2022 Trade Market

[wallus]

17 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don't believe the Pirates would accept that.  The Brewers will have to pay a premium to get Reynolds being in the same division as the Pirates.  It is stupid but that is how teams work only way to change this is to somehow get the GM that gave up Aramis Ramirez for nothing to the Cubs.  

I think two of Wiemer, Frelick, Valerio, Turang or Black and one of Hedbert Perez, Gray, Mendez or Small along with a lottery ticket is closer to what the Pirates will be looking for.  It is going to cost a ton to get Reynolds.  

So basically what I said plus a lottery ticket?

I would like to get Reynolds but he has been good not great this year and is graded negatively defensively. Stearns has shown interest so hopefully he has laid the groundwork like he has mentioned. 

The good news is that he is controlled through 2026 so it would fit our "controllable talent" mantra. His salary is also set at 6.750 million next year which we should be able to afford.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

So basically what I said plus a lottery ticket?

hah I misread what you posted so yeah just add the lottery ticket and it would be close to what it would cost.  Though I think that maybe light especially for a divisional trade.  The trade offer is fair but I think the Pirates will want more added onto the deal because of divisional trade.   

[brewmann04]

I just hope that David is working the phones and pulls off something before the Cards do.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I just hope that David is working the phones and pulls off something before the Cards do.

Is the trade deadline a race now?

[brewmann04]

Not a race just acting first to get the guy they want and can put this team over the top

[Robocaller]

Looks like getting a starting pitcher might be a good idea.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

Not a race just acting first to get the guy they want and can put this team over the top

There's no need whatsoever to "act first". What would be the point of that? The Cardinals will likely make moves. So will the Brewers. Whichever team makes a move first is utterly inconsequential. 

[brewerfan82]

I think you're slightly misunderstanding what he's saying. I believe he's saying if there's a specific player you want, go get him now rather than sitting on your heels and risking another team getting him first. Additionally, as we saw with CC Sabathia, there can definitely be an advantage in improving your roster a little earlier, and for more games, than waiting til the deadline.

That said, you're probably going to pay more to get a player sooner than later as well. And theoretically, if another team gets a player before you, you'd think the selling team would have done their research and given you an opportunity to outbid for the player as well. The caveat being if you know your need now and by waiting another team has an injury creating the same need, in which case you actually are creating more competition for the same player by waiting.

Regardless, I don't think the premise is totally misguided.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

28 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I think you're slightly misunderstanding what he's saying. I believe he's saying if there's a specific player you want, go get him now rather than sitting on your heels and risking another team getting him first. Additionally, as we saw with CC Sabathia, there can definitely be an advantage in improving your roster a little earlier, and for more games, than waiting til the deadline.

That said, you're probably going to pay more to get a player sooner than later as well. And theoretically, if another team gets a player before you, you'd think the selling team would have done their research and given you an opportunity to outbid for the player as well. The caveat being if you know your need now and by waiting another team has an injury creating the same need, in which case you actually are creating more competition for the same player by waiting.

Regardless, I don't think the premise is totally misguided.

That is under the assumption that the Cardinals specifically (as the OP named them) are after the same trade pieces that the Brewers are. Now there might be a little need overlap between the two teams, but I'm not sure if this is necessarily a case of each team targeting the same specific names. Most of the media out there lists SS and starting pitching as the Cardinals two biggest needs, and while the Brewers have suffered some injuries in the rotation, I don't know if I would consider either of those spots huge upgrade needs for the Brewers.

[brewers888]

I am fairly certain that we will trade for bullpen reinforcements as we seem to do each deadline. Lets hope these acquisitions fare better than Norris and Curtis did last season.

[nate82]

I think the Yankees are going to end up with Reynolds.  The Yankees are desperate for OF help with Gallo and Hicks being just a bit better than Cain.  The Yankees also have the prospects to be able to beat out every team and do it very easily.

I think something like Volpe, Dominguez and Medina gets it done if the Yankees want Reynolds now.  I don't see the Brewers being able to beat the Yankees offer unless they do Chourio, Wiemer and Small which is just way too much for one player and then I am not even sure the Pirates would take that over what the Yankees are offering.  Volpe is a top 10 prospect while Dominguez is in the 50-90 range and he has been ranked higher in the past.  

It would be extremely tough for the Brewers to top a Yankees offer for Reynolds especially with it being a divisional trade.  

[Robocaller]

What kind of SP can we get on an expiring contract for Small?

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, Robocaller said:

What kind of SP can we get on an expiring contract for Small?

Here’s a list of free agent starting pitchers after this year…

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/ 

Not sure half a season of any of those guys is worth six seasons of Small & the only ones who might be are already on contenders.

[Brewcrew82]

13 hours ago, Robocaller said:

What kind of SP can we get on an expiring contract for Small?

Martin Perez is the guy we should target, and I don't think he would quite cost Small given that he is a FA after the season. 

[brewmann04]

Yes the two relievers we added last season were not David most shining moment. 

[brewmann04]

Imo to make the playoffs they need to win the division and they have to beat the cards 

[KurtRussell]

One guy I'd like to see the Crew target is Michael Fulmer to solidify the pen/provide insurance if one of Boxberger, Williams, or Hader go down.

FA at the end of the year, so hopefully he wouldn't cost too much.

0.953 WHIP/ 1.91 ERA

[sveumrules]

21 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Martin Perez is the guy we should target, and I don't think he would quite cost Small given that he is a FA after the season. 

Good call. Perez has been so average for so long that I forgot he’s having a breakout season this year when I scanned the list.

Only on a 4 million deal too, so should fit on every contender’s payroll.

Will be interesting to see where bidding ends up on Martin. Would hope if Small is dealt it’s for someone with more team control though.

[Roderick]

19 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 Would hope if Small is dealt it’s for someone with more team control though.

I would hope Small is not traded at all.  Not that he is a "for sure" to be a good pitcher, but you would think that one of Woodruff, Burnes, Houser and Lauer is traded to save on salary for 2023 and get young talent (unless it is Hader). 

And look how deep we have went so far with SP injuries this year.  I have my favorites, but would trade anyone else in the minors before Small.  

[Jopal78]

23 hours ago, Roderick said:

I would hope Small is not traded at all.  Not that he is a "for sure" to be a good pitcher, but you would think that one of Woodruff, Burnes, Houser and Lauer is traded to save on salary for 2023 and get young talent (unless it is Hader). 

And look how deep we have went so far with SP injuries this year.  I have my favorites, but would trade anyone else in the minors before Small.  

Maybe internally the Brewers have doubts about Small? After all, Jason Alexander, Trevor Kelley and Peter Strzelecki got longer looks as pitcher in Milwaukee this year.  The prestige of being a first round pick, and a starting pitcher on the cusp of the major leagues makes him valuable, perhaps the high walk rate in AAA has them skeptical (He did walk 4 of the 15 batters he faced when he started earlier this year for Milwaukee) of his prospects as a starting pitcher in the major leagues. 

[nate82]

From reading some of the rumors out there for the Brewers don't expect a major trade as the top 3 Brewers prospects are reportedly untouchable (Chourio, Wiemer and Frelick).  Teams are also not that high on Valerio, Turang, Small and others.  Basically what the Brewers do have are assets that will get you someone like Mancini, Bell, Benintendi and others.  Yes Bell, Mancini and Benintendi will not cost all that much in terms of prospects.  

The Brewers have a lot of utility players which other teams are looking to add.  Hiura has also come up a lot as a possible trade piece that teams are looking at.  Hiura being able to hit RHP's is still intriguing to teams even with the high K%, he would be the classic change of scenery type of trade target.  Scouts are not all that impressed with Small as he is walking too many and most see him as #4 or #5 starter that has value but not for someone like Reynolds.  

The most likely trade pieces the Brewers have is in their catching depth and utility players.  So expect a trade deadline acquisition similar to what the Brewers did last year.  A bunch of relievers and a bat.  I think the Yankees will go out and get Benintendi if they can't get the Pirates to come down from their demands on Reynolds.  That leaves Bell or Mancini for the Brewers.  I believe Hiura will be involved in a trade for either Bell or Mancini as the Orioles and Nationals can both gamble on him being an everyday player and figuring things out.  Jose Sibrian has also come up as a possible trade piece he will probably be used for a reliever.  

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

From reading some of the rumors out there for the Brewers don't expect a major trade as the top 3 Brewers prospects are reportedly untouchable (Chourio, Wiemer and Frelick).  Teams are also not that high on Valerio, Turang, Small and others.  Basically what the Brewers do have are assets that will get you someone like Mancini, Bell, Benintendi and others.  Yes Bell, Mancini and Benintendi will not cost all that much in terms of prospects.  

The Brewers have a lot of utility players which other teams are looking to add.  Hiura has also come up a lot as a possible trade piece that teams are looking at.  Hiura being able to hit RHP's is still intriguing to teams even with the high K%, he would be the classic change of scenery type of trade target.  Scouts are not all that impressed with Small as he is walking too many and most see him as #4 or #5 starter that has value but not for someone like Reynolds.  

The most likely trade pieces the Brewers have is in their catching depth and utility players.  So expect a trade deadline acquisition similar to what the Brewers did last year.  A bunch of relievers and a bat.  I think the Yankees will go out and get Benintendi if they can't get the Pirates to come down from their demands on Reynolds.  That leaves Bell or Mancini for the Brewers.  I believe Hiura will be involved in a trade for either Bell or Mancini as the Orioles and Nationals can both gamble on him being an everyday player and figuring things out.  Jose Sibrian has also come up as a possible trade piece he will probably be used for a reliever.  

You may want to look at the Nationals roster. They're already tanking with a roster filled with cut-rate veteran free agents: Cesar Hernandez (1yr/4 mil), Alcides Escobar (1yr/1 mil.), Maikel Franco (1yr/1.25 mil), Steve Chisek (1yr/1.75 mil), Aaron Sanchez (1yr/2 mil.), Ehire Adrianza (1yr/1.5 mil), Erasmo Ramirez (1yr/700k), Carl Edwards Jr. (1yr/700k.) etc. 

Why would they want a player like Hiura who will be: out of options, arbitration eligible and a free agent before they're ready to contend again? Certainly, they could get the same or similar production from another cut rate free agent, at a fraction of Hiura's likely salary next year and without trading away one of their few premium assets in the process. This is all without getting into whether or not Keston Hiura can figure out how to consistently make contact with the ball. 

There's no reason for Washington to want Keston Hiura while they spin their wheels in mediocrity, when in a trade for Josh Bell they could likely several players who are all years away from the major leagues but who may possibly contribute to the next contending team and  this is especially so when recent history suggests they'll fill their roster with cut rate players on one year deals in hopes of competing for the #1 overall pick. 

Same deal with Baltimore, they look terrible on paper, however they already have an everyday first basemen in Mountcastle with 8 or so of MLB's top 100 prospects on the way. What's their interest in a player who won't necessarily be cheap and will not have enough remaining service time to reasonably be expected to be part of the next good Baltimore team? My guess would be tepid at best, they are the Orioles after all. 

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

You may want to look at the Nationals roster. They're already tanking with a roster filled with cut-rate veteran free agents: Cesar Hernandez (1yr/4 mil), Alcides Escobar (1yr/1 mil.), Maikel Franco (1yr/1.25 mil), Steve Chisek (1yr/1.75 mil), Aaron Sanchez (1yr/2 mil.), Ehire Adrianza (1yr/1.5 mil), Erasmo Ramirez (1yr/700k), Carl Edwards Jr. (1yr/700k.) etc. 

Why would they want a player like Hiura who will be: out of options, arbitration eligible and a free agent before they're ready to contend again? Certainly, they could get the same or similar production from another cut rate free agent, at a fraction of Hiura's likely salary next year and without trading away one of their few premium assets in the process. This is all without getting into whether or not Keston Hiura can figure out how to consistently make contact with the ball. 

There's no reason for Washington to want Keston Hiura while they spin their wheels in mediocrity, when in a trade for Josh Bell they could likely several players who are all years away from the major leagues but who may possibly contribute to the next contending team and  this is especially so when recent history suggests they'll fill their roster with cut rate players on one year deals in hopes of competing for the #1 overall pick. 

Same deal with Baltimore, they look terrible on paper, however they already have an everyday first basemen in Mountcastle with 8 or so of MLB's top 100 prospects on the way. What's their interest in a player who won't necessarily be cheap and will not have enough remaining service time to reasonably be expected to be part of the next good Baltimore team? My guess would be tepid at best, they are the Orioles after all. 

Because the Nationals have to convince Soto they are serious about competing and getting an MLB player back even if he is flawed would help in that.  If the Nationals are not able to convince Soto that they are serious about competing and no trading away Bell for prospects years away is not something that would be seen by Soto as being serious.  Also Bell is not going to bring back a teams 1-5 ranked prospect at best he will bring back a teams 10-15 rank prospect plus another in the 30+ range.  

That is basically Hiura's value of the 30+ range.  That is why Hiura makes sense to the Nationals and to the Orioles.  It would be basically replacing Bell or Mancini on the roster with a cheaper version.  Hiura is not going to get a lot in arbitration and will still be less than what the Nationals or Orioles would have to pay in free agency so there is still savings there.  The Nationals are not going to try and compete for the #1 pick they are going to try and compete with Soto on the roster and try to extend him.  If the Nationals are not able to extend him then they can trade Hiura for whatever and then get a haul for Soto or just keep Hiura and hope he finds something.  Hiura shouldn't cost more the $2m in Arb-1 and if he costs more than that in Arb-2 then that means he has put a solid season together which would be a benefit to the Nationals.  I wouldn't be surprised if this off season the Nationals go on a spending spree to load up on talent with Soto.  The Orioles could also go on a spending spree to load up on talent also as they are close to competing for one of the wild cards.  

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Because the Nationals have to convince Soto they are serious about competing and getting an MLB player back even if he is flawed would help in that.  If the Nationals are not able to convince Soto that they are serious about competing and no trading away Bell for prospects years away is not something that would be seen by Soto as being serious. 

In case you missed it, Soto is represented by Boras Corporation and reportedly already turned down 13yrs/350 million.

Thus, if he stays in Washington it will be about the cash they are willing to pay him and nothing else.  Keston Hiura isn't going to move that needle a millimeter either way. 

I mentioned the prices because, the Nationals literally have close to 40% of their roster made up of players making l.75 million or yes. So regardless of what Hiura gets in arbitration it will be more than the bargain basement rates the Nationals pay. 

[nate82]

28 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

In case you missed it, Soto is represented by Boras Corporation and reportedly already turned down 13yrs/350 million.

Thus, if he stays in Washington it will be about the cash they are willing to pay him and nothing else.  Keston Hiura isn't going to move that needle a millimeter either way. 

I mentioned the prices because, the Nationals literally have close to 40% of their roster made up of players making l.75 million or yes. So regardless of what Hiura gets in arbitration it will be more than the bargain basement rates the Nationals pay. 

No, Hiura will not get more than what Sanchez got in Arbitration.  I just don't see Hiura getting more than $2m in Arb-1 and he will more than likely settle with whatever the team offers him for Arb-1.  That is still a valuable amount and something the Nationals would definitely have an interest in.  

I am not sure how much you think Hiura is going to get but it will be sub $5m and more than likely will be sub $3m.  So something around estimated arbitrations from 2022 $1.7mm (Cavan Biggio) and $2.8mm (Ramon Laureano).  Which is about what you have for the Nationals spending.  So I don't see how Hiura's cost is out of line with what the Nationals have spent recently.