NL Central Discussion

[StearnsFTW]

49 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yes, Wheeler and Nola are every bit as good a Burnes and Woodruff, and the Phillies have a  better hitter at almost every position. 

Even though the Brewers beat both of those pitchers less than a week ago.

 

Makes total sense.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 hours ago, brewers888 said:

My advice is to start scoreboard watching the other wild card contenders because that is probably our best shot at making the playoffs. The run differential numbers all season have told us that this is not a great team and probably closer to a mid 80s win team than one than wins over 90. The most likely scenario for this team is the second wild card and a matchup with the Phillies who will hopefully give away a game or two with their awful fundamentals.

So you are ready to hand the division to the Cubs, despite a 3 game lead with 25 to play? 

The Brewers had a huge hot streak that ended roughly a week ago. The Cubs are essentially on a heater right now. It's the ebb and flow of late-season baseball. The Brewers would probably have to go ice cold to not at least be neck-and-neck with the Cubs going into the final week.

[Underachiever]

3 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Because of the tiebreaker situation, the real target for the Brewers will be to get to 4 games ahead of the Cubs before the final series. Being ahead by 3 games would be the functional equivalent of being up by 2 games, just like being ahead by 1 game would be the same as being tied or behind by 1 game. 

Brewers-Cubs are 5-5 on the season. If the Brewers were up by three games, they would only need one of the three to win the division. Same if they were up 2. Only a Cubs' sweep is a problem. The problem begins if they were up one game. Then it becomes winner-take-all in the three-game set.

Unless I am not understanding you, which is very possible. Or if your scenario is assuming a Cubs sweep.

I have tickets for 9/30. I would be really happy if it were decided by then. I do have a cardiac history.

[Brewin]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Yes, Wheeler and Nola are every bit as good a Burnes and Woodruff, and the Phillies have a  better hitter at almost every position. 

It certainly possible, but not likely IMO. They already have won both series against the Phillies this year, including beating Nola just this past weekend

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Even though the Brewers beat both of those pitchers less than a week ago.

 

Makes total sense.

I'm not really sure what your point is here though. A single series is a tiny sample size where any result would not be surpising. The Brewers could sweep, the Phillies could sweep, or anything in between. It's reasonable to point out that they also have 2 good pitchers and a MUCH better offense.

Of course the Brewers won already, but just like someone could lose 2 football games in the regular season to a team but beat them in the playoffs, it's entirely possible that the Brewers could lose to the Phillies, so we don't need to act like any side of this argument is inconceivable.

[Sixtolezcano]

Buckle up only 23 games left in the season. Even though we don’t know how it will end it has been a successful season for our team. There hopefully will be many more “thrills and chills” left and may the best team win.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Even though the Brewers beat both of those pitchers less than a week ago.

 

Makes total sense.

Dont bother to look at the career stats of those two pitchers especially against Milwaukee. Instead only consider what happened in the regular season a week ago and draw conclusion based on that… Makes total sense 🙄

[Brewcrew82]

Mod edit: send a mod a PM if you have an issue. Don't further derail the thread by responding. Thanks.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Yes, Wheeler and Nola are every bit as good a Burnes and Woodruff, and the Phillies have a  better hitter at almost every position. 

Yes because the season series doesn’t indicate anything. Or the fact that the Phillies’ defense gives away almost as many runs as they score. Or their porous bullpen.

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yes because the season series doesn’t indicate anything. Or the fact that the Phillies’ defense gives away almost as many runs as they score. Or their porous bullpen.

Don’t know what to tell you, those 2 guys have been terrific against the Brewers. Wheeler with a sub 2.70 era 1.16 whip and averaging over 6 innings per start against the Brewers lifetime. Nola averages 6 innings a start against Milwaukee, has a career whip against the Brewers of 1.20 and is 6-2 against them. Both average over 10k per 9 against the Brewers.
 

Gotta  hit the ball against those two to even get to the bullpen, or put pressure on their defense; they’re lifetime numbers suggest the Brewers don’t do it very well against them. 

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t know what to tell you, those 2 guys have been terrific against the Brewers. Wheeler with a sub 2.70 era 1.16 whip and averaging over 6 innings per start against the Brewers lifetime. Nola averages 6 innings a start against Milwaukee, has a career whip against the Brewers of 1.20 and is 6-2 against them. Both average over 10k per 9 against the Brewers.
 

Gotta  hit the ball against those two to even get to the bullpen, or put pressure on their defense; they’re lifetime numbers suggest the Brewers don’t do it very well against them. 

Except the Brewers hit them both just a week ago....

A sweep by the Phillies is not mathematically likely, anyway you put it. 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Brewers-Cubs are 5-5 on the season. If the Brewers were up by three games, they would only need one of the three to win the division. Same if they were up 2. Only a Cubs' sweep is a problem. The problem begins if they were up one game. Then it becomes winner-take-all in the three-game set.

Unless I am not understanding you, which is very possible. Or if your scenario is assuming a Cubs sweep.

I have tickets for 9/30. I would be really happy if it were decided by then. I do have a cardiac history.

I think we are saying the same thing. Let me put it this way:

If going into the final series the Brewers are ahead by 2 games or 3 games, the Cubs would have to sweep the series to take the division.

If going into the final series the Brewers are ahead by one game, the teams are tied, or the Cubs are ahead by one game, the winner of the series will win the division. 

If going into the series the Cubs lead by 2 or 3 games, the Brewers would have to sweep the series to win the division.

That’s why I set a 4 game lead going into that series. 
 

Being ahead by 3 games going into series is basically the same as being ahead by 2 games. 
 

Being ahead or behind by 1 game going into the series are both basically the same as being tied. 

But clearly, being ahead by 2 or 3 games would be better than being ahead by 1 game. 
 

 

[BruisedCrew]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except the Brewers hit them both just a week ago....

A sweep by the Phillies is not mathematically likely, anyway you put it. 

Just because someone’s opinion reflects something that is not mathematically likely doesn’t make it “nonsense”. It just might be something that you could disagree with (respectfully, if possible). 

[Jopal78]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except the Brewers hit them both just a week ago....

A sweep by the Phillies is not mathematically likely, anyway you put it. 

Since 2020 only 3 of the 12 Wild Card series have NOT been sweeps. It’s not really debatable the Phillies have more overall talent on their roster than the Brewers.

Nonetheless, you seem pretty convinced despite all the contrary evidence, so keep on believin’ then I suppose.

 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Just because someone’s opinion reflects something that is not mathematically likely doesn’t make it “nonsense”. It just might be something that you could disagree with (respectfully, if possible). 

Nonsense=devoid of logic/sense. When people make blanket overly negative statements like that which don't have much of a factual basis, it's a word which is justified. 

[StearnsFTW]

4 hours ago, Team Canada said:

I'm not really sure what your point is here though. A single series is a tiny sample size where any result would not be surpising. The Brewers could sweep, the Phillies could sweep, or anything in between. It's reasonable to point out that they also have 2 good pitchers and a MUCH better offense.

Of course the Brewers won already, but just like someone could lose 2 football games in the regular season to a team but beat them in the playoffs, it's entirely possible that the Brewers could lose to the Phillies, so we don't need to act like any side of this argument is inconceivable.

He said he expected the Phillies to sweep in a theoretical series and then used those 2 pitchers as evidence.

 

Pretty simple.

[StearnsFTW]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Dont bother to look at the career stats of those two pitchers especially against Milwaukee. Instead only consider what happened in the regular season a week ago and draw conclusion based on that… Makes total sense 🙄

You expect the Phillies to sweep the Brewers and use those 2 pitchers as evidence.

 

And I'm getting the eyeroll.  Keep up the schtick dude.  Just don't ever let facts get in the way.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Nonsense=devoid of logic/sense. When people make blanket overly negative statements like that which don't have much of a factual basis, it's a word which is justified. 

Here’s some facts for you:

The Brewers beat Aaron Nola on September 7th 2021, they didn’t beat him again until two calendar years later. During that stretch he made 4 starts against Milwaukee went 28 1/3 innings, allowed 15 hits, 3 walks, and had 31 strike outs, and allowed 6ER.

Since 2021 Wheeler has made 4 starts against Milwaukee. He went 26 innings, allowed 17H 0BB 24K and allowed 7ER. Those numbers include his defeat by Milwaukee last week.

Simply stated Nola is a Brewer killer, there isn’t a team I would want to face less in a 3 game elimination series than the Phillies with Nola in Game 1.

While the Brewers have had more success against Wheeler relatively speaking even with his most recent loss he still has a Sub-1.00 WHIP against Milwaukee since April 2021.
 

It’s not pessimism or nonsense, those two guys a very good pitchers and in particular have pitched very well against the Brewers the last few seasons. The Brewers would be better off against almost any other team in a best 2 out of 3 series.

 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Here’s some facts for you:

The Brewers beat Aaron Nola on September 7th 2021, they didn’t beat him again until two calendar years later. During that stretch he made 4 starts against Milwaukee went 28 1/3 innings, allowed 15 hits, 3 walks, and had 31 strike outs, and allowed 6ER.

Since 2021 Wheeler has made 4 starts against Milwaukee. He went 26 innings, allowed 17H 0BB 24K and allowed 7ER. Those numbers include his defeat by Milwaukee last week.

Simply stated Nola is a Brewer killer, there isn’t a team I would want to face less in a 3 game elimination series than the Phillies with Nola in Game 1.

While the Brewers have had more success against Wheeler relatively speaking even with his most recent loss he still has a Sub-1.00 WHIP against Milwaukee since April 2021.
 

It’s not pessimism or nonsense, those two guys a very good pitchers and in particular have pitched very well against the Brewers the last few seasons. The Brewers would be better off against almost any other team in a best 2 out of 3 series.

 

It's not like the Brewers don't have just as good pitchers, though. And a far better bullpen. And a far better defense. Canceling the Phillies' offensive advantage, as reflected in their identical records and the Brewers 4-2 season series advantage.

I think @StearnsFTWput it best, "keep it up".

[tmwiese55]

And the red hot Cubs lose two straight to the floundering D-Backs, this is baseball.  I assume the sky is falling on Cubs boards now too.          Scratch out a win tonight and back to a 3 game lead with 22 games left. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Alright, you two are fairly convinced in your homerism, facts and large samples be damned, so have fun with that. 

Everyone that disagrees with my contrarian takes=homerism lol

What matters most by far is this year. But you’re completely ignoring that unsurprisingly.

[Jopal78]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Everyone that disagrees with my contrarian takes=homerism lol

What matters most by far is this year. But you’re completely ignoring that unsurprisingly.

Yep, six regular season games tell us all we need to know. With Monasterio’s 1.000 OPS in those six games they better be batting him cleanup!  But it’s okay if it makes you feel better from being unable  to see the big picture please continue to call me a contrarian. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep, six regular season games tell us all we need to know. With Monasterio’s 1.000 OPS in those six games they better be batting him cleanup!  But it’s okay if it makes you feel better from being unable  to see the big picture please continue to call me a contrarian. 

Totally not what I’ve been saying, but go on with your straw man.

[StearnsFTW]

5 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

And the red hot Cubs lose two straight to the floundering D-Backs, this is baseball.  I assume the sky is falling on Cubs boards now too.          Scratch out a win tonight and back to a 3 game lead with 22 games left. 

Or beat the hell out of a bad team and continue to demonstrate that you're the best team in the division despite the naysayers on (incredibly) a Brewers fan board.

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t know what to tell you, those 2 guys have been terrific against the Brewers. Wheeler with a sub 2.70 era 1.16 whip and averaging over 6 innings per start against the Brewers lifetime. Nola averages 6 innings a start against Milwaukee, has a career whip against the Brewers of 1.20 and is 6-2 against them. Both average over 10k per 9 against the Brewers.
 

Gotta  hit the ball against those two to even get to the bullpen, or put pressure on their defense; they’re lifetime numbers suggest the Brewers don’t do it very well against them. 

Career vs. PHI:

Burnes: 0.55 ERA, 0.796 WHIP, 13.2 K/9, 4.00 K/BB

Woodruff: 1.76 ERA, 0.783 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 3.50 K/BB

Peralta: 4.01 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, 6.00 K/BB

The Phillies lifetime numbers versus them suggests they don't do very well against the Brewers.