Celebrate Rowdy Tellez's 30th HR

[markedman5]

Bump in honor of Rowdy’s 30th homer of the season!

[Outlander]

Why isn't this thread ever locked. Just like an ump, consistency is good.

[Matt Breen]

Rusty has some good points - but his defense and base running are bad. It makes him okay. I don't have a problem rolling with him again next year. He'll be 28 - so maybe he can up his game just a bit more. But honestly, he's not a starter on a good team. His defense just isn't good and he's a terrible baserunner. If the club traded him and went in a different direction - I'd be fine with it. However, it's hard to trade guys who hit 30 HRs - even if you know - deep down - he's not a good option. And let's face it - we might not have a better option.

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Rusty has some good points - but his defense and base running are bad. It makes him okay. I don't have a problem rolling with him again next year. He'll be 28 - so maybe he can up his game just a bit more. But honestly, he's not a starter on a good team. His defense just isn't good and he's a terrible baserunner. If the club traded him and went in a different direction - I'd be fine with it. However, it's hard to trade guys who hit 30 HRs - even if you know - deep down - he's not a good option. And let's face it - we might not have a better option.

It's an admittedly limited sample size but Hiura at 1B through his nearly 600 career innings is graded more favorably by DRS, UZR/150 and OAA than Rowdy is. He is also a much better baserunner than Rowdy. I'm not sure how the Brewers feel about Hiura as an everyday player with his whiff issues, but he could be an all-around upgrade over Rowdy.

I think Yelich has one more year as a LF before moving primarily to DH in 2024, so Brewers will need to pick between one of Rowdy and Hiura at 1B in the next year because Rowdy, Yelich, Hiura all are guys who hit RHP better than LHP so there isn't a platoon situation available between them. 

[Brewcrew82]

42 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Rusty has some good points - but his defense and base running are bad. It makes him okay. I don't have a problem rolling with him again next year. He'll be 28 - so maybe he can up his game just a bit more. But honestly, he's not a starter on a good team. His defense just isn't good and he's a terrible baserunner. If the club traded him and went in a different direction - I'd be fine with it. However, it's hard to trade guys who hit 30 HRs - even if you know - deep down - he's not a good option. And let's face it - we might not have a better option.

He'd be better off as the full-time DH to off-set some of that negative defensive value imo. I still think there's some upside with his bat as he hit for a higher average last year and hits the ball as consistently hard as anyone. 

[WICKDADDY]

30 bombs in his 1st season as a full time starter ain't nothing to complain about. Love the big fella! 

[JRob1125]

Is his defense really THAT bad? Just from watching it seems average, maybe a little above

[monty57]

1 hour ago, JRob1125 said:

Is his defense really THAT bad? Just from watching it seems average, maybe a little above

Fangraphs has him as a 1.0 WAR player at this point, so he's not hurting us, but he's replaceable. Most of his value is on offense (wRC+ 115). 

Defensively, in computing WAR, Fangraphs has +3.3 offensive, -11.2 defensive to compute the 1.0 total WAR. 

Defensive Runs Saved: -5
UZR/150: +2.1
Outs Above Average: -4
Fielding Runs Prevented: -3

From a WAR/$ standpoint, Fangraphs puts him at a $8.1M value. He made $1.9M this year and will be in year 2 arby next year, so I'd guess around $4-5M. If you believe in valuing players this way, he'll probably be a bit underpaid next year if he puts up a similar year, and he'll have another year of arby after that. That extra value should also make him tradeable if they decide to go that route, but I wouldn't expect a huge return.

Bottom line, I'm fine with holding onto him for another year if we use our limited resources to upgrade elsewhere, but I'm also fine if they find an upgrade, or decide to go with Hiura there, and trade Rowdy away. He's the type of player that has a role as long as he's relatively cheap, but teams should be looking to upgrade from him if possible.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Unless They could get more for Rowdy than I suspect they would I think the best plan is to roll with him in '23, then see where you are with guys like Xavier Warren, Wes Clarke, or even Thomas Dillard. I've liked his bat-to-ball skills since he's been here; with just a little better ability to lay off certain pitches I think his numbers could go a little northward re BA & OBP.

[nate82]

Rowdy as a bat profiles a lot like Schwarber.  I think Rowdy is at about his ceiling so for the next few seasons the Brewers have a 120 wRC+ player on their hands which I don't believe they will replace him until he hits free agency or if he has a poor year next year.  I think you can pencil Tellez in for about a 120wRC+ in each of the next few years.  His final year of arbitration will probably put him at about even in terms of $/results.  

[treego14]

Howdy, Rowdy!  ?

Pleased to have you, partner!  

[Samurai Bucky]

Yeah... it is time to trade him...

Glad they stuck with him instead of Vogelbach.

[treego14]

3 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Yeah... it is time to trade him...

Glad they stuck with him instead of Vogelbach.

Tellez vs. Vogelbach comparison

[phnxcrew]

I feel like rowdy will greatly benefit from shifts being reduced.  Between rowdy and Ruiz/frelick bunting all over the place that should be three huge upgrades in the lineup.

[LouisEly]

7 hours ago, monty57 said:

Fangraphs has him as a 1.0 WAR player at this point, so he's not hurting us, but he's replaceable. Most of his value is on offense (wRC+ 115). 

Defensively, in computing WAR, Fangraphs has +3.3 offensive, -11.2 defensive to compute the 1.0 total WAR. 

Defensive Runs Saved: -5
UZR/150: +2.1
Outs Above Average: -4
Fielding Runs Prevented: -3

From a WAR/$ standpoint, Fangraphs puts him at a $8.1M value. He made $1.9M this year and will be in year 2 arby next year, so I'd guess around $4-5M. If you believe in valuing players this way, he'll probably be a bit underpaid next year if he puts up a similar year, and he'll have another year of arby after that. That extra value should also make him tradeable if they decide to go that route, but I wouldn't expect a huge return.

Bottom line, I'm fine with holding onto him for another year if we use our limited resources to upgrade elsewhere, but I'm also fine if they find an upgrade, or decide to go with Hiura there, and trade Rowdy away. He's the type of player that has a role as long as he's relatively cheap, but teams should be looking to upgrade from him if possible.

I posted this in another thread, but Fangraphs has almost every 1B at negative defensive value.  18 of the top 20 qualified 1B, and the only one who is positive has played more 3B and 2B than 1B.  I think Fangraphs compares to all players of all positions, not just within that position, otherwise they wouldn't have almost every 1B as negative defensively.

[wiguy94]

17 minutes ago, phnxcrew said:

I feel like rowdy will greatly benefit from shifts being reduced.  Between rowdy and Ruiz/frelick bunting all over the place that should be three huge upgrades in the lineup.

SIS did a little analysis on hitters who would most benefit from the shift ban and Rowdy and Tyrone were among the players listed. Here is a link to the article if you want more details Corey Seager And Others Who Should Benefit From The Shift Ban (sportsinfosolutions.com) 

It says Rowdy and Taylor respectively lost 15 and 9 hits to the shift this season. I did the math and this is a slash line comparison between them currently and with those additional hits.

Tellez slash would go from .228/.317/.474 to .261/.346/.507 for an OPS of .853

 

Tyrone slash would go from .225/.281/.441 to .253/.307/.469 for an OPS of .776

Tellez slash would go from .228/.317/.474 to .261/.346/.507 for an OPS of .853 Tyrone slash would go from .225/.281/.441 to .253/.307/.469 for an OPS of .776

Tellez slash would go from .228/.317/.474 to .261/.346/.507 for an OPS of .853 Tyrone slash would go from .225/.281/.441 to .253/.307/.469 for an OPS of .776

Tellez slash would go from .228/.317/.474 to .261/.346/.507 for an OPS of .853 Tyrone slash would go from .225/.281/.441 to .253/.307/.469 for an OPS of .776

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I posted this in another thread, but Fangraphs has almost every 1B at negative defensive value.  18 of the top 20 qualified 1B, and the only one who is positive has played more 3B and 2B than 1B.  I think Fangraphs compares to all players of all positions, not just within that position, otherwise they wouldn't have almost every 1B as negative defensively.

Correct. The DEF column on the FG leaderboards includes fielding & positional adjustment.

Going back to 2018, Rowdy is one of 25 first basemen with at least 2,000 innings.

He ranks 22nd in DRS (-12), 13th in UZR (+0.7) and 22nd in OAA (-17).

Among 305 players with at least 1,000 PAs since 2018, Rowdy ranks 267th on the bases at -9.9 runs. Limiting it to just 1B he is 30th of 48.

Definitely kills a lot of his value afield & on the bases, even compared to other 1B.

[Axman59]

Was a similar thread started for Chris Carter? Who hit 41 bombs in 2016?

And was out of the league a year later.

I'm sick of these hit bombs and nothing else wastes of space like Tellez, Vogelpig, and Carter.

[CheezWizHed]

11 hours ago, Axman59 said:

Was a similar thread started for Chris Carter? Who hit 41 bombs in 2016?

And was out of the league a year later.

I'm sick of these hit bombs and nothing else wastes of space like Tellez, Vogelpig, and Carter.

Frankly, I'm not sure why Carter was dropped so suddenly. Yes, a pretty empty batting line, but he still had value (positive WAR from 2012-2016). Maybe his post 30 drop off was significant?  And yes... he did have various threads when he hit HR milestones (though maybe 40, not 30). 

Vogelbach was a waiver wire chance that actually did ok for a season, but never was a long term plan.

Tellez isn't going to carry us to a WS victory, but he is hardly our weak spot either. He ranks around the middle of the pack for 1B in the league and sadly... we've had worse.  I'm happy to keep him on a low cost contract while we try to find a better option. 

When looking at the value someone brings to the position, you do need to keep in mind the alternatives, too.  This isn't the mid-90s when high value 1Bs were a dime-a-dozen.  He is basically providing the same WAR as Matt Olson for Atlanta this year and several others in that upper 700-lower 800 OPS range.  If you can't get the guys at the top, a low cost middling 1B has value. 

[monty57]

Tellez has a wRC+ of 115. Looking at team numbers for DH, the Dodgers rank 8th in baseball with a 116 wRC+, and the Cubs are 9th at 109. The Brewers are 13th at 105 (McCutchen is at 98, so that number is boosted by Hiura and others). At first base, the Brewers are tied with Atlanta for 13th at 116 wRC+. Tellez would be an above-average DH, and about an average offensive 1B.

Offensively, splitting 1B/DH between Hiura and Tellez with Brosseau getting some PAs there vs LHP would give them above-average combined production for those two positions. Since all of those players will be in arby next year, none of them will break the bank, so I don't think 1B/DH will be the biggest concern for this offseason. Maybe if Brosseau is needed for a platoon elsewhere, they look for another utility guy who can hit lefties, but otherwise I think Tellez and Hiura should be able to handle those two positions just fine.

Rowdy might not be "the answer," but he's also not the problem, at least not while he's still in his arby years.

[dlk9s]

Hey, good celebration, everyone.

[Matt Breen]

On 9/12/2022 at 9:14 AM, JRob1125 said:

Is his defense really THAT bad? Just from watching it seems average, maybe a little above

 

On 9/12/2022 at 6:47 PM, sveumrules said:

Correct. The DEF column on the FG leaderboards includes fielding & positional adjustment.

Going back to 2018, Rowdy is one of 25 first basemen with at least 2,000 innings.

He ranks 22nd in DRS (-12), 13th in UZR (+0.7) and 22nd in OAA (-17).

Among 305 players with at least 1,000 PAs since 2018, Rowdy ranks 267th on the bases at -9.9 runs. Limiting it to just 1B he is 30th of 48.

Definitely kills a lot of his value afield & on the bases, even compared to other 1B.

I think this demonstrates that Rowdy is - routinely - in the lower end of the defensive spectrum of first baseman. 

And his base running is awful. 

As someone noted, Rowdy gets burned by the shift - so if he could improve the BA to the .260-270 range - that would really help his value. 

I'm guessing Rowdy doesn't make more than $5M next year - so we can roll with the guy if there are no better options. But his defense and base running do limit his value. 

[AKCheesehead]

On 9/15/2022 at 11:45 AM, dlk9s said:

Hey, good celebration, everyone.

I bet Willy Adames felt slighted when he checked Brewerfanatic yesterday and saw he didn't get his celebration.