LouisEly's Umpteenth Annual Packers Draft Preview and Predictions, 2024 Edition

[LouisEly]

First, tip of the cap to those who reached out directly and asked.  It means a lot.  Second, I think I've been doing this long enough and been successful enough where I've earned the right to have my own thread.  (And Brock prefers separate threads.)

Once again the draft hinges on what the Packers really think about their OL.  Is Walker the guy who struggled the first eight weeks or the guy who PFF had as the sixth highest-rated OT (LT or RT) weeks 9-18?  What do they think of Rhyan, who essentially was a rookie last year after the suspension the year before?  Can he make the jump?  Is Tom’s future at RT or OC (and will Tom stick around on an OC’s contract value or leave for a RT contract value)?

One thing is for sure about the OL – right now the Packers have only eight OL on the roster who have played an NFL snap, and of those, Caleb Jones has played exactly one special teams snap, Luke Tenuta has played seven offensive snaps, Sean Rhyan has played 183 offensive snaps, and a fourth is named Royce Newman.  Expect multiple OL selected, even if they think that Rhyan is ready.

For the 7th round I had fun with a bunch of guys who aren’t on anyone’s radar, so I might not hit on as many of them as I usually do.

1st Round (#25): Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa – ballhawk with 7 INTs over the last two seasons, returning three for TDs.  DeJean played mostly CB the last two seasons but also played their “cash”/hybrid safety position a little and that is where many are projecting him due to tight hips causing him to likely struggle with man & press coverage.  Has good size for a box/hybrid safety (6’1”, 202).  Only two weeks from being medically cleared, DeJean ran a 4.45 and a 4.43 at his individual pro day with a 38” vertical and is only 21 years old – the Packers have leaned towards younger players in the first round.  Outstanding punt returner, returned one for a TD last year and had a second called back.  (Replaces Darnell Savage)
If he’s still available:  Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington –  if the Packers are going to draft an OL in the first round it will likely be a guy who can play anywhere along the line, inside or outside, and people believe that Fautanu can play any of the five spots along the line.  Not the tallest, but has good arm length and outstanding footwork, lateral quickness, and knee bend.  Active hands and keeps his weight back to stay balanced.  The word “finesse” is not in his vocabulary.  Played LT the last three seasons but also has played some LG.  The Packers have had success with OT who are 6’4”.  
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama – While teammate Terrion Arnold is projected to go earlier by most, there’s a reason that teams threw at Arnold twice as much as they did McKinstry last season.  Smart, confident, outstanding in matching both outside and inside release.  More of a cover corner than playmaker as he only had two INTs over the last 3 seasons, but has rapid acceleration to close quickly on throws.  That, and it’s hard to get INTs when teams don’t throw at you.  Ran a 4.47 40 at their pro day (that Gutey saw in-person) with a Jones fracture in his foot.  Alexander and Stokes have had trouble staying healthy, Stokes is due $12M next year on a 5th year option that the Pack has to decide on by May 2nd, Alexander is due $18M in cash in 2025, and if both continue to have trouble being available they will need a corner both this year and long term.  Overall PFF grade of 88.8 last season, and no penalties on 39 targets.

2nd Round (#41):  Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M – physical, elite speed, and on a mission to find the ball carrier, Cooper plays every snap with intensity.  Good at dodging blockers and working through traffic to make the tackle and outstanding at sniffing out screens and spying on the QB.  Sometimes overshoots his mark, and lack of knee bend and high pad level can lead to inconsistencies with tackling, but had 17 TFLs and 8 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles last season.  (Replaces De’Vondre Campbell)
If he’s still available:  Graham Barton, OL, Duke – Barton started at LT at Duke the last three seasons, but did play a handful of games at OC in 2020 due to injuries along the line.  Barton’s arms are a little on the shorter side at 33” but has a decent 80” wingspan.  Wowed at his pro day running a 4.84 40, which would have been best among all OL at the combine, with 3-cone and SS times that would have been top-5.  But he did give up two sacks this season and last season and had a decent but not great PFF grade of 75.9 last season, thus interior is likely his best home with backing up OT.  I doubt the Packers will spend a 1st round pick on him if they view him only as an IOL as guards perhaps have the least positional value in the 1st round, but if the Packers believe that he can play OT with some better coaching and he’s there late in the 1st/early 2nd, I could see the Packers moving up to get him.  I don't think he'll go as high as some think - he missed three games with injury last season, and two of them were two of the three best teams they played last year (Notre Dame, Louisville) based on final poll rankings.  His body of work wasn't against all of their best opponents.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Jaylon Wright, RB, Tennessee – while the Packers spent on Josh Jacobs, in reality it isn’t likely to be a long-term contract and they might want some lightning to go with Jacobs’ thunder.  Wright averaged 7.4 YPC last season, 6.4 for his career, very impressive for going against SEC defenses.  Blazed a 4.38 40 at the combine, he’s explosive with breakaway speed and had a 10+ yard run on over 25% of his carries last season.  More linear and average vision, but has an outstanding jump cut to avoid defenders.  Caught 22 passes and many think he can be more of a passing threat than he was in college.  Overall PFF grade of 91.0 last year, just turned 21 2.5 weeks ago and is only 9 months younger than Braelon Allen.

2nd Round (#58):  Patrick Paul, OT, Houston – mountain of a man at 6’7.5”, 330, with arms for days (36.25”), getting around Paul is like trying to get around a Costco.  Paul’s pass blocking is well ahead of his run blocking and was credited with only two sacks against him over the last two seasons on almost 1,100 pass block snaps and an overall PFF grade of 81.1 last season.  Worked hard to improve his technique, looked good in the position drills at the combine, and his 3-cone and 40 times were impressive for his size, culminating in a 9.69 RAS.  Can struggle to sustain and finish as a run blocker, but the strength is there – he put up 30 reps on the bench at the combine which is almost unheard of for arms as long as his. Has as much upside as any OT in the draft.  (Replaces David Bakhtiari)
If they get beat to Edgerrin Cooper:  Payton Wilson, LB, NC State – the Chuck Bednarik Defensive Player of the Year and Butkus Award winner, he has the size, length, and athleticism to be a 1st round pick but his injury history and age (6th year senior) will push him down.  Blazed a WR-like 4.43 40 at the combine and he was a tackling machine last year with 138 total tackles, 17.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 3 INTs, and PFF credited him with only 6 misses on 98 tackle attempts last season for a grade of 89.9.  Watching him in pursuit is like watching the National Geographic channel – you don’t see him and then out of nowhere like a cheetah he gets his prey.  Can run in man coverage with any TE in the NFL.  I think his injury history is a little overblown as he played in at least 11 games in four seasons, but it’s a definite risk.  Brother of Brewers RPH Bryse Wilson.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon – might be the yin to the yang of Alexander, Jackson is a tall (6’4”) corner with length (32.75” arms) and an impressive 1.50 10-yard split.  Transfer from Alabama who, understandably, had trouble getting on the field with McKinstry and Arnold there.  Has the physicality and size of a safety with NFL-caliber run support, he could probably move to safety if needed.  Smooth backpedal, can change directions without having to gear down, and showed a knack for reading the receiver’s eyes and getting his head around in time to make the play.  Only one year of starting experience, which shows with some inconsistency on the tape and hit-or-miss with press coverage, but when he gets his punch in the receiver is in trouble. Should get more consistency with more playing time.  Gave up a passer rating of only 41.7 when targeted last season with a PFF grade of 80.5.  Did get suspended at Alabama, so there is some character risk.

3rd Round (#88):  Jarian Jones, CB, Florida State – Jones has excelled as a slot corner at FSU with a passer rating against of 25.3 this year and 41.7 last year for a PFF grade of 90.1.  Showed his athleticism at the combine running a 4.38 40 with a 39.5” vertical.  Urgent, shows above-average aggression in both pass coverage and in run support, and can play outside or inside.  Sometimes struggles with footwork and matching releases with consistency.  (Replaces Rasul Douglas)
If he’s still available:  Kingsley Suamataia, OL, BYU – athletic OT who played both LT and RT at BYU, Suamataia has good size and length as well as lateral quickness.  More upside than production at this point, showed sloppy hand placement and oversetting that led to lots of inconsistencies in his game as evidenced by his PFF grade of 67.5, which is why I don’t think he’ll go as early as most do (NFL.com agrees).  Played better on the right side in 2022 than on the left side in 2023.  He has said that he’s willing to play any position on the OL including OC, and might be a better fit inside at least early in his career while he works on his technique.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Cole Bishop, S, Utah – Big time athleticism coupled with physical nature and good size, Bishop was a three year starter for Utah who had 21.5 TFLs, 7.5 sacks, and 3 INTs for his career.  Hustle never shuts off and isn’t afraid to blister a receiver who comes across his path.  Showed his athleticism at the combine with a 4.45 40 and 39” vertical.  Does have short arms, which can lead to some tackling inconsistencies and trouble wrapping up, and his desire to make plays can sometimes cause him to leave his zone or overrun a play, but he can be that box safety who can cover TEs and stop the run (if he can wrap up).  

3rd round (#91):  Tyrone Tracy, RB, Purdue – former WR turned RB, Tracy is a low-mileage runner who is just showing what he can be.  Didn’t put up a ton of production because of Purdue’s horrible offense, but he averaged 6.3 YPC and has caught 113 passes in his career.  Showed his athleticism, explosiveness, and agility at the combine.  Bendy runner with loose hips, he can traverse interior run lanes with ease and had the most yards after contact (4.44) of any RB in this draft class.  Still learning the position and his consistency reflects that, but can threaten LBs running routes out of the backfield or on gadget plays until he learns the nuances of the position.  (Replaces Aaron Jones)
If he’s still available:  Hunter Nourzad, OC, Penn State – former all-Ivy League RT turned 2nd team All-B1G OC at Penn State, Nourzad is known for NFL-caliber core strength, technique, and body control.  Unlike most of the OC in the draft, he has adequate length with 33+” arms and is strong enough to handle NTs lined up across from him.  Good pad level, quick pass sets, with the athleticism to get out on pulls.  Can get a little over his skis and whiff on blocks and can have issues with quick change of direction in protection.  Started eight games at LG at Penn State in addition to OC and has taken snaps at RG, and the Packers like interior linemen who have experience at OT.
Don't be surprised if it's:  Marshawn Kneeland, DE, Western Michigan – the writing is on the wall for Preston Smith, so the Packers could be looking for a DE to develop as they weren’t afraid to draft Gary after signing both of the Smiths.  Competed in track & field in HS and that shows in his athleticism, posting a DB-like time of 7.02 in the 3-cone and 4.18 in the short shuttle on top of a 35.5” vertical.  Non-stop motor, Kneeland had 31 pressures in 2023 but only 4.5 sacks primarily due to a lack of diversity and finesse in his rush attack.  I think that Wooden is going to move to end, given that he’s listed at only 273 lbs on the Packers website, but he seems like the developmental type the Packers like.

4th Round (#126):  Javon Foster, OT, Missouri – first team All-SEC and third team All American, Foster went into this season needing to improve his footwork and he did exactly that, resulting in only one sack credited against him on 449 pass block snaps and an overall PFF grade of 84.9.  Not the most athletic tackle, but he has long arms and gets the job done.  Outstanding run blocker, he’s a major reason for Cody Schrader running for 1,600 yards, but he isn’t a mauler – I watched a couple of their games and he did an uncanny job of always getting into position to wall off his defender to create the run lane.  3-year starter at LT who started a couple of games at RT and played RT at the Senior Bowl.  Dominates in a phone booth, can probably move inside and be an excellent guard if he can improve his knee bend.  Packers attended Missouri’s pro day.  (Replaces Yosh Nijman)
If he’s still available:  Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC – compact bowling-ball of a RB at 5’9”, 220, who has NFL-caliber burst and twitchy feet to make sudden lateral cuts.  Lloyd averaged 7.1 YPC last season showcasing his big play ability, but that may be partially due to weak Pac-12 defenses as he only averaged 5.2 at South Carolina.  Caught 34 passes in his career and has the shake to make open-field tacklers miss, but also has had issues with ball security.  Packers attended USC’s pro day.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Kitan Oladapo, S, Oregon State – bigger box safety who has played every position – box, deep, and slot – and has played almost an equal number of snaps at each. Went from walk-on to team captain and helped set the secondary pre-snap.  Has the length and ability to cover both Y and F tight ends as well as play the run.  Can play deep, but limitations in deep speed likely mean a future as a box safety with the ability to play slot.  The Packers like versatility in their safeties, and they don’t get more versatile than Oladapo.  PFF overall grade of 88.3 last season.

5th Round (#169):  Dominique Hampton, S, Washington – has some of the best physical traits of any safety in his class with size (6’2”, 215), length (6’7” wingspan), speed (4.51 40), and agility (6.83 3-cone), but that doesn’t always show up on tape.  Length wins in contested catch situations and has put some big hits on receivers coming into his zone, but bad angles and body control sometimes lead to arm tackles.  Can be a special teams ace while they see if NFL coaching can maximize his physical traits, but the upside is there.  (Replaces Jonathan Owens)
If he’s still available:  Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina – Gutey has said that he wants to get back to “drafting QBs”, and Jordan Love hasn’t signed an extension yet.  Capable of getting through full-field reads, patient to let routes and spacing develop, but doesn’t quite have the arm strength for every throw and has below-average height.  Can extend plays, more elusive than a running threat.  Excellent ball placement at every level of the field. Ranked 3rd in FBS in On-Tgt %, accuracy doesn't suffer when he's on the move.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Tylan Grable, OT, UCF – former high school QB who threw for 3,000 yards turned college TE turned college LT, Grable is still relatively new to OT but has the athleticism and footwork of a tight end.  Has nimble feet and moves well in space with good lateral quickness to win the corner.  Credited with no sacks and only 10 pressures this past season by PFF, a big improvement over 2022 and evidence that he is still learning the position.  Good upper body strength. If the Packers think Walker and Tom are the franchise tackles then Grable can have time to develop behind them and learn to use the athleticism he has to become the next great day 3 Packers OL draft pick.  9.83 RAS.

6th round (#202):  Matt Lee, OC, Miami – the Packers need a backup for Myers, and Lee is perhaps the best pass blocking center in the draft.  PFF graded him with a pass blocking grade of 89.1 last year and 90.6 in 2022 with UCF before transferring to Miami, and only one sack attributed to him in over 1,300 pass block snaps the last three seasons.  Fiery, outspoken, athletic, does a good job of absorbing contact but concerns about lack of size (weighed only 288 at the Shrine Game, 301 at the combine) and holding up against bull rushers push him down.  Don’t need him in 2024, so that gives the Pack a year to focus on bulking up.  9.85 RAS.  (Fills void)
If he’s still available:  Ryan Watts, DB, Texas – miscast as a CB at Texas, projecting Watts to safety is what has teams interested as Watts has the size (6’3”, 208), length (34.5” arms), and athleticism he demonstrated at the combine along with the demeanor to be a box safety who can line up over TEs in the slot.  It will take him a while to learn the position, but can be a special teams demon in the short term while he works on the transition.  9.81 RAS.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Kristian Boyd, DT, Northern Iowa – FCS All-American who put up 38 reps on the bench at his pro day, Boyd participated in the Shrine Bowl but was not invited to the combine.  Graded as an elite interior pass rusher, but that was at the FCS level and only registered 10.5 sacks in 49 career games.

6th Round (#219):  Jarrett Kingston, OG, USC – excellent athleticism combined with strength (32 reps on his pro day) gives Kingston a 9.93 RAS, coupled with the grit and know-how to play guard.  The concern with Kingston is his lack of length and relatively short arms (32”).  Well-trained in pass protection, his pass slides are quick and has the athleticism to make blocks on the 2nd level and puts strain into every run rep.  Transfer from Washington State where he started 16 games at LG and 10 games at LT, and the Packers like guards who have experience at tackle.  (Replaces Jon Runyan)
If he’s still available:  Omar Brown, DB, Nebraska – Brown spent three seasons at Northern Iowa before transferring to Nebraska and has played CB, safety, and slot.  Gutey has said that he likes multi-position flexibility and Brown has that.  Didn’t get invited to the combine, but ran 4.53 40 at his pro day with a very good 10-yard split (1.53) and 3-cone time (6.97).  PFF grade of 82.8 last season, credited with 11 missed tackles on 60 attempts but didn’t give up any TDs.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Tyrice Knight, LB, UTEP – big time tackle production over the last three years with 140 total tackles, 15.5 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks last year alone.  Knight tied with Clemson’s Jeremiah Trotter for the highest career PFF grade of all draft-eligible LBs and plays somewhat of a floating freestyle brand of play in the 2nd level looking for ways to knife his way in to make the tackle.  Adequate athleticism for the position, sometimes his guesswork gets him out of position and needs to improve his blocking scheme recognition.  Packers attended UTEP’s pro day, and the last time they drafted someone from UTEP it worked out pretty well.

7th round (#245):  Jackson Sirmon, LB, Cal – 2022 first team All Pac-12 and preseason 4th team All-American, Sirmon suffered a biceps tear in the team’s 6th game which ended his season.  Recovered in time to play in the Senior Bowl where he had five tackles and a PBU but wasn’t invited to the combine.  Starter at Washington, transferred to Cal to play for his father who was the Bears DC and played LB in the NFL.  Ranked 9th among all draft-eligible LBs in career PFF grade, he long-snapped in high school and was Cal’s backup long snapper.  His short-shuttle time at his pro day was within 0.04 seconds of being the top mark among all LBs in the last three combines.  Excellent technique, consistent, size for a SAM, but perhaps limited in coverage.  (Competes with Eric Wilson/Kristian Welch)
If he’s still available:  Tejhaun Palmer, WR, UAB – bigger receiver that plays up to it, he made Bruce Feldman’s 2023 freaks list and backed it up running a 4.45 40 at their pro day with 19 reps on the bench.  Averaged over 18 YPC and had 7 touchdown receptions with at least one from every 20 yard delineation of the field; only Brian Thomas and Troy Franklin can also make that claim.  Made honorable mention in the fastest players in college in 2023 with one run of 21 mph and had just one drop this season on 66 targets.  Lacks suddenness, has tight hips which might limit routes he can be successful with.  Born in Milwaukee, WI.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Giovanni Manu, OT, University of British Columbia – maybe literally the biggest secret of the 2024 draft is 6’7 3/8”, 352 lb Manu, who is a former basketball player turned LT.  Perhaps the freak of all freaks, the Packers – along with half the league – attended his pro day where he lollygagged somewhere between a 5.06 and 4.96 40 with a 33.5” vertical.  Yes, at 352 lbs.  The Packers followed up with a top-30 visit.  His basketball tape isn’t going to remind anyone of Robert “Tractor” Traylor much less Zion Williamson, but if the Packers are happy with their backups he’s someone who can be stashed for a couple of years to see if they can develop that combination of size and athleticism.

7th round (#255):  Jack Westover, H-Back/FB, Washington – former walk-on and high school basketball player who didn’t play football until his senior year in high school, Westover was offered a PWO at Washington after impressing at one of their camps.  Westover was 3rd on the Huskies in receptions in 2023 and has 87 career receptions plus plenty of special teams experience.  Has a knack to know where the soft spots in the zone are to be a safety valve when the downfield receivers aren’t open.  Started as a FB at UW and moved to more of an H-Back role.  Couldn’t participate at the combine due to injury, but has shown the speed to get over the top of LBs.  (Replaces Josiah Deguara)
If he’s still available:  Dallas Gant, LB, Toledo – former 4-star recruit who had difficulty getting on the field at Ohio State, Gant transferred to Toledo where his father played football and had two outstanding seasons.  3rd highest career PFF grade among all draft-eligible LBs, Gant was credited with only eight missed tackles on 96 tackle attempts this last year for a PFF grade of 87.  High football intelligence, long arms, but a little lean and won't offer much as a blitzer.
Don’t be surprised if it’s:  Alex Johnson, CB, UCLA – one year starter who made the most of it, notching 5 INTs.  Fluid athlete, ran a blazing 4.40 40, showed good explosiveness at their pro day, and Gutey was there to see it in-person.  Below average in run support, needs to play with more physicality, could get looks at FS.

Who I'll probably regret leaving out - Cooper Beebe, OG, Kansas; Michael Hall, DT, Ohio State; Kiran Amegadjie, OL, Yale; Mark Perry, S, TCU; Kamal Hadden, CB, Tennessee

UDFAs:
Rocky Lombardi, QB, Northern Illinois
Gavin Hardison, QB, UTEP
Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy
Luke Benson, TE/H-Back, Georgia Tech
Devaughan Vele, WR, Utah
Donovan Jennings, OT, South Florida
X'Zauvea Gadlin, OG, Liberty
Jake Levengood, OC, Oregon State

Casey Rogers, DT, Oregon
Michael Mason, DE, Coastal Carolina
Justin Blazek, Edge, UW-Platteville
Bryce Gallagher, LB, Northwestern
Chris Edwards, SS, Arizona State
Cam Allen, FS, Purdue
Myles Sims, CB, Georgia Tech

[ErnieRilesBrianGiles]

Look forward to this every year, so for the umpteenth time, thank you! 

[BrewerFan]

I'd be happy with any of the guys in the first 3 rounds...but I would be VERY surprised if they use pick #41 on Jaylen Wright. I like him...I'm not sure he's the type of back the Packers would pick, but I'd love to see the Packers draft him...just not at 41. I feel like we have positions that are just clear-cut needs at IOL, LB...I'd assume DB unless they think much more of AJJ and have more belief in Stokes/Nixon and even Valentine who played well in my opinion, but didn't grade well.

But taking Wright at #41 just seems like a high price to pay and Davis from Kentucky would likely be around a couple rounds later. I wish they'd focus more on that change of pace back who can be a HR hitter. 

 

Among the guys you left out, Beebe is a guy I think could easily go from #58 to #91, but not sure he's the type of player the Packers take, so not sure you'll regret leaving him out. I'd be a fan. Amegadjie in that same range. He is a really interesting prospect and the Safety from TCU, Perry looks like a guy who could be a STs demon and also has that ability to be a box safety while also playing CF. Same with Hamilton or Watts for that matter. 

I also wonder what they think of DeJean. Without him doing the agility testing, I doubt they can feel comfortable with him as a CB...but they also don't need to. At worst he has the physical tools to be a safety who, again, is a great compliment to McKinney. 

I'm not even sure if he's "better" near the LOS or in coverage. You could do so much with both of them on the field at safety. Both can play the slot, the run, cover the middle, and play in space.

Anything else would be nitpicking...like Milton of Rattler. Not a fan of the latter and I think character issues would turn the Packers off, but it feels like your point here is more of a talented QB they could take to get back to trying to develop good backup QBs rather than Rattler in particular. 

 

This seems as good as any roundup. There are...what, 3 near guarantees with the Packers in the early rds.
1-High RAS score/22 or younger
2-Big time school/competition
3-Premium position

So everyone pretty well fits that, especially early save for the LBers and an OT from Yale or Bishop...though does LB/S become a premium position when they're fundamental to the defensive change you've made? Or maybe they're just exceptions as Quay, Savage and then the older Wyatt were.

[patrickgpe]

Really like DeJean in the first and Barton and Bishop as a 2nd day picks. Nice job as always!

[sveumrules]

I’d draft Rocky Lombardi #1 overall on name alone.

[OldHeidelberg]

I saw an over/under betting chart somewhere that had Wilson at 26 and ECooper at 41. I have also seen Wilson mocked to the packers in round 1 at least once so it feels like he may have passed Cooper as the top off ball LB. I would be thrilled to land either at #58. 

[LouisEly]

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

But taking Wright at #41 just seems like a high price to pay and Davis from Kentucky would likely be around a couple rounds later.

I had Davis on my radar when I first started drafting this out.  But the more I looked into him, the less I liked him, and the more I looked into Wright the more I thought that Wright is a far superior prospect.

If you take away Davis' game against Florida last season - who ranked 81st in FBS in defense rushing yards/game and 110th in FBS in defense rushing yards/carry - here's his numbers:  173 carries, 849 yards, 4.91 YPC.  Other than that Florida game, he didn't do much.  Yes, OL plays a big factor, but outside of Florida he only had one good game against a quality opponent - Missouri.  Outside of Missouri, the only other games where he had either over 100 yards rushing or over 6.0 YPC were Ball State and Akron.  Didn't do either of those against FCS Eastern Kentucky.

I'm a little higher than most on Wright - I think that if you average 6.0 and 7.4 YPC in the SEC and 1/4th of your carries are for 10 yards or more, you're something special.  Wright also just turned 21 years old 2.5 weeks ago; Ray Davis is 24 and will be 25 in November. 

[LouisEly]

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I feel like we have positions that are just clear-cut needs at IOL

Oh, I agree.  I was looking for IOL help in the first three rounds, but the list of IOL who can play guard who I have a 3rd round grade or higher was a really short list.   This is a great year for OT, but a weak year for OG.  Lots of the top OT are probably too tall/too high of a pad level for guard.  Then there's the issue that many players have trouble initially switching from the left side (i.e. played LT in college) to playing the right side if they haven't played on the right side, as RG is where they need competition/depth.  Almost all of the top OC prospects have really short arms and can probably only play center, as that will present a challenge against NFL DTs at guard.  That just doesn't leave a long list, and between Myers and Tom they don't need to spend a high pick on a guy who can only play OC.

I think that OG has perhaps the least positional value in the 1st round (excluding FB) and highly doubt the Packers would take a guard in the 1st.  For the 2nd round, a guy would have to at least be able to competently back up at OT (Elgton Jenkins, Daryn Colledge, etc.) for the Packers to take him.  That leaves the 3rd round and there just weren't many guys there except for Nourzad and Beebe.  Suamataia would need to move inside and needs lots of technique work, and with Kiran you have the questions about the big step up in competition from the Ivy League.

I think that Foster can make a really good guard as well as being able to play RT.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I had Davis on my radar when I first started drafting this out.  But the more I looked into him, the less I liked him, and the more I looked into Wright the more I thought that Wright is a far superior prospect.

If you take away Davis' game against Florida last season - who ranked 81st in FBS in defense rushing yards/game and 110th in FBS in defense rushing yards/carry - here's his numbers:  173 carries, 849 yards, 4.91 YPC.  Other than that Florida game, he didn't do much.  Yes, OL plays a big factor, but outside of Florida he only had one good game against a quality opponent - Missouri.  Outside of Missouri, the only other games where he had either over 100 yards rushing or over 6.0 YPC were Ball State and Akron.  Didn't do either of those against FCS Eastern Kentucky.

I'm a little higher than most on Wright - I think that if you average 6.0 and 7.4 YPC in the SEC and 1/4th of your carries are for 10 yards or more, you're something special.  Wright also just turned 21 years old 2.5 weeks ago; Ray Davis is 24 and will be 25 in November. 

I'm not really looking at stats(I couldn't tell you what either rushed for without looking).

I'm looking at how he reads blocks and sets his blocks up. Aaron Jones played at UTEP. 

This is a play I don't think Wright can make. Wright is more likely to take the ball 90 yards...I don't think he's more likely to keep churning out positive plays. 

As for the age, I'm generally looking at a back for one contract. So if Davis is 28 of 26 at the end of his deal...it's not that big of a deal for a guy who'll probably be there in Rd5. At #41, I'm looking for a premium position. 

 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Oh, I agree.  I was looking for IOL help in the first three rounds, but the list of IOL who can play guard who I have a 3rd round grade or higher was a really short list.   This is a great year for OT, but a weak year for OG.  Lots of the top OT are probably too tall/too high of a pad level for guard.  Then there's the issue that many players have trouble initially switching from the left side (i.e. played LT in college) to playing the right side if they haven't played on the right side, as RG is where they need competition/depth.  Almost all of the top OC prospects have really short arms and can probably only play center, as that will present a challenge against NFL DTs at guard.  That just doesn't leave a long list, and between Myers and Tom they don't need to spend a high pick on a guy who can only play OC.

I think that OG has perhaps the least positional value in the 1st round (excluding FB) and highly doubt the Packers would take a guard in the 1st.  For the 2nd round, a guy would have to at least be able to competently back up at OT (Elgton Jenkins, Daryn Colledge, etc.) for the Packers to take him.  That leaves the 3rd round and there just weren't many guys there except for Nourzad and Beebe.  Suamataia would need to move inside and needs lots of technique work, and with Kiran you have the questions about the big step up in competition from the Ivy League.

I think that Foster can make a really good guard as well as being able to play RT.

It's a big step up from the Ivy, there's no question there. I don't think Suamatia would have to kick inside, but I think he could and I think he'd be an immediate upgrade. Morgan can play OT and OG. 

Rosengarten, Coleman, Fisher, Puni, McCormick, I think all fit the athletic thresholds and could easily go in the top 3 rds. Zinter I believe would have been a 2nd rd pick without the injury.

This OL class is deeper than it has been in years. Even guys like Beebe are good enough that being just limited to OG, I think they're worth a 2nd rd pick. He's a plug-and-play guy who immediately upgrades the OL.  He's square and limited to OG only, but if the guy can play there for 10 years, I don't think that's a big deal.

On the other end, someone like Guyton is tall, but he bends so well, that I don't think he'd have much problem playing OG...or OT. 

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Now we know it’s mid-April with this post. Thanks again, LouisEly!

[JosephC]

I wouldn't mind a DeJean pick at all.  I think he's a guy who could be above average/good in just about any system, and would be a potential superstar in the defense where he would primarily be playing zone.  He'd be great in the old-school Tony Dungy defense.  He'd be great playing RCB in the defense that Ed Donatell implemented when he was the Packer's defensive coordinator.  I don't think he's strictly a system player, he is instinctive and athletic enough to still be good in a system that isn't the perfect fit.  Also, the moment he steps onto an NFL field he will likely be a better tackler than 90% of NFL cornerbacks and probably well over 50% of NFL safeties.

After really looking over the landscape the last couple of weeks, I think Troy Fautanu at #25 is a pretty unrealistic scenario.  Maybe he'd be available at #20 for a trade up but I'd put chances of that at less than 50/50.  Graham Barton was a left tackle, but nobody is projecting him there in the NFL.  Take him out of the left tackle equation and it's only Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu as solid first rounders that were regular left tackles in college.  Chances are pretty good that some team will take Guyton and move him to left tackle thinking he is the next Jason Peters.  Morgan is the next LT on the board, I think he will go late round 1, but IMO #25 is too much of a reach.  Fuaga, Latham, Mims...all right tackles who are very likely RT in the NFL.

The potential dropper that seemed pretty safe as a top 20 pick a few weeks ago that I now think is a possibility at #25 is CB-Nate Wiggins.  I have significant concerns about his size because he is a really thin, narrow-framed guy and one has to wonder how he'll hold up...but his build is very much like Al Harris and he didn't have any problem staying on the field for the Packers.  I've really soured on #25 because I see LB, S and LT at the three big needs and I don't think there will be an available player from any of those spots being worth the #25 pick.  If Wiggins makes it there, I think he'd be the guy I'd pick.

At #41, I have to admit that I've really soured on Edgerrin Cooper.  A month ago I would have put him as the top linebacker in the draft.  But I've just read too many reports on him that say super athlete, but poor instincts, can't read his keys, alway in the wrong gap, etc,  I don't think I could take him at #41.  I lean towards Trotter and Colson being the best linebackers in this draft.  And with Trotter, he's probably there at #58 and that would be an easy pick for me to make.

I don't see a scenario where Graham Barton makes it to #41.  Going through the lists over the last week, I think he's drafted ahead of Jackson Powers-Johnson and is probably about a 95% chance of being a first round pick.

I don't think the Packers should take a RB in the first two rounds (not just based on the need factor, I don't see value there either).  But if I was the GM I would have moved on from Dillon because there are a lot of attractive candidates in rounds 3-5...get younger at the position...and frankly everything I heard from Packer fans through the first half of last season was how mediocre Dillon looked.  Seemed like the right time to move on and get a younger player in that spot. 

Patrick Paul and Javon Foster are two non-round one left tackles who are pretty reasonable projections in late round two and in round four.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers take either of those players.  Foster probably goes a little higher, but going at the end of round four would not be a shock.  One think I can't see is that Paul, Foster, Lee and Kingston makes four drafted offensive lineman, very much doubt the Packers do that.

[CheezWizHed]

Excellent job as usual @LouisEly.

I've had an on-and-off man-crush with Dejean this offseason. But I'm thinking he seems like a great fit for the team.  Could play safety, slot, or CB; which fits the interchangeable piece the Packers want in the backfield.  He is also 21 and a 9+ RAS athleticism has him fit the mold (though I hate it when players skip the agility drills).  

I'm also very up on Patrick Paul.  OT isn't a place for an immediate starter (unless Tom does move), so having a high upside, medium floor player sit and develop a year seems like a great plan. 

If they get a DeJean (DB), Cooper/Wilson (LB), Paul (OT), Bishop (S), along with later round RB and C/G, This would be a great draft. 

[Joseph Zarr]

[Joseph Zarr]

On 4/16/2024 at 4:56 PM, LouisEly said:

One thing is for sure about the OL – right now the Packers have only eight OL on the roster who have played an NFL snap, and of those, Caleb Jones has played exactly one special teams snap, Luke Tenuta has played seven offensive snaps, Sean Rhyan has played 183 offensive snaps, and a fourth is named Royce Newman.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

OT isn't a place for an immediate starter (unless Tom does move)

One thing that has been overlooked regarding Rob Demovsky's comments about Zach Tom is that not only did he claim that some Packers personnel thought Tom could be a HoF center, he also claimed that they thought he could be an All-Pro guard.  Not exactly a slight.  With the OT class as deep as it is, I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers grab multiple tackles and, if one is good enough, Tom slides inside to guard to get the best five on the field.

[Joseph Zarr]

I am officially prepared for the draft. Epic offerings as per usual @LouisEly. Thank you for doing this. You can assure yourself this will be printed off and on the proverbial couch come draft weekend.

[OldHeidelberg]

48 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

One thing that has been overlooked regarding Rob Demovsky's comments about Zach Tom is that not only did he claim that some Packers personnel thought Tom could be a HoF center, he also claimed that they thought he could be an All-Pro guard.  Not exactly a slight.  With the OT class as deep as it is, I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers grab multiple tackles and, if one is good enough, Tom slides inside to guard to get the best five on the field.

I think last camp he was competing at C, RG, and RT, the idea being he was going to end up a starter somewhere. Then Nijman must have disappointed, and Tom was the RT.  So I agree, if he is better inside and they land a RT at the top of the draft they may still move Tom.

[wallus]

I would bet a lot of money that Barton will not last til 41. (probably won't be there at 25)

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I am officially prepared for the draft. Epic offerings as per usual @LouisEly. Thank you for doing this. You can assure yourself this will be printed off and on the proverbial couch come draft weekend.

I am expecting pictures of that printout complete with stains from Cheetos dust, Guy Fieri's Flavortown Secret Sauce, and Coors Light.

[Joseph Zarr]

42 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I am expecting pictures of that printout complete with stains from Cheetos dust, Guy Fieri's Flavortown Secret Sauce, and Coors Light.

I shall bring forth pics with stains of dry rubbed smoked chicken wings; Mexicali Sweet Potato fries; Brick oven pizza and farm crafted hard crabapple cider. This I can oblige. 😅

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, JosephC said:

 

The potential dropper that seemed pretty safe as a top 20 pick a few weeks ago that I now think is a possibility at #25 is CB-Nate Wiggins.  I have significant concerns about his size because he is a really thin, narrow-framed guy and one has to wonder how he'll hold up...but his build is very much like Al Harris and he didn't have any problem staying on the field for the Packers.  I've really soured on #25 because I see LB, S and LT at the three big needs and I don't think there will be an available player from any of those spots being worth the #25 pick.  If Wiggins makes it there, I think he'd be the guy I'd pick.

Agree with most of the rest...though I'd have both Wilson despite his age and Cooper still as good picks at #41. 

Wiggins is a helluva Cover Corner, but he's just so bad vs the run...you'd really have to try and pack some weight on him. I think it's something you could deal with if you upgrade the MLB and get another safety who's good vs the run like Hicks or Bishop, but it'd be a weakness. I think some of the "threshold," discussions get a little too stringent, but he'd be quite a bit lighter than they ever go at CB.

Fautanu or Mitchell seems like the most likely trade-up options(~18 for Fautanu and probably up to ~14 or so for Mitchell...which would be costly).

 

[LouisEly]

On 4/18/2024 at 6:16 PM, Joseph Zarr said:

I shall bring forth pics with stains of dry rubbed smoked chicken wings; Mexicali Sweet Potato fries; Brick oven pizza and farm crafted hard crabapple cider. This I can oblige. 😅

The Flavortown Secret Sauce would be outstanding to dip those fries into.  And if those wings are spicy, a little Litehouse Original Blue Cheese dressing will top them off very nicely.

I had always wondered why crabapples exist.  They seemed useless, until now.

[Joseph Zarr]

7 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The Flavortown Secret Sauce would be outstanding to dip those fries into.  And if those wings are spicy, a little Litehouse Original Blue Cheese dressing will top them off very nicely.

I had always wondered why crabapples exist.  They seemed useless, until now.

Crabapple jelly and hard cider are primo uses. They also are prolific flowering trees and, as such, provide several functions with other Rose family fruiting shrubs/trees or fruiting plants that share similar bloom times - they bring in the pollinators in droves. 

Litehouse is based out this way in Sandpoint, Idaho (about 50 minutes form my farm). I actually much prefer Toby's Blue Cheese dressing. If you haven't tried it, just hands down a better more robust Blue Cheese dressing - you should try it and let me know what you think. If you can't get it near you, I'll send you some. Seriously, it's that worth it.

Flavortown Secret Sauce? Never heard of it. Excited to try it! I'll see if I can find it before this weekend and report back.

[nate82]

I think the only player you are missing is OT Kiran Amegadjie.  Who looks like he has moved from a day 3 grade to somewhere in the 2nd round. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/2024-nfl-draft-visits-kiran-Amegadjie