2022 Trade Market

[Jopal78]

17 minutes ago, Outlander said:

It's probably a separate thread but I doubt Hader gets traded. As long as the Brewers are contenders, which appears likely next year, there isn't much reason to trade Hader. Unlikely teams give the Brewers a large enough haul for one year to make it worth it for the Brewers.

I don't think there ever was much of a chance of the Brewers trading him. Hader's current production has him on a Hall of Fame trajectory; and Milwaukee is a contending club.

I don't see a realistic path where a contending team trades away a Hall of Fame caliber talent and get immediately better as a result. 

[wibadgers23]

Yeah Hader is destined to remain a Brewer through the end of his contract and then sign a big deal somewhere else, just like Fielder. 

[wallus]

Wait you guys think we are just going to let Hader walk? That would be shocking to me as we seem to follow the Rays model of team building.

Also, Hader will likely make $18-20 million next year. I highly doubt we use that much of our payroll on a guy that pitches so few innings, I don't care how good he is.

[jay87shot]

14 hours ago, wallus said:

Wait you guys think we are just going to let Hader walk? That would be shocking to me as we seem to follow the Rays model of team building.

Also, Hader will likely make $18-20 million next year. I highly doubt we use that much of our payroll on a guy that pitches so few innings, I don't care how good he is.

My thoughts exactly, for a guy who is going to only pitch 60 or so innings next year we would have to pay that 18-20 million. He should still bring in a top 100 prospect and another decent piece or 2. I have compared it to the Kimbral from Cubs to Sox deal. They got Madrigal a top 100 prospect and Cody Heuer a young reliever with mlb experience. Kimbral had 1.5 years but had more question marks than Hader. 

I would be fine keeping Hader all the way through, however trading him seems like the most logical idea. It could be a win for next year as well if we get 2 mlb ready players, Hader usually worth 2-3.5 WAR which could easily be made up.

[endaround]

If the Brewers pay $20 million for the guy who has a hall of fame talent how can the Brewers pay $8 million for a replacement level DH?

[Roderick]

I would think the Brewers trade Hader this offseason.  You can't just let him walk for nothing after 2023.  There isn't even a comp pick anymore, is there? 

So you have to trade him this offseason, unless he signs a hometown discount extension.   

 

Edit:  I guess there are still comp picks.  So maybe you keep him in 2023 and trade him if out of playoffs at deadline or keep him and just get some type of comp pick.  Not my first choice though.  Stealing a link from a Nate post.

https://apnews.com/article/mlb-sports-business-major-league-baseball-players-association-baseball-732f25c0ec1bc69dcc2ebf903bcdb43b

[wallus]

The difference between Mccutchen and Hader is Mccutchen was signed as a free agent. I also suspect that Mark A had a hand in bringing him in but I could be wrong there. Hader should still bring a nice return and we have his replacement on the roster right now. I would rather the resources be used to keep Woodruff, Burnes and Adames as long as possible.

[Jopal78]

19 hours ago, wallus said:

Wait you guys think we are just going to let Hader walk? That would be shocking to me as we seem to follow the Rays model of team building.

Also, Hader will likely make $18-20 million next year. I highly doubt we use that much of our payroll on a guy that pitches so few innings, I don't care how good he is.

The Brewers are in "Win Now" mode. There are extremely few scenarios where a team in a "Win Now" mode trade elite pitching talent and manages to get better. 

Not even the Rays (as you point out) do it. Sure, David Price was traded as an impending free agent, but the Rays were in the midst of an 85 loss season that year. Yes, they traded Cy Young winner Blake Snell but it was after he had already signed an extension and they wanted to get out from under his contract. In their pennant winning campaign of 2020, they had Charlie Morton on an expiring contract, and they kept him until the bitter end knowing he was going to leave as a free agent. 

Further, whatever Hader's salary would be in 2023, the front office would not be doing their job if they didn't anticipate their essential players' salaries in the coming years and plan for them accordingly (Cain, McCutchen, Narvaez and Wong [club option] are all on expiring contracts). To do otherwise would place them in a situation (ala Ken Griffey Jr. in 2020) where every team would low ball them because it was common knowledge they would be trading the player at some point.  

Its a different paradigm if the team was an also-ran; but being built to compete with the big boys, not to mention the dwindling control of a highly regarded GM, there isn't likely going to be a re-tooling or rebuilding with this group of players. They're most likely going to keep their foot on the gas and the next front office group can figure out the plan once the team is no longer a legitimate World Series contender.

 

[jay87shot]

A 36 year old Charlie Morton in the shortened 2020 season and Josh Hader have drastically different values. The Rays have routinely traded pitchers. Snell, Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, and James Sheilds, that isn't even including relief pitchers. 

$20 million for a reliever on a team that has a max budget of $120 mill is massive. If he throws 60 innings that is 333k per inning. The $20 million isn't prohibitive but if you think about it we can get 2 prospects for trading him and then sign another player or two to 1 year deals to make up for it.

Say we trade Hader to San Diego for Luis Campusano and Nabil Crismatt than we use the $20 to sign Kimbral, Kenley, or Knebel 1 year 10-12 and then sign Michael Brantley 2/28) or just JD Martinez 1/20 with a team option. I feel like that combo improves the team over just Hader.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

A 36 year old Charlie Morton in the shortened 2020 season and Josh Hader have drastically different values. The Rays have routinely traded pitchers. Snell, Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly, and James Sheilds, that isn't even including relief pitchers. 

$20 million for a reliever on a team that has a max budget of $120 mill is massive. If he throws 60 innings that is 333k per inning. The $20 million isn't prohibitive but if you think about it we can get 2 prospects for trading him and then sign another player or two to 1 year deals to make up for it.

Say we trade Hader to San Diego for Luis Campusano and Nabil Crismatt than we use the $20 to sign Kimbral, Kenley, or Knebel 1 year 10-12 and then sign Michael Brantley 2/28) or just JD Martinez 1/20 with a team option. I feel like that combo improves the team over just Hader.

Look at the pitchers you cited, and it proves the point: contending teams hardly ever move elite pitching to avoid losing them to free agency. 

Snell--traded after the 2020 world series in a salary dump with 3yrs and 40 million left on his contract.

Archer-traded in 2019 a season which Tampa missed the playoffs and finished 18 games behind in their division.

Cobb- you didn't bother to look; he left as a free agent.

Odorizzi-traded after 2017- a losing season for Tampa.

David Price-mentioned previously, was traded amidst an 85 loss season.

Hellickson-traded after the aforesaid 85 loss season.

Matt Moore-traded during a 96 loss season. 

Drew Smyly-traded after the aforesaid 96 loss season

James Shields--This might be the sole example of where they moved elite pitcher during a period where they contended, but he wasn't an impending free agent at the time.

Its fun to play arm chair GM, but even amongst the players you cited above Jansen, Kimbrel or Corey Knebel are all a downgrade and (depending which Kimbrel you get) all are a significant downgrade. Second, JD Martinez (similar situation when folks here were clamoring of Castellanos) won't need to take a one year deal, he'll have multi-year offers. 

 

 

[wallus]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers are in "Win Now" mode. There are extremely few scenarios where a team in a "Win Now" mode trade elite pitching talent and manages to get better. 

Stearns has said multiple times that the team wants continued success and wants to acquire young controllable talent.  There is no "Win Now" mode anymore. The boom and bust years of Doug Melvin are gone. The only way the Brewers keep Hader is if the trade offers are weak. I would hope for a top 100 prospect and another good player for Josh after the season.

[Jopal78]

38 minutes ago, wallus said:

Stearns has said multiple times that the team wants continued success and wants to acquire young controllable talent.  There is no "Win Now" mode anymore. The boom and bust years of Doug Melvin are gone. The only way the Brewers keep Hader is if the trade offers are weak. I would hope for a top 100 prospect and another good player for Josh after the season.

That’s the beauty of generalities they can mean anything. “Continued success” could mean competing in the NL for multiple years while they have this group of players intact.

No team without drafting close to perfectly and without a 200 million dollar payroll can keep it going year and year out into perpetuity; so yes even for the Rays, Oakland and Milwaukee there is a win now mode. 

[sveumrules]

Looking at the various playoff odds today I think the seller pool is starting to solidify.

NL: PIT, WAS, COL, CIN, CHC, ARI, MIA

AL: BAL, KCR, DET, OAK, TEX and SEA.

BOS is still sitting in the 30-38% range, solidly behind the top seven contenders, so looking like a good bet to end up here barring a run over the next couple months & CLE is around 10-20% so an even longer shot for them.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

17 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s the beauty of generalities they can mean anything. “Continued success” could mean competing in the NL for multiple years while they have this group of players intact.

No team without drafting close to perfectly and without a 200 million dollar payroll can keep it going year and year out into perpetuity; so yes even for the Rays, Oakland and Milwaukee there is a win now mode. 

This team has generally been in contention for a playoff spot since going 86-76 in 2017. Suter, Woodruff and Hader are the only players remaining who were active on that team. The Brewers have proven that it is in fact possible to stay in contention for a long period while turning over a significant portion of the roster. They have also proven that putting a good product on the field consistently puts butts in seats. Therefore I don't expect the extreme "rebuild" lows that we saw often under previous regimes. As long as Stearns and his organizational philosophy (in a predicted eventual handoff to Arnold) remains in place, I expect this team to be solid. 

[StearnsFTW]

No thanks on Mullins.  Cost would be too high for a guy who's only done it once.

 

Gimme Laureano at a much lower price.  Great defender.  Potential in the bat.

Honestly though, I'd take anyone just to get Cain off my TV.  Yeesh.

[SRB]

Playoff hopefuls do not trade star players during their walk years (or prior to their walk years) to get prospects. Simply does not happen, and there is almost 0% chance it happens with Hader.

[paul253]

What if you pair Hader with Woodruff in a de? Ashby is ready for a full time spot and that would make Ethan Small your #6 behind Burnes, Lauer, Houser, Peralta and Ashby.  
 

The Brewers don’t have a ton of high impact prospects, especially on the mound.  If they can get a major league contributor or two in this deal plus 2-3 high end prospects they should seriously consider it.

 

[igor67]

Even for a lights out closer I just don't consistently see the returns for the Crew being good enough. An offseason retool trade of a veteran starter to promote healthy and slow rotation turn over makes more sense to me, but on balance I see us holding Hader all the way through for the comp pick and how ever many major league seasons we can get.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, paul253 said:

What if you pair Hader with Woodruff in a de? Ashby is ready for a full time spot and that would make Ethan Small your #6 behind Burnes, Lauer, Houser, Peralta and Ashby.  
 

The Brewers don’t have a ton of high impact prospects, especially on the mound.  If they can get a major league contributor or two in this deal plus 2-3 high end prospects they should seriously consider it.

 

Just wouldn't be a good idea to trade Hader and Woodruff you just won't get enough value back.  If you are going to trade Hader and Woodruff you would trade them by themselves and not in a package deal.  There just isn't a team out there that would be able to give up the players needed for a deal like that to happen.  

[paul253]

I think plenty of teams would have enough to offer in return. It’s just a matter of whether or not they would. 
 

If the Yankees offered up a package of Jason Dominguez, Austin Wells, Ken Waldichuk and Hayden Wesneski for Hader and Woodruff after the season I would be inclined to take that. 
 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, paul253 said:

I think plenty of teams would have enough to offer in return. It’s just a matter of whether or not they would. 
 

If the Yankees offered up a package of Jason Dominguez, Austin Wells, Ken Waldichuk and Hayden Wesneski for Hader and Woodruff after the season I would be inclined to take that. 
 

If both Hader and Woodruff are being included in said deal, I would start with Anthony Volpe and proceed to hang up the phone if the Yankees demur. 

[Robocaller]

How about Gilberto Celestino as an option at CF?
He's never before hit like he's hit this season, so there'd be a high chance of regression to the mean, but he's hitting .324 (with limited power) and probably wouldn't cost much. 

[nate82]

7 hours ago, Robocaller said:

How about Gilberto Celestino as an option at CF?
He's never before hit like he's hit this season, so there'd be a high chance of regression to the mean, but he's hitting .324 (with limited power) and probably wouldn't cost much. 

Not sure why the Twins would want to give up someone like that.  He looks to be more of a 4th or 5th OF.  Why give up assets when you already have a player like him on the team already.

I don't see CF as this glaring problem as everyone else apparently.  I just don't see Cain and Taylor as being a problem that the Brewers have to go out and trade for someone.  When Cain is in lately he has been down in the order which is fine as long as Cain is in the 7-9 batting spot his production is not as big of an issue as some are making it out to be.  

There are bigger issues like the middle part of the Brewers bullpen that needs to be fixed more so than CF.  Right now the Brewers don't have the depth at relief pitching that they normally do and they are not performing outside of Gott and Hader.  Do you really trust Williams and Boxberger in the 7th and 8th inning and no Hader is not pitching multiple innings as that is not even an option anymore.

To me CF is a low hanging fruit problem and the Brewers need to improve in other areas over CF.  

[brewers888]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Not sure why the Twins would want to give up someone like that.  He looks to be more of a 4th or 5th OF.  Why give up assets when you already have a player like him on the team already.

I don't see CF as this glaring problem as everyone else apparently.  I just don't see Cain and Taylor as being a problem that the Brewers have to go out and trade for someone.  When Cain is in lately he has been down in the order which is fine as long as Cain is in the 7-9 batting spot his production is not as big of an issue as some are making it out to be.  

There are bigger issues like the middle part of the Brewers bullpen that needs to be fixed more so than CF.  Right now the Brewers don't have the depth at relief pitching that they normally do and they are not performing outside of Gott and Hader.  Do you really trust Williams and Boxberger in the 7th and 8th inning and no Hader is not pitching multiple innings as that is not even an option anymore.

To me CF is a low hanging fruit problem and the Brewers need to improve in other areas over CF.  

I agree that we will probably need to trade for some bullpen guys but unless you think Taylor can handle CF well enough defensively or that Cain won't be essentially an automatic out we need to do something there as well.  

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I agree that we will probably need to trade for some bullpen guys but unless you think Taylor can handle CF well enough defensively or that Cain won't be essentially an automatic out we need to do something there as well.  

Doesn’t matter either way.  You are talking about the 7 8 or 9 hitter.  They have very little impact on the offense.  Trading assets away for what would be a small gain is just dumb.  You would have to trade for someone that will be better than Adames and Tellez and at CF there really isn’t anyone like that available.  Again it will be better for the Brewers to trade for players who won’t cost all that much in terms of prospects.