Assessing the offense

[sveumrules]

Thru April 30th
5.33 R/G over 30 games
142 wRC+ with RISP

Month of May
4.15 R/G over 26 games
107 wRC+ with RISP

June 1st to June 8th
9.50 R/G over eight games
154 wRC+ with RISP

June 9th to August 16th
4.33 R/G over 61 games
87 wRC+ with RISP

August 18th
22 runs in one game
336 wRC+ with RISP

August 19th to September 4th
5.31 R/G over 16 games
124 wRC+ with RISP

Twenty games (plus October) yet to go, but is it possible that pouring it on for 22 runs woke the Brewers offense from their midseason slumber? 

[sveumrules]

On 9/5/2026 at 9:01 AM, sveumrules said:

August 19th to September 4th
5.31 R/G over 16 games
124 wRC+ with RISP

Twenty games (plus October) yet to go, but is it possible that pouring it on for 22 runs woke the Brewers offense from their midseason slumber? 

Looks like the offense has continued their upward trajectory over the couple weeks since our last update...

September 5th to September 20th
6.46 R/G over 13 games
167 wRC+ with RISP

For the season as a whole...

.341 OBP (1st) | 10.6 BB% (1st) | 1,793 PA w/RISP (1st) | 119 wRC+ w/RISP (1st) | 645 R w/ RISP (1st) | 5.15 R/G (2nd) | .258 AVG (2nd) | 107 wRC+ (3rd) | +6.37 WPA (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (3rd) | +8.0 BsR (3rd) | .322 xwOBA (4th) | .145 ISO (25th)

[Frisbee Slider]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Looks like the offense has continued their upward trajectory over the couple weeks since our last update...

September 5th to September 20th
6.46 R/G over 13 games
167 wRC+ with RISP

For the season as a whole...

.341 OBP (1st) | 10.6 BB% (1st) | 1,793 PA w/RISP (1st) | 119 wRC+ w/RISP (1st) | 645 R w/ RISP (1st) | 5.15 R/G (2nd) | .258 AVG (2nd) | 107 wRC+ (3rd) | +6.37 WPA (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (3rd) | +8.0 BsR (3rd) | .322 xwOBA (4th) | .145 ISO (25th)

For being a bad offense, we sure are the best at a lot of things 

[Underachiever]

8 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

For being a bad offense, we sure are the best at a lot of things 

Damn, you've fallen into Sveum's positivity trap.

[gregmag]

On the broadcast last night, Ben McDonald was talking about how the Brewers’ offense is built to win in the postseason, because it gets difficult to hit home runs off great pitching so you need to be able to play small ball. Of course, that’s the exact opposite of the conventional line, repeated over and over again this year, that only home runs win in the postseason.

Has anyone done an actual, thorough analysis of postseason offense? I’ve heard over and over the stat that teams that hit home runs win more postseason series, but that’s not useful information by itself. I suspect that teams that hit more singles or doubles or steal more bases also win more postseason series, because all of those things contribute to winning games.

 

[Brian]

On 8/26/2026 at 5:29 PM, Turning2 said:

It doesn't feel like a "best record in baseball" offense that's for sure. And yet, there they are by way of great pitching and defense and very little power. Seems unlikely that they can win like this in the playoffs.

I agree it doesn't fell like it at all, but it is.  I still dislike Counsell immensely but liked Bregman and Altuve with Houston. 

Yesterday.

 

[jay87shot]

I think this is the most balanced offense we have ever had. With Joey's 180 and Pratt and Lara at least being avaerage there isn't a weak spot in the lineup. Yes we could hit more HR but everyone other than Lara and Pratt (probably Joey) are guys who can easily be 20-35 HR guys. I think next year we could see Chourio take off and really make a run at MVP type numbers, his confidence is really starting to match his ability.

Yeli is probably our worst bat right now but we have seen a few flashes, hopefully he is the leader we know him to be in the playoffs and had a couple big knocks.

[Underachiever]

38 minutes ago, gregmag said:

On the broadcast last night, Ben McDonald was talking about how the Brewers’ offense is built to win in the postseason, because it gets difficult to hit home runs off great pitching so you need to be able to play small ball. Of course, that’s the exact opposite of the conventional line, repeated over and over again this year, that only home runs win in the postseason.

Has anyone done an actual, thorough analysis of postseason offense? I’ve heard over and over the stat that teams that hit home runs win more postseason series, but that’s not useful information by itself. I suspect that teams that hit more singles or doubles or steal more bases also win more postseason series, because all of those things contribute to winning games.

 

Thorough? No, but I asked screwball.com to compare pct of runs scored in reg vs postseason. It shows an increase for each year:

Year	Regular	Playoff	Increase
2026	40.50%
2025	41.10%	45.40%	4.30%
2024	40.70%	47.00%	6.30%
2023	41.00%	49.10%	8.10%
2022	39.80%	46.80%	7.00%
2021	42.70%	49.80%	7.10%
2020	43.70%	51.30%	7.60%
2019	45.20%	46.60%	1.40%
2018	40.30%	42.40%	2.10%
2017	42.30%	50.90%	8.60%
2016	40.20%	42.50%	2.30%
2015	37.30%	41.70%	4.40%

[Samurai Bucky]

41 minutes ago, gregmag said:

On the broadcast last night, Ben McDonald was talking about how the Brewers’ offense is built to win in the postseason, because it gets difficult to hit home runs off great pitching so you need to be able to play small ball. Of course, that’s the exact opposite of the conventional line, repeated over and over again this year, that only home runs win in the postseason.

Has anyone done an actual, thorough analysis of postseason offense? I’ve heard over and over the stat that teams that hit home runs win more postseason series, but that’s not useful information by itself. I suspect that teams that hit more singles or doubles or steal more bases also win more postseason series, because all of those things contribute to winning games.

 

Not quite the same thing but he uses the Lasso Regression.

 

[BruisedCrew]

On 9/20/2026 at 9:14 AM, sveumrules said:

Looks like the offense has continued their upward trajectory over the couple weeks since our last update...

September 5th to September 20th
6.46 R/G over 13 games
167 wRC+ with RISP

For the season as a whole...

.341 OBP (1st) | 10.6 BB% (1st) | 1,793 PA w/RISP (1st) | 119 wRC+ w/RISP (1st) | 645 R w/ RISP (1st) | 5.15 R/G (2nd) | .258 AVG (2nd) | 107 wRC+ (3rd) | +6.37 WPA (3rd) | 0.49 BB/K (3rd) | +8.0 BsR (3rd) | .322 xwOBA (4th) | .145 ISO (25th)

The offense definitely rebounded from the mediocre stretch from mid June to mid August,  and that carried them through the period you described from August 19 to September 4 that included the 7 games against the Cubs that removed any doubt about the division race. 

The hot scoring streak continued through the first two games of the Reds series that produced 33 runs. But the upward trajectory has stalled in the last week with 27 runs in 7 games (3.86 RPG).

We saw what the offense was capable of in that stretch of 24 games from August 18 through September 12. As regular followers of the board know, I am less impressed by the total number of runs scored in a small sample of games when they are bolstered by extremely high run scoring games than I am by scoring high, but less extreme, amounts of runs more frequently. In that run of 24 games the Brewers scored 8 runs or more 10 times. They only scored 8 or more runs  9 times in the 61 games between June 8 and August 17. 

At this point there's no way of knowing what the offense will be like when the playoffs come. With a week off before the first playoff game any hot or cold streak over the last two weeks isn't going to be very predictive as the lineups are shuffled to give everyone some playing time and everyone some rest.

 

 

 

[BruisedCrew]

A little run scoring trivia.

The Brewers are averaging a little over 5 runs per game. 

Without looking it up, what do you think is the most common number of runs the Brewers have scored in a game?

[JCREW]

19 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

A little run scoring trivia.

The Brewers are averaging a little over 5 runs per game. 

Without looking it up, what do you think is the most common number of runs the Brewers have scored in a game?

My guess is 4. Medians, means, and modes matter, people.

The average death age of American men is 76, (life expectancy) but the more American men die at age 86 than at any other age. 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, JCREW said:

My guess is 4. Medians, means, and modes matter, people. 

Since Arnold took over four has definitely been the Magic Number.

2023
3 or fewer (42.6% of games)
16 W - 53 L (.232 W%)
4 or more (57.4% of games)
76 W - 17 L (.826 W%)

2024
3 or fewer (43.2% of games)
22 W - 48 L (.314 W%)
4 or more (56.8% of games)
71 W - 21 L (.772 W%)

2025
3 or fewer (39.5% of games)
16 W - 48 L (.250 W%)
4 or more (60.5% of games)
81 W - 17 L (.827 W%)

2026
3 or fewer (38.5% of games)
16 W - 44 L (.267 W%)
4 or more (61.5% of games)
82 W - 14 L (.854 W%)

[nate82]

43 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Since Arnold took over four has definitely been the Magic Number.

Scoring 4 runs is where you start to see a neutral probability of winning a game.  If you are averaging 4 or more runs a game you will likely be winning a lot of games.  Though this also depends on run prevention.  If you are scoring 4 or more a game but are giving up 4 or more a game then you are back at a neutral probability.  A team that gives up 4 or more runs a game and scores 4 or more runs a game should be around the 75-85 win mark.

The 3 or fewer record for the Brewers also tracks with the win probability which is at about 30% for 3 runs, about 20% for 2 runs and below 10% for 1 run scored.  

[gregmag]

6 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Not quite the same thing but he uses the Lasso Regression.

 

That’s super interesting. Thank you!

[Brian]

On 7/31/2026 at 8:41 AM, cragi said:

Seems it could be good to handle the slumps by giving them time to reset, and then you give more opportunities for some of the quality depth.

One game off here and there would be 100% ok unless there is a medical issue which would require more time off. 

[Just Some Guy]

7 hours ago, gregmag said:

On the broadcast last night, Ben McDonald was talking about how the Brewers’ offense is built to win in the postseason, because it gets difficult to hit home runs off great pitching so you need to be able to play small ball. Of course, that’s the exact opposite of the conventional line, repeated over and over again this year, that only home runs win in the postseason.

Has anyone done an actual, thorough analysis of postseason offense? I’ve heard over and over the stat that teams that hit home runs win more postseason series, but that’s not useful information by itself. I suspect that teams that hit more singles or doubles or steal more bases also win more postseason series, because all of those things contribute to winning games.

 

Power is key to winning in the postseason.  I think it's attributed to elite pitchers, who might make a single mistake a player can whack, but are less likely to make the series of mistakes small ball needs to manufacture runs.

Per Claude AI:

Regular season: Historically around 38-40% of runs score via home run in the modern era. The FiveThirtyEight analysis pegged a recent regular season at 40% (described as the highest since at least 1995 at that time). The 2014 regular season was 33%, illustrating year-to-year variance.

Postseason: Consistently higher, typically in the 43-51% range depending on the year. Specific data points:

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, JCREW said:

My guess is 4. Medians, means, and modes matter, people.

The average death age of American men is 76, (life expectancy) but the more American men die at age 86 than at any other age. 

I apologize if any of the numbers I'm going to cite here are a little off. I compiled them myself now that Baseball Reference no longer includes tables providing the information and I haven't found another source,

By my count the Brewers have scored 2 runs more than any other score and it isn't that close. They have scored 2 runs 27 times. The full breakdown with won-loss records is:

0 runs : 6 times, 0 wins, 6 losses (.000) 

1 run:  7  (1-6) . (.143)

2 runs: 27 (10-17) (.370)

3 runs: 20 (5-15) (.250)

4 runs: 20 (16-4) (.800)

5 runs: 17 (14-3) (823)

6 runs 17 (14-3) (..823)

7 runs: 7 (6-1) (.857)

8 runs: 14 (12-2) (.857)

9 runs: 8 (7-1) (.875)

10+ runs 13 (13-0) (1.000)

I also looked at the distributions for the other NL playoff teams to see how the Brewers compare. One thing that strikes me is that the Brewers have scored 0-2 runs a total of 40 times,, which is pretty comparable to the other teams ( Cubs 38, Dodgers 41, Braves 43, Phillies 49, Padres 43) .

But because of the 27 times scoring 2 runs, they only have 13 games of 0 or 1, whcih almost always result in defeats. By comparison, the Cubs have 25 games of 0 or 1, (including 13 shutouts) and are 1-24 in those games. The Dodgers have 18, the Braves 26, the Phillies 32, and the Padres 24.

In those 27 games of scoring 2 runs, the Brewers are 10-17 (.370), which is pretty notable considering that the league average when scoring 2 runs is about 23%. 

It's something of an anomaly that the winning percentage drops when the Brewers score 3 runs, but once they get to 4 the winning percentage soars. Their winning percentage when scoring 4, 5, or 6 runs is significantly above league averages, a tribute to the run prevention. 

[Just Some Guy]

39 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I apologize if any of the numbers I'm going to cite here are a little off. I compiled them myself now that Baseball Reference no longer includes tables providing the information and I haven't found another source,

By my count the Brewers have scored 2 runs more than any other score and it isn't that close. They have scored 2 runs 27 times. The full breakdown with won-loss records is:

0 runs : 6 times, 0 wins, 6 losses (.000) 

1 run:  7  (1-6) . (.143)

2 runs: 27 (10-17) (.370)

3 runs: 20 (5-15) (.250)

4 runs: 20 (16-4) (.800)

5 runs: 17 (14-3) (823)

6 runs 17 (14-3) (..823)

7 runs: 7 (6-1) (.857)

8 runs: 14 (12-2) (.857)

9 runs: 8 (7-1) (.875)

10+ runs 13 (13-0) (1.000)

I also looked at the distributions for the other NL playoff teams to see how the Brewers compare. One thing that strikes me is that the Brewers have scored 0-2 runs a total of 40 times,, which is pretty comparable to the other teams ( Cubs 38, Dodgers 41, Braves 43, Phillies 49, Padres 43) .

But because of the 27 times scoring 2 runs, they only have 13 games of 0 or 1, whcih almost always result in defeats. By comparison, the Cubs have 25 games of 0 or 1, (including 13 shutouts) and are 1-24 in those games. The Dodgers have 18, the Braves 26, the Phillies 32, and the Padres 24.

In those 27 games of scoring 2 runs, the Brewers are 10-17 (.370), which is pretty notable considering that the league average when scoring 2 runs is about 23%. 

It's something of an anomaly that the winning percentage drops when the Brewers score 3 runs, but once they get to 4 the winning percentage soars. Their winning percentage when scoring 4, 5, or 6 runs is significantly above league averages, a tribute to the run prevention. 

Good data, thanks.

[RWeeksFan23]

On 9/21/2026 at 8:54 AM, jay87shot said:

I think this is the most balanced offense we have ever had. With Joey's 180 

I know Ortiz has been swinging the bat much, much better the last couple months, but he's been having some BAD chases out of the zone lately; that concerns me.