Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes for INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall and 2024 Competitive Balance Pick

[Matt]

I didn't expect a deep playoff run this season. I'm glad they appear to be going in a rebuild direction. This team is stacked with young guys you can imagine being part of the next great Brewers era. I'd like to enjoy this season without the cloud of soon to be FA's hanging over it. 

Now deal Adames and Devin, please. 

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

I don't bet against the Brewers but it does go to show that this team isn't well thought of.

The Brewers are never well thought of.

But they’ve made a regular habit of beating those prognostications over the last seven, eight years.

[wiguy94]

45 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

For a pitcher who is most likely a fringe reliever and a glove first SS?

Hall is absolutely not a fringe reliever. His floor is probably a high leverage RP.

[brewers888]

Burnes did come up small in the playoffs so I'm fine with trading him just don't like the players we got back.

[SeaBass]

I'm stoked, so glad Burnes is gone and we don't have to sweat out his health status the whole year. Burnes has been far from my favorite Brewer, for an ace it was pretty frustrating to watch his mediocre starts of which in my opinion there were too many of. I'm not saying he was bad he just didn't live up to my idea of an ace, more like a solid 2 or 3 on a team that can afford to spend on pitching.

With only one season of control remaining the return isn't what I hoped for but I think it's pretty reasonable and I trust Arnold and the team's scouts (who are not amateur keyboard warriors) that they got good talent. That comp pick is real nice too. Big win.

[Sixtolezcano]

I don’t know very much about Ortiz, however, after looking at his AAA stats from last year calling him a utility infielder seems to be a slight over-the-top appraisal. A 0.321/0.378/0.507 batting line and a 60 grade as a defensive SS looks pretty impressive to me. Could someone please tell me what I’m missing?

[ctmyers]

So market value for Cease is Wiemer and Logan Henderson?  Got it.  

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers are never well thought of.

But they’ve made a regular habit of beating those prognostications over the last seven, eight years.

The Brewers have been favored or close to it to win the division the last 5 years or so. I'm sure its been quite awhile since the O/U for wins was as low as 78.5.

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I don’t know very much about Ortiz, however, after looking at his AAA stats from last year calling him a utility infielder seems to be a slight over-the-top appraisal. A 0.321/0.378/0.507 batting line and a 60 grade as a defensive SS looks pretty impressive to me. Could someone please tell me what I’m missing?

He's 25 so those stats might not mean much.

[BruisedCrew]

1 minute ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I don’t know very much about Ortiz, however, after looking at his AAA stats from last year calling him a utility infielder seems to be a slight over-the-top appraisal. A 0.321/0.378/0.507 batting line and a 60 grade as a defensive SS looks pretty impressive to me. Could someone please tell me what I’m missing?

A 25 year old who’s still in the minor leagues doesn’t strike me as a likely prospect. 

[pitchleague]

Certainly not the way I thought my Thursday night would turn out.

I'm saddened as Burnes has been a stalwart with this club for a number of years.  Yes, his numbers have declined since the Cy Young season but that's no shocker--his numbers were kinda out of this world and reeked over regression on the horizon.  But, still, he's been a Brewer and really, dang good one.  I will certainly miss him a lot.  And, who knows what he even provides Baltimore?  A 4.00 ERA this year?  Worse?  Arm trouble?  Or maybe the veteran leadership the Baltimore craves right now with a young club and he'll bring some Andy Pettitte-like guidance to that club, even with only some so-so numbers.  It will be fun to watch how it plays out in Baltimore.

For us, I think the writing is on the wall with Adames.  He's probably dealt at the trading deadline at the latest and, possibly, still before the season starts (a trade during spring training would be interesting!)  I don't know much about Ortiz but it looks like we dealt for him to be an heir apparent for a least a few years--I really hope he doesn't scream as another shortstop top prospect that is a flop after a year or two.

I do like DL Hall.  His stuff seems pretty good.  It will be interesting to see what the pitching lab can do with him.  That name, though LOL. 

I'm willing to pass judgment in September, not February 1st.

Go Brewers!  (8 weeks to the day until Opening Day!!!!)

[wallus]

4 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I don’t know very much about Ortiz, however, after looking at his AAA stats from last year calling him a utility infielder seems to be a slight over-the-top appraisal. A 0.321/0.378/0.507 batting line and a 60 grade as a defensive SS looks pretty impressive to me. Could someone please tell me what I’m missing?

He's kinda old for a prospect

[endaround]

4 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I don’t know very much about Ortiz, however, after looking at his AAA stats from last year calling him a utility infielder seems to be a slight over-the-top appraisal. A 0.321/0.378/0.507 batting line and a 60 grade as a defensive SS looks pretty impressive to me. Could someone please tell me what I’m missing?

That works out to a wRC+ 121 in AAA with a BABIP of .373.  So not sustainable.  He projects about an wRC+85 so basically a second division starter or utility infielder.  

[tmwiese55]

Kind of thought Hoskins deal meant they were more likely to play it out so this came as a surprise.

I'm nowhere near the prospect expert many here so generally default to ya'll.  First thought was surprised it was only two plays, then noticed they're both MLB ready and understood it.  I'd guess the Brewers pitching experts think they can make a lot of the P like they did with Wood, Burnes, and so many others.  Reading the SS is glove heavy and questionable hitting from ya'll does make me think I'd have liked at least one more lower level 'lottery ticket' type.   But have to remember Burnes is only 1 year and Bal probably won't resign him, once the Dodgers were out of play it probably killed his trade value. 

Curious if one of the remaining FA SPs is open to a 1-2 year prove it Hoskins deal too since they're not seeing the money they hoped.   Otherwise our starting pitching is really underwhelming. Division is so weak though they could still win with some luck, but maybe this will entice the Cubs to spend up. 

[brewerfan82]

One thing not mentioned so far, both these guys are rookie eligible correct? Add two more bullets for that possible rookie of the year compensation!

(actually not sure Hall is eligible anymore having dropped off MLB's top 100 list for the first time in like 6 years, lol)

[long ball]

Losing Burnes and Woodruff in one offseason is rough. I would have preferred to ride out the year with Burnes and let him leave in free agency.

I don't know anything about the players we got in return other than the 10 minutes I just spent reading up on them. Ortiz is most likely a better bet to be a long term solution at SS than Turang. Hall seems like he could stick in the bullpen and at the very least be a decent member of the shuttle squad which we need since a lot of our pen isn't going to have options. 

 

Bummer on Ethan Small. What a mess that turned out to be.

 

I'm hoping they add some SP options here. I already wasn't too excited about Rea and Ross being the likely 4th and 5th guys in the rotation to start the year. 

[Sixtolezcano]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

He's kinda old for a prospect

With Gunner Henderson as the O’s starting SS I don’t think there was much of a chance for him to start ahead of him.Do you?

[Matt]

My guess is Ortiz is looked at as a 2B, not a SS. Arm thing.

[SRB]

It's not an overwhelming return, but it's objectively pretty good. Even setting aside the fact that the Brewer FO might be super high on both prospects, Ortiz is a top-60 overall prospect entering 2024, and Hall was a top-60 overall prospect entering 2023. If Hall isn't on current top 100 lists it's because he's already been in the majors a bit (33.0 IP with a 11.5 K/9 and 2.44 FIP) and because Baltimore moved him to the bullpen temporarily, which the Brewers will certainly reverse.

So two top-60 prospects and a first round draft pick is a solid return for a one-season rental. Not sure what people were expecting.

[wibadgers23]

I actually really like Ortiz.  Just wish he was a couple years younger.  The timing of the trade is just bizarre.  After we signed Hoskins, I figured there was just about a 0% chance of Burnes being traded.

[wallus]

1 minute ago, Sixtolezcano said:

With Gunner Henderson as the O’s starting SS I don’t think there was much of a chance for him to start ahead of him.Do you?

Nope, this trade makes tons of sense for the Orioles

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

A 25 year old who’s still in the minor leagues doesn’t strike me as a likely prospect. 

He was playing his age 24 season in 2023.

He will be playing his age 25 season in 2024.

Like purt near every player drafted before 2020, his development was delayed a full year by a global pandemic.

[CheezWizHed]

Thought this was interesting from Keith Law (yeah, I know, but other scouts seem to say the same) one year ago.  After that, Hall seemed to continue control struggles, but Ortiz continued to climb up the boards. 

 

5. DL Hall, LHP (No. 84)

Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 21 in 2017

This is Hall’s fifth year on the top 100, and probably his last — either he breaks through and plays long enough in the majors to graduate, or he fails to make any progress in command and control and spends most of the year repeating Triple A. His stuff is too good to ignore, though. Hall is a hyper-athletic lefty who can show several plus pitches, with a fastball that topped out at 98.6 mph in the majors this year, a power curveball he rarely used in the big leagues, a hard slider with big horizontal break, and a straight change that’s very deceptive because it looks so much like his fastball out of his hand. His delivery is good and he could repeat it, but he doesn’t throw as many strikes as he should, or really as he could. When he’s ahead in the count, he works out of the strike zone way too often given the quality of his stuff. Between his huge extension out front, the way his breaking stuff and his fastball/change break out of his hand, and the genetic fortune of being left-handed, he should be a front-line starter who misses a ton of bats and holds down hard contact. It’s all about location for him now, and while he’s made some progress since he was drafted, this year will determine quite a bit about his future career path.

6. Joey Ortiz, SS (No. 95)

Age: 24 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 108 in 2019

Ortiz remade his swing and body during the pandemic year and came back a different hitter in 2021, but hurt his shoulder after just 35 very productive games in High A. He returned for Opening Day 2022 but struggled out of the gate, hitting .214/.275/.328 in the first half of his season (69 games), striking out three times as often as he walked. His second half was much more in line with the player we saw before his injury: he hit .355/.422/.627 in his last 68 games, the final 26 of them in Triple A, with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s a 60 defender at short, with great actions and soft hands, possibly the best defender of the Orioles’ many, many shortstop prospects. At the plate, he’s short to the ball and hits a lot of line drives, although he puts the ball on the ground often enough that he’s much more likely to keep hitting for average than he is to hit 19 homers (his 2022 total) in the majors. He rarely whiffs, making contact on about five of every six swings, and doesn’t run a ton of deep counts because he can put enough pitches in play to avoid them. The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense.

[brewers888]

I guess Miley is the number two starter as of now which is not exactly reassuring. 

[markedman5]