Tarik Skubal

[Playing Catch]

6 minutes ago, cragi said:

Craziness. Who are the Brewers bidding agains in a scenario where they give up the #1 prospect plus a few top 50?

I think some "experts" are of the belief that the Dodgers have already put a huge prospect-offer on the table therefore necessitating an even better return from another team if they are to acquire Skubal.

So, in other words, IF the Brewers were to get Skubal, they would need to offer more than De Paula+Sirota++++

At least, I think that's the theory some people are going with.

[bucks2281]

The prospect haul going out would be tough to stomach, but trading for him improves the Brewers WS odds and proactively prevents him from going to their direct and strongest competitor. And the Brewers are not winning 4/7 against that rotation if Skubal is healthy and effective. 

[cragi]

if thats the case and the brewers forced the dodgers to give up great prospects, then i say mission accomplished and move on. though im not that familiar with these prospects

[MrTPlush]

That trade proposal reminds me of when Oakland shipped Addison Russel ++ for a duo of rental starters. (And traded Yoenis Cespedes for rental Jon Lester)

They did so with a marginal lead in the division, but ended up failing to win 90 games despite 66-41 at the end of July, lost the division by double digits, and BARELY edged the Mariners for the last WC spot.

In the end they lost the WC game and their three starters they sold the #1 farm system in baseball for: Jon Lester started and got lit up, Hammel gave up a hit and no outs managed, and Samardzija didn’t even pitch.

I can confidently say I don’t support that deadline concept.

[SeaBass]

Brewers traded for CC Sabathia then Ben Sheets got hurt. Packers traded for Micah Parsons, he got hurt.

I'm not saying you never make trades because things could go wrong but the world keeps spinning and events continue to have cause and effect situations. You can improve your world series odds by making a trade but there are still things that can happen to negate it that are out of your control. You have to think about all the risks, not just the up front cost.

What if they get Skubal but Miz goes down? Or Skubal himself does? These things have to factor in to really get across whether you want to overextend yourself in a trade because you're only seeing the positive results side of the possibilities.

Brewers should make their best offer for Skubal and let the chips fall where they may. And by best offer it should be measured by what they're willing to lose if things go wrong.

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

The Dodgers will outbid anybody for Skubal let’s be real, they do not care. Even though they’re gonna sign him in December anyways. They have 5 guys in the MLB pipeline top 25 and probably would have that same amount again by this time in 2028 after a potential 2027 lockout. So Arnold will not do it, and that’s fine.

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, bucks2281 said:

The prospect haul going out would be tough to stomach, but trading for him improves the Brewers WS odds and proactively prevents him from going to their direct and strongest competitor. And the Brewers are not winning 4/7 against that rotation if Skubal is healthy and effective. 

Yeah you might as well just hand the Dodgers the WS trophy now if they trade for Skubal. I know Detroit has to do what's best for the future of their franchise but I hope for the sake of the league, they trade him to any team accept the Dodgers. That being said, he probably signs with them in the offseason anyway so what the hell.

[RWeeksFan23]

mclanahan left the game for the rays in the fourth inning with a trainer and his velocity had been down a couple mph.

I know they've been one of the rumored teams in on Skubal, maybe this makes them even more desperate now.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah you might as well just hand the Dodgers the WS trophy now if they trade for Skubal. I know Detroit has to do what's best for the future of their franchise but I hope for the sake of the league, they trade him to any team accept the Dodgers. That being said, he probably signs with them in the offseason anyway so what the hell.

 

[tmwiese55]

As much as the media pushes the narrative how MKE really should do this, go for it, this is their chance, etc  the team being overlooked is Tampa.  This might easily be their best window and the ideal year to do it. Huge luck to have the AL be such trash with Tor, Sea, Hous, etc all so underperforming and not being threats.   Yanks are there but who knows what Judge can give them this year, if he's out or a shell of himself they don't really have much of a chance.   This is the opening Tampa has been dreaming for, if anyone has the 'window' its them.  They don't have to deal with LAD, Braves, Cubs, Phils even before the WS

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

That trade proposal reminds me of when Oakland shipped Addison Russel ++ for a duo of rental starters. (And traded Yoenis Cespedes for rental Jon Lester)

They did so with a marginal lead in the division, but ended up failing to win 90 games despite 66-41 at the end of July, lost the division by double digits, and BARELY edged the Mariners for the last WC spot.

In the end they lost the WC game and their three starters they sold the #1 farm system in baseball for: Jon Lester started and got lit up, Hammel gave up a hit and no outs managed, and Samardzija didn’t even pitch.

I can confidently say I don’t support that deadline concept.

That’s also a good counter example too.

Addison Russell was a glove first shortstop who played parts of 5 seasons then was non-tendered (His non-tender occurring over a year after his domestic violence suspension). The other two players sent to Chicago from Oakland were Billy McKinney (Oakland’s #2 prospect) and Dan Straily a 24 year old starter who already had a 10 win season and a career 1.26 WHIP and 2:1 K:BB ratio.  McKinney never appeared in the majors for the Cubs and played for 8 different teams across 8 years.   Straily pitched 7 games for the Cubs and suited up for 4 different team in 5 seasons post trade. 
 

There is risk for a team like the Brewers to trade prospects when they will never be big players in free agency. But obviously the above trade included Oakland’s #1, #2 prospects and a major league starting pitcher, and while Oakland may not have gained much with the acquisitions,  the loss of the 3 players they traded didn’t amount to much either. 
 

You’re misleading on Lester’s impact to try to make a point though. He pitched like an ace for Oakland down the stretch going 6-4 in 11 starts (76 2/3 innings!!) with a 1.07 whip.

To be clear in the 2014 AL Wild Card game, Lester did give up 6 runs, but pitched 7 1/3 innings and left the game with Oakland ahead.  They ended up losing 9-8 in 12 innings.
 

What more could a team ask of a rental ace than to pitch 7 innings per start in the regular season, then pitch into the 8th inning of an elimination game and leave with the team in the lead?

[MilwaukeeBeers]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Miz is a generational talent, at least pitching like one. Of course, how many years will we get of that level? 1, 2, 5? 
 

We have the deepest farm in baseball, you could trade for Skubal and still a top farm system. 
 

The combination of Miz and Skubal would likely make this team arguably the best chance to win a World Series in team history. Especially if a healthy Harrison is also still on the team. It also would increase our odds of getting the #1 seed exponentially too.

Whine about the Dodgers spending money and then whine when they get Skubal when we clearly have the trade capital to do it? I mean, at that point stop pretending like you are trying to win.  If we cry poor hoarding prospects then Attanasio needs to refuse to field another team until MLB evens the playing field if it is really that bad.

And yah, the reality is we could trade for Skubal and it will likely not result in a World Series. Just like the litany of trades we have made before that resulted in no ring. But that’s sports and a change of attempt trying to win may be welcomed. It’s been almost a decade and we haven’t even made it to the WS. We can hoard all the prospects, but in 5 years when Miz is a more normal pitcher (or a crippled mess like DeGrom) and we suddenly do t have the pitching to win…well, what ifs will be made.

This is a lot of assumption. Or you could look at this being just the beginning of our window. With potential superstars in Made and Pena to supplement an already young and great core. You have to trade the right prospects. Some of these media offers are frankly ridiculous. It is not prospect hugging when you realize just how few starts you are gonna get for 6 years of a really good player or two. I am all the way out on Skubal if that's the cost. Trade the right guys with flaws. 

[TURBO]

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Dodgers are the favorite to land Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline.

We’re sure the baseball world would react favorably to this move, especially with owners using competitive imbalance to push for a salary cap. The Dodgers should get Blake Snell back in the next week or two, and Tyler Glasnow is set to begin a rehab assignment next week, but some health concerns are keeping Shohei Ohtani (knee/bicep) off the mound, Eric Lauer was acquired as a short-term fix, and about Roki Sasaki and Emmet Sheehan have had inconsistent seasons, so the Dodgers may not want to trust them in the postseason. The Dodgers have plenty of prospect hitters to deal to make this work, so another team is going to have to simply beat their offer. 

- Eric Samulski

3h ago

Source: ESPN.com

[MilwaukeeBeers]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

If Detroit were to package Skubal and Mize (and Kenley Jansen, why not?)...

At that point, blockbusters involving Made are probably closer to reality.

People we have to factor control in this. Jesus Made won't and shouldn't be traded for anything less than a controllable superstar. 

[paul253]

I almost hope the Dodgers get Skubal if it helps the argument that MLB needs a salary cap. The Brewers can match any prospect offer the Dodgers can throw out but the one thing they can’t match is the risk. If the Dodgers create a void on their team by trading away high level prospects, oh well, they’ll just sign a proven major league to fill the void. Milwaukee can’t do that. Neither can Tampa. Neither can 2/3 of the teams in MLB.  

[MilwaukeeBeers]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think some "experts" are of the belief that the Dodgers have already put a huge prospect-offer on the table therefore necessitating an even better return from another team if they are to acquire Skubal.

So, in other words, IF the Brewers were to get Skubal, they would need to offer more than De Paula+Sirota++++

At least, I think that's the theory some people are going with.

There is not a chance that DePaula is on the table. I swear people think every front office runs like the 2000s. Established, elite prospects have never been harder to obtain (outside of AJ Preller and Dave Dombrowski) and now they're in a package for a rental? Color me dubious. 

[tmwiese55]

If the brewers don't win it all I think I prefer the Dodgers to win.  Can only help leading into the CBA discussions to have them just bought 3 straight titles and like 4/6 or whatever it is.   Second, I really don't have any problem with their actual players/team themselves.  Its just the system.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

24 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s also a good counter example too.

Addison Russell was a glove first shortstop who played parts of 5 seasons then was non-tendered (His non-tender occurring over a year after his domestic violence suspension). The other two players sent to Chicago from Oakland were Billy McKinney (Oakland’s #2 prospect) and Dan Straily a 24 year old starter who already had a 10 win season and a career 1.26 WHIP and 2:1 K:BB ratio.  McKinney never appeared in the majors for the Cubs and played for 8 different teams across 8 years.   Straily pitched 7 games for the Cubs and suited up for 4 different team in 5 seasons post trade. 
 

There is risk for a team like the Brewers to trade prospects when they will never be big players in free agency. But obviously the above trade included Oakland’s #1, #2 prospects and a major league starting pitcher, and while Oakland may not have gained much with the acquisitions,  the loss of the 3 players they traded didn’t amount to much either. 

Addison Russell was a big part of the Cubs winning that WS. He was well on his way to being a perennial all star before all the off the field nonsense. It was a horrendous value for Oakland at the time and with hindsight it looks better because of unpredictable factors (which I do not give credit for). Those prospects and farm system are not even close to the level Milwaukee has in comparison. 

[gregmag]

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Whine about the Dodgers spending money and then whine when they get Skubal when we clearly have the trade capital to do it? I mean, at that point stop pretending like you are trying to win.

“Anyone who disagrees with me is just whining. You’re only trying to win if you make exactly the moves that I decree we should make. I am morally superior to everyone who does not see the situation the way I do.”

This kind of thing is why I would pay good money to just skip the weekend and have it be 6:01 Monday night right now.

[Jopal78]

21 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Addison Russell was a big part of the Cubs winning that WS. He was well on his way to being a perennial all star before all the off the field nonsense. It was a horrendous value for Oakland at the time and with hindsight it looks better because of unpredictable factors (which I do not give credit for). Those prospects and farm system are not even close to the level Milwaukee has in comparison. 

Yes, Russell had a big season when the Cubs won the World Series (they all did), but absolutely incorrect (career average .240, career OBP .312) on the perennial All-Star (Seager, Turner, B. Crawford, etc).

The suspension absolutely hurt his career and a glove for a shortstop with a diminishing bat isn’t all that valuable the commodity to begin with. 
 

But to your larger point, I don’t know how anyone can look at these type of trades besides through hindsight. There is no  player in the minor leagues who is better today, than Skubal, Mason Miller, etc. so it is all guess work as to how much any minor leaguer will contribute vis a vis a major leaguer for 2 months. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yes, Russell had a big season when the Cubs won the World Series (they all did), but absolutely incorrect (career average .240, career OBP .312) on the perennial All-Star (Seager, Turner, B. Crawford, etc).

The suspension absolutely hurt his career and a glove for a shortstop with a diminishing bat isn’t all that valuable the commodity to begin with. 
 

But to your larger point, I don’t know how anyone can look at these type of trades besides through hindsight. There is no  player in the minor leagues who is better today, than Skubal, Mason Miller, etc. so it is all guess work as to how much any minor leaguer will contribute vis a vis a major leaguer for 2 months. 

The name of the game is surplus value. It is especially important when the Brewers don't have a financial appetite to replace years of *possibly substantial lost value with free agents like other teams can. Got to nail who you trade.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, gregmag said:

“Anyone who disagrees with me is just whining. You’re only trying to win if you make exactly the moves that I decree we should make. I am morally superior to everyone who does not see the situation the way I do.”

This kind of thing is why I would pay good money to just skip the weekend and have it be 6:01 Monday night right now.

It’s like the rest of my post just vanished, I can resend it for you if you’d like. What an obnoxious post dude, thanks for the laugh.
 

You don’t even have to pay, just close the tab 🙂

[Jopal78]

33 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

The name of the game is surplus value. It is especially important when the Brewers don't have a financial appetite to replace years of *possibly substantial lost value with free agents like other teams can. Got to nail who you trade.

No doubt, but the concept of winning and losing trades based on surplus value is all guess work.

The Addison Russell, McKinney and Straily for Samardzija, and Hammel trade is a good example. It looked great for Oakland in 2014, Samardzija (16 starts 111+ innings, 0.937 WHIP) was a bear for the A’s. Hammel not so much but was a serviceable back of the rotation arm. By 2016 the trade looked great for the Cubs. Russell was an All Star and Hammel resigned as a FA.    In 2026, when all the players are long gone, it was probably fair for both sides. 

[long ball]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/what-kind-of-mlb-prospect-return-could-the-tigers-expect-for-tarik-skubal/#
 

just food for thought: similar trade deadline deals since the CC trade. 
 

Obviously some differentiating factors between these trades and a theoretical Skubal trade. 
 

If we were putting together a comparable package with our current player group you’re probably looking at something like Peña + 2-3 other interesting prospects. 

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

So the Brewers have to include 24 year old stud Henderson, Pena and more but the Dodgers only have to send a 26 year old Brandon Sproat clone and one prospect? Make it make sense