2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[HarryDoyle]

The Cubs trade Garrett Cooper to Boston for cash.

[Frisbee Slider]

Is this going to be a two team race for the NL Central?

Pirates seem to have already regressed. The Cardinals only have Contreras swinging well. Reds seem to have pitching but only .293 team OBP (14th in NL).

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Is this going to be a two team race for the NL Central?

Pirates seem to have already regressed. The Cardinals only have Contreras swinging well. Reds seem to have pitching but only .293 team OBP (14th in NL).

FanGraphs pretty much has it as a two team race…

MIL 41,2% WinDiv
CHI 33.1% WinDiv
STL 13.7% WinDiv
CIN 9.5% WinDiv
PIT 2.5% WinDiv

PECOTA thinks the Cards are still in the thick of things…

CHI 33.9% WinDiv
STL 29.3% WinDiv
MIL 27.6% WinDiv
CIN 9.3% WinDiv
PIT 0.3% WinDiv

My own personal brain computer is more in line with FG at something like 34% each for MIL/CHI, 15% each for STL/CIN and 2% for PIT.

Here’s how the NLC clubs have stacked up in some key statistical categories so far with MLB ranks for additional scale…

Position Player WAR
MIL (7.3, 2nd) | CHI (3.4, 17th) | STL (1.5, 24th) | CIN (1.3, 25th) | PIT (0.5, 27th)

wRC+
MIL (118, 2nd) | CHI (101, 15th) | STL (86, 25th) | PIT (86, 26th) | CIN (85, 27th)

Outs Above Average
MIL (+7, 8th) | STL (-3, 18th) | CIN (-8, 26th) | CHI (-11, 28th) | PIT (-13, 29th)

Whole Staff ERA-
CIN (90, 9th) | PIT (93, 10th) | MIL (96, 14th) | CHI (96, 15th) | STL (100, 17th)

Starting Pitcher rWAR
CHI (4.2, 4th) | PIT (3.3, 9th) | CIN (3.3, 10th) | STL (2.1, 18th) | MIL (2.0, 19th)

Bullpen Win Probability Added
MIL (+3.05, 3rd) | CIN (+0.82, 13th) | STL (+0.69, 15th) | CHI (+0.47, 19th) | PIT (+0.43, 20th)

[igor67]

I'd handicap the percentages pretty much the same. Cincy does have enough youth that they could make it interesting and for awhile STL could still pull the fountain of Youth trick in the second half, all the more reason to be greedy this weekend and go for a sweep.

[Frisbee Slider]

Reds lost eight straight 

[Thurston Fluff]

Didn't the Reds have a horrible start last season before turning it around?

[Frisbee Slider]

2 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Didn't the Reds have a horrible start last season before turning it around?

But do they have more prospects to call up this year to spur a turnaround?

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

But do they have more prospects to call up this year to spur a turnaround?

McClain, Arroyo and Encarnacion-Strand are all out with injuries currently, not sure on their respective return timelines though.

Also have Marte coming back from PED  suspension after 80 games.

Should at least get some kinda boost later in the summer, but don’t think it’ll be as big of an impact as they saw last year.

[Frisbee Slider]

Reds second baseman Matt McLain is hopeful he’ll be able to return to the lineup in August. 
 

Top prospect and standout shortstop Edwin Arroyo had a season ending labrum surgery.

Encarnacion-Strand: The 24-year-old is expected to be out for four to six weeks.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

But do they have more prospects to call up this year to spur a turnaround?

I think the ones that turned it around last season are as capable of doing so again as any prospect they may have. I wasn't sold on them last season and am not this season but it's too early to write them off. The only team I think might be close to be written off is the Cardinals. They seem to be continuing their decline from last season and the stopgap moves they made in the off season were a band aid on a gunshot wound. I think that's an organization in denial right now.

[wiguy94]

Skenes debut didn't really live up to the hype. Fastball command wasn't great and Cubs just weren't chasing it. Really drove the pitch count up. Line is currently at 4+ IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 1 HBP with 2 inherited runners left.

[TURBO]

Pirates are going to have a really solid, and maybe spectacular front two starters in Skenes and Jones.

It always feels like this team is on the rise, yet they never put it all together.

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

Pirates are going to have a really solid, and maybe spectacular front two starters in Skenes and Jones.

It always feels like this team is on the rise, yet they never put it all together.

Because they do things like throw away close to 450 PAs on McCutchen, Tellez and Taylor who have a collective OPS of around .600.

 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

It always feels like this team is on the rise, yet they never put it all together.

Nutting bought the team in 2007, since then the Pirates have gone 1,225-1,465, the 3rd worst record in MLB.

Since 2007 the Brewers have gone 1,403-1,290, the 8th best record in MLB.

Over the 17 years before Mark A bought the Brewers (1988-2004) they went 1,242-1,444, the 2nd worst record in MLB among non expansion teams.

The main reason the Pirates have been irrelevant for 14 of the last 17 seasons is the same reason the Brewers were mostly irrelevant for two decades before Selig sold the team…the owner sucks.

[tmwiese55]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

Nutting bought the team in 2007, since then the Pirates have gone 1,225-1,465, the 3rd worst record in MLB.

Since 2007 the Brewers have gone 1,403-1,290, the 8th best record in MLB.

Over the 17 years before Mark A bought the Brewers (1988-2004) they went 1,242-1,444, the 2nd worst record in MLB among non expansion teams.

The main reason the Pirates have been irrelevant for 14 of the last 17 seasons is the same reason the Brewers were mostly irrelevant for two decades before Selig sold the team…the owner sucks.

Wait I thought our owner sucked?

Of course you're generally right. But the main reason is small market lack of resources too. They're a small market team that hasn't come up with a plan to overcome it like MKE/TB have in order create consistent success. It's not easy.  They're just throwing stuff at the wall though. If/when these pitchers are good they'll be scrambling to find hitting and won't have enough (I guess that applies to MKE the last 4 years, but at least MKE has been good/competent for 15 years now.   And I guess to be fair, they did have that 3ish year run of being legit good where I think they got unlucky and had to play 1 game playoffs and lost them?  With a little luck they could've gotten a title like how KC did.  They won 98 games I think twice and didn't even get to win the division. 

[TURBO]

33 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Because they do things like throw away close to 450 PAs on McCutchen, Tellez and Taylor who have a collective OPS of around .600.

 

Funny you say that when we did the same exact thing with two of those three players.

😀 😥

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 5/11/2024 at 4:29 PM, wiguy94 said:

Skenes debut didn't really live up to the hype. Fastball command wasn't great and Cubs just weren't chasing it. Really drove the pitch count up. Line is currently at 4+ IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 1 HBP with 2 inherited runners left.

Start #2 looked pretty darn dominant against a team seeing him for the 2nd time.

[wiguy94]

9 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Start #2 looked pretty darn dominant against a team seeing him for the 2nd time.

Yeah his command was so much better today through the first 4 innings. Seemed like he was running out of gas in the 5th and 6th and looked more like the guy in his first start.

[Vgmastr]

Interesting that the Cardinals City Connect uniforms have another word for a toilet on them.  (I know it's a different spelling, but it's too good to pass up.)

[kestrel79]

Do people from St. Louis really say "The Lou"? Where does Nike get this stuff.

I do like that it's a red jersey, but that's about it. Also the hat seems really generic and a different font than what they normally use. 3 letters on a baseball cap just doesn't sit well with me...and I include our MKE hats in there as well.

[LouisEly]

5 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Do people from St. Louis really say "The Lou"?

Yep.  For a while Anheuser-Busch only distributed Budweiser Select in the STL-area, and it said on the packaging "Brewed for The Lou".

[BruisedCrew]

The Cardinals finished off last night’s suspended game and went on to win the regular game to complete a 3 game sweep of the Orioles. They’ve now won 8 of 10 starting with the Sunday game at AFF. 

[sveumrules]

Cardinals staying hot as they’ve scored four runs here bottom of eight to take a 7-4 lead over the Cubs.

[yfinn6]

If it's not going to be the Brewers, I would prefer the Cardinals, purely for Counsell drama. 

Yes, I have some growing up to do. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Cardinals staying hot as they’ve scored four runs here bottom of eight to take a 7-4 lead over the Cubs.

This Cardinals team seems to be showing a lot more fight and belief than last year's team. I feel like last year's team would have just rolled over after the terrible start. This year's team has battled.