Cubs or Padres? Why?

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

“Please not the Cubs because it would be so awful to be eliminated by them” is the baseball equivalent of “I’m never going to ask her out because what if she turns me down?”

I strongly disagree with this analogy. 

That might make sense if someone said “I’d rather the Brewers not make the playoffs than have to face the Cubs because losing to them would be so awful”. 

But because the Brewers have essentially owned the Cubs since Game 163 in 2018, beating them again doesn’t carry any special weight. Losing to them and having them celebrate on the home field with 10,000 fans singing “Go Cubs Go” would be hard to take  

I think analysis trying to choose a preferred opponent in a short series is generally working in a small range of difference, except when you’re talking about a proven, established team loaded with all stars and future Hall of Famers  like the Dodgers.

Forfeiting even a portion of the home crowd advantage is something I would like to avoid.I also don’t know any Padres fans so a loss to them would not involve any trash talking.

Whenever someone refers to “fearing“ the Cubs or being “scared“ of them, I think they are missing the point.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Run differential, run differential, run differential.

Yes, the Padres have a great bullpen. It's really, really hard to win games that way. We've seen this with the Brewers before. When a team has a hard time scoring runs, their path to victory basically depends on shutting down the opponents for 9 innings. The Brewers have the second-best offense in baseball by RS. I know San Diego has been hot lately, and their offense has been especially good. But I'll go with the body of work and rely on my memories of Josh Hader struggling to close down multiple elimination games to say they're a better matchup.

I really don't think a team has bullpenned their way to success since the 2014 and 2015 Royals. I guess the 2018 Brewers qualify too. It's just really hard to do. Especially when you're basically counting on your  good but not great starters to go two times through the order clean in the highest pressure situations possible.

[homer]

Bring on the Cubs. It would be so nice to beat them again.

[Playing Catch]

So long as the Brewers avoid allowing big innings from the opposing offense, I don't think it matters much. Get ahead early in a low-scoring Padres game, or go-ahead late against a shaky Cubs 'pen. Either way, just keep the games close, and I believe in the Brewers ability to put key runs across in key situations.

Of all the tactical matchups, I fear the Cubs defense against the Brewers offense the most.

But seriously, if there is a fear-factor in any of this, it is in the minds of opposition pitchers. Any inning where a pitcher is at the 25 pitch mark (for an inning) is a serious red-zone against this Brewers team because of their ability to keep the line moving. And with excellent home plate umpires and ABS, this fear is even more distinct. Throw a fastball strike? Opposite-field single. Throw off-speed strike? A ripped double pulled down the line, or a bloop double the other way. Throw a ball? It's taken for a ball. They have no quarter. And that's with nobody on base or threatening to bunt.

This offense reminds me of the Dick Bennett Badger defenses. Pitchers will need to be really really mentally tough to face this lineup in the heat of the playoffs without giving in, or making a mistake.

[Opening Day]

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

“Please not the Cubs because it would be so awful to be eliminated by them” is the baseball equivalent of “I’m never going to ask her out because what if she turns me down?”

In this case it's would you rather ask to date girl A or girl B? Both are equal on paper (record).  If there is an issue with girl A, she's going to embarrass you and come to your house (AmFam) 7 times a year, get drunk, and remind you of your embarrassment.  If girl B turns you down, you can move on to the next one in relative peace.

 

If you are smooth enough(play well) you can get either (win series).  If you aren't (play poorly), you will get turned down by both (lose series).

It wouldn't be as though you get nothing because you are too shy (your analogy).  You are taking your shot either way 

Obviously, the flipside is eliminating the Cubs twice in a row would be extra sweet.  But if they lose to the Padres, I would enjoy watching that too.

[willie key]

The only reason I don’t like playing the cubs is they have seen our pitchers a lot more than other teams.    And they e actually hit out really good pitchers like Miz and megill pretty well.     Plus having 50% cubs fans for a home game sucks 

[adambr2]

7 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I strongly disagree with this analogy. 

That might make sense if someone said “I’d rather the Brewers not make the playoffs than have to face the Cubs because losing to them would be so awful”. 

But because the Brewers have essentially owned the Cubs since Game 163 in 2018, beating them again doesn’t carry any special weight. Losing to them and having them celebrate on the home field with 10,000 fans singing “Go Cubs Go” would be hard to take  

I think analysis trying to choose a preferred opponent in a short series is generally working in a small range of difference, except when you’re talking about a proven, established team loaded with all stars and future Hall of Famers  like the Dodgers.

Forfeiting even a portion of the home crowd advantage is something I would like to avoid.I also don’t know any Padres fans so a loss to them would not involve any trash talking.

Whenever someone refers to “fearing“ the Cubs or being “scared“ of them, I think they are missing the point.

 

4 hours ago, Opening Day said:

In this case it's would you rather ask to date girl A or girl B? Both are equal on paper (record).  If there is an issue with girl A, she's going to embarrass you and come to your house (AmFam) 7 times a year, get drunk, and remind you of your embarrassment.  If girl B turns you down, you can move on to the next one in relative peace.

 

If you are smooth enough(play well) you can get either (win series).  If you aren't (play poorly), you will get turned down by both (lose series).

It wouldn't be as though you get nothing because you are too shy (your analogy).  You are taking your shot either way 

Obviously, the flipside is eliminating the Cubs twice in a row would be extra sweet.  But if they lose to the Padres, I would enjoy watching that too.

Do you feel that we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against the Cubs, or the Padres?

To me, that is the only factor that matters.

[BruisedCrew]

7 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

 

Do you feel that we have a better chance of winning a 5 game series against the Cubs, or the Padres?

To me, that is the only factor that matters.

I think they’re basically the same. Both close to 50-50 with the Brewers being a slight favorite.

[Nola Beery]

The first baseball team I ever loved was the AAA Padres.  I lived in San Diego for first, second, and fifth grades.. (Navy doctor dad.) In fifth grade all my friends were big Padre fans, and we knew every player's name. I went to games at the old Westgate Ballpark. I listened to every game on the radio.

I have  moved on from those days, but I still have a place in my heart for those Padres, and for the city I lived in.

Plus I just don't like the ;)$&@/"! Cubs.

[Nola Beery]

37 minutes ago, willie key said:

The only reason I don’t like playing the cubs is they have seen our pitchers a lot more than other teams.    And they e actually hit out really good pitchers like Miz and megill pretty well.     Plus having 50% cubs fans for a home game sucks 

Good points.

[bm1090]

I think the Cubs are the clear answer. Padres have the pitching to keep our offense at bay. The Cubs do not. 

Their hitting might score more but the pitching is so bad it shouldn't matter. Of course they could beat us, but I think the Padres have WAY more paths to win. The only answer against the Cubs is that we don't want to lose to the Cubs, and I don't think that's a good answer.

[AKCheesehead]

Padres because I always root against the cubs no matter what. 

[ImissDougMelvin]

Cubs, though I hate the thought of them eliminating the Brewers, but i want NO part of the Padres with the way they are playing and that bullpen. Nope, no thanks.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

3 hours ago, bm1090 said:

I think the Cubs are the clear answer. Padres have the pitching to keep our offense at bay. The Cubs do not. 

Their hitting might score more but the pitching is so bad it shouldn't matter. Of course they could beat us, but I think the Padres have WAY more paths to win. The only answer against the Cubs is that we don't want to lose to the Cubs, and I don't think that's a good answer.

I disagree with you here. I actually think the Cubs have more ways to win. They can score more than the Padres, and they play great defense. The offense can score 6 or 3, and they're in it.

The Padres, OTOH, are built to win low-scoring, close games. If their bullpen or starters falter (and give up 3 or 4 runs combined) they are really going to struggle to beat you. If you score 6, they're more than likely toast. If you score 6 against the Cubs, PCA and Bregman might each hit two homers, and you lose anyway.

People freak out about bullpens, but really, who has won in October with that as the main strength since the 2014 and 2015 Royals? 

Give me San Diego all day, and that's not even considering the mental health factor.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

If the game is close after five I really like the Brewers chances versus the Cubs 

 

Sanzatela, Romero, Uribe, Hall/Ashby, Megill

 

I expect Hall/Ashby and Patrick to start game three of a series with the hope they go five combined.

[Just Some Guy]

On 9/28/2026 at 5:25 AM, BruisedCrew said:

Would the betting odds agree with the Brewers having a 70% chance of winning a 5 game series against either the Padres or Cubs. That seems pretty high to me. 

Yeah, I think those are too high.  I think our series lines would be maybe -170 (63% chance) over the Cubs and -140 (58% chance) over the Padres, something like that.

[Just Some Guy]

My two cents:  the Cubs, for sure.  Their pitchers have a season long, combined 6.0 fWAR, which ranks them #28 in the league.  They also gave up 231 HR's, the second most in baseball.  In the playoffs it's hard to face a team with pitching numbers that bad.

And maybe we don't need to overthink this:  in September the Cubs were 11-13, while the Padres were 18-6.  

So it's either the hot team with good pitching or the team that backed into the playoffs with the #28 pitching staff.  To me, an easy choice.

 

 

[Just Some Guy]

15 hours ago, willie key said:

Plus having 50% cubs fans for a home game sucks 

I was at games 1 and 2 last year (and will be again this year) and it didn't turn out to be that bad.  We feared it might be, but we outnumbered Cubs fans about as much as we do in reg season games at AmFam.

[adambr2]

16 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I think they’re basically the same. Both close to 50-50 with the Brewers being a slight favorite.

They are close enough in talent and record of course where I don’t have any real issue with this opinion. 

But - the Padres are red hot. They have won 17 out of 20. Facing a team peaking at the right time definitely scares me. 

I also have concerns facing a bullpen like theirs should we end up with a lot of close games, with a lineup like ours that is good but can also run hot and cold.

 

[Jimbo]

Padres.  Luis Rengifo is out for the season, so they don't scare me as much.

 

[BrewersAA]

I would rather face the cubs, and I’m not keen on being in a position to eat those words, but I think it’s a better match up. Obviously the results again both during the season show we should prefer the cubs. I think the brewers probably have a psychological edge on the cubs at this point as well. 
 

BUTTTT, I feel like this team does a great job of scoring runs late. Coming back and winning. Their run prevention keeps them in games. The Padres lock down the last 3 innings unlike any other team, so I don’t think it’s a good matchup for the crew

[sveumrules]

Fearsome Padres Pen
683 IP of 88 ERA- (7th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | +6.28 WPA (7th)

Brewers Pen (constantly mismanaged & overworked by Murphy per the IGTs)
640 IP of 82 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (4th) | +9.56 WPA (2nd)
 

[Underachiever]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Fearsome Padres Pen
683 IP of 88 ERA- (7th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | +6.28 WPA (7th)

Brewers Pen (constantly mismanaged & overworked by Murphy per the IGTs)
640 IP of 82 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (4th) | +9.56 WPA (2nd)
 

You forgot to call him "Pancakes". 

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Fearsome Padres Pen
683 IP of 88 ERA- (7th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | +6.28 WPA (7th)

Brewers Pen (constantly mismanaged & overworked by Murphy per the IGTs)
640 IP of 82 ERA- (3rd) | 88 FIP- (4th) | +9.56 WPA (2nd)
 

To be fair, the choice isn't would you rather face the Brewers pen or the Padres pen, but yes I think we forget that we are the best team in the league for a reason, and we're going to be better than most teams at most things.

[bm1090]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

They are close enough in talent and record of course where I don’t have any real issue with this opinion. 

But - the Padres are red hot. They have won 17 out of 20. Facing a team peaking at the right time definitely scares me. 

I also have concerns facing a bullpen like theirs should we end up with a lot of close games, with a lineup like ours that is good but can also run hot and cold.

 

Yep. And they averaged 5.6 runs per game in September. They're on fire. Their offense is hot and obviously they have the bullpen. Not like their top few starters are bad either.

41-18 since July 23rd. Give me the Cubs all day.