How Brewers Can Respond After Dodgers Trade for Tarik Skubal

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Beating the Dodgers isn't necessarily the Brewers' job. It's taken for granted, in many circles, that the Brewers will eventually have to go through Los Angeles in October to reach the World Series for the first time since 1982, but in reality, someone else will get a crack at that team first. For fans, players and the front office, it would be unhealthy, unproductive and inefficient to spend time obsessing over the Dodgers. The Brewers have their own work to do, and it shouldn't be a response to the Dodgers'.

That's much easier to say than it is to live out, though, on the morning after Tarik Skubal landed with the sport's most successful dynasty since the turn of the 21st century. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman pushed his chips to the center of the table to haul in Skubal from the forgettable Tigers, as he attempts to secure Los Angeles's third straight World Series title. The Brewers had been in on Skubal, a source familiar with the discussions said, but they always knew the Dodgers were the favorites. As such, Brewers president of baseball ops Matt Arnold has been planning his pivot for some time.

Though he's an impending free agent, Skubal was priced like a controllable one; that's one reason why the Brewers were never likely to land him. The package the Tigers received in exchange for Skubal is far richer than what any other pitcher headed for the market this fall will command, so the Brewers could choose to focus on one of those hurlers to keep acquisition costs down. They've talked to the Tigers about Casey Mize, the former No. 1 overall pick and another impending free agent, though the fit between what Mize does and what the Brewers like is imperfect.

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Casey Mize, Tigers

RHP  Age: 29 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $6.15m

The first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft came into pro ball throwing strikes, and hasn’t stopped. However, injuries and the mysteries of pitching development have held him back in all bids to be the frontline starter the Tigers hoped they were getting with that selection. This year, he’s figured out the latter. He’s now missing bats like a high-end starter, with a pitch mix that has become exceptionally varied. Injuries haven’t stopped nagging and nipping at him, but he’s showing the feel and command that were supposed to make him an elite starter. That it’s happening amid a season in which the Tigers just can’t get untracked is deeply unfortunate, but that it’s happening at all gives the team a chance to cash him in for some real long-term value, rather than watching him leave for modest draft-pick compensation this winter.

Arnold and Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom have known each other for 20 years, which provides the kind of foundation required to pull off intradivisional trades in July. St. Louis is likely to deal Dustin May, and the Brewers have checked in there, too. May suits the Crew's pitching predilections neatly, too: good velocity, good extension, three fastballs, and so on.

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Dustin May, Cardinals

RHP  Age: 28 FA: Nov 2026* Sal: $12.5m

It’s great to see May come through a multi-year run of miserable injury luck to pitch the way many long believed he could. Not has his good season with the Cards been solely about being available. He’s throwing more strikes, thanks in part to a rejiggered approach that favors four-seamers, cutters and changeups at the expense of sinkers and sweepers. He still has an extremely lively arm, and his stuff is playing better this season, thanks to his newfound ability to fill up the zone. As an impending free agent on a team that still views itself as building for a future brighter than its present, though, he’s a strong candidate to be dealt. Unless the Cardinals can strike a deal with him this month to convert his mutual option for 2027 into a multi-year commitment, he’ll be on the market, and should slot nicely into the back half of a playoff-caliber rotation.

Milwaukee has also talked to the Giants about both Tyler Mahle and Robbie Ray. Of the two, Ray comes with the higher price tag, but is also pitching better this season. The Brewers have talked internally about starters they could acquire to work in the back half of the rotation down the stretch, before moving to the bullpen in October. Ray would be a good candidate for that, and has done a version of it before.

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Robbie Ray, Giants

LHP  Age: 34 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $25m

If you’re feeling uncharitable, you’ll note that Ray still walks plenty of batters but isn’t striking out as many this year. You might wonder if his solid surface-level numbers are mostly a matter of playing his home games at Oracle Park in San Francisco. However, reintroducing his sinker has helped him get off the barrel more consistently this year, so much of the extra contact hitters are making is early in counts and unproductive. He still has multiple secondary offerings with good swing-and-miss numbers; he blends experience and stuff almost as well as Sonny Gray and Freddy Peralta. He no longer has frontline potential, but he can be a mid-rotation option even for teams planning deep forays into the postseason. The Giants are not such a team, and would love to get rid of his hefty salary for the final two months.

The final dual option for Milwaukee on the rental starter front could be the Mets, who have both Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes on the market. Holmes is still rehabbing from a broken leg, but his profile is extremely similar to that of Quinn Priester. Needless to say, the Brewers are intrigued by that. A reunion with Peralta would be a joyous occasion for the team, but it might also be fraught; there's worry within the organization about the emotional toll it might take on all parties if Peralta's rough season continues after a would-be triumphant return.

As always, though, the team remains open-minded and interested in making bigger moves, if the right opportunity is there. Milwaukee has talked to the Rockies about starter Ryan Feltner, who has two more years of team control after 2026 and is having a strong season. Feltner, 29, has an extremely strange arsenal, with relative cut on his four-seam fastball and his changeup and an erratic but dastardly sinker-slider combination. He won't be cheap, but Feltner is one medium-term acquisition who could be a level-booster for the Milwaukee rotation.

Beyond those names, what Arnold might come up with is anyone's guess. The Brewers have not been frontrunners for Reid Detmers of the Angels, but José Soriano is "up their alley" and the team has checked in with interim Angels GM John Mozeliak about a number of players, a source said. Adding a starter remains an important box on the to-do checklist, but the team is also focused on deepending their stable to high-leverage relievers. That could lead them back to the Mets and Luke Weaver; it could also mean pursuing Orioles righty Tyler Wells.

Skubal was never in the cards for Milwaukee. It was a nice idea, given their competitive position and how great he is, but the value Detroit demanded in return—and eventually got, from a team closer to the end of its championship window than the Brewers are—was more than he would have been worth to the Crew. Arnold has less than 36 hours to respond, but he's not in a direct arms race with Friedman. He just needs to help a great team get to October with its legs underneath it.

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[biedergb]

so if we had traded Adamzewski, Knoth and Crow, would that have been an equivalent package, or even more than what the LAD gave up?? Probably too much.

I mean Hope is a good player, but no Sirota or DePaula. Adamczewski is probably in line or slightly less than him given the defensive limitations. Crow is formerly injured, talented pitcher, and the thrid pitcher  Brady Smith is back of the top 30 for Dodgers which would make it more like ~40 for our depth. So maybe not even Knoth, but Renz or Torres?

Shoot I would  have offered Renz, Crow and Jett Williams for a rental in Skubal for sure. Maybe not Knoth and Adamczewski, but one could have been an upgrade to do it.  I was hearing rumors of Luis Pena, or Logan Henderson, and that would have been an overpay. Dodgers got a steal yet again. And great for baseball to have LA win yet another championship. Just incredible and awful for this sport.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

How do we know Skubal was not done to respond to us getting Naylor?

[Matthew Trueblood]

7 minutes ago, biedergb said:

so if we had traded Adamzewski, Knoth and Crow, would that have been an equivalent package, or even more than what the LAD gave up?? Probably too much.

I mean Hope is a good player, but no Sirota or DePaula. Adamczewski is probably in line or slightly less than him given the defensive limitations. Crow is formerly injured, talented pitcher, and the thrid pitcher  Brady Smith is back of the top 30 for Dodgers which would make it more like ~40 for our depth. So maybe not even Knoth, but Renz or Torres?

Shoot I would  have offered Renz, Crow and Jett Williams for a rental in Skubal for sure. Maybe not Knoth and Adamczewski, but one could have been an upgrade to do it.  I was hearing rumors of Luis Pena, or Logan Henderson, and that would have been an overpay. Dodgers got a steal yet again. And great for baseball to have LA win yet another championship. Just incredible and awful for this sport.

Nahh. Hope might or might not really pan out, but the industry (and certainly the Tigers) considers him a legit high-end prospect. He's two tiers above Adamczewski; Detroit would not have accepted Adamczewski as the centerpiece of a deal. 

That's not a guarantee that Adamczewski won't be better than Hope; I think you and I can both imagine that outcome. But the market was never going to and does not value Adamczewski as highly as Hope, or even especially close. Just file this away, because in a few years, if Adamczewski pans out because of how good the Brewers' hitting dev is and Hope wobbles, you'll be extra pleased that they didn't make this move. 

FWIW, from what I heard, Tigers wanted to start with Peña and get either Henderson or two other arms instead, including Tyson Hardin. I would not have made that deal, if I were Matt Arnold.

[biedergb]

1 minute ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

FWIW, from what I heard, Tigers wanted to start with Peña and get either Henderson or two other arms instead, including Tyson Hardin. I would not have made that deal, if I were Matt Arnold.

But that's not even CLOSE to what they got from the Dodgers.  Hope is a top 30 overall prospect who has "fallen" to 40-50s.  And no way would I even offer Henderson and Hardin for what they gave the Tigers, I'd do one of ours for both of them, but wow.

So maybe a better comp - Payne (power and former 1st rounder) or Burke, plus Crow/Renz.

[Matthew Trueblood]

16 minutes ago, biedergb said:

But that's not even CLOSE to what they got from the Dodgers.  Hope is a top 30 overall prospect who has "fallen" to 40-50s.  And no way would I even offer Henderson and Hardin for what they gave the Tigers, I'd do one of ours for both of them, but wow.

So maybe a better comp - Payne (power and former 1st rounder) or Burke, plus Crow/Renz.

We don't have to do hypothetical spitballing here, man. I am telling you what the Tigers *actually asked the Brewers for*. You don't like the price! Neither did the Brewers! That's why Skubal's a Dodger!

This happens every time there's a big trade; the temptation is to insist on a certain parallel-making and on an objective reality that anchors that exercise. That doesn't exist. These players aren't available on a transparent market to be exchanged for currency with an agreed-upon worth; that's free agency. In trades, how each team evaluates each player under consideration is really all that matters. The Tigers were never going to take anything remotely akin to Payne (or Adamczewski) plus Crow and Knoth or Renz. I'm sorry, folks. That wasn't an option. 

[KCBrewerfan34]

Any chance the Tigers asked Skubal where he wanted to go? If the packages were/are close let’s give the player the place he wants to go. 

 

[Frisbee Slider]

5 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Any chance the Tigers asked Skubal where he wanted to go? If the packages were/are close let’s give the player the place he wants to go. 

 

There is absolutely no reason to do that and would likely hurt collective bargaining. Skubal does not have a no trade clause.

[KCBrewerfan34]

3 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

There is absolutely no reason to do that and would likely hurt collective bargaining. Skubal does not have a no trade clause.

That doesn’t remotely violate the CBA. If the packages are close, the 2 time CY says my family wants LA, here’s a thank you for what you’ve done. Nobody else apparently topped the Dodgers perceived value of prospects. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

24 minutes ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Any chance the Tigers asked Skubal where he wanted to go? If the packages were/are close let’s give the player the place he wants to go. 

 

No. 

[owbc]

I think we'll acquire pitching depth but I'm not impressed with the list of what's available. I don't see a single guy on that list slotting higher than #4 in our rotation and a few of them would be our 6th or 7th best option. 

Dustin May and Freddy would be my top two rental picks. Soriano intrigues me the most out of the non-rental options (assuming Kirby is no longer available). 

For relievers, the available options look like depth pieces, not true needle movers. I have liked Senzatela but haven't heard us rumored to be interested.

It feels like we need to do at least one decent trade given the signals the front office has sent and the gut punch from Skubal going to LA. 

[biedergb]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

We don't have to do hypothetical spitballing here, man. I am telling you what the Tigers *actually asked the Brewers for*. You don't like the price! Neither did the Brewers! That's why Skubal's a Dodger!

This happens every time there's a big trade; the temptation is to insist on a certain parallel-making and on an objective reality that anchors that exercise. That doesn't exist. These players aren't available on a transparent market to be exchanged for currency with an agreed-upon worth; that's free agency. In trades, how each team evaluates each player under consideration is really all that matters. The Tigers were never going to take anything remotely akin to Payne (or Adamczewski) plus Crow and Knoth or Renz. I'm sorry, folks. That wasn't an option. 

I hear you. I am more just shocked at the return. My exercise was to estimate what that trade would have been close to. Obviously the tigers see it very differently, but that is an incredibly underwhelming return, and my best guess was that was the “similar” package in terms of talent.  Or am I completely underestimating the dodgers players (who I know nothing about other than Hope).  But the Payne/Crow/Renz package, yeah if I’m Detroit I’d say “no way” as well, but it is similar to what they just took in from the dodgers in terms of prospect valuation - which seems odd.

And of course I wouldn’t have given up Peña and Henderson and also heard that was the ask. And I’m glad we didn’t. But they settled for far less than Pena and Henderson.  I am curious as to why they would haven taken such a deal. Rhetorical question as I know the answer - they value those players way more than many ranking models (most likely) or they got desperate to make a deal and took something (less likely)

 

EDIT : ESPN (yeah I know, not exactly the most knowledgeable for mlb) gave the tigers a “D” grade which is kinda what I was thinking. Dodgers kept another team from acquiring skubal and far less of a package than what was being expected or asked for. Oh well, yet another example of how baseball is broken 

[OldHeidelberg]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

 

FWIW, from what I heard, Tigers wanted to start with Peña and get either Henderson or two other arms instead, including Tyson Hardin. I would not have made that deal, if I were Matt Arnold.

This board has been pretty adamant that Henderson was too much but if this is true, Pena + Hardin + another pitcher let's say either Gasser or Letson. Still too much but I think I could live with it.

[ChapelHeel66]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Nahh. Hope might or might not really pan out, but the industry (and certainly the Tigers) considers him a legit high-end prospect. He's two tiers above Adamczewski; Detroit would not have accepted Adamczewski as the centerpiece of a deal. 

That's not a guarantee that Adamczewski won't be better than Hope; I think you and I can both imagine that outcome. But the market was never going to and does not value Adamczewski as highly as Hope, or even especially close. Just file this away, because in a few years, if Adamczewski pans out because of how good the Brewers' hitting dev is and Hope wobbles, you'll be extra pleased that they didn't make this move. 

FWIW, from what I heard, Tigers wanted to start with Peña and get either Henderson or two other arms instead, including Tyson Hardin. I would not have made that deal, if I were Matt Arnold.

Agreed. The Dodgers are in position to resign Skubal, making him more than a two-month rental.  We would have lost that off-season sweepstakes.  I'd rather pay less and get Detmers, for example, and also add a bat.

[ImissDougMelvin]

Holy crap, if the names in this article are even remotely close to who they are pursuing, then they really are/were swinging big!🙄My god, not a single needle mover in that group. In fact, not even close to anything helpful other than some Innings eaters. Big whoop. Arnolds killing it at the deadline once again! 

[trwi7]

They shouldn't respond.  They are huge underdogs at this point and spending any meaningful prospect capital to respond to the Dodgers getting Skubal is stupid.  No move or series or moves they make would make them favorites to come out of the NL.

[biedergb]

5 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

They shouldn't respond.  They are huge underdogs at this point and spending any meaningful prospect capital to respond to the Dodgers getting Skubal is stupid.  No move or series or moves they make would make them favorites to come out of the NL.

I’m agreeing here. This is a fun season and we should be happy the brewers are in the running for top 5 team in regular season, but with the dodgers jogging to a best or next to best record, and the Cubs playing equal to the brewers the last 2 months, this is not likely to be the year to push the cards in.  Roll with what we have, and see if we can make a little noise.

[liveforoctober]

I think you need to reverse your filters on available pitchers to see who we are targeting. We are not going after the guy having his best season, paying appropriate value for him, to hope he continues it here.

We are going after the guys who have shown to be capable/good guys in their careers who have had a rough 3+ months, that we can acquire for a song, and hope they return to their normal.

I would be FAR more shocked if we trade for Robbie Ray than I would we do something a little wacky and trade for Jose Quintana and his sprained elbow or something.

[adambr2]

They can and should make some marginal improvements to their bullpen. 

Other than that they should just focus on winning the division with a top 2 NL record, and going into the postseason with Miz, Harrison, Henderson, Drohan, Uribe and Megill healthy and pitching at a high level. Those are the 1A and 1B priorities, neither more important than the other. 

They should quietly accept the fact that Yelich is washed and start giving some other players opportunities in run producing spots in the lineup while there is still time for adjustments before the end of the season and not expect that he is going to recover his bat speed against elite pitching and carry the offense in October. 

[Brian]

49 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

There is absolutely no reason to do that and would likely hurt collective bargaining. Skubal does not have a no trade clause.

Skubal is not stupid, Dodgers will pay Skubal about $9.5m for the remainder of the season.  The Los Angeles Dodgers are valued at $9.05 billion according to a March 2026 report by Sportico and owner Mark Walter's worth is 16 Billion.

Also, Mark Walter co-founded the firm Liberty Hampshire, into the Guggenheim family office. As CEO, he grew it into a global empire managing over $300 billion in assets. 

[ImissDougMelvin]

12 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

They can and should make some marginal improvements to their bullpen. 

Other than that they should just focus on winning the division with a top 2 NL record, and going into the postseason with Miz, Harrison, Henderson, Drohan, Uribe and Megill healthy and pitching at a high level. Those are the 1A and 1B priorities, neither more important than the other. 

They should quietly accept the fact that Yelich is washed and start giving some other players opportunities in run producing spots in the lineup while there is still time for adjustments before the end of the season and not expect that he is going to recover his bat speed against elite pitching and carry the offense in October. 

This development has been so bizarre to me...I mean he hit 29 HR's and knocked in over 100 last year. To watch him this year is just shocking. Like how does a guy drop that fast that quickly after having a season like he did last year? What the hell changed that quickly over the offseason that he's just a shell of what he was even a year ago. It's truly bizarre. 

[Ewitkows1]

The back issues are going to sap all of your power, I wish they would have shut him down right before the ASB and given him 10 to 12 days to rest up. 

[dlk9s]

 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

If there's one spot in the organization where the Brewers are thin, it's starting pitching that's close to major league ready.  Crow has been mentioned but I don't think the ceiling for a 5'10" guy who doesn't throw all that hard is very exciting.  I get the Brewers not wanting to give up Henderson but what about Gasser?

Why is the fit between Mize and the Brewers imperfect?  Mize WAR this season is 2.9, a tick behind Skubal's 3.0 and sitting on 86 innings, he's still roughly 70 innings short of what he logged in 25 in regular season and playoffs combined.  His recent outings have been fine as well.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

It always made more sense for the Dodgers to pay what ever it costs than the Brewers. The Dodgers have a lot of money going to aging players they'll have to deal with soon. They'll likely be doing so in a system less favorable to high payroll teams going forward. They're trying to win three consecutive WS before the proverbial poop hits the fan. The brewers are on the other side of things. Their window is just starting to open. They have a crap load of talent just starting to hit their prime and more coming up in the next year or so. 

Having said all that I'm not sure it changes out chances all that much. It was always going to take a hot streak and some luck. That hasn't changed.