2026 Postseason Thread

[sveumrules]

The field is set and the 2026 Postseason starts tomorrow.

Some World Series Win Percents from various sources...

PECOTA
TBR (19.2%) MIL (18.5%) LAD (16.7%) CLE (11.5%)
NYY (5.9%) HOU (4.6%) BOS (3.7%) CHW (3.1%) 
ATL (4.9%) CHC (4.7%) SDP (4.2%) PHI (3.0%)

FanGraphs (Projections)
LAD (37.8%) MIL (11.5%) CLE (9.1%) TBR (8.3%)
NYY (6.6%) BOS (5.2%) HOU (3.4%) CHW (1.3%)
PHI (5.6%) CHC (4.7%) ATL (3.7%) SDP (2.7%)

FanGraphs (Season to Date)
MIL (23.7%) LAD (18.9%) TBR (11.1%) CLE (7.0%)
NYY (8.1%) BOS (5.7%) CHW (5.0%) HOU (2.6%)
CHC (7.0%) ATL (5.3%) SDP (3.4%) PHI (2.3%) 

Baseball Reference
MIL (18.6%) TBR (14.5%) LAD (12.4%) CLE (6.7%)
BOS (8.0%) NYY (6.9%) CHW (6.3%) HOU (2.4%)
CHC (11.1%) PHI (5.0%) SDP (4.7%) ATL (3.5%)

...think the FG Projections probably align the most with how baseball fans tend to think of the Dodgers relative to the rest of the field.

Put em all together and the Brewers win the World Series in something like 18.1% of simulated future realities.

I'll take those odds, don't really have any other choice. 

GO BREWERS !!

[Frisbee Slider]

What is FanGraphs looking at that simultaneously makes it an outlier and seemingly the closest to ‘reality’ ?

I can’t imagine what PECOTA sees in Tampa more than Milwaukee.

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What is FanGraphs looking at that simultaneously makes it an outlier and seemingly the closest to ‘reality’ ?

I can’t imagine what PECOTA sees in Tampa more than Milwaukee.

Guys like Ohtani (139 wRC+), Betts (114 wRC+), and Freeman (120 wRC+) had down years, but they have long track records of success so the projections are still buying in on them to positively regress to a 156, 123, and 126 wRC+ respectively.

On the flip side guys like Turang (126 wRC+ last two years), Bauers (148 wRC+ since 9/5/25), and Vaughn (138 wRC+ with MIL) have been ascendent, but also have large-ish samples of less encouraging results before that so are still being projected for regression to a 109, 123, and 108 wRC+ respectively.

Ultimately, I think it comes down to the FG projections heavily weighting the playing time towards star players for the postseason and the Dodgers have the most star players with long track records to support better projections.

On the PECOTA side all I can really think of is that even though the Rays have the hard draw on the AL East side of the bracket, it is still an easier draw than the slate of potential opponents the Brewers have to face. Would guess if it comes down to a MIL / TBR World Series that PECOTA would favor the Brewers, but they just get knocked out somewhere along the way beforehand in the simulations more often than the Rays do. 

[MadScientist]

51 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What is FanGraphs looking at that simultaneously makes it an outlier and seemingly the closest to ‘reality’ ?

I can’t imagine what PECOTA sees in Tampa more than Milwaukee.

My only guess is the PECOTA sees Tampa getting to the series much more frequently in their simulations than Milwaukee.  The AL is just weaker this year than the NL.  They also seem to weight teams with the bye much more heavily than others, so that pushes their ALCS simulation to have TB vs CLE, and Tampa is going to win most of those.

[HarveysWBs]

I think we're doing some big game hunting this year.

Brewers in six is the call.

[RobertCrawley]

When do we see the playoff roster?

[Team Canada]

The morning of the first game.

[BruisedCrew]

I note that every one of these projections gives the Cubs a higher chance of winning the World Series than the Padres  

There is obviously a significant difference of opinion between the projections and the posters on the board who feel that the Padres are clearly a more difficult opponent.

[long ball]

I think in general I feel better about this team going into the playoffs than I have most years. 2018 was probably the most optimistic due to MVP Yelich, how we chased down the cubs, game 163, returning to the playoffs for the first time in 7 years, and the Dodgers weren’t quite the dodgers yet. I’m generally pretty hopeful every time we make the playoffs so I feel a little extra optimism this year. 
 

on the AL side I am rooting for the White Sox but I don’t have much hope for them. So the Rays and Guardians are the other teams I’m pulling for. 

[sveumrules]

Of the 26 FanGraphs writers who made postseason predictions, 18 have the Dodgers and Brewers facing off in the NLCS (plus three more who have a Brewers / Braves NLCS).

Fourteen of the writers picked the Brewers to advance to the World Series (versus only seven for the Dodgers).

Brewers versus Rays got the most votes for the World Series match up with nine. No other match up got more than three votes (including three for Brewers vs Guardians, and two for Brewers vs Yankees).

Put it all together and ten writers picked the Brewers to win the whole dang enchilada, ahead of six picks for the Dodgers, and four for the Rays.  

[Playing Catch]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Of the 26 FanGraphs writers who made postseason predictions, 18 have the Dodgers and Brewers facing off in the NLCS (plus three more who have a Brewers / Braves NLCS).

Fourteen of the writers picked the Brewers to advance to the World Series (versus only seven for the Dodgers).

Brewers versus Rays got the most votes for the World Series match up with nine. No other match up got more than three votes (including three for Brewers vs Guardians, and two for Brewers vs Yankees).

Put it all together and ten writers picked the Brewers to win the whole dang enchilada, ahead of six picks for the Dodgers, and four for the Rays.  

Oh good, so at least if the Brewers lose 3 straight, we can still complain about how dumb Fangraphs is.

[Playing Catch]

I am still under the impression that rosters can be re-set after each round, correct? And that injured players can be immediately replaced, but only if they sit out the next round as well?

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I am still under the impression that rosters can be re-set after each round, correct? And that injured players can be immediately replaced, but only if they sit out the next round as well?

Correct.

[nate82]

The Athletic writers have the Brewers winning the NL and the Rays winning in the AL.  
 

A Brewers and Rays World Series would be fun!  Probably won’t get the highest ratings but still fun to watch. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7640352/2026/09/29/mlb-world-series-winner-2026-staff-early-predictions/?unlocked_article_code=1.E1E.pH6P.dDEI_VYWoxUj&source=user_shared_article&smid=ta-ios-share

[MrTPlush]

Glad we are getting picked, but I do think a lot of that has to do with no one wanting the Dodgers in the WS and the strong hatred fans have for them.

I would agree this is maybe one of the more optimistic years in recent memory. Probably since 2021.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, long ball said:

I think in general I feel better about this team going into the playoffs than I have most years. 2018 was probably the most optimistic due to MVP Yelich, how we chased down the cubs, game 163, returning to the playoffs for the first time in 7 years, and the Dodgers weren’t quite the dodgers yet. I’m generally pretty hopeful every time we make the playoffs so I feel a little extra optimism this year. 
 

on the AL side I am rooting for the White Sox but I don’t have much hope for them. So the Rays and Guardians are the other teams I’m pulling for. 

In 2018 it was hard not to be a little optimistic because of how the team had finished with Yelich leading the way. But I do remember being concerned about the lack of starting pitching. They were able to survive the division series in part because the Rockies, were even more drawn out because of having to play both a game 163 and then the wildcard game against the Cubs.

While the Brewers gave it a good shot that lack of pitching did finally become their undoing against the Dodgers. If they had beaten the Dodgers I think they would’ve been in trouble against the Red Sox who had a really strong team that year  

I think the most optimistic Ive been since 2011 was in 2021 because of the starting combination of Burns, Woodruff and Peralta backed up by a strong bullpen. But that was torpedoed by the offense going silent. That series against the Braves left a mark on me that was just reinforced by last year‘s NLCS.

I’m hoping that the offense can put up runs more consistently this year, but I have a feeling that if the Brewers get knocked out early, it’s going to be because of another one of those power outages.

[wiguy94]

I'm not sure the Dodgers odds should be as high as Fangraphs has them but I do think they are the clear on paper favorite to win the WS again. Nobody really compares to them on paper. Best postseason SP group, super deep RP group (and Edwin Diaz unfortunately looks back in form), super deep postseason lineup, and they have the most experience as well. 

Also feel like they have an easier path to the NLCS than the Brewers do as I think the Cubs and Padres are both better than the Braves and Phillies.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

 

[BruisedCrew]

Sometimes a veteran player who had a lackluster season will deliver the key blow in a playoff game. 

Enter Austin Riley. 

[markedman5]

Mattingly brings in his closer in the 7th…….the 7th went well…..the 8th did not 

 

[tmwiese55]

I actually liked the strategy and it made a lot of sense. Have your best guy in for their top of the order.  And yet it still didn't work out.   5 straight outs.  then an infield hit, a barely hbp, boom HR

[markedman5]

 

[willie key]

Thank god we got the bye

[Just Some Guy]

Excellent thread, thanks. 

Fantastic first game today, 7th and 8th inning lead changes; Braves win 5-3.