2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[sveumrules]

18 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

The bullpen likely is worse in 2024. They had the 5th highest bullpen WPA of the 21st century (720 different bullpen seasons) last year. They could have the same ERA this season but the likelihood they replicate how clutch the high leverage guys were this season is pretty slim.

I agree the bullpen is unlikely to match their WPA from last year, but I think the idea is that hopefully improved offense will give the bullpen a little more breathing room and less win probability they’ll be responsible for adding themselves.

Last years 92 wRC+ shook out to -61.4 batting runs and -5.09 WPA, so getting back to average would be something like five to six wins up depending how that hypothetical additional offense is spread out across the leverage spectrum.

If the bullpen regresses from +11.73 WPA down to something like 2018 (+5.65), 2019 (+5.22) or 2021 (+5.90) levels that’s around six wins down.

Starting pitchers came in at 15.8 rWAR last year, if they regress down to 2019 (9.8) or 2018 (11.2) levels that’s another five to six wins down.

Obviously that’s a lot of assumptions and back of the envelope math, but this feels like around an 86 to 88 wins or so kind of team to me.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The Cardinals were so, so terrible last year, though. They haven't made a ton of additions. I don't know if they improve that drastically with basically the same cast of characters coming back, especially since many of their bigger bats are already on the decline.

Keep telling yourself that man, I'll just sit here with a big bowl of popcorn and watch the Cardinals find their "Coupe de Ville Hidin' at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box."  (Extra points to anyone getting that reference)

I hope you're right, I hope they suck butt for another season, but I wouldn't bet on it.  I think the Reds are going to be the team that makes a lot of noise, and in the end, if it isn't us, they should be in the best shape to take the division.

[Frisbee Slider]

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

Coupe de Ville Hidin' at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box."  (Extra points to anyone getting that reference)

[Lathund]

I don't think the Cardinals will be good, but I do think they'll be better than 2023.  Part of that is that even with the exact same performance they should score some more runs than they ended up doing. Now maybe there was an element of being "anti-clutch" that'll continue, but I'll always doubt that. The other part is that while their rotation will still be bad, it should be bad while covering more innings. Meaning less bullpen strain, which should mean better bullpen performance. Now of course, their rotation is still ancient, so it could also end up injured. 

The Cubs haven't improved at all. Not replacing Belli (yet) is huge, and Imanaga is a huge question mark to me. Busch could be anything. And while a 1-year deal for a big budget team can never be truly bad, I really don't understand why Neris got the contract he did. Literally everything about his performance screams regression. They're still a team who could be quite good if things go their way, but I don't see a ton of upside. 

Reds... now while I can see the argument for the Cubs or Cardinals, I really don't rate the Reds highly. It's a young team, but that can go both ways. Their young rookies pretty much all massively outperformed their xwOBA. Which isn't gospel, but suggests they need to get better if they want to maintain the same results. They signed some decent players, but not in the way that made the most sense IMO. They had a young, unproven rotation with injuries and previous workloads suggesting they'd get relatively few innings from it. And they added Montas and Martinez; one of whom pitched 1.1 innings, the other who was a swingman. That bullpen will be heavily taxed, and it wasn't great to begin with. Their "big" signing was Candelario who isn't a bad player... but the marginal gain from adding yet another good but not great infielder, something they already had plenty of, is minor. 

The Pirates are better than they have been in some years, and won't be a pushover. But they're still clearly the worst team IMO. Cruz, Hayes and Reynolds are a core I really like. Quite like Suwinski too. But the dropoff beyond that is massive. Rotation beyond Keller isn't much good either. 

 

I think the Brewers have a solid chance. Not necessarily favorites, but also not any worse than their competitors. I also think they're the team most likely to overperform their projections. Reds rookies overperformed projections and expectations last year, Brewers rookies did the opposite. Even a modest amount of regression will see a big change. And Brewers still have the best 2024 rookies of the bunch. But it's a really close division; anyone can win it. Well the Pirates would surprise me a great deal, but it's still so close that some randomness could see them surprise. Things like whether the Cardinals rotation stays healthy, or whether the Cubs sing Bellinger (And which Bellinger they get) will impact a lot. 

[MVP2110]

44 minutes ago, Lathund said:

I don't think the Cardinals will be good, but I do think they'll be better than 2023.  Part of that is that even with the exact same performance they should score some more runs than they ended up doing. Now maybe there was an element of being "anti-clutch" that'll continue, but I'll always doubt that. The other part is that while their rotation will still be bad, it should be bad while covering more innings. Meaning less bullpen strain, which should mean better bullpen performance. Now of course, their rotation is still ancient, so it could also end up injured. 

The Cubs haven't improved at all. Not replacing Belli (yet) is huge, and Imanaga is a huge question mark to me. Busch could be anything. And while a 1-year deal for a big budget team can never be truly bad, I really don't understand why Neris got the contract he did. Literally everything about his performance screams regression. They're still a team who could be quite good if things go their way, but I don't see a ton of upside. 

Reds... now while I can see the argument for the Cubs or Cardinals, I really don't rate the Reds highly. It's a young team, but that can go both ways. Their young rookies pretty much all massively outperformed their xwOBA. Which isn't gospel, but suggests they need to get better if they want to maintain the same results. They signed some decent players, but not in the way that made the most sense IMO. They had a young, unproven rotation with injuries and previous workloads suggesting they'd get relatively few innings from it. And they added Montas and Martinez; one of whom pitched 1.1 innings, the other who was a swingman. That bullpen will be heavily taxed, and it wasn't great to begin with. Their "big" signing was Candelario who isn't a bad player... but the marginal gain from adding yet another good but not great infielder, something they already had plenty of, is minor. 

The Pirates are better than they have been in some years, and won't be a pushover. But they're still clearly the worst team IMO. Cruz, Hayes and Reynolds are a core I really like. Quite like Suwinski too. But the dropoff beyond that is massive. Rotation beyond Keller isn't much good either. 

 

I think the Brewers have a solid chance. Not necessarily favorites, but also not any worse than their competitors. I also think they're the team most likely to overperform their projections. Reds rookies overperformed projections and expectations last year, Brewers rookies did the opposite. Even a modest amount of regression will see a big change. And Brewers still have the best 2024 rookies of the bunch. But it's a really close division; anyone can win it. Well the Pirates would surprise me a great deal, but it's still so close that some randomness could see them surprise. Things like whether the Cardinals rotation stays healthy, or whether the Cubs sing Bellinger (And which Bellinger they get) will impact a lot. 

I think this is pretty spot on. I think all 4 of the Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Reds have a chance to win the Central this year, and the Pirates won't be as terrible as years past. A lot of it will likely come down to how teams perform in 1 run games, injury luck, and how well young players acclimate to the big leagues. A major question for me from the Brewers end of things has to do with their record in 1 run games the last few years. Was that Counsell truly being better than his counterparts or was he simply just implementing the information that was given to him. 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, Lathund said:

I don't think the Cardinals will be good, but I do think they'll be better than 2023.  Part of that is that even with the exact same performance they should score some more runs than they ended up doing. Now maybe there was an element of being "anti-clutch" that'll continue, but I'll always doubt that. The other part is that while their rotation will still be bad, it should be bad while covering more innings. Meaning less bullpen strain, which should mean better bullpen performance. Now of course, their rotation is still ancient, so it could also end up injured. 

The Cubs haven't improved at all. Not replacing Belli (yet) is huge, and Imanaga is a huge question mark to me. Busch could be anything. And while a 1-year deal for a big budget team can never be truly bad, I really don't understand why Neris got the contract he did. Literally everything about his performance screams regression. They're still a team who could be quite good if things go their way, but I don't see a ton of upside. 

Reds... now while I can see the argument for the Cubs or Cardinals, I really don't rate the Reds highly. It's a young team, but that can go both ways. Their young rookies pretty much all massively outperformed their xwOBA. Which isn't gospel, but suggests they need to get better if they want to maintain the same results. They signed some decent players, but not in the way that made the most sense IMO. They had a young, unproven rotation with injuries and previous workloads suggesting they'd get relatively few innings from it. And they added Montas and Martinez; one of whom pitched 1.1 innings, the other who was a swingman. That bullpen will be heavily taxed, and it wasn't great to begin with. Their "big" signing was Candelario who isn't a bad player... but the marginal gain from adding yet another good but not great infielder, something they already had plenty of, is minor. 

The Pirates are better than they have been in some years, and won't be a pushover. But they're still clearly the worst team IMO. Cruz, Hayes and Reynolds are a core I really like. Quite like Suwinski too. But the dropoff beyond that is massive. Rotation beyond Keller isn't much good either. 

 

I think the Brewers have a solid chance. Not necessarily favorites, but also not any worse than their competitors. I also think they're the team most likely to overperform their projections. Reds rookies overperformed projections and expectations last year, Brewers rookies did the opposite. Even a modest amount of regression will see a big change. And Brewers still have the best 2024 rookies of the bunch. But it's a really close division; anyone can win it. Well the Pirates would surprise me a great deal, but it's still so close that some randomness could see them surprise. Things like whether the Cardinals rotation stays healthy, or whether the Cubs sing Bellinger (And which Bellinger they get) will impact a lot. 

Mostly agree with your take.

The Reds have numbers on their side. 7-8 potential IF’s and depth of OF’s as well. This will help mitigate the inevitable regressions they will get from a good amount of their sophomore positionals.

I disagree with your assessment of their pitching. They go 10 deep with quality starter options and if they can get Greene to take the next step and Lodolo can finally get healthy— look out — they easily would have the best rotation in the division. They still might even if they don’t hit on both.

[sveumrules]

Pirates extend Keller for 5/77, buying out three free agent years.

Here’s how he has fared over the last two seasons among 119 pitchers with at least 200 IP…

353 IP (19th) | 95 ERA- (62nd)  | 92 FIP- (43rd) | 103 K%+ (51st) | 90 BB%+ (70th) | 84 HR9+ (28th) | 107 GB%+ (33rd) | 111 LD%+ (105th) | 4.8 rWAR (52nd) | 5.3 fWAR (37th)

So his best attributes look like quantity and getting a nice amount of grounders  allowing him to limit HRs, with the trade off being middling K/BB rates and a scary line drive percentage.

All in all probably a good deal for the Pirates, but also not someone you really want being more than a #3 guy in a playoff calibre rotation.

[StearnsFTW]

I had the Cardinals counted out at the All-Star break last season.

 

I imagine I'll be doing the same this year. 

 

Their win total under may be my favorite bet on the board.

[StearnsFTW]

Surprise, surprise, the Cardinals' old pitching staff is MRI ing already 

 

The line forms behind Sonny Gray.

[Underachiever]

15 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Surprise, surprise, the Cardinals' old pitching staff is MRI ing already 

 

The line forms behind Sonny Gray.

Here is my paranoid take. This makes the Cards go get Snell. Or Montgomery 

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

Here is my paranoid take. This makes the Cards go get Snell. Or Montgomery 

Well, that would definitely change my opinion on their pitching.

[Underachiever]

I completely missed that the Cards signed Brandon Crawford. I think with Lance Lynn on the mound, and an infield of Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford and Arenado, they are real threat to win the 2019 World Series.

[TURBO]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Here is my paranoid take. This makes the Cards go get Snell. Or Montgomery 

lol  I thought the exact same thing.  Teams might do anything in desperation...

[Brewcrew82]

I get being down on the rotation compared to last year, but this is insanity.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10111890-tier-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams-entering-2024-season

[sveumrules]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I get being down on the rotation compared to last year, but this is insanity.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10111890-tier-rankings-for-all-30-mlb-teams-entering-2024-season

Author must not be a fan of the projections either if they think the Nationals (64.6 projected wins at FG | 58.2 projected wins at BPro) belong in a tier with the Pirates (77.7 | 72.6) and Brewers (80.8 | 79.7).

NL essentially has three tiers this year with ATL/LAD at the top, WAS/COL at the bottom and the other 11 teams more or less in the middle projected between 78-85 wins with the exception of PECOTA being low on the Pirates.

 

[tmwiese55]

Completely minor nitpick but Phi probably could be moved in the ATL/LAD tier. If I had to pick which one to put them in.  Oddly, could probably argue they're in a separate tier on account of ATL/LAD being so good.  So something like LAD/ATL big gap, Phi, big gap, everyone else, gap, trash teams.  To keep it simple I'd probably just put them up with the top tier.

While I'd agree 23 is probably low and his write up probably too harsh I certainly get it. Our O has been bad for years, and we're banking on rookies and a guy who hasn't played in a year to improve it.  Pitching lost two aces and replaced with youth/scrap heaps.  On paper we have one reliable starting P and he normally is a 5 inning guy. One proven guy but he's old af.  Then a bunch of guys who last year we'd have all mocked/rolled our eyes at as 'bullpen/punt days'. I get this site is gonna skew homer and we're all digging up ways to thinking folks like Collin Rea can ever be more than just mediocre filler guys. But from an outsiders view, they look at our rotation and see nothing to bank on (while having had a trash O for years).

So I get it. But following as close as people like us do along with the the homerism I said above there is a real justification behind trusting the management in regards to pitching, so like many of you I do expect them to do better than what it looks like on paper to an outsider. They've been doing this for years and keep producing results, so I give the benefit of the doubt and do think they'll be competitive and basically have as good a chance at the division as the other 3. Especially have to give them credit in regards to bullpen, which for hot take national writers that's hard to quantify since they're not as close to it as us.  I guess in summary, I'm probably more pessimistic than the avg joe here, but more optimistic due to their P development track record than a writer like that.   If Hall and Ashby prove to be our next Burnes/Woodruff all of a sudden we're onto something potentially big. But from a national writer, I get when he quickly looks at it goes well this uh doesn't look too hot. 

[kestrel79]

That Yelich comment from a couple weeks back about "We're the Brewers..." and how the preseason predictions always seem to snub us is so true.

Even during this run of the playoffs since 2018...were we ever actually favored to win the Division or make the playoffs in any of those awesome seasons? What about back in 2011?

[KeithStone53151]

On 3/5/2024 at 10:21 AM, Underachiever said:

I completely missed that the Cards signed Brandon Crawford. I think with Lance Lynn on the mound, and an infield of Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford and Arenado, they are real threat to win the 2019 World Series.

With so many grizzled vets, will the Cardinals go back to being the primary enforcers of the unwritten rules? 

[Underachiever]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

With so many grizzled vets, will the Cardinals go back to being the primary enforcers of the unwritten rules? 

I can already hear the sound of Cardinal pitcher chin music if a Brewer dares untuck a jersey or glance in the general direction of a home run.

[Jastro]

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Brewers ranked as fourth best team in NL Central, per MLB.com power rankings. I realize these are pointless and losing Devin Williams hurts.

However, Milwaukee won the division by nine games last year. No one in the division is meaningfully improved compared to last year, in my opinion. Brewers losing Burnes and Williams should still be considered near the top of the division.

story

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

19 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Brewers ranked as fourth best team in NL Central, per MLB.com power rankings. I realize these are pointless and losing Devin Williams hurts.

However, Milwaukee won the division by nine games last year. No one in the division is meaningfully improved compared to last year, in my opinion. Brewers losing Burnes and Williams should still be considered near the top of the division.

story

Fine with me. Let them sneak up on baseball this year. But IMO, there is no way that the Brewers should be ranked lower than the Cubs and especially the Cardinals after the trainwreck of a 2023 season they had. And the Reds are very debatable.

[Frisbee Slider]

Brewers will be better this year at:

1B

2B

3B

SS (probably)

CF

RF

I am optimistic the rotation and bullpen is deep enough to be effective. Yelich in LF with 3.6 WAR again seems fine.

[wallus]

33 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Brewers will be better this year at:

1B

2B

3B

SS (probably)

CF

RF

I am optimistic the rotation and bullpen is deep enough to be effective. Yelich in LF with 3.6 WAR again seems fine.

I don't know how we couldn't be better at DH this year too.

[LouisEly]

On 2/19/2024 at 3:57 PM, TURBO said:

I simply will not count the Cardinals out until they are mathematically out.

Let's not go through that again this year...