Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic
Posted

Tonight is the first MLB game in Las Vegas since 1996.

33-year-old left-hander Jeffrey Springs starts for the Athletics. The Brewers roughed him up on April 20 last season, as Milwaukee beat the A’s, 14-1. source

Kyle Harrison starts for Milwaukee. Harrison threw three scoreless innings in relief against the Athletics on September 10 last season.

image.png

Recommended Posts

Posted

On April 25th the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L, their low point of the season so far. Since then their 27 W - 10 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of ATL / PHI at 26 W - 12 L over that same stretch. Some of their pertinent rankings...

OFFENSE

5.46 R/G (1st) | 113 wRC+ (t-2nd)
.316 BABIP (t-1st) | .265 AVG (1st)
10.5 BB% (2nd) | .345 OBP (1st)
19.6 K% (3rd) | 47.9 GB% (1st)
+3.13 WPA (2nd) | 1.97 Clutch (2nd)
.325xwOBA (10th) | .334 wOBA (t-3rd)
39.1 HardHit% (17th) | 7.1 Barrel% (24th) 
31 HR (28th) | .139 ISO (26th)

441 PA w/ RISP (1st)
125 wRC+ w/ RISP (3rd)
152 RBI w/ RISP (1st)

PITCHING

3.00 RA/G (1st) | 2.77 ERA (1st)
2.95 FIP (1st) | 3.11 xERA (1st)
27.6 K% (1st) | 0.62 HR9 (1st)
.206 AVG (2nd) | 1.12 WHIP (2nd)
77.6% Strand Rate (4th) | +5.37 WPA (2nd)
33.8 HardHit% (1st) | 5.6 Barrel% (t-1st)
103.0 EV90 (1st)

Overall for these last 37 games their MLB best run differential is +91 (202 scored and 111 allowed) or +2.46 runs per game.

The low point of last year's season came a little later on with the Brewers still sitting at 21 W - 25 L after the game on May 17th. From then thru yesterday their 116 W - 63 L record is the best in MLB, eleven games ahead of NYY at 106 W - 75 L. Some of their pertinent rankings...

OFFENSE

5.26 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd)
.311 BABIP (1st) | .263 AVG (t-1st)
9.8 BB% (2nd) | .341 OBP (1st)
19.9 K% (3rd) | 45.6 GB% (1st)
+11.59 WPA (1st) | 4.30 Clutch (2nd)
.320 xwOBA (9th) | .330 wOBA (2nd)
39.3 HardHit% (22nd) | 6.9 Barrel% (28th)
179 HR (25th) | .147 ISO (25th)

1,991 PA w/ RISP (1st)
125 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st)
699 RBI w/ RISP (1st)

PITCHING

3.66 RA/G (1st) | 3.32 ERA (1st)
3.58 FIP (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st)
25.2 K% (1st) | 0.92 HR9 (1st)
.222 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (4th)
75.8% Strand Rate (2nd) | +14.91 WPA (1st)
37.6 HardHit% (1st) | 7.3 Barrel% (1st)
104.4 EV90 (2nd)

Overall for these last 179 games their MLB best run differential is +287 (942 scored and 655 allowed) or +1.60 runs per game.

  • Like 3
  • Love 5
Posted

This ballpark in Las Vegas has a reputation as a launching pad, as did the previous series at Coors. No idea if there'll be a partisan crowd/home field bump - maybe? It's a novelty or a taste of things to come, but is there any loyalty yet? Certainly a higher share of the collective Vegas sports mind is being paid to the Stanley Cup final at the moment.

The OPS for the two teams is almost identical, but the Brewers score a lot more runs. The As are not great at run prevention, however. They do have a fairly competent starter in the game Tuesday who we're throwing Gasser against, but otherwise, it's not out of the question to think a series win is the more likely outcome. But, baseball...

  • Like 1
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted

It'll be interesting to see how the Coors altitude affects these games. The Brewers had just adjusted to hitting with less movement on most pitches, and now you're back at sea level, they'll have to revert to type. Can Garrett Mitchell still hit the ball in the air?

We'll see!

Hopefully a fun week of baseball against two pretty fun offenses

 

Posted
31 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

It'll be interesting to see how the Coors altitude affects these games. The Brewers had just adjusted to hitting with less movement on most pitches, and now you're back at sea level, they'll have to revert to type. Can Garrett Mitchell still hit the ball in the air?

We'll see!

Hopefully a fun week of baseball against two pretty fun offenses

 

Vegas' elevation is not sea level - more like 2.000 feet. Milwaukee's elevation is 600 feet. I have no idea what this does to your thesis, but provided for accuracy...

ETA: Vegas' elevation will make it the 2nd highest in the league when the A's make it their permanent home. Only the D-Backs and Braves (& the Rox) are above 1k currently 

  • Like 3
Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
5 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

Vegas' elevation is not sea level - more like 2.000 feet. Milwaukee's elevation is 600 feet. I have no idea what this does to your thesis, but provided for accuracy...

Haha maybe an ideal halfway house from Colorado then!

Posted

Noticed that Garrett Mitchell cleared 600 PA in the outfield yesterday, making him one of 150 players (a nice even five per team) with that many PA playing in the OF going back to 2022. Here are some of his ranks of that leaderboard...

601 PA (149th) | 3.7 WAR (t-75th)
34.3 K% (146th) | .380 BABIP (1st)
10.8 BB% (32nd) | 51.3 GB% (6th)
.162 ISO (82nd) | 109 wRC+ (49th)

  • Like 2
Posted
15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Noticed that Garrett Mitchell cleared 600 PA in the outfield yesterday, making him one of 150 players (a nice even five per team) with that many PA playing in the OF going back to 2022. Here are some of his ranks of that leaderboard...

601 PA (149th) | 3.7 WAR (t-75th)
34.3 K% (146th) | .380 BABIP (1st)
10.8 BB% (32nd) | 51.3 GB% (6th)
.162 ISO (82nd) | 109 wRC+ (49th)

He basically has a full season's worth of PA and innings in his career and has 4.2 fWAR and 4.6 bWAR. This is a really solid player and there's so much room for improvement. We have seen the Brewers help Bauers reach his full potential as a hitter so I still have some hope for Mitchell improving as a hitter as well.

  • Like 8
  • Love 1
Posted
18 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

He basically has a full season's worth of PA and innings in his career and has 4.2 fWAR and 4.6 bWAR. This is a really solid player and there's so much room for improvement. We have seen the Brewers help Bauers reach his full potential as a hitter so I still have some hope for Mitchell improving as a hitter as well.

100%. He is still just a baby in the big leagues. If we are counting pro at bats as minor leagues + major leagues, we have plenty of prospects in the minors who are 21/22 who have more pro at bats than Mitchell. The chorus of "he is who he is" folks could end up being right... but I would say we are a good ways away from finding that out yet.

  • Like 1
Posted
7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

On April 25th the Brewers were sitting at 13 W - 13 L, their low point of the season so far. Since then their 27 W - 10 L record is the best in MLB, 1.5 games ahead of ATL / PHI at 26 W - 12 L over that same stretch. Some of their pertinent rankings...

OFFENSE

5.46 R/G (1st) | 113 wRC+ (t-2nd)
.316 BABIP (t-1st) | .265 AVG (1st)
10.5 BB% (2nd) | .345 OBP (1st)
19.6 K% (3rd) | 47.9 GB% (1st)
+3.13 WPA (2nd) | 1.97 Clutch (2nd)
.325xwOBA (10th) | .334 wOBA (t-3rd)
39.1 HardHit% (17th) | 7.1 Barrel% (24th) 
31 HR (28th) | .139 ISO (26th)

441 PA w/ RISP (1st)
125 wRC+ w/ RISP (3rd)
152 RBI w/ RISP (1st)

PITCHING

3.00 RA/G (1st) | 2.77 ERA (1st)
2.95 FIP (1st) | 3.11 xERA (1st)
27.6 K% (1st) | 0.62 HR9 (1st)
.206 AVG (2nd) | 1.12 WHIP (2nd)
77.6% Strand Rate (4th) | +5.37 WPA (2nd)
33.8 HardHit% (1st) | 5.6 Barrel% (t-1st)
103.0 EV90 (1st)

Overall for these last 37 games their MLB best run differential is +91 (202 scored and 111 allowed) or +2.46 runs per game.

The low point of last year's season came a little later on with the Brewers still sitting at 21 W - 25 L after the game on May 17th. From then thru yesterday their 116 W - 63 L record is the best in MLB, eleven games ahead of NYY at 106 W - 75 L. Some of their pertinent rankings...

OFFENSE

5.26 R/G (1st) | 112 wRC+ (2nd)
.311 BABIP (1st) | .263 AVG (t-1st)
9.8 BB% (2nd) | .341 OBP (1st)
19.9 K% (3rd) | 45.6 GB% (1st)
+11.59 WPA (1st) | 4.30 Clutch (2nd)
.320 xwOBA (9th) | .330 wOBA (2nd)
39.3 HardHit% (22nd) | 6.9 Barrel% (28th)
179 HR (25th) | .147 ISO (25th)

1,991 PA w/ RISP (1st)
125 wRC+ w/ RISP (1st)
699 RBI w/ RISP (1st)

PITCHING

3.66 RA/G (1st) | 3.32 ERA (1st)
3.58 FIP (1st) | 3.55 xERA (1st)
25.2 K% (1st) | 0.92 HR9 (1st)
.222 AVG (2nd) | 1.19 WHIP (4th)
75.8% Strand Rate (2nd) | +14.91 WPA (1st)
37.6 HardHit% (1st) | 7.3 Barrel% (1st)
104.4 EV90 (2nd)

Overall for these last 179 games their MLB best run differential is +287 (942 scored and 655 allowed) or +1.60 runs per game.

The 2026 Brewers offense is still a bit of a puzzle. It has been described as "feast or famine" and there certainly is evidence of that in this stretch of 37 games.

That stretch includes 4 games at the end of April, 7 games to begin June, and 26 games in May. In the 4 games at the end of April the Brewers scored 33 runs and in the 7 games in June they have scored 61.. So, , in those 11 games the Brewers have scored 94 runs (8.5 RPG). For the 26 games in May they scored 108 runs (4.15 RPG,, 10th best in the NL).

Interestingly, the W-L records in those two periods were almost identical. In May they were 19-7 (..731) and in the April/June games they were 8-3 (.727). The big difference is that, while the 4 games of 12 runs or more in the April/June games fluff up the run totals, they are only good for 1 win each. In May, the Brewers only had 2 games in which they scored more than 6 runs (7 and 9 once each).  But they also scored 5 or 6 runs 10 times and they won every one of those games. They scored 3 or fewer runs 10 times (no shutouts)  but, because of exceptional run prevention were still 4-6 in those 10 games.

Let's see if the offensive explosions of the last week are the beginning of a resurgent offense or a blip that has been exaggerated by piling up runs against back end relievers (and one position player). The May offense might be a better reflection of what to expect.

  • Like 1
Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
Posted
3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The May offense might be a better reflection of what to expect.

2025 (4.98 R/G)
2024 (4.80 R/G)
2023 (4.49 R/G)
2022 (4.48 R/G)
2021 (4.56 R/G)
2019 (4.75 R/G)
2018 (4.63 R/G)
2017 (4.52 R/G)
2016 (4.14 R/G)

The last time the Brewers scored as infrequently over 162 games as they did in May (4.15 R/G) was a decade ago when pitchers were still hitting.

BaseRuns thinks they should have scored 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing so far this season instead of the 5.22 R/G they've scored being the best team with RISP & one of the most clutch teams (again).

Even the notoriously pessimistic FanGraphs projections thinks they are a 4.50 R/G team from here on out. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The 2026 Brewers offense is still a bit of a puzzle. It has been described as "feast or famine" and there certainly is evidence of that in this stretch of 37 games.

That stretch includes 4 games at the end of April, 7 games to begin June, and 26 games in May. In the 4 games at the end of April the Brewers scored 33 runs and in the 7 games in June they have scored 61.. So, , in those 11 games the Brewers have scored 94 runs (8.5 RPG). For the 26 games in May they scored 108 runs (4.15 RPG,, 10th best in the NL).

Interestingly, the W-L records in those two periods were almost identical. In May they were 19-7 (..731) and in the April/June games they were 8-3 (.727). The big difference is that, while the 4 games of 12 runs or more in the April/June games fluff up the run totals, they are only good for 1 win each. In May, the Brewers only had 2 games in which they scored more than 6 runs (7 and 9 once each).  But they also scored 5 or 6 runs 10 times and they won every one of those games. They scored 3 or fewer runs 10 times (no shutouts)  but, because of exceptional run prevention were still 4-6 in those 10 games.

Let's see if the offensive explosions of the last week are the beginning of a resurgent offense or a blip that has been exaggerated by piling up runs against back end relievers (and one position player). The May offense might be a better reflection of what to expect.

Bruised I know you talk about this a lot but the numbers do not back up that the Brewers are feast or famine as an offense.

3 or fewer runs - 24 times (3rd lowest)

I can't seperate 4-5 runs from 6+ runs so I will just do 4+ and 6+ runs

4 or more runs - 39 times (T7th most)

6 or more runs - 26 times (6th most)

  • Like 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Is the new relief pitcher on the roster for tonight game?

Yes. Yoho was optioned.

  • Like 1
Posted
42 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Bruised I know you talk about this a lot but the numbers do not back up that the Brewers are feast or famine as an offense.

3 or fewer runs - 24 times (3rd lowest)

I can't seperate 4-5 runs from 6+ runs so I will just do 4+ and 6+ runs

4 or more runs - 39 times (T7th most)

6 or more runs - 26 times (6th most)

Your comment should be directed to Sveum, who has referred to the Brewers offense as “feast or famine”. 

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
Verified Member
Posted

the context for when I used "feast or famine" was in describing the top half of the order vs the bottom half. not the worst problem to have given the cost of upgrading poor talent to mediocre is far cheaper than mediocre to good. 

  • Like 1
Posted
46 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

2025 (4.98 R/G)
2024 (4.80 R/G)
2023 (4.49 R/G)
2022 (4.48 R/G)
2021 (4.56 R/G)
2019 (4.75 R/G)
2018 (4.63 R/G)
2017 (4.52 R/G)
2016 (4.14 R/G)

The last time the Brewers scored as infrequently over 162 games as they did in May (4.15 R/G) was a decade ago when pitchers were still hitting.

BaseRuns thinks they should have scored 4.77 R/G with neutral sequencing so far this season instead of the 5.22 R/G they've scored being the best team with RISP & one of the most clutch teams (again).

Even the notoriously pessimistic FanGraphs projections thinks they are a 4.50 R/G team from here on out. 

I think you would agree that the 4,15 RPG in May is closer to what the offense will be like for the rest of the season than the almost 9 runs a game in the late April/early June games. There’s even a good chance that it will be closer than the 5.26 RPG in the last 37 games.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
Posted
56 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Bruised I know you talk about this a lot but the numbers do not back up that the Brewers are feast or famine as an offense.

3 or fewer runs - 24 times (3rd lowest)

I can't seperate 4-5 runs from 6+ runs so I will just do 4+ and 6+ runs

4 or more runs - 39 times (T7th most)

6 or more runs - 26 times (6th most)

No, you need to remove all of the games they scored a lot of runs....

  • WHOA SOLVDD 1

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Brewer Fanatic Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Brewers community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of Brewer Fanatic.

×
×
  • Create New...