2022 MLB Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

[patrickgpe]

16 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

I think most of their day one picks are going to sign near slot, but that they saved some money in day two that will be used to go over slot on a couple of players yet to be drafted. 

Also, one thing to keep in mind is the rule changes surrounding undrafted free agents. There is no longer a spending limit on what you can offer UDFAs. With only 20 rounds, any draft eligible player not selected is now able to sign for up to $125,000 without it impacting the signing team. Any amount over $125,000 on an individual player goes against the team’s bonus pool. 

So now teams can use the money saved in the first ten rounds not only on draftees in rounds 11-20, but also as a way to commit more financial resources toward UDFAs. You can take some big chances in rounds 11-20, and if it doesn’t work out you can pivot to make a run at some of the best UDFAs. 

I don’t see any obvious overslot guys today which is disappointing that they didn’t try to get one.. I think your assessment is spot on. 

[patrickgpe]

One more point, I’m happy about the focus on collegiate and juco players. They do need to get good players in double and triple a in short order. 

[colbyjack]

I saw some comments wondering about Robert Moore's numbers from last year to this year. He completely changed his approach in an attempt to reduce his strikeouts. He understands the metric side of the game as well as anyone and really made it a point to stop chasing as much. This led to a drop in power and overall production but the K:BB evened out in the process.

I watched him play recently at the Stillwater Regional and you could tell the difference, and he was still impacting the baseball hard. I've seen him play at various times of his career, from when he was 14-15 years old to the summer after his junior year when he was 16 to his first summer in the Northwoods League. Despite his smaller size he has always impacted the ball hard. He reminds me of someone like Francisco Lindor in that regard, or Corbin Carroll, a top prospect in the Dbacks system. I'm not comparing them as prospects only comparing how consistently well they square up the baseball despite being smaller players.

Moore is truly a creative wizard defensively and only played 2B in deference to Jalen Battles, Moore's arm isn't ideal for shortstop but he's so dang quick with both his feet and hands it makes up for a lot of arm strength deficiencies. You need to see him play and you'll see what I'm talking about. It's a special defensive profile.

But his 16 bombs weren't like the random year Jim Gantner hit something like 11 home runs as a big league – it wasn't a fluke. That power is there and it's legit. It's not home run derby power but he knows how to square up a baseball and drive it. He has the baseball confidence to back it up and not surprisingly was nicknamed "Big Game Bob." I prefer his #BobMoore hashtag nickname even better. There is no other player in this draft that I have confidently felt would be a big leaguer.

If you're interested, read my story on him from 2 summers ago which includes some video from that day:

https://thegrindbaseball.com/2020/10/07/from-hogs-to-honkers-moore-excels/

[colbyjack]

As for Day 3, I'd really like to see Gavin Kilen picked, the SS from Milton. At this point it seems likely he heads to Louisville, but crazier things have happened and the team budgeted their top 10 picks a year ago to save about $1 million. If they do/did the same this year Kilen is the type of player I'd love to see targeted. He too is an undersized middle-of-the-field player with good hard-hit ball data.

[homer]

10 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

One more point, I’m happy about the focus on collegiate and juco players. They do need to get good players in double and triple a in short order. 

this is a league wide trend. With fewer minor league teams they won't risk taking as many high schoolers. should help the college game I suppose. 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, brewers888 said:

I am totally against drafting what is considered high floor types in the early rounds. It should be  all upside early on and they can go with the lesser upside guys later. The second round pitcher whose name I refuse to even try to spell is the type of high upside talent that we need more of.

In the early rounds, they should be going for a mix of high ceiling and high floor. In the later rounds, what's the loss in picking the guys with the highest upside? That's where you pick lottery tickets, not just organizational soldiers to fill a roster. You sign those after the draft.

 

[UpandIn]

On 7/17/2022 at 10:08 PM, brewers888 said:

Hopefully this guy surprises and has as successful a career as his possible future manager who he is compared to as a player. 

Who has compared him to the manager? I've seen one VERY general and seemingly half serious comment about "how if there's one manager who likes funky set up's, it's Craig Counsell." 

 

Beyond that, how/when has he been comped to Craig Counsell?

[UpandIn]

On 7/17/2022 at 11:29 PM, clancyphile said:

Floor? A right-handed Josh Hader.

C'mon...his FLOOR...meaning the worst possible outcome is that he becomes the best reliever in baseball to start his career who has been named the NL Reliever of the Year award for 3 of the last 4 years...with the ONE year he didn't win it, it went to his SU man and he allowed 8ERs in a shortened season....with 6 of those coming in two starts spanning 1.1 IP?

That wasn't the floor for Steven Strausburg...so while I very much like this pick, that's most definitely NOT the "floor" for this 20-year-old Juco kid.

What do you suppose his ceiling is if Josh Hader...probably the best reliever in Brewer(just while pitching for the Brewers) is the floor?

It's gotta be Jacob deGrom? Bob Gibson but 5 inches taller? A guy like that would...seemingly be a lock to be the #1 overall pick and go over-slot. If you were getting at WORST Josh Hader.

[Jim Goulart]

Both worthwhile with quotes:

'Surreal moment': Misiorowski reflects on draft night, looks toward future as Brewers' second-round pick

All-American pitcher Jacob Misiorowski is headed to Milwaukee

[ClosetBrewerFan]

8 hours ago, colbyjack said:

If you're interested, read my story on him from 2 summers ago which includes some video from that day:

https://thegrindbaseball.com/2020/10/07/from-hogs-to-honkers-moore-excels/

Nice article Patrick.  I'm excited to see what Robert can do in the minors.

[wibadgers23]

This has probably already been asked here but do we think these guys will report to Carolina relatively soon and start playing? Particularly our first few picks.

[Jim Goulart]

Fun quotes from 10th round LHP Brian Fitzpatrick of Rutgers.

That's a Newsday article, it let me open it as one free article on my phone, hopefully you can as well.

 

[jay87shot]

I am really disappointed we didn't really draft any middle of the order potential bats. I am sure that someone could develop but it seems like the 3 SS are more like utility prospects. The Penn St. catcher and Louisville 3B seem like good picks. Misiorowski really is the only pick I would call good value and he was still rated by almost everyone below draft value.

I do really like that we are focusing on guys who walk more than strikeout. I do feel that guys like this end up with higher ceilings and can take off as prospects if a little more power.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

This has probably already been asked here but do we think these guys will report to Carolina relatively soon and start playing? Particularly our first few picks.

It used to be as soon as they were signed, they would be assigned to a team if healthy.

If last year is any indication, though, the position players’ activation with the ACL team will be staggered and the college guys will play there about a week before moving to Carolina. Last year about half the pitchers never got activated and made their debuts this year.

[SoCalBrewfan]

15 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

I don’t see any obvious overslot guys today which is disappointing that they didn’t try to get one.. I think your assessment is spot on. 

The rules for bonuses etc make those more likely in day 3 I believe.

[Austin Tatious]

Misiorowski is probably my favorite pick, but Metzinger is probably my favorite pick in terms of value.  I like his skill set and positional fit.

https://www.si.com/college/louisville/othersports/metzinger-selected-in-2022-draft

[SoCalBrewfan]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I am really disappointed we didn't really draft any middle of the order potential bats. I am sure that someone could develop but it seems like the 3 SS are more like utility prospects.

With all due respect, I don't know where that's coming from; utility roles might be the fallback position but Brown and Moore are strong bats who have defensive value that can stick in the middle of the field.  Maybe they're more like to bat 1-2 in an order than 4-5 but the potential value in OBP heavy profile with some pop and great D is there.

It's important to remember also that the MLB draft has very little to do with the current makeup of the big league squad.  So drafting based on the current perception of the brewers offense, say, is somewhat misguided. That's more a general comment than response to this post, but it seems like a lot of commenters are mad about the draft because it doesn't deliver fixes for the current big league lineup...which will be ancient history when these guys are in their primes.

 

 

[BrewCrew8675309]

On 7/18/2022 at 7:49 AM, brewers888 said:

Can never have enough outfielders.

Aged like milk...guess they are going to get them all from South America.

[BrewCrew8675309]

On 7/18/2022 at 9:05 AM, brewmann04 said:

The guys on MLB think he more of a Second Baseman 

He will replace Ty Black when we package Black to WSH for Bell.

[Jim Goulart]

Cal Poly Pomona’s Will Rudy, former Woodbridge star, selected by Brewers in MLB draft

Fifth rounder will be signing, detailed article on the RHP here

[Never Outhustled]

On 7/17/2022 at 9:18 PM, Neazy32 said:

its hilarious having guys on here talking like they know anything about these guys having never seen them play

ill trust the Brewers on this one...think we will save some money here to

That's what a lot of posters said when I criticized the Corey Ray selection, while they thought he was the next great thing. He goes down as the biggest bust in franchise history. My issue with Brown is the same as with Ray.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

That's what a lot of posters said when I criticized the Corey Ray selection, while they thought he was the next great thing. He goes down as the biggest bust in franchise history. My issue with Brown is the same as with Ray.

Out of curiosity, what is that? They seem like completely opposite ends of the spectrum. 

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

That's what a lot of posters said when I criticized the Corey Ray selection, while they thought he was the next great thing. He goes down as the biggest bust in franchise history. My issue with Brown is the same as with Ray.

Ahem... Antoine Williamson (#4 overall); perhaps even Ken Henderson who they took #5 overall in 1991. The Brewers passed over Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Doug Glanville,  and Cliff Floyd to select Henderson then failed to get him signed. 

[NBBrewFan]

On 7/18/2022 at 10:16 PM, colbyjack said:

He understands the metric side of the game as well as anyone and really made it a point to stop chasing as much. This led to a drop in power and overall production but the K:BB evened out in the process.

I'm confused by this.  To reduce his strikeout numbers he stopped chasing, but that lead to a power drop.  To me chasing means balls out of the strike zone. What was he chasing?

[Robocaller]

On 7/19/2022 at 7:27 AM, wibadgers23 said:

This has probably already been asked here but do we think these guys will report to Carolina relatively soon and start playing? Particularly our first few picks.

I'd think most will go to the AZ rookie league teams.