Pirates (Jones) vs Brewers (Henderson): 8/4/26, 6:40pm

[Outlander]

A 3 seed isn't necessarily bad if Dodgers are the 1. On the other hand getting the 2 seed and the bye isn't all that great if Dodgers are the 3 like the Phillies found out last year. Keep on grinding for the 1 seed, still best path to the World Series and hoping somebody takes out the Dodgers prior to the NLCS.

[Brian]

12 hours ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

Good start Henderson.  Let’s go offense, how about an early lead for a change?

caleb Durbin just hit a grand slam for Boston, continues to be red hot 

Caleb Durbin Recent Stats Breakdown (Last ~30 Games / 104 AB)

• Batting Average: .288

• Hits: 30

• Home Runs: 5

• Runs Batted In: 15

• On-Base Percentage (OBP): .393

• Slugging Percentage (SLG): .462

• OPS: .796
• 

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, jason21nl said:

It’s unbelievable how Yelich keeps getting penciled in to the DH spot.   I can’t stand Sanchez but he needs to be the DH.   This is bleeping ridiculous 

Yelich may suck, but Sanchez isn't the answer either. At least not against RHP. 

[adambr2]

6 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

Yelich may suck, but Sanchez isn't the answer either. At least not against RHP. 

Vaughn to me is pretty clearly the answer, at least for now. He is hitting just as well as he did for us last year and gets on base. An .874 OPS overall should be in the lineup most days. He is obviously better against LHP, but he is not a liability against RHP.

I'm not saying he needs to play every single day but there is no case for Yelich getting more ABs than Vaughn. 

This also keeps Bauers at 1B or DH and strengthens our outfield defense.

[Brian]

9 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

Yelich may suck, but Sanchez isn't the answer either. At least not against RHP. 

Did you know the two current oldest Brewers are: 

 

Christian Yelich 34  Born on December 5, 1991 

Gary Sanchez  33 Born on December 2, 1992 

 

Go Figure

[TURBO]

7 hours ago, baseball101 said:

How were you feeling about Ortiz two months ago? 

Why does that matter?

The guy has stepped up and become one of our best hitters.

[adambr2]

9 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Oops, I was thinking the score last night was 4-2. But, 9 runs or 10 runs the point is the same.

This was not intended to be anything other than using the last few games to illustrate how the Brewers success is based on exceptional run prevention and average offense. Many teams scoring just 10 runs in 4 games would be lucky to win 1, but the Brewers won 2. 
 

Are you cherry picking by only mentioning the prior 3 games instead of the prior 4 (which would include a shutout)? 😀

It’s getting past my bedtime. So, you and your gang of friends can pound away but I won’t be responding any more tonight. 

You missed my point. Yes, I was in fact cherry picking as well, to show you how easy it is to manipulate a small sample size of games to paint a narrative. Not to say that the Brewer offense is amazing.

You are well within your rights to your opinions and counterpoints. I don’t know why it needs to come with a dose of playing the victim or why you would feel attacked, though, when others counter your own points that yes, you have done this before.

Nobody is celebrating a division title on August 5th. Everyone is well aware that if you simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times, the Cubs will win the division in a handful of those simulations. I don’t know what else you want to say about it. When people speak of the postseason, everyone is operating within the framework of what is more likely at this point in time. At this point in time, it is more likely than not that the Brewers will win the NL Central. 

They have also not given you historical reasons to think they will blow it. They won the division the last 4 out of 5 seasons. It’s not like they blew a 6 game lead last year and we are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

[RightFieldCoder]

[willie key]

31 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

You missed my point. Yes, I was in fact cherry picking as well, to show you how easy it is to manipulate a small sample size of games to paint a narrative. Not to say that the Brewer offense is amazing.

You are well within your rights to your opinions and counterpoints. I don’t know why it needs to come with a dose of playing the victim or why you would feel attacked, though, when others counter your own points that yes, you have done this before.

Nobody is celebrating a division title on August 5th. Everyone is well aware that if you simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times, the Cubs will win the division in a handful of those simulations. I don’t know what else you want to say about it. When people speak of the postseason, everyone is operating within the framework of what is more likely at this point in time. At this point in time, it is more likely than not that the Brewers will win the NL Central. 

They have also not given you historical reasons to think they will blow it. They won the division the last 4 out of 5 seasons. It’s not like they blew a 6 game lead last year and we are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

Their pitching is good enough that they should hold the lead.    IMO 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers have the best record IN THE LEAGUE....not just in their division - the entire damn league.  But just because if the Cubs go on a week-long winning streak at the same time the Brewers lose 6 straight they will tie them in the standings, people are once again freaking out about not gaining more ground to them because the Brewers arent scoring 8 runs a game and winning by 6 every night.

 

I believe the Cubs trail the Brewers by the exact same amount of games in the loss column as they did at the AS break 3 weeks ago.  Around 17-18 games played, zero ground made up. Until the Cubs actually do win the division, or win a playoff series against this Brewers team, we should revel in them being this division's 2nd fiddle and mock them for not being good enough, not freak out every time they win a game regardless of what the Brewers do on that particular day.  This Brewers team shows no signs of winning fewer than 95 games this season since that would be them going just 0.500 the rest of the way, meaning the Cubs would need to finish 30-18 to just tie them in the standings.  

[willie key]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Brewers have the best record IN THE LEAGUE....not just in their division - the entire damn league.  But just because if the Cubs go on a week-long winning streak at the same time the Brewers lose 6 straight they will tie them in the standings, people are once again freaking out about not gaining more ground to them because the Brewers arent scoring 8 runs a game and winning by 6 every night.

 

I believe the Cubs trail the Brewers by the exact same amount of games in the loss column as they did at the AS break 3 weeks ago.  Around 17-18 games played, zero ground made up. Until the Cubs actually do win the division, or win a playoff series against this Brewers team, we should revel in them being this division's 2nd fiddle and mock them for not being good enough, not freak out every time they win a game regardless of what the Brewers do on that particular day.  This Brewers team shows no signs of winning fewer than 95 games this season since that would be them going just 0.500 the rest of the way, meaning the Cubs would need to finish 30-18 to just tie them in the standings.  

The cubs are better than I thought a few weeks ago.   And they have added to their major weakness.   I thought the brewers were going to roll this division a while back

Now I’m not so sure

[adambr2]

39 minutes ago, willie key said:

The cubs are better than I thought a few weeks ago.   And they have added to their major weakness.   I thought the brewers were going to roll this division a while back

Now I’m not so sure

The Brewers are on pace for 100 wins. If you don’t really believe they are a 100 win team, that’s fine. If they win 95 games, that means going just 25-24 the rest of the season. The Cubs would have to go 30-18 the rest of the way, which would be a 101+ win pace for a full season. Possible? Sure. Worth worrying about? Not really, if it occurs then things we don’t know about yet clearly went wrong these last two months. 

IMO, adding Henderson to the rotation around the AS break, getting a healthy Harrison back in the rotation (he hasn’t pitched effectively since June), and replacing Sproat with May is more impactful than any moves the Cubs have made. 

[Trail]

This whole discussion points to the fact that we are just a little bit spoiled. Myself included. Thank you to Marc A and the staff he has put together for spoiling us!

[tmwiese55]

5 hours ago, Outlander said:

A 3 seed isn't necessarily bad if Dodgers are the 1. On the other hand getting the 2 seed and the bye isn't all that great if Dodgers are the 3 like the Phillies found out last year. Keep on grinding for the 1 seed, still best path to the World Series and hoping somebody takes out the Dodgers prior to the NLCS.

I've been thinking for a while that 2 seed is the best.  I'd much rather play ATL or whoever gets the last WC than Phi/Cubs who are very likely going to be the 4/5 seeds.    Obviously top 2 is wanted for the bye.  Sure you'd theoretically lose the home field vs LAD but no matter what you're a huge dog vs them and hoping for an upset before us. If that upset happens you still get home field.   I'd trade the risk of one less home gave in the NLCS in order to play Braves/Pirates/Pads/AZ rather than Cubs/Philly.

So its been an annoying last two days of Dodgers losing to Cubs for me

[adambr2]

58 minutes ago, Trail said:

This whole discussion points to the fact that we are just a little bit spoiled. Myself included. Thank you to Marc A and the staff he has put together for spoiling us!

It’s weird to think that 2016 was the last year that I went into Brewer season with no expectations of any kind. That used to be just the default every season. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Trail said:

This whole discussion points to the fact that we are just a little bit spoiled. Myself included. Thank you to Marc A and the staff he has put together for spoiling us!

A bit? Where this organization sits considering the size of the Milwaukee market, the overall strength of the farm system, the personnel decisions & ability to get production out of people where others couldn't............yep, we're extremely fortunate.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

 

So its been an annoying last two days of Dodgers losing to Cubs for me

Yes. But then again I enjoy seeing them lose even if they're in fourth place, so..........

[BruisedCrew]

4 hours ago, adambr2 said:

You missed my point. Yes, I was in fact cherry picking as well, to show you how easy it is to manipulate a small sample size of games to paint a narrative. Not to say that the Brewer offense is amazing.

You are well within your rights to your opinions and counterpoints. I don’t know why it needs to come with a dose of playing the victim or why you would feel attacked, though, when others counter your own points that yes, you have done this before.

Nobody is celebrating a division title on August 5th. Everyone is well aware that if you simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times, the Cubs will win the division in a handful of those simulations. I don’t know what else you want to say about it. When people speak of the postseason, everyone is operating within the framework of what is more likely at this point in time. At this point in time, it is more likely than not that the Brewers will win the NL Central. 

They have also not given you historical reasons to think they will blow it. They won the division the last 4 out of 5 seasons. It’s not like they blew a 6 game lead last year and we are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

I might have missed your point, but you definitely missed mine, so I guess we're even on that point.

I have never used 3 or 4 games to draw a general conclusion. But I think using the most recent 40-45 games (over a third of the games to date and a quarter of a full season) is quite different. I have explained exactly what data I'm using and why I think it's relevant. You can disagree with the conclusion without considering it dishonest or duplicitous. My guess is that if one of your favored compatriots had presented the exact same analysis the reaction would have been quite different.

My dose of feeling like a victim comes from the poster you are defending specifically saying that he is reacting to the messenger and not the message. 

I freely admit (without apology) that some of my posts can be more negative than some people would like. And when I really get upset I will say things that are clearly pessimistic. And, if that causes someone to reject anything I say that is their right. But some of the criticisms are over the top hyperbolic.

I reviewed all of my comments from last August through the end of the season and it isn't even close to true that "anytime in the last two months of the season that the Brewers had a bad game or two that (I) would say that that they are reverting back to who they were early in the season which is who they are". 

After the 14 game winning streak ended I did occasionally make some comments about the offense struggling for the last few games or week. I didn't see any that said that they were reverting to early season form. But, now looking back, comments that the offense was struggling seem to have been accurate. When the 14 game winning streak ended the Brewers had a record of 78-44 and their average RPG was 5.21. For the rest of the season their record was 19-21 with 4.25 RPG, bringing the final season RPG to 4.98.

And I did express concerns that if the offense didn't perk up the team would have trouble against the better pitching they would be facing in the playoffs. We saw how that turned out, 

On the projections, I understand that the Brewers winning the division is more likely than not. But the Cubs would win a lot more than a "handful", of 10,000 simulations, unless you consider 1500 to 2000 a handful.

And the history of winning 4 of the last 5 (80%) of the division titles seems largely irrelevant to me. i see each season as a generally independent event because of how different teams can be. This year's Brewers team with 3 players 22 years old or younger in the starting lineup and an especially young and inexperienced SP staff, almost all of whom are on innings management, is quite different that other recent teams.

So,  if you or others choose to interpret my refusal to take things for granted as "panic" or "expecting the worst" that's your right. i am not going to change my opinions and I will expect the Pavlovian responses.

[BruisedCrew]

13 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I’m not really sure any of these are comparable.

8/4/22 they were tied for the division lead

8/4/14 they had a one game division lead 

8/4/07 they had a one game division lead 

No two seasons are going to be identical, but all of those seasons illustrate the general concept that leads of various sizes can disappear fairly quickly. There is no special significance to August 4, except that it was yesterday.

Choosing that date to make a point sounds to me like "cherry picking" For example, in 2022 the Brewers had a 4 game division lead on July 30 but by August 4, after 4 straight losses (and a trade deadline to forget) the lead was completely gone and the Brewers never led again. By the end of August they were  6 games out of first place and failed to get even a wild card berth.

I'm not going to recite the details of all of the other examples of the Brewers losing big leads because that's been done before. But I will mention 1982, which is fondly remembered as the year the Brewers went to the World Series. But, for people old enough to have lived through it,  they will remember not so fondly the anxiety of the last month of the season. On August 28 (which happens to be my wedding day) the Brewers had a 6.5 game lead over the Red Sox and a 7 game lead over the Orioles. A few days later Rollie Fingers got hurt, the Brewers lost a few heartbreakers in the late innings, the Orioles got hot, and the lead was down to 1.5 games by September 14. The Brewers then built the lead back to 4 games with 5 games to play, but the race still came down to nail biting final innings on the last day.

[adambr2]

17 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

 My guess is that if one of your favored compatriots had presented the exact same analysis the reaction would have been quite different.

My dose of feeling like a victim comes from the poster you are defending specifically saying that he is reacting to the messenger and not the message.

No clue why you feel this way. I actually don’t have any personal affiliations here that extend beyond this forum with anyone or even privately message anyone beyond the rarest of occasions. I definitely don’t have any “favored compatriots” 

I have a long enough posting history here where I think just about every longtime poster here will tell you I have both agreed with them and disagreed with them on more than one occasion and I have no reservations about expressing it without any bias.

[BruisedCrew]

12 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

............And the most comprehensive sample---over the last 113 games---puts them fifth in MLB in runs scored.

.

We'll have to agree to disagree about what is a more relevant sample when you take into account how much teams can change over the course of the season. The Brewers lineup the last two months is significantly different than the one they had  in April. 

We could discuss the relevance of the Brewers 5.33 RPG in March/April and why it is higher than what they've produced since then, even including the first 10 games in June that produced both a lot of runs scored and a lot of runs allowed.

BTW, when I have posted about these things I only refer to the Brewers rank among NL teams instead of MLB.I think that is more relevant because the NL teams are the ones the Brewers compete with for playoff spots and seeding. Most of the games played are intraleague.

When it comes to RPG this year it doesn't really matter because the top 7 scoring teams are all in the NL

 

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

No two seasons are going to be identical, but all of those seasons illustrate the general concept that leads of various sizes can disappear fairly quickly. There is no special significance to August 4, except that it was yesterday.

Choosing that date to make a point sounds to me like "cherry picking" For example, in 2022 the Brewers had a 4 game division lead on July 30 but by August 4, after 4 straight losses (and a trade deadline to forget) the lead was completely gone and the Brewers never led again. By the end of August they were  6 games out of first place and failed to get even a wild card berth.

I'm not going to recite the details of all of the other examples of the Brewers losing big leads because that's been done before. But I will mention 1982, which is fondly remembered as the year the Brewers went to the World Series. But, for people old enough to have lived through it,  they will remember not so fondly the anxiety of the last month of the season. On August 28 (which happens to be my wedding day) the Brewers had a 6.5 game lead over the Red Sox and a 7 game lead over the Orioles. A few days later Rollie Fingers got hurt, the Brewers lost a few heartbreakers in the late innings, the Orioles got hot, and the lead was down to 1.5 games by September 14. The Brewers then built the lead back to 4 games with 5 games to play, but the race still came down to nail biting final innings on the last day.

The cognitive dissonance to say this "And the history of winning 4 of the last 5 (80%) of the division titles seems largely irrelevant to me. i see each season as a generally independent event because of how different teams can be." and then one comment later talk about home different teams in the past have blown leads is astounding. Those different teams blowing leads in the past shouldn't matter because each season is an independent event by your own words...or do you just say whatever fits your preconceived bias even if there's not logical consistency?

[BruisedCrew]

21 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

The cognitive dissonance to say this "And the history of winning 4 of the last 5 (80%) of the division titles seems largely irrelevant to me. i see each season as a generally independent event because of how different teams can be." and then one comment later talk about home different teams in the past have blown leads is astounding. Those different teams blowing leads in the past shouldn't matter because each season is an independent event by your own words...or do you just say whatever fits your preconceived bias even if there's not logical consistency?

I don’t see it as inconsistent at all.

From a fan’s perspective, past experiences of seeing a team blow (or almost blow).a large lead creates a memory and knowledge of what can happen. It would likely be even worse if your favorite team has gone through that experience in a recent year (or 44 years ago).

I should add that each year is also different because the chasing teams are different. Big leads are usually lost because of a combination of the leading team fading and a trailing team putting together an unexpected stretch of winning.
 

Like the 2021 Cardinals, a team that played around .500 for most of the season, suddenly winning 17 games in a row to come from nowhere to claim a wild card spot from some team (I don’t remember who) whose fans probably thought their team was a lock to get in. 

[82brewcrew82]

16 hours ago, baseball101 said:

Game thread 8/1//2026. “Bench Chourio he’s mentally done”. 
 

Explain the context.

You literally quoted the contex,  Good lord.