Brewers (Misiorowski) vs Rockies (TBD): 6/6/26, 8:10pm

[Frisbee Slider]

Tanner Gordon was originally slated to start tonight for Colorado but he was placed on the injured list yesterday. Rockies are TBD, so far.

Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for Milwaukee. The Miz makes his first start in June after being the second best pitcher in the National League last month 🙂

Drohan is tomorrow’s announced starter.  Gasser starts Tuesday in Las Vegas.

 

[Outlander]

With the thin air the velocity for Miz will be even more but won't see that since tracked at release point.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Should be a fun game!

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

Hope my boy Tate Kuehner gets the call up today. I wanted to see him this year but not cause of a million LHP injuries. The only other LHP in AAA are Koenig (still rehabbing), Drew Rom, and Mark Manfredi who was just recently called up to AAA.

could see it being Rom though since he’s already been working out of the pen

[igor67]

Perfect day for a low pitch count no hitter from the Miz

[willie key]

This is me being a moper but I just have a feeling miz gets touched up a little today.  Playing in Colorado sucks.   Let’s hope we score for him today

[sveumrules]

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games.

In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games.

In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games.

In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games.

So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games.

Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Hope my boy Tate Kuehner gets the call up today. I wanted to see him this year but not cause of a million LHP injuries. The only other LHP in AAA are Koenig (still rehabbing), Drew Rom, and Mark Manfredi who was just recently called up to AAA.

could see it being Rom though since he’s already been working out of the pen

Kuehner last pitched May 20th when he left the game early and injured. He's been on the 7-Day IL since. Not to rain on your parade but thems the facts.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games.

In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games.

In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games.

In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games.

So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games.

Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

When talking about the boom or bust nature of our offense, I think it would be more interesting to look at frequency of like 3+ run innings relative to the rest of MLB. I feel like the offense is pretty consistent game to game but within games it feels like so many times where the bats are terrible for like 7 innings and then they have two innings where the explode for all the runs. I feel like that’s probably pretty common around the league but I wonder if it’s more extreme for the Brewers because we, at least the last time I looked, had extreme splits with RISP vs not. 

[HarryDoyle]

4 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Tanner Gordon was originally slated to start tonight for Colorado but he was placed on the injured list yesterday. Rockies are TBD, so far.

Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for Milwaukee. The Miz makes his first start in June after being the second best pitcher in the National League last month 🙂

Drohan is tomorrow’s announced starter.  Gasser starts Tuesday in Las Vegas.

 

Is Gordon suffering from Mizitis? 

[Opening Day]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games.

In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games.

In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games.

In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games.

So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games.

Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

First of all, I appreciate all your statisical breakdowns.  No matter what it makes me think,  sometimes it's, "that's about what I thought is would be," and sometimes it's, "I guess I was wrong about ____."  So thank you.

Now as it pertains to this post, is it that the Brewers pitching is more consistent than most?  As in are there more games giving up 3-6 and less giving up less or more than that as compared to the average team. I ask because they seem to be dominant when they score 4 or more which doesnt necessarily mean an offensive onslaught. Not trying to give you a project just wondering if you had any statistical info on hand.  

 

[sveumrules]

39 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

Now as it pertains to this post, is it that the Brewers pitching is more consistent than most? 

For sure, from 2023 to present they have given up the least runs in baseball which makes the hitter's job that much easier (though those same hitters also made the pitcher's jobs that much easier by shaving an MLB best 0.40 runs per game with a 4.02 FIP but 3.62 ERA over that stretch).

[edfunderburk]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games.

In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games.

In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games.

In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games.

So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games.

Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

Hey SveumRules - Thanks as always for this post! And …

What is your day job?
Does it involve math? 

Is your avatar in a tux your HS senior pic?

[StearnsFTW]

4 hours ago, willie key said:

This is me being a moper but I just have a feeling miz gets touched up a little today.  Playing in Colorado sucks.   Let’s hope we score for him today

That's not mopey.

 

And I hope you're wrong.

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

Hey SveumRules - Thanks as always for this post! And …

What is your day job?
Does it involve math? 

Is your avatar in a tux your HS senior pic?

That's Dale Sveum's high school pic.

[Lathund]

6 hours ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Hope my boy Tate Kuehner gets the call up today. I wanted to see him this year but not cause of a million LHP injuries. The only other LHP in AAA are Koenig (still rehabbing), Drew Rom, and Mark Manfredi who was just recently called up to AAA.

could see it being Rom though since he’s already been working out of the pen

I think they'll prioritize someone on the 40-man roster over it needing to be a LHP, so I would expect Easton McGee. This is based on Koenig needing more rehab appearances, if not, it'll be him,

Though I gotta say I hadn't realized how well Rom had pitched, at least as far as ERA/FIP/xERA goes. I just think that with some likely promotions soon etc, they'll prioritize the 40-man spots over an "ideal" R/L bullpen setup. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I think they'll prioritize someone on the 40-man roster over it needing to be a LHP, so I would expect Easton McGee. This is based on Koenig needing more rehab appearances, if not, it'll be him,

Though I gotta say I hadn't realized how well Rom had pitched, at least as far as ERA/FIP/xERA goes. I just think that with some likely promotions soon etc, they'll prioritize the 40-man spots over an "ideal" R/L bullpen setup. 

Rom has been an OOTP gem for me this year so I've been rooting for him. Could get his chance with all the injuries to LHP. Still just 26 with 2 option years left.

[liveforoctober]

4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Was curious how this year's seemingly boom or bust Brewers offense compared to some of our previous units during these past 537 games where the Brewers have won the 2nd most games in MLB while scoring the 6th most runs despite a middling 101 wRC+ that ranks 17th during that time. Being thee best team on the bases (+42.2 BsR) and one of the more prolific with RISP at 5,686 PA (1st) of 118 wRC+ (2nd) for 1,913 RBI (3rd) over that stretch have undoubtedly been keys in outscoring their wRC+ rank by eleven leaderboard spots and their cumulative BaseRuns estimate by around +0.20 runs per game over these last 537 games.

In 2023 the Brewers had a 93 wRC+ (21st) and scored 4.49 R/G (17th). By my count they had 69 games (42.6% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 53 L (.232 W%) in those games. That leaves 93 games (57.4% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 76 W - 17 L (.826 W%) in those games.

In 2024 the Brewers had a 105 wRC+ (11th) and scored 4.80 R/G (6th). By my count they had 70 games (43.2% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 22 W - 48 L (.314 W%) in those games. That leaves 92 games (46.8% of team total) where they scored four or more runs going 71 W - 21 L (.772 W%) in those games.

In 2025 the Brewers had a 107 wRC+ (9th) and scored 4.98 R/G (3rd). By my count they had 64 games (39.5% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 16 W - 48 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 98 games (60.5% of team total) scoring four or more runs going 81 W - 17 L (.827 W%) in those games.

So far this year they are at a 101 wRC+ (13th) and scoring 5.08 R/G (5th). By my count they've had 24 games (39.3% of team total) scoring three or fewer runs with a record of 6 W - 18 L (.250 W%) in those games. That leaves 37 games (60.7% of team total) scoring four or more runs with a record of 32 W - 5 L (.865 W%) in those games.

Forget about three, four is the true Magic Number. Despite a lower wRC+ and higher R/G than last year which might suggest more boom or bust performance over this year's smaller sample their run distribution around that Magic Number has been pretty consistent with 2025.

So hypothetically if you are a betting individual and the Brewers are 32-5 thus far in games when they've scored 4+ runs AND we are playing a team with the worst team ERA (5+) in baseball - Brewers moneyline is statistically better than an 80% positive play.

But of course baseball .. because we were one hit yesterday until we weren't and that stat still proved positive.

[adambr2]

I think the interesting part about our offense is how many times in recent years I feel like we have said “man, the Brewers just can’t score unless they hit home runs.”

If you told me simply that how many home runs they have hit and where they rank in that category this year I would assume that things have been a major struggle on offense. 

[StearnsFTW]

32 minutes ago, liveforoctober said:

So hypothetically if you are a betting individual and the Brewers are 32-5 thus far in games when they've scored 4+ runs AND we are playing a team with the worst team ERA (5+) in baseball - Brewers moneyline is statistically better than an 80% positive play.

But of course baseball .. because we were one hit yesterday until we weren't and that stat still proved positive.

Well they're an almost 3-1 favorite so there's some room there.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Zack Agnos is starting for Colorado, He's a RHP with rather unimpressive #'s who will be making his 2nd start of the year. My biggest concern is that sometimes an unfamiliar hurler gives us fits, at least on the outset.

Sal Frelick is 7 for his last 18, including a few walks w/only 2 Ks. As per usual he hasn't struck out much all season, but I'll stand short of saying that there's been poor batted ball luck for him because until recently his contact has been pretty weak. All things considered, the guy approaches his ABs much too well for the lousy first one-third of his season to be indicative & hopefully he's starting to get on a roll. Not to mention no one on the roster comes close to him as a RF. Sticking with him through the rough patch is/was a no-brainer.

[yfinn6]

Giants blow the win against the Cubs with their closer being a moron and giving PCA a cookie (I'm listening so assuming). 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, yfinn6 said:

Giants blow the win against the Cuba with their closer being a moron and giving PCA a cookie (I'm listening so assuming). 

Splitter that hung up in the zone a bit. Very hittable but not like a huge meatball. PCA is unfortunately a very, very good baseball player.

[BruisedCrew]

PCA is extremely annoying, and a lot of people understandably like to rag on him. 

But since the incident with the White Sox fan and his disastrous series against the Brewers he has been absolutely smoking hot. 
Over the last 14 games coming into today he had an OPS over 1.000 and today he is 4 for 5 with 2 HRs, the Cubs only 2 runs so far, including the 2 out HR in the ninth to tie the game. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Hey SveumRules - Thanks as always for this post! And …

What is your day job?
Does it involve math? 

Is your avatar in a tux your HS senior pic?

My day job does not involve math, just always been interested in all those numbers on the back of the baseball cards ever since opening my first pack of 1986 Topps.

Pic is Sveumer’s actual senior photo, if the internet is to be believed. Stole it off one of those yearbook pages forever ago.