2022 Trade Market

[Underachiever]

What is everyone's hindsight take on how trading for Escobar worked out? I feel it was a C, maybe C-.

48 games, .2 WAR, .800 OPS. Some of that is caused by making him play 1st base, which I hated.

[wntrtxn21]

16 hours ago, titletownking said:

We get Donaldson from Yanks and Reynolds from Pirates, Yanks get Wong and Houser, Pirates get Huira,  Mitchell, Gleybar Torres and a higher ranked prospect from the yanks.

We get 2 middle of the order bats including extra years of service with Reynolds without throwing in a high end piece. The Yanks upgrade up the middle and the rotation. The Pirates get 2 higher potential play now with pieces and 2 prospects.

I like your thinking, but I don't think there is any way in the world Stearns would ever take on Donaldson and his $50M contract.  Donaldson would push the payroll above $150M and Reynolds would push it to approx. $160M. Plus I don't think the Pirates would want quite a bit more for Reynolds.  The SV are way too low. 

[wallus]

What do we think of buying low on Joey Gallo? He has struggled with the Yankees but it could just be the market as he is only 28.

[brewerfan82]

9 hours ago, wallus said:

What do we think of buying low on Joey Gallo? He has struggled with the Yankees but it could just be the market as he is only 28.

I know there will be a lot of people that dismiss this idea (strikes out too much, low batting average, we already have players like him, etc. etc.), but I would love him for the right price.

Since 2019, he has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP and 118 wRC+ vs LHP. Even in his bad year this year (where he's been awful against lefties) he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ vs RHP. Plus he's a good fielder, so even if he doesn't pick things up against lefties, you have some options for playing him instead of McCutchen or Renfroe vs righties and giving Yelich some additional time at DH.

That said, he does make $10M this year, but is a free agent next season, so MA would have to be willing to expand the payroll a little bit temporarily.

[wallus]

46 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I know there will be a lot of people that dismiss this idea (strikes out too much, low batting average, we already have players like him, etc. etc.), but I would love him for the right price.

Since 2019, he has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP and 118 wRC+ vs LHP. Even in his bad year this year (where he's been awful against lefties) he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ vs RHP. Plus he's a good fielder, so even if he doesn't pick things up against lefties, you have some options for playing him instead of McCutchen or Renfroe vs righties and giving Yelich some additional time at DH.

That said, he does make $10M this year, but is a free agent next season, so MA would have to be willing to expand the payroll a little bit temporarily.

My thoughts exactly. If you get him around the deadline, his salary is about half for the rest of the season and I can't imagine he will cost a lot to acquire.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

I know there will be a lot of people that dismiss this idea (strikes out too much, low batting average, we already have players like him, etc. etc.), but I would love him for the right price.

Since 2019, he has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP and 118 wRC+ vs LHP. Even in his bad year this year (where he's been awful against lefties) he's still putting up a 120 wRC+ vs RHP. Plus he's a good fielder, so even if he doesn't pick things up against lefties, you have some options for playing him instead of McCutchen or Renfroe vs righties and giving Yelich some additional time at DH.

That said, he does make $10M this year, but is a free agent next season, so MA would have to be willing to expand the payroll a little bit temporarily.

Count me in for either Bell or Gallo (or both?). Also worth noting that Gallo can play a fine Center Field as well....

[Outlander]

Agree that both Bell and Gallo should be targets at the deadline especially considering the production the Brewers are getting out of CF. Of course if the Yankees are willing to deal him at the deadline then Gallo probably isn't being very productive either.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

Agree that both Bell and Gallo should be targets at the deadline especially considering the production the Brewers are getting out of CF. Of course if the Yankees are willing to deal him at the deadline then Gallo probably isn't being very productive either.

The production in CF is fine especially as your 8th or 9th hitter.  I don't believe there is anyone out there that will significantly improve the production that the Brewers are currently getting in CF.  

I think the best the Brewers can do is add to the bench as the trade market looks rather weak.  Possibly improve the bench against RHP and LHP is really the only option out there.  Bell has started out hot but has cooled down a bit since his hot start as to be expected.  Bell or J.D. Martinez would be good adds to help secure some punch in the lineup.  I think Stearns would prefer Bell as he can play multiple positions 1B, DH and some OF.  

Actually I think Bell will be Stearns #1 target this trade deadline.  If Tellez cools off or is not as good against LHP as he has been Bell wouldn't be a bad add as he can platoon with both McCutchen and Tellez if needed and give Yelich a day off in the OF if needed also.  

I think Gray and a lottery ticket or even Hiura and a lottery ticket would be more than enough to get Bell from the Nationals.

[Outlander]

Unfortunately the production in CF is not fine but you may very well be correct that there will be nothing out there to significantly improve the situation.

[Brewcrew82]

With regard to CF, IF the Orioles were willing to talk about Mullins, I would be first in line if I was Stearns. Something like a Small, Mitchell/Frelick, and a lower-level lottery ticket might be enough to convince them to pull the trigger. 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

With regard to CF, IF the Orioles were willing to talk about Mullins, I would be first in line if I was Stearns. Something like a Small, Mitchell/Frelick, and a lower-level lottery ticket might be enough to convince them to pull the trigger. 

Not even close enough for Mullins.  You are about $40m short in surplus value for Mullins.  Lets say the values for Mitchell and Small are a more than what they are now but even with an increase there you are still about $20m short.  If it is $20m that needs to be filled then Frelick, Mitchell and Small would be the price for Mullins.  

I don't see that happening and I don't see the Orioles trading Mullins for anything less either.  It will cost a lot to get Mullins a lot more than what your trade is at right now.  

[wallus]

I don't see a Mullins trade for Small/Mitchell/Frelick because we will need cheap production of those guys moving forward. Mullins is a good player but will be entering Arbys next year and will get expensive quickly.

Maybe Baltimore would want something centered around Houser and some lower level prospects? That is doubtful but other than that I don't see a match here. Baltimore's payroll is so low so it wouldn't be a salary issue with him either.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not even close enough for Mullins.  You are about $40m short in surplus value for Mullins.  Lets say the values for Mitchell and Small are a more than what they are now but even with an increase there you are still about $20m short.  If it is $20m that needs to be filled then Frelick, Mitchell and Small would be the price for Mullins.  

I don't see that happening and I don't see the Orioles trading Mullins for anything less either.  It will cost a lot to get Mullins a lot more than what your trade is at right now.  

You may be right. However, I think Mullins is overvalued as he has only one season of elite production, and hasn't quite been at that level to this point this year. I would try to get it done without giving up Wiemer or Ashby and believe it can be done. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You may be right. However, I think Mullins is overvalued as he has only one season of elite production, and hasn't quite been at that level to this point this year. I would try to get it done without giving up Wiemer or Ashby and believe it can be done. 

I don't see why the Orioles would want to trade Mullins if his value is low.  It will cost a lot to get Mullins I just don't see the Orioles coming down from the price he was at before this season.  The premium for Mullins is going to be extremely high and I just don't see why the Brewers would want to pay for that.

[Brewcrew82]

How about Ramon Laureano? He’s literally returning from his 80 game suspension today, but would be eligible for the postseason unlike Severino because it carried over from last year. Good hitter and fielder. Young with multiple years of control. A’s are already in complete tear down mode so you would think they’d be more amenable to parting with him as they did Olson and Chapman. Also would probably cost a little less in prospect capital than Mullins. Put me down. 

 

[jay87shot]

I forgot about Lauerano, he would be ok but I would be looking more for a middle of the order run producer and he doesn't fit the bill. However I would keep him in mind because he could still be a more affordable upgrade if Mullins is to expensive.

Benitendi doesn't move the needle a ton, he is having a good year but he isn't a great CF, left field good but I would shift the outfield for him. He is the same boat as Lauerano, he would be a solid upgrade but doesn't fit the bill perfectly. 

I would say no to Gallo, the offensive problem is that we are to streaky a player like him only makes it worse.

What about Eric Hosmer? Say we can offload Cain in a deal and get San Diego to eat a couple million a year in future years. After this year he only make 14 a year and last year they were willing to include Hassell to dump him. He has been tremendous this year. If you look at his career he goes good year, bad year, good year, bad year. Also Hosmer would likely get a power boost going from SD and KC pitcher parks to our hitters park.

Maybe trade Cain and Huira for Hosmer (SDP pay 10 million of remaining contract) and a young reliever like Steven Wilson. I would expect in a month or two this would make more sense when Cain will be hitting over .200 and Hosmer will be under .300.

KC, Oak, Cubs, Pirates have a bunch of relief arms that we should be interested in Josh Staumont would probably top my list.

My wish list on bats would be Mullins, JD Martinez, Bell, Hosmer, Reynolds, Benintendi, Laureano, and maybe Nelson Cruz.

[jay87shot]

Gauging a Mullins trade is tough, I never like the websites that give players and prospects WAR values to determine value. I try and look at similar past trades and see value that way. Actually our trade for Yelich seems to be the best I can come up with. We gave up a top 30 prospect (Brinson), 2 borderline top 100 (Harrison, Diaz) and a lower ranked organizational prospect (Yamamoto). Part of the Yelich appeal was his team friendly contract which probably added some value. 

A similar deal would likely be Ashby, Weimer, or Frelich, and two of Black, Small, Turang, Mitchell, Black, Quero, H Perez, Chourio, Valerio, plus a potential throw in.

I'd say they would want, Ashby, Turang, and Black which seems like a lot to give up. Unless they take the Indians approach on the Mike Clevinger trade and go for quantity over quality say Huira, Taylor, Small, Turang, and Antione Kelly

[sveumrules]

Don’t think Mullins is close to 2018 Yelich value wise.

Christian posted 17.5 WAR and a 121 OPS+ over 2,812 PAs with the Marlins. He had four full seasons of All Star level production.

Mullins has posted 6.8 WAR and a 113 OPS+ in his career so far. Sure, his 2021 was better than anything Yelich did with the Marlins, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty how real/sustainable that level of production is for him.

If he picks it up some between now & the deadline, maybe he gets dealt for a similar haul, but I think BAL would prefer to keep him to build around with some of their big prospects finally hitting MLB this year.

Cedric is also a year older & has one fewer year of team control than Yelich did when dealt.

[nate82]

For Mullins it is tricky as I believe you will have to blow the Orioles away with a deal to get him.  Which means you are going to have to give up at least what was given up for Yelich.  I don’t believe Mullins is worth that.

I still think smaller trades will be the way to go adding someone like Bell or J.D. Martinez.  Another bullpen arm is going to be needed also.

I believe CF is fine with Taylor and Cain.  I think DH and the bullpen are more pressing needs right now.  Bell would fit perfectly as a platoon partner for Tellez and McCutchen.  

[jay87shot]

This one might be a little out there and the Red Sox are playing well but what if we got JD Martinez and Xander Bogeartz. Then trade Wong say to the Angels for a couple prospects or somewhere else for a bullpen arm.

Cain, Frelich, Small for Martinez and Bouggy.  Urias shifts to 2nd Bogeartz to 3rd

Wong for 2 mid-tier prospects

Get a decent experienced bullpen arm or 2 on the cheap.

We would have Turang to take over 2nd next year and still have a few good OF prospects to potentially fill CF. 

Urias, Yeli, JD, Bogeartz, Rowdy, Renfrow, Adames, Narvaez, CF  would be an amazing lineup

 

 

 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, jay87shot said:

This one might be a little out there and the Red Sox are playing well but what if we got JD Martinez and Xander Bogeartz. Then trade Wong say to the Angels for a couple prospects or somewhere else for a bullpen arm.

Cain, Frelich, Small for Martinez and Bouggy.  Urias shifts to 2nd Bogeartz to 3rd

Wong for 2 mid-tier prospects

Get a decent experienced bullpen arm or 2 on the cheap.

We would have Turang to take over 2nd next year and still have a few good OF prospects to potentially fill CF. 

Urias, Yeli, JD, Bogeartz, Rowdy, Renfrow, Adames, Narvaez, CF  would be an amazing lineup

 

 

 

Not sure why the Red Sox would trade Bogaerts with Martinez.  Makes no sense for them to package Bogaerts with Martinez and taking back Cain would not be something the Red Sox would want to bring back.  Frelick and Small is not even close to being enough for Bogaerts.  

[Brewcrew82]

53 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not sure why the Red Sox would trade Bogaerts with Martinez.  Makes no sense for them to package Bogaerts with Martinez and taking back Cain would not be something the Red Sox would want to bring back.  Frelick and Small is not even close to being enough for Bogaerts.  

Actually, the Bogaerts part is pretty fair, considering Bogaerts is an impending free agent. You would be looking at something similar to what the Orioles got for Manny Machado, who was also a star infielder in his walk year. Frelick is a top 100 prospect and Small is right there, too. Meanwhile, the Dodgers ended up parting with one lower-end top 100 prospect (Yusniel Diaz) and a few other guys towards the bottom of their Top 30 prospect list. Seems quite similar to me. I don't think I would go after Bogaerts, though, considering our right-side of the infield is perhaps the strongest part of our team aside from our pitching. CF is much more of a need, in my opinion. 

[sveumrules]

Yeah, I think something like Frelick & Small at least gets you in the convo for half a season Xander. Might not be the winning bid, but its a legit offer.

But then throw JDM in on top of that for LoCain's dead money and the deal kind of falls apart.

[jay87shot]

Are there any potential young bullpen arms that we could get, it seems likely Hader will get traded in the offseason with 1 year left. In all likelihood we probably acquire a couple cheap vets with expiring deals that don't cost much. However, it would be nice to find someone to pair with Williams for a few years, Maybe Gott can be that guy, but my confidence in him is still a bit shaky. 

Here is a list of controllable guys who I could concievable being traded (I am sure there are more)

Jorge Lopez, Dillon Tate, David Bednar, Wil Crowe, Scott Barlow, Josh Staumont, Gregory Soto, Sam Hentges, Trevor Stehan, Zach Jackson, Dany Jimenez, and AJ Puk. There are probably a whole bunch if we were to trade a starter for a bat and an extra pen arm but that seems less likely with Peralta out for now. Some like David Bednar are probably to expensive and there are a few on that list I know nothing about. I also like Diego Castillo on the M's but his current ERA of over 8 makes finding a value really tough.

What if we got Gregory Soto for Garrett Mitchell (actually there are a ton of interesting trades we could make to a team like Detriot) and then a cheaper option like Daniel Bard for a lower level prospect.

[Outlander]

It's probably a separate thread but I doubt Hader gets traded. As long as the Brewers are contenders, which appears likely next year, there isn't much reason to trade Hader. Unlikely teams give the Brewers a large enough haul for one year to make it worth it for the Brewers.