2024 Brewers Rotation

[AJOHNSON104]

On 2/28/2024 at 12:50 PM, monty57 said:

Isn't that what Dusty did to the young Cubs' pitching staff that ruined the careers of a promising young rotation? 

I don't think he gets over 120-130 innings. The team is going to need to be careful to monitor several of their pitchers' innings. It will be interesting to see how they handle everyone's workload.

Exactly. In this analytic era and being super careful with pitch counts, I see the team running into issues at some point and needing to rotate arms. They're relying on Peralta (who doesn't go too deep), Miley (who has injury / age issues), and guys like Ross and Ashby with injury problems. Then add in the young guys who haven't pitched heavy innings yet, and we might see some heavy use of long relievers and creative IL stints. I see a few games in which a starter gets a 5 IP, 12 ER line just so they can save the bullpen a little. My gut says Rea could be the guy to "take one for the team" once in a while.       

[jay87shot]

It sounded to me like he is just a bit behind in training. I would be surprised if he missed more than a start at this point but there weren't any real details.

[TURBO]

This is the bottom line as I see it:

With the rotation as it currently sits, this will not be a playoff team in 2024.

Defense and bullpen should be great.

Offense, hopefully improved, but there will be a lot of growing pains with the youngsters.

The rotation is the obvious question mark, and for things to advance to a playoff caliber team, we are going to have to have a lot of things go right with this group.

I'm skeptical, but can't wait to see what happens.

[Sugarrayray]

Its funny to me. I think people forget the Brewers were fine before they had their two horses. This is the team that got Chacin to act like a psuedo ACE! Outside of Tampa Bay, there’s no team in baseball that is currently better than the Crew at getting the best out of their pitchers. They made Lauers punk ass good for two years. I’m surprised people think so lowly of this starting rotation. I think it’ll be just fine. Combine that with elite bullpen and defense, and improved offense, I like this club's chances.

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

Its funny to me. I think people forget the Brewers were fine before they had their two horses. This is the team that got Chacin to act like a psuedo ACE! Outside of Tampa Bay, there’s no team in baseball that is currently better than the Crew at getting the best out of their pitchers. They made Lauers punk ass good for two years. I’m surprised people think so lowly of this starting rotation. I think it’ll be just fine. Combine that with elite bullpen and defense, and improved offense, I like this club's chances.

I like your optimism, I just don't share it.

[shanedog19]

19 hours ago, TURBO said:

This is the bottom line as I see it:

With the rotation as it currently sits, this will not be a playoff team in 2024.

Defense and bullpen should be great.

Offense, hopefully improved, but there will be a lot of growing pains with the youngsters.

The rotation is the obvious question mark, and for things to advance to a playoff caliber team, we are going to have to have a lot of things go right with this group.

I'm skeptical, but can't wait to see what happens.

I agree 100%. The starting rotation looks very, very questionable. It's Peralta, and then who else? How many innings will Miley throw this year? We also have a young and inexperienced roster and a new manager. Odds are the bullpen will see some regression from last year too. I hate to be a skeptic, but this feels like a team that will win less than 80 games this year.

[yourout]

30 minutes ago, shanedog19 said:

 

I agree 100%. The starting rotation looks very, very questionable. It's Peralta, and then who else? How many innings will Miley throw this year? We also have a young and inexperienced roster and a new manager. Odds are the bullpen will see some regression from last year too. I hate to be a skeptic, but this feels like a team that will win less than 80 games this year.

As long as it's not less than 70.

I expect this to be a rebuild year as well but you don't really want to see them get blasted either.

[brewmann04]

Go get one of those remaining Fa. Arms 

[JohnBriggs12]

Why not just give Bryce Wilson a shot as a starter?  As far as FA. how about Clevinger?   I get that he has had personal issues, but the guy was a 3.3 WAR pitcher for the White Sox last year while getting trashed in the Chicago media for much of the year.  

[homer]

FWIW here are the innings projections from one of the major projection systems (ATC) for likely/potential starters:

 

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, homer said:

FWIW here are the innings projections from one of the major projection systems (ATC) for likely/potential starters:

 

Not too far off from what FanGraphs depth charts has…

Peralta (163 IP) Miley (133) Junis (125) Rea (113) Gasser (106) Hall (86) Ross (69) Ashby (49) Rodriguez (25) Junk (9)

That rotation comes in at 12.0 projected WAR which ties them for 16th in the rankings with (drumroll please) the Baltimore Orioles.

FG depth charts also have Ashby (44 IP) Junk (31) Ross (28) Hall (24) Rea (14) Gasser (12) Junis (10) projected for some relief innings.

Here is how the Brewers rotations have fared in both FIP based WAR and runs allowed based WAR over their last six full seasons…

2017
12.7 fWAR (9th) 14.2 rWAR (8th)

2018
8.3 fWAR (20th) 11.2 rWAR (15th)

2019
8.5 fWAR (20th) 9.9 rWAR (16th)

Cumulative 2017-19
SP: 29.5 fWAR (18th) 35.2 rWAR (13th)
RP: +13.75 WPA (7th)
Runs Scored: 2,255 (15th)
position player wRC+: 103 (15th)
position player WAR: 74.3 (9th)
DRS: +140 DRS (5th)
Base Running: +16.7 (10th)
Team Wins: 271 (7th)

2021
20.3 fWAR (2nd) 22.3 rWAR (2nd)

2022
12.4 fWAR (13th) 13.0 rWAR (13th)

2023
11.2 fWAR (12th) 15.8 rWAR (4th)

Cumulative 2021-23
SP: 43.9 fWAR (3rd) 51.1 rWAR (3rd)
RP: +19.31 WPA (3rd)
Runs Scored: 2,191 (13th)
position player wRC+: 98 (17th)
position player WAR: 62.0 (12th)
DRS: +147 DRS (1st)
Base Running: +14.7 (9th)
Team Wins: 273 (5th)

Lots of interesting takeaways comparing the similarities and differences in how the 17-19 iteration got to their 271 wins versus how the 21-23 iteration got to their 273.

Constants are that excellent defense has helped the pitchers outperform their peripherals for over half a decade to one degree or another.

That same defense combined with above average base running has helped the position players rank 9th and 12th in WAR over those three year stretches while only ranking 13th to 17th in runs scored and position player wRC+.

For as fickle as relievers are, Brewers bullpens have pretty consistently been nails.

17-19 offense got a season and a half of MVP Yelich to boost their wRC+ over 100, 21-23 rotation got one full season of dominance from Burnes, Woody, and Freddy all together to anchor their rankings.

Winding back around to the 2024 rotation, as a fan of both Eef Barzelay (“I love the unknown”) and Neil Halstead (“give me something new”) I’ll echo the sentiments of Kirsten Dunst and say Bring. It. On.

[StearnsFTW]

I'll be shocked if they don't win at least 85 games.

[brewcrewdue80]

What team ,(Brewers past) didn't lose a pitcher the days before setting the season?   Brewers pitchers should be top 8. The money teams took them all What are Dodgers ranked? 1 and 5?  Now go ahead and tear apart team 2(of 5] of the Dodgers starters. How about argue for those 5 while trashing the current 5 believed to be this future rotation.  

I enter every season with can the pitching do its job this year? Stay healthy? And then give no cares as injuries pile up or we're healthy.  That's what the deadline is for. One we have used with Chacin, and Miley. The dozen+ bullpen acquire. 

Nothing is set until after the deadline. 

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

..,,.,,,,

Winding back around to the 2024 rotation, as a fan of both Eef Barzelay (“I love the unknown”) and Neil Halstead (“give me something new”) I’ll echo the sentiments of Kirsten Dunst and say Bring. It. On.

There you go @sveumrules getting the masses excited for the season  Let’s Go!

[monty57]

One of the big question marks was at least partially answered with Ashby reporting to camp healthy and ready to go. As far as the "youngsters," Hall is the only rookie, and he may not even be eligible as a rookie as he's seen MLB action in Baltimore's 'pen.

My biggest question is how they're going to manage everyone's innings. Other than that, I think that barring injury rotation is coming into focus. It should be Peralta, Miley, Hall, Ashby and Rea (not necessarily in that order). 

Peralta and Miley are both vets, and the biggest worry there are that they've both had some injuries in the past. Hopefully that won't happen this year.

Rea isn't the most talented guy in the world, but is probably our #5 "innings eater" guy. He'll help alleviate some of the innings concerns, but if everyone is healthy, he'll be the guy who gets bumped when they're ready to bring Gasser up.

Ashby and Hall both have great stuff. Neither will probably be able to pitch a full season's worth of starts, but both are guys who have the stuff to be at the top of a rotation some day.

Ross and Junis (and maybe Junk) are probably going to start the season as multi-inning relievers, who can step into the rotation as needed. They will be important in keeping everyone's innings down, allowing the team to skip starts at times, or come in after the starter only throw a few innings.

Gasser and Mis can start at AAA. Gasser is ready now, and will be up this year, but he's not on the 40 man and I'd guess he'll be in the minors on opening day. He will play a role on the '24 MLB team, and depending on how things go, Mis might also be up this year.

So yes, there are some questions... every team has questions. But, I don't think it's a bad rotation. The biggest question is how they'll keep everyone under their innings limit. That's a better question to have than questioning whether any of the guys can pitch at the MLB level.

[MrTPlush]

The rotation is awful.

1) The ace is Freddy Peralta...a guy we hope can give us a lengthy healthy season with maybe a mid 3 ERA. Past that it nosedives into inexperienced guys that have basically never had a real full season of being a starter at the MLB level.

2) We would dearly need a healthy season from Miley that continues to defy age. Yet, here we are, already hurt.

3) Ashby needs to be healthy and take a big step forward.

4 and 5) If the above three could happen then we could afford some middling performance here. Think 2023 Colin Rea output level. Health would be ideal...we probably can't afford spot starters repping 5-6 ERA stuff. 

I doubt this rotation will be very pretty. Gotta hope the offense is dramatically better than last year, which is a lot more likely than this rotation impressing.

[umphrey]

It's going to be a weird year. Freddy hopefully gets 160+ innings which is about his career high that he's hit once. Besides him, we have 9 other guys, not one of them likely to go much more than 100 innings, but all likely to get a number of starts. And I'm pretty sure a lot of innings will get filled by names not in the org right now. 

[MVP2110]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The rotation is awful.

1) The ace is Freddy Peralta...a guy we hope can give us a lengthy healthy season with maybe a mid 3 ERA. Past that it nosedives into inexperienced guys that have basically never had a real full season of being a starter at the MLB level.

2) We would dearly need a healthy season from Miley that continues to defy age. Yet, here we are, already hurt.

3) Ashby needs to be healthy and take a big step forward.

4 and 5) If the above three could happen then we could afford some middling performance here. Think 2023 Colin Rea output level. Health would be ideal...we probably can't afford spot starters repping 5-6 ERA stuff. 

I doubt this rotation will be very pretty. Gotta hope the offense is dramatically better than last year, which is a lot more likely than this rotation impressing.

It's not great but I think awful is a bit of a stretch. I think this rotation is roughly middle of the pack with some breakout potential(Hall, Gasser Ashby), and some bust potential as well. Honestly this rotation could finish top or bottom 10 and I wouldn't be that surprised

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it'd be wise to go with a six man rotation right out of the gate. At most wait for a couple weeks to get past all the off days early on. Peralta and Miley both have injury histories and Rea isn't good enough to need to work in every fifth day. All the rest are probably on limited innings which either means them hitting the limit during a playoff push or limiting innings early on so there's no problem later on. The only argument I see against it is we have a lot of five inning type of starters so it might tax the pen too much. But that's mitigated somewhat by the number of swing man types we have. Combine that with the usual optioning game, which we play very well IMHO, and it should be ok.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2023 rotation was supposed to be Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, and Hauser. Woodruff missed a huge chunk of the season. Lauer was hurt, and underperformed so bad when he could pitch that he hasn't even found a job yet. Hauser was ok, but battled injury. Wade Miley was good when available, but his health is always a question mark. Fortunately Rea and Teheran filled in pretty effectively when called upon. 

Burnes is going to be a big loss, obviously. They are losing the 67 innings that Woody did pitch last year. Hauser had 111 league-average innings that need to be replaced. There are obviously questions marks. But they won 92 games with a hodgepodge rotation behind Burnes last year. If anything, this team has proven that they can find effective starting pitching from other than the ace-type guys. Calling the 2024 group "awful" is a pretty big case of exaggerated hyperbole, IMO.  

[Ignitor 4ever]

48 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

2023 rotation was supposed to be Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, and Hauser. Woodruff missed a huge chunk of the season. Lauer was hurt, and underperformed so bad when he could pitch that he hasn't even found a job yet. Hauser was ok, but battled injury. Wade Miley was good when available, but his health is always a question mark. Fortunately Rea and Teheran filled in pretty effectively when called upon. 

Burnes is going to be a big loss, obviously. They are losing the 67 innings that Woody did pitch last year. Hauser had 111 league-average innings that need to be replaced. There are obviously questions marks. But they won 92 games with a hodgepodge rotation behind Burnes last year. If anything, this team has proven that they can find effective starting pitching from other than the ace-type guys. Calling the 2024 group "awful" is a pretty big case of exaggerated hyperbole, IMO.  

I agree.  Looking at the big picture I think we have to look at the Brewers pitching staff as a whole.  The starting rotation is an important part of the equation, but it is only part of the equation.  In today's MLB, the bullpen is expected to cover 3-4 innings per game and the Brewers have one of the best in baseball.  We really only need our starters to be competent for 5-6 innings per outing.  Is the rotation as good as last year?  No.  But it isn't awful either.  Peralta was really good in the last few months of 2023 and I think he will be solid this year.  Let's wait to see what we get from Hall, Ashby and Gasser this year before calling the rotation awful.

Not to mention, the offense is much improved (at least on paper) and hopefully the pitchers will get more help this year than they had last years.  Do I think this team wins 92 in 2024?  No.  Do I think winning 85-87 is possible and this team makes the playoffs?  Yes.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Calling the 2024 group "awful" is a pretty big case of exaggerated hyperbole, IMO.  

I think highly unproven might be better, IMO.  And highly unproven might turn in awful results... or they might be averagish.

I guess, I look at 2024 similar to the 2023 Packer season.  It is a rebuild and growth year for their SP and offense. 

If 2024 goes well, the 2025 starting rotation could potentially look like Peralta, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Les Mis, and Gasser.  That is a pretty exciting SP rotation and depth. Add in a year of development of our young hitters and next year is shaping up nicely.   

Not that I'm ready to punt on 2024... but a downturn was somewhat in the cards this year with Woo's injury and probable Burnes trade. So I'm happy to watch the youngsters develop this year with low(er) expectations.  And if Hall can develop as an SP the same way Love did at QB... well that would be just the cherry on top. 😀

[Jopal78]

They’ll be alright. The talent level is better than when the rotation was filled with Paul Rigdon, Allen Levrault, Jimmy Haynes and Jamey Wright with pitching prospects Rueben Quevedo and Kyle Peterson knocking on the doors.

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

It's not great but I think awful is a bit of a stretch. I think this rotation is roughly middle of the pack with some breakout potential(Hall, Gasser Ashby), and some bust potential as well. Honestly this rotation could finish top or bottom 10 and I wouldn't be that surprised

What makes them middle of the pack? How would you compare them to the Cubs rotation? Here's one power ranking I found that has a top 10 along with 4 missed the cut...no Brewers to be found. There's a path to the Brewers being in the 12-15 range...if Ashby stays healthy and takes a step forward, if Hall's gains in the bullpen last year translate into the rotation, and if Miley continues to defy his age....and if they all stay healthy. That's a lot of things that need to break right for you to be right, with odds being way higher of them being a clear bottom 10 rotation.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-power-rankings-baseballs-top-10-rotations-entering-2024-season-with-braves-astros-phillies-at-the-top/

[KeithStone53151]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think highly unproven might be better, IMO.  And highly unproven might turn in awful results... or they might be averagish.

I guess, I look at 2024 similar to the 2023 Packer season.  It is a rebuild and growth year for their SP and offense. 

If 2024 goes well, the 2025 starting rotation could potentially look like Peralta, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Les Mis, and Gasser.  That is a pretty exciting SP rotation and depth. Add in a year of development of our young hitters and next year is shaping up nicely.   

Not that I'm ready to punt on 2024... but a downturn was somewhat in the cards this year with Woo's injury and probable Burnes trade. So I'm happy to watch the youngsters develop this year with low(er) expectations.  And if Hall can develop as an SP the same way Love did at QB... well that would be just the cherry on top. 😀

This seems more fair than most takes. There's certainly quite a bit to be excited about with Hall/Ashby and a few of the pitching prospects. I don't think it's going to make 2024 any less ugly though.