Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[rickh150]

On 11/30/2023 at 2:30 AM, BrewerFan said:

Is this a serious comment? There have been threads for a YEAR now about the Brewers locking up the CF phenom whose statistical comparisons for age/level are guys like Griffey, Soto, and few others, the ELITE of the elite prospects. 

In the hypothetical, "your off-season," which started about halfway through the season I said I'd try and trade Yelich and sign Chourio(while explicitly stating I didn't think it would actually happen).

That's JUST me. I know Brewcrew82 has advocated it and...probably 20 different people have talked about this as it's such an easy call. 

4 players with 20/40 seasons as teenagers in the minors since 1960. Two of them at A-ball. Acuna Jr and Andruw Jones. 

 

 

Suggesting people haven't been talking about this for months(or actually quite a bit longer)...is just not remotely true.

Never was a popular topic here, come now,…just a side. And the topic of signing him before a single MLB at bat was off the radar for about all of us.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[bigred]

On 11/30/2023 at 8:24 PM, JefferyLeonard said:

No what's nonsensical is you not understanding...Take your pick..one Chapman or Hoskins you sign for 3 yrs 48 Million, the other 2 yrs 32 million. Boom, done. $80 million and now you have two very good bats for a minimum of two years oh and by the way, you still have Chourio. This isn't hard people. You all want it to be, but it's easy peasey. I just showed you how it's done. Any questions? 

Oh and for the record, I will put this out there right now..I will GUARANTEE you they don't sign anyone for more than 2 years plus maybe an option for about 10-12 million per year. That will be their biggest contract this offseason. Not a chance in hell they sign Chapman and Hoskins or either one. They aren't bold enough(or frankly smart enough) to sign two guys like that who also fill their two biggest needs. 

Be honest. You're hoping Attanasio reads this, and thinks "Oh yeah? You guarantee I won't sign either of them? Well watch this!" Using reverse psychology on him, so he'll sign them. 🤣

[sveumrules]

Over the last 70 years there have been 47 players who got at least 400 MLB PAs in their Age 20 season.

Maybe they can offer some insight into what realistic expectations might be for Chourio?

First lets start with that ZiPS projection mentioned up thread...

605 PA of 256/299/401 (91 OPS+) with 17 HR / 35 SB and 1.4 WAR

Steamer comes in at 525 PA of 253/304/416 (93 wRC+) with 17 HR / 16 SB and 1.4 WAR.

Both projections have conservative defensive projections around plus one, if he actually comes in closer to plus ten that would bump him up another win or so.

So which past MLB 20 year old came in closest to that range?

Looking at the list, probably Cesar Cedeno at 649 PA of 264/293/398 (94 wRC+) with 10 HR / 20 SB and 1.3 WAR. Over his Age 20 to 27 seasons he ended up with a 133 OPS+ and 40.4 WAR, throw in ages 28/29 and he totaled 47.5 WAR before hitting age 30. I think we'd all be happy with that kind of outcome for Jackson.

For Chourio's minor league career he has hit 286/347/490, in his Age 20 season Carlos Correa hit 279/345/512 and totaled 3.4 WAR over only 432 PAs. If Jackson put up something like that over 550 PA you start pushing that 4.5 to 5.0 WAR territory depending how the defense shakes out. That would presumably be something like what he needs to do to put himself in the ROY conversation.

Ideally, Chourio will come out of the gate smoking and not look back, but that is a low probability outcome. Odds are, he will likely struggle to some extent for some time before making adjustments to MLB pitching and improving his production as he matures into literal actual adulthood. 

And that's OK. Even guys at the bottom of the Age 20 leaderboard like Roberto Clemente (72 wRC+ | -0.9 WAR), Gary Sheffield (82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR), Vlad Junior (106 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR), Robin Yount (72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR), and even Hank Aaron (103 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR) himself weren't instant stars before legal drinking age either.

Going back to that Age 20 leaderboard one last time, I think Jackson will beat his projections, but still fall short of his minor league batting line so I will go with something around what Adrian Beltre did with 614 PA of 275/352/428 (100 wRC+) and 15 HR / 18 SB shaking out to 3.4 WAR.

[Fear The Chorizo]

32 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Over the last 50 years there have been 47 players who got at least 400 MLB PAs in their Age 20 season.

Maybe they can offer some insight into what realistic expectations might be for Chourio?

First lets start with that ZiPS projection mentioned up thread...

605 PA of 256/299/401 (91 OPS+) with 17 HR / 35 SB and 1.4 WAR

Steamer comes in at 525 PA of 253/304/416 (93 wRC+) with 17 HR / 16 SB and 1.4 WAR.

Both projections have conservative defensive projections around plus one, if he actually comes in closer to plus ten that would bump him up another win or so.

So which past MLB 20 year old came in closest to that range?

Looking at the list, probably Cesar Cedeno at 649 PA of 264/293/398 (94 wRC+) with 10 HR / 20 SB and 1.3 WAR. Over his Age 20 to 27 seasons he ended up with a 133 OPS+ and 40.4 WAR, throw in ages 28/29 and he totaled 47.5 WAR before hitting age 30. I think we'd all be happy with that kind of outcome for Jackson.

For Chourio's minor league career he has hit 286/347/490, in his Age 20 season Carlos Correa hit 279/345/512 and totaled 3.4 WAR over only 432 PAs. If Jackson put up something like that over 550 PA you start pushing that 4.5 to 5.0 WAR territory depending how the defense shakes out. That would presumably be something like what he needs to do to put himself in the ROY conversation.

Ideally, Chourio will come out of the gate smoking and not look back, but that is a low probability outcome. Odds are, he will likely struggle to some extent for some time before making adjustments to MLB pitching and improving his production as he matures into literal actual adulthood. 

And that's OK. Even guys at the bottom of the Age 20 leaderboard like Roberto Clemente (72 wRC+ | -0.9 WAR), Gary Sheffield (82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR), Vlad Junior (106 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR), Robin Yount (72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR), and even Hank Aaron (103 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR) himself weren't instant stars before legal drinking age either.

Going back to that Age 20 leaderboard one last time, I think Jackson will beat his projections, but still fall short of his minor league batting line so I will go with something around what Adrian Beltre did with 614 PA of 275/352/428 (100 wRC+) and 15 HR / 18 SB shaking out to 3.4 WAR.

Just read the names of the players listed in this post...I'd be just fine with chourio replicating any of their careers, to be honest!

[torts]

27 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Just read the names of the players listed in this post...I'd be just fine with chourio replicating any of their careers, to be honest!

Came to say the same thing!  

[82brewcrew82]

20 hours ago, umphrey said:

Well I wasn’t to this into a Chourio bashing thread but he only had a 112 wRC+ in AA last year and I don’t buy into the notion of young guys always get better as they age quite as much as others do. So he felt like more of a top 10 or 20 MLB prospect to me as opposed to the top 2 or 3 most people call him. 112 wRC+ is kind of weak for the best prospect in baseball who didn’t really play in AAA. 

How often did you watch him play?

[wiguy94]

8 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Never compared player type or futures of Hiura with Chourio…if insulting, get it right.  I compared Brewers lack of interest in promoting Hiura based on quality stats in AAA/MLB in 2022/2023 at obvious need positions (DH/1B) with eagerness of Brewers to give 19 year old ultra big bucks without a MLB at bat.
Just showing two Brewers approaches for two different players and that I disagree with both. 

Because teams look at more than just stats when it comes to evaluating minor league players. 

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Because teams look at more than just stats when it comes to evaluating minor league players. 

Agreed

 

[BrewerFan]

12 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Never was a popular topic here, come now,…just a side. And the topic of signing him before a single MLB at bat was off the radar for about all of us.

The hell it wasn't. This was a huge topic of conversation.

I probably posted about it...25-30 times and that was hardly rare. That was easily the consensus. Sign Chourio to a long-term deal. It's in pretty much everything. The "your off-season thread," threads about Yelich. It was a regular topic on here. 

I'll take your word for it that you didn't see it...somehow, but take mine that we absolutely were talking about it and hoping for it(and this exceeds expectations). 

[markedman5]

 

[rickh150]

So if Chourio is just awful in April and May, we are stuck with him in MLB? More probable than possible with a 20 year old, considering he struggled the first half of the season last year in the ultra easy AAA where anyone can hit well. Are there any minor leagues options for him anymore with this contract? I figure not.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So if Chourio is just awful in April and May, we are stuck with him in MLB? More probable than possible with a 20 year old, considering he struggled the first half of the season last year in the ultra easy AAA where anyone can hit well. Are there any minor leagues options for him anymore with this contract? I figure not.

Lol. Tell me you don't know what you're talking about without telling me you don't know what you're talking about. 

[markedman5]

5 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So if Chourio is just awful in April and May, we are stuck with him in MLB? More probable than possible with a 20 year old, considering he struggled the first half of the season last year in the ultra easy AAA where anyone can hit well. Are there any minor leagues options for him anymore with this contract? I figure not.

Yes…….he doesn’t lose them just because he signs an extension. 
 

He struggled early on last season in AA with a pretacked baseball…….lets not forget that.

Let’s relax a little

 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So if Chourio is just awful in April and May, we are stuck with him in MLB? More probable than possible with a 20 year old, considering he struggled the first half of the season last year in the ultra easy AAA where anyone can hit well. Are there any minor leagues options for him anymore with this contract? I figure not.

1. Chourio played almost all year in AA and the first half of the year had enhanced grip baseballs that made pitchers stuff nastier. 

2. Every player starts with 3 options when they are put on the 40-man roster. Just because Chourio signed a contract doesn't mean he couldn't be optioned.

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

1. Chourio played almost all year in AA and the first half of the year had enhanced grip baseballs that made pitchers stuff nastier. 

2. Every player starts with 3 options when they are put on the 40-man roster. Just because Chourio signed a contract doesn't mean he couldn't be optioned.

Forgot about the AA part…apologies.

[BallFour]

All the complaints about not spending money and now they show initiative with a 19 year old and now a segment of the fanbase is going to complain it is too risky? It would be the same fans crying 2 years from now about how poor the Brewers are because they can't lock up Chourio. Just wait till he grows into his frame, he is not a finished product by any means strength wise. 

[MVP2110]

 

 

[Matt Breen]

I have no clue if this is a good idea or not. I don't know enough about assessing young players really know what's best. But I'll just say that I'd rather have 8 years of Jackson at $80m than a mid-30's pitcher - such as Sonny Gray - for the same amount. 

Huge risk, but huge reward. People are pointing to the Braves locking up of players. The key is identifying the right players to lock up. Let's hope we can do as good as they have done.

[RedStickBrew]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Forgot about the AA part…apologies.

I would also add that the AA Southern league is a pretty tough hitters league too. It’s not easy to OPS over .800 for the year there which Jackson Chourio did as a 19 year old. I think he will go through the ups and downs like any rookie but this will end up being a good deal for the Brewers

[nate82]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

So if Chourio is just awful in April and May, we are stuck with him in MLB? More probable than possible with a 20 year old, considering he struggled the first half of the season last year in the ultra easy AAA where anyone can hit well. Are there any minor leagues options for him anymore with this contract? I figure not.

Sure but this player did this in their age 21 season in MLB maybe the Brewers should have sent him down because he sucked that year and definitely wouldn't have become a HoF player nope not even possible. 

[wibadgers23]

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

happy to see this get done!

[39Streak]

I am just a lurker here, and really enjoy Brewers content from the site and the visitors.

I just wanted to go on record to say that whether this deal works out or not, I am all in.  With Milwaukee, you have to take risks that others do not have to take.  Braun extensions, Yelich extension, this one.  I love it.  This is getting in the batters box and taking a swing management speaking.  
 

I like the idea of running it back with Burnes, Freddy, Miley and others.  That relies on a hope of some combo of Turang, Frelick, Mitchell, Weimer and Churio having impact this season.  It’s another bite at the Apple that we have seen other fringe teams deliver on including Arizona and the Nats.

LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, 39Streak said:

I am just a lurker here, and really enjoy Brewers content from the site and the visitors.

I just wanted to go on record to say that whether this deal works out or not, I am all in.  With Milwaukee, you have to take risks that others do not have to take.  Braun extensions, Yelich extension, this one.  I love it.  This is getting in the batters box and taking a swing management speaking.  

I like the idea of running it back with Burnes, Freddy, Miley and others.  That relies on a hope of some combo of Turang, Frelick, Mitchell, Weimer and Churio having impact this season.  It’s another bite at the Apple that we have seen other fringe teams deliver on including Arizona and the Nats.

LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!

Welcome out of the shadows!