Packers 2024 Season Thread

[SeaBass]

19 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

You mean was I using FG %(the stat MOST people use when talking about a kicker) after I pointed out nobody was defending Narveson in the post in which I said it was Carlson's fault he got cut, he's the one that blew the FG after he had a spot on the team locked up in a FAR larger discussion about why it's hard to find a FG kicker who hits the desired 85% of their FG attempts?

Why yes, I was using FG%.

 

If you want to talk about "the rub," that'd seemingly require a much larger conversation in which you also talk about the poor snaps and then the rookie Irish punter who came up playing Soccer and had several terrible holds in which Carlson...really didn't have a chance(the 49ers game for instance) or the blocked kick while citing a list of Kickers who struggled early and then went on to have long successful careers(McManus for example 69.2% as a rookie or how Crosby was 76% combined the first 6 years in the league or Daniel Carlson, Harrison Butker, guys who were cut and then became All-Pros with their next teams, or how Aubrey didn't start until he was 28 years old...

But that's less of a "defense," of kickers vs a general point about the difficulty in finding an elite kicker. Then adding the caveat that McManus hasn't exactly been a "great" kicker. And since you seem to be inferring there's this lengthy defense of Narveson or Carlson, where I to defend a kicker, I'd probably lean more heavily into the marginal difference between Carlson vs McManus and then cite the two SA allegations he's coming back from(Which is why he's a FA in the first place).

 

But again, by the time Carlson missed that last kick, I didn't see anyone still arguing they should keep him and I damn sure didn't see anyone argue they should keep Narveson...

 

Right. And...who said it wasn't?

Ok. Again, I don't think anyone said he hasn't been more reliable from shorter distances.

 

This is the STRONGEST "kicker defending," I've seen on here were these two comments;

and;

 

That's...as close to a "defense," of a kicker as you can get. That an Adambr talking about how College kicking doesn't translate to the NFL...for some reason(which he's right, it doesn't...though you'd think if it did at any position, that'd be the one).

 

If you could show me who was upset about Narveson getting cut, that might help jog my memory a bit. The Carlson thing, that was over in the final preseason game...which I also think Adambr said and whose opnion I think most agreed with;

 

I haven't really seen anyone with a different take here. I did express some skeptiscm regarding one stat I saw about how good McManus had been, the "He is Top 10, historically, hitting from 50 yards and In over the past 15 years. That's in the upper 1/3rd of NFL kickers." -state which I didn't quite understand but all I did was point out Crosby was better from 50+ and Denver is OBVIOUSLY an easier place to kick long FGs as I believe all of the 10 kicks were either in Denver or in domes. Still not really a defense of kickers.

 

 

Actually...I'd argue you were "defending," McManus more than anyone has defended Narveson by putting equal weight into FG and PATs when one is worth 3X the points plus the field position, but maybe you took the extensive and various backgrounds of the top kickers as some sort of defense....I really don't know.

 

I do certainly hope McManus can come in and be better than he was the last couple years so they can turn their attention on more important areas of need like our DL. 

I think you're making more out of this than it deserves. For the record at no point was I directing my comments at you, which doesn't really matter because you are still allowed to disagree with me. I just said defending the cut players really didn't make much sense to me. If you disagree and feel people aren't defending them, fair enough. I don't think what I said was controversial to this extreme. If you want to call it a dumb comment fine by me.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, SeaBass said:

I think you're making more out of this than it deserves. For the record at no point was I directing my comments at you, which doesn't really matter because you are still allowed to disagree with me. I just said defending the cut players really didn't make much sense to me. If you disagree and feel people aren't defending them, fair enough. I don't think what I said was controversial to this extreme. If you want to call it a dumb comment fine by me.

Eh....maybe. But, as I said, I didn't see all the defense of Narveson you were talking about.

I do think some context is helpful when going from the kickers we've had to McManus who doesn't appear to be much of an upgrade(particularly going off his last couple of weighseasons). If you want to weight PATs equally, some context seems justified. If you have a PAT blocked because the wings don't block the inside man and he blocks the kick...is that the kickers' fault? Or if you have several bad holds, is that the kickers' fault?

 

I hope McManus is better. It seems like the holds have been much better this year(that's to be expected with a young punter who hasn't spent much time as a holder but is now in year 2). The snapping still seems to be an issue. But...hey, hopefully, the whole unit can be cleaner and we can be more consistent. 

[adambr2]

I used to scratch my head when we'd pay Crosby over and over and over again when really, he was usually anywhere from average to a bit below average as far as kickers go. 

But I guess one thing I've learned about kickers is that you're not necessarily paying so much for production as you are for stability. At the end of the year, what's the difference between an 84% kicker and an 88% kicker? Maybe one FG. Not much. 

So while it was always easy, and true, to say, "a lot of this teams are getting high end kicker production on rookie contracts", I kind of saw this last year or two, it's not always easy to find that, even if you use an early pick on a guy. Either you have stability at the position, or you're in flux. 

All we are really looking to do is not be in flux anymore. 

[adambr2]

I'll disclaim that by adding that Crosby did have a couple of really horrific seasons and he was fortunate to work for a patient front office who believed in his larger body of work. 

Missing 12 field goals in a season and having a job to return to next year is almost impossible in this era of kicking. I'd venture as far as to say you'll never see that again. 

[OldHeidelberg]

CB snap counts from Texans game, I knew Nixon was outside again but what happened to Valentine? Remember how him and Stokes were battling for starting job? Secondary has really shaken out a lot different than we expected but I love the results. 

CORNERBACKS

• Keisean Nixon 64
• Jaire Alexander 63
• Eric Stokes 8
• Corey Ballentine 2

[homer]

1 minute ago, OldHeidelberg said:

CB snap counts from Texans game, I knew Nixon was outside again but what happened to Valentine? Remember how him and Stokes were battling for starting job? Secondary has really shaken out a lot different than we expected but I love the results. 

CORNERBACKS

• Keisean Nixon 64
• Jaire Alexander 63
• Eric Stokes 8
• Corey Ballentine 2

I am pretty sure Valentine was hurt. Unless i heard "Ballentine".

[OldHeidelberg]

Valentine was active but he did have an ankle issue lately. That may be part of it but it is still sort of stunning to me that Nixon is playing ahead of those guys, Packers sure seem to like him a lot.

[kestrel79]

Why is Stokes playing less? Is he hurt again? Or is Nixon really outplaying him that much?

[OldHeidelberg]

20 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

Why is Stokes playing less? Is he hurt again? Or is Nixon really outplaying him that much?

Part of it is the emergence of Williams has pushed Bullard into slot corner where he has experience. Nixon wasn't very good in the slot in my opinion and it's possible they are just finding he is better outside. Maybe Nixon is emerging as a team leader who they just want on the field too. He is a solid tackler and has great speed.

[bjkrautk]

17 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

Why is Stokes playing less? Is he hurt again? Or is Nixon really outplaying him that much?

I think it has more to do with Evan Williams forcing his way into the nickel.  Nixon wasn't playing poorly in nickel, so they moved him to boundary with Williams on the slot receiver.  Williams is now taking starting reps from Bullard, who is now playing the in the slot.  Credit to the new DC for putting his best DBs on the field, even if it's a little unconventional to run 3 safeties in nickel.

[GAME05]

I presume Hafley has always considered FS/Slot Corner fairly interchangeable considering they added so many safeties in the offseason while not addressing CB. It seemed pretty clear Bullard, in particular, was going to be spending solid time covering Slot.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

Why is Stokes playing less? Is he hurt again? Or is Nixon really outplaying him that much?

I guess they believe it's the latter, but...I'm struggling to see it. You have Nixon and Ja play almost every snap on defense and then Valentine...I don't know if he even played.

I thought Stokes was playing really well. He was giving up completions, but the Packers were asking him to play man and weren't getting much of a pass rush. 

This Hafley guy seems to have a pretty good grasp on defense and secondary play in particular given his background and the 7 games he's coached this year...so I guess I'll just consider it a good thing we've got Stokes, Valentine and Ballentine ready to come in-in the event of an injury. 

[CheezWizHed]

I'm pretty sure Stokes was getting mediocre (at best) grades; not horrid, but not good either. Valentine was starting to out play him when he got hurt... then the Williams-Bullard-Nixon combo has played really well.  Now it will be hard to fight his way back in. 

Nixon won't be a shut-down CB on the outside, but he has been surprisingly solid out there.  

I'm curious if anyone can access PFF grades to compare the three CBs (and Jaire for all 4)?

[endaround]

53 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm pretty sure Stokes was getting mediocre (at best) grades; not horrid, but not good either. Valentine was starting to out play him when he got hurt... then the Williams-Bullard-Nixon combo has played really well.  Now it will be hard to fight his way back in. 

Nixon won't be a shut-down CB on the outside, but he has been surprisingly solid out there.  

I'm curious if anyone can access PFF grades to compare the three CBs (and Jaire for all 4)?

the DVOA prototype CB stat has Alexander and Nixon very good and Stokes very bad.

 

[BrewerFan]

1 minute ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm pretty sure Stokes was getting mediocre (at best) grades; not horrid, but not good either. Valentine was starting to out play him when he got hurt... then the Williams-Bullard-Nixon combo has played really well.  Now it will be hard to fight his way back in. 

Nixon won't be a shut-down CB on the outside, but he has been surprisingly solid out there.  

I'm curious if anyone can access PFF grades to compare the three CBs (and Jaire for all 4)?

Jaire-72.8 -76.4 Coverage grade
Stokes-52.4-50 Coverage grade(run defense grade was actually nearly 63...)
Nixon-63.9, 57.6 Coverage grade(94.9 pass rush grade, 69.4 run defense)
Valentine-58.5 57.8 Coverage grade
Javon Bullard 55 45.6 Coverage grade(exceptional run defense, 78.6 and a very good pass rush grade).
Evan Williams and McKinney are both...awesome.

Williams 89.5 around 82 in both coverage and run defense
McKinney 90.3, Coverage grade of 90.2(this was 94.5 last week, so clearly INTs are weighed VERY heavily) and then pass rush 80.5, run defense 70.3.

Just to my eye...FWIW, Bullard is graded the most harshly. 

I don't know how they grade...that'd be helpful. For instance, the TD that Nixon gave up in this clip, is this a negative play, positive, or neutral? IMO, you cover like this, you did your job. You're only expecting a handful of CBs to make this play.

It's also a lot easier to cover when you're just unloading on Stroud as they did this past week and much tougher when you're playing the Vikings or Eagles on poor turf. We've also played a lot of exactly the type of defense we all wanted when Barry was here. 

The PFF grades as a whole seem a little dodgy to me. Tucker Kraft has a ~57 overall, poor run-blocking grade, they have Jenkins as one of the worst run blockers at Guard in the league, and Rashan Gary jumped about 10 points coming off this past game, but in any event the arrow on this defense is definitely pointing in the right direction. It'd REALLY be nice to improve that pass rush though. Crosby and Garrett are incredibly unlikely, but we have a lot of talent on that DL.

[CheezWizHed]

Certainly any defensive metric is going to be somewhat subjective... what is a "QB Hurry? If I make a great move to get into position to make a tackle, but miss the tackle do I get graded worse than the player that made a bad read and was totally out of position?  

But at least they give some base to compare (assuming some error in the numbers). And both PFF and DVOA (I didn't think about that one) seem to align decently with the eyeball test. 

• Nixon and Valentine playing similar coverage, but Nixon is better at run support? Yeah, I can see that.
• Williams playing very high level overall?  Certainly!
• Bullard playing solid, but not great?  That is what I see.

Valentine was slowly taking over Stoke's snaps and these numbers support that. So you had Alexander-McKinney-Bullard-Nixon-Valentine as your nickel DBs. 

Williams forces his way in, pushing you to Alexander-McKinney-Williams-Bullard-Nixon.  Bullard-Nixon vs Nixon-Valentine is pretty even (little better run support, little worse coverage), but getting Williams in there makes a huge improvement. 

Good problems to have.

[Joseph Zarr]

Robert Saleh is indeed at Packers practice today with what certainly appears to be some type of practice script or coaches itinerary. Probably nothing but let's gossip and speculate - that's more fun:

 

[young guns]

Sounds like at least right now he's the offensive self scout coordinator. 

[homer]

Wyatt is back at practice.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

On 10/17/2024 at 4:13 PM, LouisEly said:

Carlson has the highest FG% (among those w/>1 attempt) in Packers history. 

So, either no kicker in Packers history has done their job, or people have unrealistic expectations.

 

When people say a statistic is a lie, this is one of those lies. 

This essentially means he has a higher career average than Mason Crosby. Nobody else has kicked once since 2005 save for one season of Dave Rayner. The standard for kickers is MUCH higher than it was in 2005. The leaderboard for kickers in the 90s has you unemployed today.

82% isn't great, but you could live with it if the misses were all difficult kicks. That wasn't the problem with Anders. He couldn't make gimmies. You need to be damn near 100% from inside 45 yards these days. You get to miss one kick like that a year. Two of them and they are looking at the waiver wire. Three and you are done.

[HarveysWBs]

58 minutes ago, young guns said:

Sounds like at least right now he's the offensive self scout coordinator. 

Can’t hurt, provided the pecking order is very clear, and it seems LaFleur was unequivocal today that Saleh is going to remain on the offensive side—Hafley can rest easy.

I like it. If Jordan Love gets a three-month masterclass in how to read defenses even better, that could be quite useful indeed.

[HarveysWBs]

When Jordan Love turned his season around last year, it happened at about the same time he started taking the check down throws.

In late November last year, after the Packers won two straight to pull out of their dive and head into their narrative-shifting win over KC, Tom Clements said:

”We might have a play that’s designed to go downfield, but if you don’t get the defense that’s best for that type of play, you have to be ready to check it down. Maybe early in the year he kind of held on to the ball al title longer and maybe didn’t check it down at times. But he’s done that more recently, and it’s paid dividends”

This year, unlike last year, he isn’t necessarily holding the ball and getting sacks, he is forcing the ball places it shouldn’t go, and his interceptions are way up. Currently, he’s tied with Mahomes for the most interceptions in the league despite only playing five games, while Rodgers and Purdy each have thrown seven picks.

Since Purdy and the 49ers have been discussed elsewhere, I’ll add that I would still much rather have Love at his present deal than Purdy on the Mr. Irrelevant deal, because I think Love has shown that he can make very rare throws. Purdy isn’t the arm talent Love is (and thank goodness—1st round picks should give you that kind of an advantage over guys taken in the last round). The key is going to be getting Love to play just a little more in the confines of the scheme and what the defense gives.

Bottom line, Love has done it before, and if he decides to start doing it again consistently, they’ll be a very complete team. Sky is the limit, especially with competent kicking.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

When people say a statistic is a lie, this is one of those lies. 

This essentially means he has a higher career average than Mason Crosby. Nobody else has kicked once since 2005 save for one season of Dave Rayner. The standard for kickers is MUCH higher than it was in 2005. The leaderboard for kickers in the 90s has you unemployed today.

82% isn't great, but you could live with it if the misses were all difficult kicks. That wasn't the problem with Anders. He couldn't make gimmies. You need to be damn near 100% from inside 45 yards these days. You get to miss one kick like that a year. Two of them and they are looking at the waiver wire. Three and you are done.

"Figures never lie, but liars figure."  

Chris Boswell has been PIT's kicker since 2015.  He's missed seven FGs under 40 yards and another 20 from 40-49 yards including 10 from under 50 yards since the start of the 2021 season.  And he's missed another 15 extra points including seven in the last five years.  PIT had a winning record in all but one of his seasons, and that year they were .500.

You might want to limit your analysis to kickers who have kicked for Green Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and New England (New York winters are relatively mild) to determine what the standard is.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

52 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

"Figures never lie, but liars figure."  

Chris Boswell has been PIT's kicker since 2015.  He's missed seven FGs under 40 yards and another 20 from 40-49 yards including 10 from under 50 yards since the start of the 2021 season.  And he's missed another 15 extra points including seven in the last five years.  PIT had a winning record in all but one of his seasons, and that year they were .500.

You might want to limit your analysis to kickers who have kicked for Green Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and New England (New York winters are relatively mild) to determine what the standard is.

"Through five weeks this season, NFL kickers are attempting and making more field goals than ever, as well as hitting them at a record 86% accuracy. From 39 yards or fewer, kickers are 145 for 148 (98%), which would be the highest mark ever. 

 

Kickers are on pace to make 251 field goals from 50-plus yards this season, which would shatter the record of 158 set just last year. In fact, in 2023, there were only 230 attempts from that distance.

NFL teams are sailing 76% of their 50-plus yard tries through the uprights. That number has not been higher than 69% during any prior regular season."

Now, this will probably taper off with bad weather, but I don't think there's a defense of Anders. He's just not reliable. He has a very talented leg so he might find something, but when he missed another chip shot in preseason, they had enough. 145/148 is insane. You HAVE to be make those kicks to stay employed in the NFL these days.

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

And he's missed another 15 extra points including seven in the last five years.

Missing 7 extra points in five seasons sounds like a dream kicker compared to Carlson who has now missed 6 in 18 games.

Edit: Oops, forgive me, if we're including playoffs it's 7 extra point misses in 20 games.