2023 Brewers Season Predictions (Post-ST)

[Brewcrew82]

With ST now officially in the rearview mirror and OD on Thursday, I figured it's time to create another predictions thread. So, time for "official" preseason predictions per the following categories:

MVP: Corbin Burnes

CY Young: Corbin Burnes

Rookie of the Year: Sal Frelick

BA Leader: Sal Frelick (.294), may not qualify, but this is a pretty safe pick imo

HR Leader: Rowdy Tellez (37)

ERA Leader: Corbin Burnes (2.47)

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes (252)

WAR Leader: Corbin Burnes (6.7)

Breakout(s): Luis Urias, Abner Uribe, Freddy Peralta (healthy, 30 starts, top 10 CY)

Disappointment(s): Eric Lauer, Matt Bush, Garrett Mitchell

Bold Prediction (s): Chourio debuts in August and plants himself at the top of the order during the stretch run. 

Record: 90-72

Playoffs? Yes, Wild Card. Lose WS in 5 to SEA (FINALLY the team that "gets hot")

 

[MVP2110]

MVP: Brandon Woodruff

CY Young: Brandon Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Sal Frelick

BA Leader: Sal Frelick 

HR Leader: Willy Adames

ERA Leader: Woodruff for SP, Strzelecki for everyone

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes

WAR Leader: Willy Adames

Breakout(s): Frelick, Winker, Strzeleck, Varland, Guerra

Disappointment(s): Lauer, Bush, Mitchell, Contreras

Bold Prediction (s): Tyrone Taylor is traded in May, Counsell wins Manager of the Year

Record: 89-73

Playoffs? Yes, NL Central Champs, lose to Dodgers in NLDS

[wallus]

MVP: Freddy Peralta

CY Young: Freddy Peralta

Rookie of the Year: Garrett Mitchell

BA Leader: Jesse Winker

HR Leader: Rowdy Tellez 

ERA Leader: Freddy Peralta (2.65)

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes (244)

WAR Leader: Freddy Peralta (7.3)

Breakout(s): Garrett Mitchell, Rowdy Tellez

Disappointment(s): Eric Lauer, Matt Bush, William Contreras

Bold Prediction (s): The Brewers get off to a good start and fans show up well. MA makes a big trade at the deadline.

Record: 92-70

Playoffs? Yes, win division. Win the World Series.

[pitchleague]

MVP:   Christian Yelich

CY Young: Brandon Woodruff

Rookie of the Year:  Garrett Mitchell

BA Leader: Sal Frelick 

HR Leader: Rowdy Tellez

ERA Leader:  Corbin Burnes

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes

WAR Leader: Christian Yelich

Breakout(s): Frelick, Weimer, Varland,

Disappointment(s):  Urias, Miley, Contreras (he’ll be fine, but we probably expected more)

Bold Prediction (s): Brewers get an All Star starter (not necessarily voted in by the fans)

Record: 91-71

Playoffs? Yes, NL Central Champs, beat themselves in NLCS as bats completely disappear 

[nate82]

I just did an Out of The Park sim using the '24 version.  Brewers win the NL Central going 97-65.  The game does not like Frelick and Yelich.  The game also loves Peralta.  I haven't sim'd the playoffs yet but I am going to expect the Brewers to not make it to the WS. 

 

[SomewhereInTime]

MVP:  Urias

CY Young: Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Mitchell

BA Leader:  Mitchell (.346), will qualify

HR Leader: Urias (47)

ERA Leader:  Woodruff (qualifier 1.98), Williams (min. 50 IP 0.67)

SO Leader: Woodruff (279)

WAR Leader:  Urias (11.6)

Breakout(s): Urias, Mitchell, Strzelecki

Disappointment(s): Burnes, Contreras

Bold Prediction (s):  Can't think of any

Record: 146-16

Playoffs? WS win 4-0 over BAL

Buckle up!

[Frisbee Slider]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

I just did an Out of The Park sim using the '24 version.  Brewers win the NL Central going 97-65.  The game does not like Frelick and Yelich.  The game also loves Peralta.  I haven't sim'd the playoffs yet but I am going to expect the Brewers to not make it to the WS. 

 

What a strange simulated year for Corbin Burnes.

[jay87shot]

 

MVP:  Woodruff/Adames

CY Young: Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Turang

BA Leader:  (.285 Yeli, Frelick hit .301 but doesn't qualify)

HR Leader: Contreras/Adames 32

ERA Leader:  Woodruff 2.52

SO Leader: Woodruff 231

WAR Leader:  Adames 6.3, Woody 6.8

Breakout(s): Contreras, Turang, Guerra, Ashby 

Disappointment(s): Multiple injuries to key players (Rowdy, Winker, Mitchell, Miley, Lauer) and bullpen issues. 

Bold Prediction (s):  Yeli leads the league in SB, team starts slow (bullpen/injuries) 26-34, we trade Burnes O's in July  (Holiday, Westburg, DL Hall, Keegan Akin and then the team plays better and sneaks in the playoffs. Front office gets lots of blame for trading Burnes to early but adds a couple key pieces at the deadline that make up for it.

Record: 87-75

Playoffs- Win 1st round, lose 2nd to Dodgers

 

[BrewLongma34]

MVP:  Rowdy

CY Young: Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Mitchell

BA Leader:  Mitchell .294     Yelich will be close behind at .289

HR Leader: Contreras

ERA Leader:   Woodruff and Peralta will both be sub 2.60

SO Leader:  Burnes

WAR Leader:   Contreras 

Breakout(s): Urias, Yelich,  Peralta will solidify himself as one of the leagues top pitchers along with Woodruff and Burnes  

Disappointment(s):  Lauer, BP will take some beatings.  Adames will struggle due to not knowing his future and putting too much stress upon himself.

Bold Prediction (s):  Yelich will win Comeback Player of the Year award.

Mitchell will be a 20/20 player.

Turang will solidify himself as the teams 2B.  Will have a .340 OBP and will have 80+ Runs due to the top of the order  

Record: 90-72

Playoffs?  Yes.  Just get in and with our pitching…anything can happen    Let’s goooo!  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, BrewLongma34 said:

MVP:  Rowdy

CY Young: Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Mitchell

BA Leader:  Mitchell .294     Yelich will be close behind at .289

HR Leader: Contreras

ERA Leader:   Woodruff and Peralta will both be sub 2.60

SO Leader:  Burnes

WAR Leader:   Contreras 

Breakout(s): Urias, Yelich,  Peralta will solidify himself as one of the leagues top pitchers along with Woodruff and Burnes  

Disappointment(s):  Lauer, BP will take some beatings.  Adames will struggle due to not knowing his future and putting too much stress upon himself.

Bold Prediction (s):  Yelich will win Comeback Player of the Year award.

Mitchell will be a 20/20 player.

Turang will solidify himself as the teams 2B.  Will have a .340 OBP and will have 80+ Runs due to the top of the order  

Record: 90-72

Playoffs?  Yes.  Just get in and with our pitching…anything can happen    Let’s goooo!  

90 wins would be fantastic, as I think that probably takes the division and it certainly earns a Wild Card berth.

[BruisedCrew]

I'm going to skip the individual categories and just make my comments on the overall record.

I am relatively bearish on the Brewers because it's hard for me to see how, at least on paper, the team is better than the team that played .500 ball for the last 5 months of the 2022 season. Compared to other teams that are considered playoff contenders they seem to have more question marks.

I also think the schedule will be tougher this year as the new schedule doesn't offer as many games as the Brewers had last year against the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs (who still won the season series and should be improved this year).

To be a contender a lot of things have to go right, including injury free seasons from the top pitchers. With Ashby and Houser starting the season on the IL, that hope is already off to a bad start.

I also think the bullpen is not going to be the asset that it has been when the Brewers were most successful. The duo of Williams and Hader was a huge asset, and that no longer exists. Williams might be fine in the closer role, but there are a lot of question marks in the setup role.

Like last year, I expect the Brewers to be middle of the pack in MLB in offense, and I don't think the pitching will be dominant enough to carry that offense to the playoffs. 

So, my bottom line prediction is 82-80 and fighting with the Cubs for second place in the division. No playoffs.

 

[Brewin]

MVP:  Yelich

CY Young: Burnes

Rookie of the Year: Turang

BA Leader:  Yelich  .305

HR Leader: Tellez

ERA Leader:   Burnes 2.45

SO Leader:  Burnes

WAR Leader:   Burnes 

Breakout(s): Turang  

Disappointment(s):  Mitchell, and Adames 

Bold Prediction (s):  Yelich finishes in top 10 for NL MVP, Burnes wins 2nd Cy Young

Record: 92-70 (1st in NLC by 4G over STL)

Playoffs?  Yes.  - Lose in NLCS to SD 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

MVP: Christian Yelich - we won't quite see the 2018-19 version of Yelich, but the 2023 version will be much improved. 25-30 HRs, 30 SB, .280-.300 BA, and an OPS approaching .900.

CY Young: Eric Lauer - I've always been bullish on the guy. This is the year that Lauer makes the jump to a top-flight MLB starter. 

Rookie of the Year: Joey Wiemer. He is going to mash in Nashville, and won't be down for long. Will be the regular RF once up, and isn't going to give that role back for awhile.

BA Leader: Luis Urias (.310). Shot in the dark, and maybe overly optimistic, but I've always liked him too.

HR Leader: Jesse Winker (40)

ERA Leader: Eric Lauer (2.24)

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes (230)

WAR Leader: Yelich (5.9)

Breakout(s): Luis Urias, Eric Lauer, Wiemer, Gus Varland

Disappointment(s): Garrett Mitchell is going to be electric when in the lineup, but he's going to struggle to stay healthy. Brian Anderson is replacement level, and also struggles with injuries.

Bold Prediction (s): The Brewers make a big swing at the deadline, acquiring a resurgent Anthony Rendon from the Angels to shore up 3B.  

Record: 92-70

Playoffs? Yes, win the NL Central easily. Rest of the division is going to suck, as the Cardinals come back down to earth after overachieving last year, and the Cubs and Reds and Pirates scrape the bottom of the NL barrell. Brewers make it to the World Series. Not going any further than that.

[owbc]

MVP:  Adames

CY Young: Woodruff

Rookie of the Year: Mitchell

BA Leader:  Yelich

HR Leader: Adames

ERA Leader:  Woodruff

SO Leader:  Woodruff

WAR Leader:  Adames 

Breakout(s): Mitchell

Disappointment(s):  Winker, the bullpen as a whole

Bold Prediction (s): Burnes traded at deadline. Urias is primed for a big year. 

Record: 86 wins

Playoffs? No. 2nd place but no wild card. Lack of pitching depth sinks us and we don't have the firepower to outhit the Cards. 

[DR28]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

MVP: Christian Yelich - we won't quite see the 2018-19 version of Yelich, but the 2023 version will be much improved. 25-30 HRs, 30 SB, .280-.300 BA, and an OPS approaching .900.

CY Young: Eric Lauer - I've always been bullish on the guy. This is the year that Lauer makes the jump to a top-flight MLB starter. 

Rookie of the Year: Joey Wiemer. He is going to mash in Nashville, and won't be down for long. Will be the regular RF once up, and isn't going to give that role back for awhile.

BA Leader: Luis Urias (.310). Shot in the dark, and maybe overly optimistic, but I've always liked him too.

HR Leader: Jesse Winker (40)

ERA Leader: Eric Lauer (2.24)

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes (230)

WAR Leader: Yelich (5.9)

Breakout(s): Luis Urias, Eric Lauer, Wiemer, Gus Varland

Disappointment(s): Garrett Mitchell is going to be electric when in the lineup, but he's going to struggle to stay healthy. Brian Anderson is replacement level, and also struggles with injuries.

Bold Prediction (s): The Brewers make a big swing at the deadline, acquiring a resurgent Anthony Rendon from the Angels to shore up 3B.  

Record: 92-70

Playoffs? Yes, win the NL Central easily. Rest of the division is going to suck, as the Cardinals come back down to earth after overachieving last year, and the Cubs and Reds and Pirates scrape the bottom of the NL barrell. Brewers make it to the World Series. Not going any further than that.

I would love to acquire Rendon for 3B!

[YodaDaSoda]

MVP: Corbin Burnes

CY Young: Corbin Burnes

Rookie of the Year: Sal Frelick/Garrett Mitchell

BA Leader: Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell (.303) [They end up tying, though Sal Frelick plays considerably less games and has less at bats]

HR Leader: Rowdy Tellez (42)

ERA Leader: Corbin Burnes (2.58)

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes (242)

WAR Leader: Corbin Burnes (5.7)

Breakout(s): Abner Uribe, Gus Varland, Christian Yelich (Yelich has a bounceback, hitting .270 with 25+ homers)

Disappointment(s): Eric Lauer, Luis Urias, Tyrone Taylor

Bold Prediction (s): All 5 "Freshmen" debut at some point during the year (I know Mitchell debuted last year) and are each in the top 10 for ROTY except for Chourio who debuts in late September and will still qualify for next year

Record: 93-69

Playoffs? Yes, Division Winner. Lose NLCS in 6 to Padres

[duewizard]

MVP: Willy Adames

CY Young: Corbin Burnes

Rookie of the Year: Garrett Mitchell

BA Leader: Sal Frelick .300 but does not qualify

HR Leader: Rowdt Tellez 36HR

ERA Leader: Burnes for SP. Williams for everyone 50 IP+

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes 230+

WAR Leader: Willy Adames 5-6

Breakout(s): Frelick, Mitchell, Varland, Urías

Disappointment(s): Winker, Contreras, Ashby (injuries)

Bold Prediction (s): Yelich is a lot better. Not 18-19 but hits 20+ HR. We trade one of the big 3 at the deadline.

Record: 88-74

Playoffs? Yes, Wildcard, lose to Braves in NLDS

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, duewizard said:

MVP: Willy Adames

CY Young: Corbin Burnes

Rookie of the Year: Garrett Mitchell

BA Leader: Sal Frelick .300 but does not qualify

HR Leader: Rowdt Tellez 36HR

ERA Leader: Burnes for SP. Williams for everyone 50 IP+

SO Leader: Corbin Burnes 230+

WAR Leader: Willy Adames 5-6

Breakout(s): Frelick, Mitchell, Varland, Urías

Disappointment(s): Winker, Contreras, Ashby (injuries)

Bold Prediction (s): Yelich is a lot better. Not 18-19 but hits 20+ HR. We trade one of the big 3 at the deadline.

Record: 88-74

Playoffs? Yes, Wildcard, lose to Braves in NLDS

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Slow start...frustrating bullpen...no significant trades made prior to deadline...young talent flashes late...playoffs missed...another year of what ifs...offseason firesale...team put up for sale.

[nate82]

10 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What a strange simulated year for Corbin Burnes.

Yeah he had a near 6 ERA coming into the All Star break.  The main drivers in that sim for his weird year were the home runs and increased walks.  The sim also doesn't really like Frelick at all he only hit .250/.330/.300 in AAA which I think that would be a really down year for him.  The sim also really dislikes Yelich having hit near .225 with no power and just a bit better than league average in OBP.  The sim loved Winker, Tellez, Contreras and Mitchell.  Adames had a similar season as he had in 2022. 

The sim also predicted the Brewers trading Urias to the Roayls for Barlow and prospects,  Wade Miley to the Giants for Joc Pederson and a couple of prospects and Hiura to the Rockies for McMahon, Blackmon and $4m.  I am not sure OOTP's trades are all that realistic to be honest. 

[Brewcrew82]

I’ll also add to my bold predictions that I think that, of the 6 NL playoff teams from last year,  the Brewers will end up taking the Dodgers spot in the postseason. Dodgers are in some real trouble imo with the Lux injury and the players they lost in the off-season. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Predictions. Well

93-69 1st in division.

MVP Woodruff but Mitchell gets votes towards it.

We're in for a great season that will make the 2023-24 offseason difficult to navigate.

 

[AKCheesehead]

MVP: Co MVPs Adames and Urias

CY: Woodruff

ROY: Frelick

BA Leader: Yelich

HR Leader: Rowdy

ERA Leader: Woodruff

K Leader: Burnes

WAR Leader: Woodruff

Breakouts: Frelick, Varland, Uribe, Weimer

Disappointments: Houser, Contreras, Bush, Anderson

Bold predictions: Woodruff in top 5 for NL CY, receives MVP votes as well. Bullpen scuffles early, becomes a force in 2nd half.

Record: 89-73

Playoffs:  Yes, win the central, get hot, make it to WS with a little help from our enemies.  Champions.

[MDCrew]

MVP:  Yelich

CY Young: Woodruff 

Rookie of the Year: Mitchell 

BA Leader:  Yelich  .299, Mitchell 2.95

HR Leader: Tellez (33), Urias (30)

ERA Leader:   Woodruff 2.48

SO Leader:  Burnes

WAR Leader:   Woodruff 

Breakout(s): Mitchell, Varland, Urias

Disappointment(s):  Ashby, Adames, Bush

Bold Prediction (s):  Varland becomes key contributor to BP, Yelich hits 25 HRs and the Crew lead the NL in HRs. 

Record: 84-78

Playoffs?  No - Crew gets off to a slow start in April / most of May. Gets hot June - August, but lose 5 of last 7 to STL finishing 2 games back missing out on Division and WC. 

[GreatNWwi]

22 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

I also think the schedule will be tougher this year as the new schedule doesn't offer as many games as the Brewers had last year against the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs (who still won the season series and should be improved this year).

 

 

I see this sentiment a lot.  Those lost Pirates, Reds and Cubs games are replaced with the likes of Tigers, Royals, Rangers and Athletics among others.  

If the schedule is tougher it will be because the American League East could be solid top to bottom.  The rest of the divisions are pretty much a wash.