Sell High on Vaughn?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

This was brought up a month or two ago during Vaughn’s hot streak, and at the time I thought it was crazy, but since then he has cooled off and it looks like an extreme sellers market this year at the deadline.

I get we keep talking about Vaughn as the We side platoon partner for one of the young guys next year to help reach the gap to a few more prospects… but that seems like poor acid management to me, to potentially pay $10 million or more for a guy that should give you max 200 at bats.

I know we are going to be getting into a prospect log jam, but maybe we could trade Vaughn as part of a bigger deal for a full-time offensive player, or for some prospects that we get done and flip to get offensive player.

If Murphy would use Vaughn in a strict platoon with Yelich, I’d say keep him, but the harsh reality is that Vaughn’s PT often comes at the expense of a better offensive player.

if we don’t trade him, I think he’s a prime non-tender candidate in the offseason, so why not get some value for him now with some desperate teams in the market.

[adambr2]

Not sure what you would get for him. More than Aaron Civale, but my guess is he has more value to us than he would be worth on the trade market.

[yfinn6]

No. 

[cragi]

Definitely not.

1 - he adds value to this team

2 - the brewers are buyers, not sellers

3 - hamate surgery saps power so it’s not “selling high”

4 - if they want to move him, plenty of value in the offseason

Makes no sense whatsoever

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Not sure what you would get for him. More than Aaron Civale, but my guess is he has more value to us than he would be worth on the trade market.

He is hitting over .300 and has a year of control. We could get a useful vet pitcher for sure.

I would be ok with trading him but we would need to get a quality starter. Robbie Ray might make a lot of sense but he isnt my favorite option. Especially since he is so similar to Harrison I think that overlap would hurt in a playoff series.

In that situation I think the value we lose is made up by getting starter. I especially think that with Luke Adams playing so well that he could pick up some of the offense lost. Again it would have to be a playoff rotation arm to send him out.

[Devinep]

I’d think you’d want a vet as insurance in case Burke or Fischer take over 1B as the left platoon and struggle next year. But maybe if they believe in Luke Adams a trade would be an option 

[Lathund]

There is a very real chance he is traded in the off season, but I don't see the point of making a trade now. Would just weaken the team, and it's not as if he's so valuable as to get something game-changing in return. 

On a more general note, I don't believe GMs think anywhere near as much in terms of "sell high" as fans seem to do. A good or bad month isn't going to radically change their opinion of a player, unless there is something underlying causing the good/bad spell. But really it just comes down to the fact that if one team can see that it's an unsustainable hot streak and try to "sell high", so can the other team and they won't pay that premium. 

[Brian]

What I would like to know is why Jake Bauers has double the at bats this season as Andrew Vaughn?  Are there really that many right handed pitchers throwen against us? 

[wallus]

A team would have to overpay big time, something like the Mariners trading us Hancock.

[Outlander]

We have already seen how this team performs against lefties when lefty killers Chourio and Vaughn are gone. No thanks. As much as I think he was way overrated by the fanbase much of the year, he is a key player in the playoff run. 

[Lathund]

27 minutes ago, Brian said:

What I would like to know is why Jake Bauers has double the at bats this season as Andrew Vaughn? 

Vaughn missed a decent chunk of the season due to injury, where Bauers played every day in his absence. There are also far more RHP than LHP, meaning that in any kind of hard or soft platoon, the LHH tends to get more playing time. Vaughn is also limited to 1B only (And a couple of innings at 3B after late pinch hits), whereas Bauers can play OF (even if he's not great there), giving Bauers more opportunities. The publicly available metrics suggest Bauers underlying numbers are a bit better, and I would assume (based on usage) that the Brewers' own metrics say the same. So combine these and I don't think it's very surprising. 

[Dadbauer]

I love Vaughn on this teram, he's been great for us and is a great guy to have even if he's a big at bat off the bench late in a game. He's probably going to be our everyday 1B next year when Bauers leaves. But I think you need to be opportunistic and while I wouldn't go out of my way to actively shop him, if a team comes to you looking for a bat and wants to give you a controllable bullpen arm that you like in return, I think you gotta think hard about it. Very different circumstances, but I don't think the Brewers came into the year having any intention of trading Durbin and all his backups, but when an opportunity arises you gotta be open to it and it seems possible with Vaughn.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

9 hours ago, cragi said:

Definitely not.

1 - he adds value to this team

2 - the brewers are buyers, not sellers

3 - hamate surgery saps power so it’s not “selling high”

4 - if they want to move him, plenty of value in the offseason

Makes no sense whatsoever

I just don’t see Vaughn having any surplus value at $10M next season.  If we can get him for $3-5M, sure….

i’ll be curious to see what the arby system does with him.  I’d have to think he’s all but assured of a raise from his current $7M though.

reminds me of the Hunter Renfroe situation a couple years back

 

 

[rickh150]

He’s the right handed 1B of 2027 to pair with some left handed rookie. It’s a great situation.

[sveumrules]

Between Woodruff, Bauers and Sanchez the Brewers have like $26M coming off the books for next year,

The only guys likely to see big increases in Arby are Contreras, Vaughn, Megill, and Turang.

Guys going into year one of Arby are Priester, Sal, Ortiz, Hamilton, Gasser, DL Hall, and Grant Anderson, none of whom should probably be in line for a particularly large number. Guys like Koenig, Perkins, and Rob Z are also listed as possible Arb One guys but could all be in danger of non tender at this point.

Barring Bauers accepting whatever version of the Qualifying Offer might make its way into the new CBA there should be plenty of money to retain Vaughn for veteran depth even if it doesn't look to be a slam dunk value from a $/WAR standpoint.

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

Not worth it imo, maybe in the offseason since he has 1 year of control left before FA and will cost around $10 mil next year. He provides some of the power we already have little of. Type of guy we’d be trying to acquire if we didn’t already have him.

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

35 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

He’s the right handed 1B of 2027 to pair with some left handed rookie. It’s a great situation.

This, if they don’t trade him and pay him his arb money next year like $10 mil he would pair nice with one of Fischer or Burke as the LHB (whichever one isn’t traded). Otherwise since they are likely to lose Bauers you don’t want to trot out 2 rookies as a platoon at 1B (L. Adams and one of Burke/Fischer).

But, then you lose him in FA after 2027 for nothing assuming not re-signed, unless you trade him mid-2027

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Vaughn offers consistent right handed power in an offense lacking power.  He should be playing everyday.

Lara RF

Chourio LF

Turang 2B

Contreras C

Mitchell CF

Vaughn 1B/DH

Yelich DH/ Bauers /1B

Pratt/Ortiz SS

Ortiz/ Hamilton 3B/SS

[PBTank]

10 minutes ago, BrewCrewBlueDevil said:

Vaughn offers consistent right handed power in an offense lacking power.  He should be playing everyday.

Lara RF

Chourio LF

Turang 2B

Contreras C

Mitchell CF

Vaughn 1B/DH

Yelich DH/ Bauers /1B

Pratt/Ortiz SS

Ortiz/ Hamilton 3B/SS

I've been hoping for them to have enough confidence in Lara in the leadoff position.  I think they are getting there and moving Yelich down in the order like the suggested lineup shown.  I'm on board.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I think we are in agreement that Yelich/Vaughn/Bauers should be splitting time at 1B/DH, with maybe a bit of wild Bill at DH.

prior to the emergence of Lara and Mitchell, Bauers in the OF made sense, but not now.

if Vaughn is going to play more (I still think he’s mediocre versus RHP) it should be at the expense of Yelich.