstruction) among thousands of Major League Baseball pitchers from 2017-2024.

• Cutter: For every 1 inch of side movement there is a 36% higher risk of injury
• Sinker: For every 1 mph increased speed there is a 30% higher risk of injury
• Four-seam fastball: For every 100 rpm increase in spin rate there is a 20% higher risk of injury

End of infographic description.

https://www.uab.edu/reporter/research-innovation/which-pitches-are-tearing-up-major-league-arms-this-researcher-surgeon-has-answers-and-advice-for-young-pitchers

 

[SeaBass]

So I had a bit of a back and forth with Google's AI chatbot. Take that for what you will, it's certainly not science.

I asked (after several previous questions):

Quote

I can accept there's a higher risk. I wonder if human emotion by outside observers cause an over exaggeration of the true risk especially in comparison with similar pitchers. Higher risk yes, but is it really leaps and bounds higher. For a lot of pitchers it seems to be a matter of time I can't help but think the same applies to misirowski.

AI response:

Quote

You’ve hit on the "availability bias" that plagues modern baseball analysis. Because Misiorowski looks more violent—tall, lanky, and hitting 103 mph—it triggers a stronger emotional "injury alarm" in observers than a pitcher like Skenes, who looks like a built-in-a-lab workhorse.

When you strip away the optics, the data suggests the gap in risk is likely a gradient, not a chasm:

The "Velocity Tax": Biomechanics research shows that every 1 mph increase over 100 mph increases stress on the UCL exponentially. Misiorowski’s risk isn’t "leaps and bounds" higher because of his height; it’s higher because he lives at 101–103 mph while Skenes lives at 98–100 mph.

The "Matter of Time" Reality: You’re right—UCL injuries in the current era are almost an expected milestone for power pitchers. Whether a pitcher’s risk is 15% or 20% in a given year, the outcome is often the same. Skenes’ sturdier frame might buy him more efficiency, but it doesn't make his elbow immune to the physics of 100 mph.

Narrative vs. Reality: Because Misiorowski had some control issues early in his career, observers associated his "wildness" with "injury risk." Now that his command has improved in 2026, the "injury prone" label is a lingering narrative that hasn't necessarily caught up to his improved physical conditioning.

The truth is likely that Misiorowski is at incrementally higher risk due to the sheer torque required for his 103 mph peak, but the "leaps and bounds" narrative is largely fueled by how "scary" his delivery looks compared to more traditional power pitchers.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers have no business extending a high end pitcher at market rates a few years beyond free agency - maybe if Miz is ok with 1-2 years beyond his current UFA year at $35M per with escalating amounts in what would be his arbitration years, but I doubt his agent would advise for that.

We were sad to see Burnes walk, and he promptly blew out his elbow.  The Tigers are paying Skubal ~$30M this season to rehab after a minor elbow surgery and miss most of his last year with the team.  The Peralta deal was perfect for the Brewers, but i think it wouldn't make sense for Miz at this juncture even if the extension amount was dramatically higher.

Call me a cynic, but I just don't see the point of giving any current MLB talent a longterm extension during this season, knowing there's a darn good chance there may not even be a 2027 season and the financial playing field may be dramatically different whenever the incoming lockout/strike ends.  Offering impact prospects long term extensions makes alot more sense to me with the upcoming labor strife - giving them some financial certainty through this storm that could impact the first few years of their pre-arbitration team control (and in turn push their free agent years back longer than normal) seems like the smarter play longterm for the organization.

Truth is that teams can field quality pitching staffs without having to shell out massive veteran contracts - the Brewers have proven that, and I think the injury risk is too high for any impact arm to pay them huge $$$ to spend large chunks of time on the IL.

[Fear The Chorizo]

59 minutes ago, igor67 said:

The logic is basically that he is currently throwing more pitches faster than anyone else before him in recorded history. So even with good mechanics he has to be putting larger than average strain. And at least from my perspective at this stage injury risks with most pitchers are high enough that I would worry about any long term commitment being a challenge to overcome for the team once you start talking lost years and 20+ million a year. Very different calculus, if you are looking at extension years towards quality arms and you are paying less than 10 million for an injury like Ashby.

Logic doesn't necessarily work with pitchers - some are more injury prone than others...but genetic freaks can defy all common sense and odds.

Randy Johnson, a tall, lanky lefty with a funky, violent delivery and sidearm release, pitched 22 years in the majors and only had a partially torn rotator cuff late in his career - which was caused by a swing while hitting.  His major injuries were back and knee-related.

I just think the risk of paying top end rates for the most dominant pitchers is too great knowing how difficult it is to predict if and when an arm blows out.

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

The logic is basically that he is currently throwing more pitches faster than anyone else before him in recorded history. So even with good mechanics he has to be putting larger than average strain. And at least from my perspective at this stage injury risks with most pitchers are high enough that I would worry about any long term commitment being a challenge to overcome for the team once you start talking lost years and 20+ million a year. Very different calculus, if you are looking at extension years towards quality arms and you are paying less than 10 million for an injury like Ashby.

This is fair. I guess I'm mostly thinking in Brewers terms of letting a pitcher approach free agency and then trading him, not necessarily in the "they need to sign this guy to an extension" frame of mind. Whatever happens will happen.

In general I just get annoyed at flippant comments where commenters (I'm thinking like comments on twitter or on youtube highlights) just say, oh he's going to blow out his arm doing that. Sure, that happens a lot to pitchers. I'm just not so sure that Miz is super duper extra susceptible to injury than other power pitchers. He could get injured in his next start (knock wood) and that wouldn't really change my mind on the thinking process behind it.

In the end, when I watch him pitch I'm not thinking, this guy is going to blow his arm out. I'm thinking, this is really cool I'm glad he's on our team.