Packers 2024 Season Thread

[BrewerFan]

On 10/4/2024 at 7:26 AM, CheezWizHed said:

Yeah, I missed what you meant the first time.  I do remember he was pretty limited in Long(well) FGs, but I didn't remember being that restricted.  Maybe that is the approach with Narv from now on?

I don't know...he seems like Carlson. He's better relative to the league the further away he is!

It's not like Narveson has missed the 55 yard kicks.

I'm convincing myself that Carlson was a product of his own lack of confidence, BUT then equally the bad snaps and holds(he missed plenty on his own to be clear, but some of the big ones were the later). 

[BrewerFan]

16 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Precisely. Nobody has heard a word from Doubs' side of the 'story' or from his side of the fence here. Respectfully, to all of us, I suggest we wait and see what is actually going on here. Also, Kurt likely has some contacts in the locker room:

He was a no-show to practice and he said nothing.

He gets no benefit of the doubt and I actually don't think Kurt has connections inside the locker room.

I trust the people who do this for a living at this point. Kurt was a player, so it's not an insult, but he's constantly defending players vs the franchise when when they're wrong. 

You no show for your job in the NFL....that's a big deal. Glad it wasn't a family emergency(though, they almost always have an agent communicate that and then they excuse the absence). 

 

7 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Honestly yeah, I think the Chiefs say no to that. I think Doubs is a nice #3. I'd hesitate to call him a #2. He's never graded out particularly well analytically. You could argue he's the 4th most talented receiver on the roster. I think he's closer to "just a guy" than he is being what people think. I think he's steady in the same way that Allen Lazard was steady here. You need guys like that, but they're not incredibly hard to find. 

I don't think he'll be particularly missed tomorrow, although it's not ideal that Watson is out too. 

I think Watson is going to be missed a lot. Just watch the plays the ball doesn't go to him and he's constantly got two men on him(which is a problem as despite that and him being healthy the first 3+ games, we haven't gotten the passing game going). 

But Doubs is more than a #4. A #3 is a very valuable pick, so I don't think the Chiefs do that either, but I think that Doubs is a very talented player. I think he's got some Greg Jennings to his game, he's smart, he finds the open spot.

I get the Lazard comp, but as a WR, route runner, pass catcher, he's better. Lazard was a goon who could play almost a hybrid TE/WR role. I think both of these are losses, but Doubs was preventable.

 

Though, somehow Watson isn't ruled out for tomorrow's game yet(while Wyatt is). Obviously, he won't play, but interesting that he's merely doubtful. 

[kestrel79]

Agreed I think that's what stings, having Doubs out along with Watson right now. You'd think he'd be looking forward to this opportunity to step up. We need him. 

Unless he's out of favor with Love or something and there's more internal stuff going on.

[HarveysWBs]

There was some discussion in the NFL thread about our defense when the Saleh stuff came up in conversation, so I thought I’d move over here with my thoughts. I don’t know what Hafley’s defense is going to be (I think 8 or 9 games is when I want to see this thing clicking a bit more than it has, and that would be right about when the offense turned it around last year), but it seems to be a perfect marriage of plan and player when it comes to McKinney, who probably needs no more discussion at this point. He’s doing things we haven’t seen around here since Woodson, and unlike for some people on the defense, Hafley’s scheme and McKinney’s game seems very sympatico.

This brings me to one of the other infusions of talent from the offseason, Evan Williams. When you watch that film breakdown, you can see the proof of his studying and the intelligence coming together. Not only does he anticipate and make good plays, he learns from mistakes and reads tendencies to make in-game adjustments, too. Coaches raved about him in the pre-draft process, and I can see why. As kind of a small player with 4.6 speed, who knows how long he’ll have starting ability, but he might have it already, and he seems to play fast enough to be able to keep adequate legs into a second contract. He looks like a really nice find for Gutekunst and the scouting department.

All this good news and feel-good talk about the safeties actually brings me to my biggest fear for this season. Apart from the injuries (which can tank anyone’s season at any time), the thing I worry about most is that this defense will never quite come together this year because we don’t have the personnel it needs up front. I think Gutekunst has mostly proven he can identify players a system needs and go get those guys in free agency and the draft. That’s all well and good for the safety overhaul this year, which has clearly worked. But the defensive front is almost all holdovers from previous years and a different scheme.

Now I’m not going to exonerate the players entirely; while I’m not a film rat or anything, it seems entirely fair to say that Clark, Gary, and Smith (and probably LVN) need to deliver the goods and they’re good enough to do it in any scheme. Jon Meerdink writes for APC and has a great podcast and site of his own, and he’s been compiling pass rush stats for year over year comparison. This year, it is a grim read. It is getting to the point where you have to think if it doesn’t turn around soon, it might not happen at all, and that will not bode well down the stretch. There’s still time for this pass rush, but the signs of life are very few, and it is getting late.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We currently sit on top of the league with 14 takeaways, which is what I would rank #1 importance for any defense. 9 of them are INTs, which tend to be a much less random thing than fumbles. Nobody is perfect, but if we continue taking the ball away, we will be in a position to make a run late in the season. 

Honestly, the 7 giveaways are what I'd like to see fixed before anything else. That is a very easy thing to fix, or at least it should be.

[CheezWizHed]

FYI, I moved these two comments as I think you wanted the general Packer thread for general defense discussion...

The problem I have with turnovers is that you can't just "create" them all the time.  You have to rely on the other team making a mistake or at least giving an opportunity (i.e. carrying the ball loose, throwing a 50/50 ball, etc.).  

I'd say pressuring the QB is the #1 priority of a defense.  That is something you can control and/or create as necessary.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

FYI, I moved these two comments as I think you wanted the general Packer thread for general defense discussion...

The problem I have with turnovers is that you can't just "create" them all the time.  You have to rely on the other team making a mistake or at least giving an opportunity (i.e. carrying the ball loose, throwing a 50/50 ball, etc.).  

I'd say pressuring the QB is the #1 priority of a defense.  That is something you can control and/or create as necessary.

The only way to have a reliably dominant Defense is to dominate the LOS. 

That means when you know they're going to run, stopping the run, when you know they're going to pass, hitting the QB. That's a more reliable way to create turnovers than a QB having time to throw and a Safety playing out of his mind and coming up with some errant passes. 

 

It's the difference between those Favre teams near the end with Ed Donatell and the 49ers with Buckner and Bosa, the Buccs when they pressured Mahomes over 20 times, and the Giants their SB years. 

There's too much talent. It's hardly time to get desperate, but I'm 100% on board if they wanted to give up those 2 1sts for a player like Maxx Crosby or Dexter Lawrence....though obviously I think those teams will keep those players. 

[HarryDoyle]

The team worked out Brandon McManus today. Looks like Gute and MLF don't want to be too patient with Narveson.

Packers work out kicker Brandon McManus on Tuesday (msn.com)

[HarveysWBs]

12 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

The team worked out Brandon McManus today. Looks like Gute and MLF don't want to be too patient with Narveson.

Packers work out kicker Brandon McManus on Tuesday (msn.com)

I understand having it up to here with Narveson, but I hope it doesn’t come to this. McManus isn’t even that good, though he kicked outside in Colorado, which is a mark in his favor for our purposes.

I think we should meet anyone’s draft pick asking price for a reliable NFL-level kicker in a trade. I’d rather Gute hound the woebegone franchises as long as it takes to get somebody to do a deal than mess with McManus.

[Joseph Zarr]

More than brought McManus in. He signed. Narvs 'we hardly knew ye' was released.

[Joseph Zarr]

Fun fact:

In 2022, McManus missed 7 XP's for da Broncos.

Phew! I triple checked. He only doinked 2 XP's in 2022. We are SO back!

We got our Man!

[patrickgpe]

Glad they brought in a  team. An added bonus was that he has experience in kicking I’m the elements with Narverson didn’t 

The Vikings and Lions have young kickers with no misses to date. Packers had to do something 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

I understand having it up to here with Narveson, but I hope it doesn’t come to this. McManus isn’t even that good, though he kicked outside in Colorado, which is a mark in his favor for our purposes.

I think we should meet anyone’s draft pick asking price for a reliable NFL-level kicker in a trade. I’d rather Gute hound the woebegone franchises as long as it takes to get somebody to do a deal than mess with McManus.

Yeah, not super excited about McManus, but, he's better than nervous Narveson. 

Both he and Carlson seem like they could be NFL kickers, but you have to take the job. Neither could. 

 

Dallas signed a 28-year-old former Soccer player who was a computer engineer and he's become the best kicker in the NFL. He took that title from either Justin Tucker, a guy who wasn't good enough to be the starting kicker(but was the starting punter) for Texas his first two years or Harrison Butker, a guy who hit ~65% of his FGs until his Sr year at Ga Tech.

It's not quite as easy to find a kicker to hit 85%, especially in GB as we'd like it to be.

 

Anyway, now that Kicker is addressed, they've gotta figure out why this front can't get a reliable pass rush out of anyone other than Karl Brooks at the moment. 

[patrickgpe]

41 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

 

It's not quite as easy to find a kicker to hit 85%, especially in GB as we'd like it to be.

 

Packer fans have been spoiled again with Jacke, Longwell and Crosby for most of the last 30 years. McManus isn’t the greatest choice and is 33 but he is better than they have had since Crosby left. I agree it hard, but the Vikings drafted a guy who hasn’t missed yet and the lions got a guy from the ufl that hasn’t either. 

If McManus performs well, I’m sure they will try to sign him to a shortish term deal, to stabilize a position that has been in flux the last 2 years 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, patrickgpe said:

Packer fans have been spoiled again with Jacke, Longwell and Crosby for most of the last 30 years. McManus isn’t the greatest choice and is 33 but he is better than they have had since Crosby left. I agree it hard, but the Vikings drafted a guy who hasn’t missed yet and the lions got a guy from the ufl that hasn’t either. 

If McManus performs well, I’m sure they will try to sign him to a shortish term deal, to stabilize a position that has been in flux the last 2 years 

True, but even the two guys we're talking about, I believe they've collectively hit 1 FG outside a dome and that was in GB. 

But, sure, they've been very good. Reichard(SP) the kicker from 'Bama set records at 'Bama, Bates has bounced around for a while and the Packers did try and sign him...he just chose Detroit...and Detroit was looking for another kicker as he struggled badly in training camp and the preseason. He likely doesn't make the team if they're like the Titans and have a veteran on the roster. 

The only point I'm making is there's a suggestion that it should be easy to find a kicker who makes 85%(which you're not making) or even that you can look at how they did in College and that translates...but it really doesn't. 

I still believe the best choice would have been to stick with Carlson, work with him and Wheelan on his holding and we'd have figured it out like Crosby did when he had that brutal year that started with the 3 late missed FGs vs the Bengals(whose kicker incidentally was Evan McPherson, a very good NFL kicker himself now). 

It's just so hit and miss.  Sometimes your patience pays off as it did with Crosby, sometimes your impatience kills you as it did with Anders brother Daniel and the Vikings. 

 

[adambr2]

Hilarious but true fact. The Packers all-time leader in FG percentage (with more than 1 attempt) is none other than...Anders Carlson. 

[adambr2]

What hurts us more than our kicker issues this year is our lack of pass rush. Rashan Gary has GOT to start showing up. 

Van Ness has also been a massive disappointment. 

It's clear that this team has tried to build a defense around pass rushers which is the right way to do it. But the guys they handpicked aren't getting the job done and it's the difference right now between the good defense that they are and the elite defense that they could be if the pass rush was where they expected it to be. 

[LouisEly]

Going into last week Gary had been chipped the 3rd most of any player in the league.

There have been rumblings of dissatisfaction with the DL coach, that he's more of a rah-rah guy than someone who can coach guys up.

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Going into last week Gary had been chipped the 3rd most of any player in the league.

There have been rumblings of dissatisfaction with the DL coach, that he's more of a rah-rah guy than someone who can coach guys up.

TJ Watt and Myles Garrett are 1st and 2nd on that list and they're still getting to the QB. 

[CheezWizHed]

Interesting analysis on McManus: New Packers kicker Brandon McManus should be a big upgrade in this area (usatoday.com)

Basically states that he his 81.4% career FG average is due mostly to 50+ accuracy.  Whereas he hit 90.8% of FGs under 50 yards:

• 20-29: 94%
• 30-39: 93%
• 40-49: 86%
• 50+: 55%

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

31 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Interesting analysis on McManus: New Packers kicker Brandon McManus should be a big upgrade in this area (usatoday.com)

Basically states that he his 81.4% career FG average is due mostly to 50+ accuracy.  Whereas he hit 90.8% of FGs under 50 yards:

• 20-29: 94%
• 30-39: 93%
• 40-49: 86%
• 50+: 55%

 

I came here to post something similar based on his last season, after just looking at his ESPN.com stats. He was 81% last year which is not super good, but then you see it's 30/37 with 5 misses from 50+, 35/35 on PATs. 

I was wondering what took us so long, until I saw this: He was released on June 2, after sexual assault allegations stemming from his time with the Jaguars went public.^[41]

Desperate times, I suppose.

[Joseph Zarr]

50 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I came here to post something similar based on his last season, after just looking at his ESPN.com stats. He was 81% last year which is not super good, but then you see it's 30/37 with 5 misses from 50+, 35/35 on PATs. 

I was wondering what took us so long, until I saw this: He was released on June 2, after sexual assault allegations stemming from his time with the Jaguars went public.^[41]

Desperate times, I suppose.

Yeah. The original charges were dropped as a procedural item whereby the victims' names were originally not included. The refiled a few days later and included their names. 

I have to say, and I am not explicating McManus' alleged behavior in any way, but having read a description of the events in the original filing...this very very much seems like a case of an athlete who drank a bit too much and violated personal space like a drunk man would. In other words, it reads like things that happen in bars all the time. However, this happened to have happened on a plane crossing the Atlantic to a couple of flight attendants. It just reads like a case of some inebriated really bad judgment. I'm just not sure there's all that much there. And, having heard Gutekunst speak today I think the Packers know that to be true as well. 

Again, not explicating or discrediting this in any way...but I'm not going to jump on the classic modern social media outcry and canceling bandwagon like I've seen throughout Packers twitter. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Fwiw, here's Gutekunst talking about the signing:

 

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Interesting analysis on McManus: New Packers kicker Brandon McManus should be a big upgrade in this area (usatoday.com)

Basically states that he his 81.4% career FG average is due mostly to 50+ accuracy.  Whereas he hit 90.8% of FGs under 50 yards:

• 20-29: 94%
• 30-39: 93%
• 40-49: 86%
• 50+: 55%

 

If our kicker can hit 86% of his FGs from 40-49 yards I will be absolutely happy with that. 

[HarryDoyle]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Interesting analysis on McManus: New Packers kicker Brandon McManus should be a big upgrade in this area (usatoday.com)

Basically states that he his 81.4% career FG average is due mostly to 50+ accuracy.  Whereas he hit 90.8% of FGs under 50 yards:

• 20-29: 94%
• 30-39: 93%
• 40-49: 86%
• 50+: 55%

 

Exactly why looking at just field goal percentage is misleading. It does not take into consideration weather/field conditions, distance, did the coach try a 60+ yarder and the end of the half? 

I really don't think 81% is bad. That's Crosby's career percentage I think and other than the 2012 season and that game in Detroit a few years back, I was always confident he would make his kick, and he usually did. He's certainly made quite a few high stakes kicks in his career. McManus will be just fine: certainly a vast improvement over Narveson. I'm happy about the signing.