Wild Card Game: Packers @ Cowboys - Sunday, Jan 14 3:30pm

[homer]

Line opens GB +7

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Thrilled there's a playoff line with Green Bay in it for next weekend, no matter what the spread!

 

I don't think the Cowboys have lost all season at home (although the Lions probably had them without that penalty call) - so this is going to be tough sledding.  If the defense can find a way to get off the field a couple times a half without giving up scores and create a turnover I think the Packers have a shot.  You know McCarthy's going to be jazzed up for this one, and hopefully he gets too cute with his game plan - if the Cowboys' offense just lines up with power running and play action to the middle of the field it could be a loooong day.

[kestrel79]

I have a feeling the refs will be on the Cowboy's side all game if it is indeed close. Gonna be a tough one, but this team does play well against good teams who knows!

[RedStickBrew]

Another memory from this matchup

[homer]

Most efficient two QBs in the league the last 9 weeks going head to head.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly, I think this is a pretty nightmare match-up. Our defense has a lot of bend, but don't break in them, but Dallas isn't Chicago. We aren't going to get bailed out by half a dozen sacks against a trash team. That just isn't likely to happen against the Cowboys. The Cowboys light up the scoreboard at home...we are going to have to pray their tamer scoring of late can continue and it wasn't more indicative being on the road. Because as great as Love has been, I don't think he is going to go 2009 Rodgers and lead them to almost 50 points if it becomes a shootout. 

The Cowboys are the #1 offense in football...I believe we only faced three of the Top 15 offenses all year. Detroit at #5, New Orleans at #9, and Kansas City at #15. Yes, I am leaving out the LA Rams who started a rando at QB when we faced them. Of those 4 games, we benefited by being the home team in 3/4.

We need to dominate the trenches to have a chance. On our side to eat clock and reduce possessions and on their side to make sure their pretty awful rushing attack is exactly that. Pollard barely cracked 4.0 a carry...if he starts running all over us their offense is probably going to light us up like a Christmas tree. 

Something tells me we get handily creamed 38-20...but we certainly have a good enough team to win if we are efficient on offense and maybe get a timely turnover too.

[homer]

The Dallas D is pretty pedestrian. GB should be able to move the ball. But yeah we will need to burn the clock and reduce the # of possessions. 

[OldHeidelberg]

It doesn’t sound like Watson is likely to play this week, MLF admitted it was a bit of gamesmanship on his part and they really didn’t expect him to play Sunday.  Hopefully he is just doing the opposite this week and he will surprise us and play.

[thebruce44]

[yourout]

Going to need some help from the cowboys as in at least two turnovers to win.

[BrewerFan]

42 minutes ago, yourout said:

Going to need some help from the cowboys as in at least two turnovers to win.

Yeah, that's not encouraging given we had 7 picks all year. Rasul Douglas had 4 picks with the Bills.

 

Man, what a night and day difference from when we traded him. Did anyone even blink at that? Think "Why the hell are we trading away our big-play threat on defense," at the time? I didn't think it was crazy in the least.

I don't think this game is as out of reach as others do. The Cowboys won't have Tyler Smith...he's a budding superstar on the OL. Zach Martin, a HOF is questionable. I'd assume he plays. Tyron Smith is healthy, but I don't mind our matchup there.

Parson's lines up on the left side of that defense most of the time...so Parsons vs Tom is a pretty good matchup(insofar as anyone matches up well vs Parsons). 

Ultimately though, this is kinda like that Packers-Cardinals game. I don't expect 90+ points to be scored, but that season showed us Rodgers was the guy without any doubt, he played well in the playoffs and we got invaluable experience. 

 

We're playing with house money. 7th seed, probably not a playoff team most years, almost ALL 1st and 2nd-year players on offense. Guys like Bo Melton are balling out. What the hell...maybe we pull it out. And if not, we go into the off-season with a clear idea of what we need to address. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Packers have already won the season. Even if they were to win they'd get absolutely manhandled the following week.  I'll be happy if they compete, but I do think it's possible for them to play spoiler. It will be fun to see how Love plays. 

Unfortunately I won't see it live. Coaching wrestling in the morning/afternoon and indoor soccer at 5pm. 🙃

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The Packers have already won the season. Even if they were to win they'd get absolutely manhandled the following week.  I'll be happy if they compete, but I do think it's possible for them to play spoiler. It will be fun to see how Love plays. 

Unfortunately I won't see it live Coaching wrestling in the morning/afternoon and indoor soccer at 5pm. 🙃

This...Love has proven he's the guy and we've got a pretty secure future there.

I also think Clifford is a really good young backup. Now it's just continuing to build around them and building the culture. 

[valpocrewsader]

11 hours ago, homer said:

Most efficient two QBs in the league the last 9 weeks going head to head.

Off topic, but I was curious to see where Brock Purdy ranked here, but he doesn't appear to be listed. Not enough plays? That doesn't seem right compared with other QBs on the chart. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, valpocrewsader said:

Off topic, but I was curious to see where Brock Purdy ranked here, but he doesn't appear to be listed. Not enough plays? That doesn't seem right compared with other QBs on the chart. 

Good question. Only 20 QBs on there...288 plays isn't a particularly high threshold over 10 weeks of FB(depending on when a team has a buy). 

Must be an oversight, but I'd like to see where he fits. The whole EPA though...what are your expected yards added, even if you hit a guy on a 50 yard deep ball, but he's wide open? SF schemes guys open so well, it's impossible to tell. 

[homer]

9 hours ago, valpocrewsader said:

Off topic, but I was curious to see where Brock Purdy ranked here, but he doesn't appear to be listed. Not enough plays? That doesn't seem right compared with other QBs on the chart. 

great question. He missed the 288 plays cutoff. He had somewhere between 225 and 250. (Also, looking at this chart I'm sure if the Packers had played New England Bailey Zappe would have been AFC player of the week)

[CheezWizHed]

12 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The Packers have already won the season. Even if they were to win they'd get absolutely manhandled the following week.  I'll be happy if they compete, but I do think it's possible for them to play spoiler. It will be fun to see how Love plays. 

Unfortunately I won't see it live. Coaching wrestling in the morning/afternoon and indoor soccer at 5pm. 🙃

+1

I had them 8-9 and not in the playoffs. I only had two goals this year: 1) Was Jordan Love our next QB? 2) Grow the young guys.  Check and Check.

If our D had more consistency (and maybe success against anyone QB of note), I'd feel better about our long term playoff chances... but our offense is pretty hot and a challenge with all the options you have to cover. Jaire is going to go retro and play some CD music this week (that is a good matchup for him).  

I don't have high hopes of winning, but it is the Cowboys... and we still need some 90s payback!

[OldHeidelberg]

12 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The Packers have already won the season. Even if they were to win they'd get absolutely manhandled the following week.  I'll be happy if they compete, but I do think it's possible for them to play spoiler. It will be fun to see how Love plays. 

Unfortunately I won't see it live. Coaching wrestling in the morning/afternoon and indoor soccer at 5pm. 🙃

Yes, I think most of us are just thrilled with the extra game and it is good for Love and the rest of the young players to keep this rolling another week to build toward next year. Of course, if we do pull the upset we will convince ourselves we can beat the Niners too. I am glad we got Dallas instead of Detroit, just a more exciting matchup when we don't have high expectations anyway. It's sort of nice being in the playoffs not worrying about choking away a 13 win season at home again.   

[Underachiever]

Packers are playing the game, they might as well win it. Sad Jerry is the best Jerry. Dak Prescott is 2-4 in the playoffs and has only beaten Tampa, who had a 45 yo QB,  and a Seattle team that had a QB benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham this year. So, nobody. 

I am glad they are not playing at Detroit, because they will probably have the Wolverines at the game, and talk about how they overcame getting caught cheating adversity, and I don't need to see that.

[CheezWizHed]

56 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Yes, I think most of us are just thrilled with the extra game and it is good for Love and the rest of the young players to keep this rolling another week to build toward next year. Of course, if we do pull the upset we will convince ourselves we can beat the Niners too. I am glad we got Dallas instead of Detroit, just a more exciting matchup when we don't have high expectations anyway. It's sort of nice being in the playoffs not worrying about choking away a 13 win season at home again.   

Of course they can beat the 49ers.  Any given Sunday.  Now, the odds of beating them?  Pretty low.  But that doesn't mean we can't.   Our D is obviously the biggest question on which one will show up each week. 

But football games are 75% the play of your QB.  And I Love it that our QB is hot right now.  The 49ers have a Purdy good QB, too.  But it only takes one game... 

[Outlander]

I will be disappointed still if the Packers lose because I don't think the Cowboys are all that great but yeah the next week against the 49ers would likely get ugly.

[HarveysWBs]

After the Lions game on Thanksgiving, I was telling a buddy at work that, for the first time all year, I was simply looking forward to watching the Packers play.  I had reached the perfect equilibrium between thinking they could win, at peace with the idea that they probably won’t, and genuinely excited to see what they come up with.  I haven’t felt that feeling much as a Packers fan, pretty much forever (my earliest football memories are of the 1994 and 1995 seasons, so most years have been high expectation ones for me).

After getting a little over my skis after they beat the Chiefs and I assumed they’d win at least 10, I’m back to the golden mean.  And I’m not saying this is predictive or anything, but I haven’t felt like this since…2010?  I mean, they probably won’t win a single playoff game, but, could they win any given game?  Wouldn’t shock me, not even the 49ers, who can lay an egg with the best of them.  I’m just ready to have fun now.

[Somebody quote this at me when Carlson misses a FG and an ExP, please…]

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Of course they can beat the 49ers.  Any given Sunday.  Now, the odds of beating them?  Pretty low.  But that doesn't mean we can't.   Our D is obviously the biggest question on which one will show up each week. 

But football games are 75% the play of your QB.  And I Love it that our QB is hot right now.  The 49ers have a Purdy good QB, too.  But it only takes one game... 

It's 75% on how well your QB plays perhaps, but not 75% on your QB. Those two teams could play and Purdy could VERY easily outplay Love and it'd likely be due to the 49ers DL and LBers. 

Obviously, QBs are important, that's not news to anyone, but I also think the 49ers have shown you how you don't need that top 3-5 QB. How you can make a good QB look better with the right talent around him. It's actually scary to think what they'd look like had they not traded up for Lance. They traded the pick that ended up becoming Micah Parsons+ 2 more 1sts and IIRC a 3rd reaching for that star QB. 

6 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I will be disappointed still if the Packers lose because I don't think the Cowboys are all that great but yeah the next week against the 49ers would likely get ugly.

Probably. That's just a stacked team that's playing like really well and is just a couple of years ahead of the Packers. We're on the right path though. Just keep building and I don't think we're far off, but this is a complete team in SF. But things happen. I certainly didn't think 2010 was the best chance to win with all the injuries...so we've got a puncher's chance. And maybe Barry comes up with one of his rare schemes that actually works(that may be a bit too optimistic).

[OldHeidelberg]

Packers Wednesday Injury Report

Did not participate: RB AJ Dillon (stinger).

Limited participation: CB Jaire Alexander, WR Romeo Doubs, LG Elgton Jenkins, RB Aaron Jones, LB Isaiah McDuffie, S Jonathan Owens, DT T.J. Slaton, OLB Preston Smith, WR Christian Watson.

[worm81]

Anyone have experience going to a game in Dallas? I live fairly close and was thinking about going.