Brewers acquire Frankie Montas

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If there is a silver lining here, it's that despite the mediocre numbers, Montas still brings it with a fastball averaging nearly 96 MPH. I think it is pretty obvious that the Brewers didn't just acquire him on a whim. They must see something that is fixable in-season to make them think he will provide a large amount of value to the rotation down the stretch.  

[KeithStone53151]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I agree with you his physical tools probably got him drafted in the first place. However, it’s a results driven sport. Joey has not figured out how to even hit .260 in AAA. So it’s a pretty big assumption that he’s going to figure out how to successfully hit major league pitching. 

Falling steadily down the outfield depth chart; how much patience does Wiemer deserve?

Seems most likely the Brewers believed Joey was at or near his ceiling and that’s why he was expendable.

I don't think the Reds are assuming he's going to figure it out. They probably think there's a chance. Hypothetically, if 20% of the time Wiemer turns into a 3-4 WAR player for 5 years and 80% chance he doesn't get back to the majors...there's still value there. The Brewers weren't going to give him away for free, and considering how much starting pitching costs...it's safe to say at least the reds value Wiemer fairly high considering Junis was basically a salary offset. He's also not a long term investment unless he's good...they don't have to spend 3 years developing him. Give him a year, if they don't get anywhere...move on.

[shanedog19]

A few things. If you want to look at the cost for SP in this market, just look at what the Astros had to give up to land Kikuchi. We get a SP with comparable numbers at a much, much cheaper cost. From what I have read, Montas is a good clubhouse guy who will likely be a good fit. I think that is a big consideration for Arnold. At best, we catch lightning in a bottle and a SP who can pitch innings in the postseason. At worst, he puts up mediocre numbers and we're out a middling prospect who was never going to crack our outfield with the talent ahead of him.

[wallus]

Has there been any confirmation that Montas is for sure going in the rotation? I mean conventional wisdom would say yes but who knows these days.

[StearnsFTW]

I don't mind dealing Junis or Wiemer.  I just really dislike the target they picked.

 

As someone said though I do trust the front office and pitching lab so I'll hope for the best.

 

[liveforoctober]

Wiemer going back to Cincinnati is kind of a cool thing. Hopefully for his sake he has a scooter-like revival back where he feels comfortable and can make himself some money.. 

It'll be interesting to see if he reverts back to his old swing or if he continues on with the changes.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Well, the Brewers need innings. They don't care as much about first half ERA as most fans, and Montas has in the past been an effective starter. Did I mention innings yet?

Wiemer was put into a big league role last year earlier than anticipated (like Turang) and between that and his swing revamp, his development has been derailed and delayed while he's burned two options already. I still think he has a decent chance of being a productive player, his defense gives him a solid floor, but he is a bit redundant for the Brewers. Cincy should be a good (hometown?) fit for him, and I wish him well.

Don't love the deal, but I guess the inflated market for pitching made them pivot a bit...after reports of Fedde and Flaherty, Montas is a much lower and cheaper tier. In some ways I feel like this year is gravy, they never anticipated being so competitive, and they have been holding pieces in anticipation of their window being '25 and beyond. Maybe there's still a bigger deal to come, but I expect more fiddling at the edges.

[Underachiever]

Wiemer is from Michigan, played at U of Cincinnati. He played for the Bedford Kicking Mules in high school.

His career will be helped by access to Skyline Chili 24/7.

[wildcat2237]

My reaction to the Montas trade: 

1. The Brewers had a 40-man roster crunch. This solves a bit of the crunch. 

2. I had essentially written off Weimer as a part of the future. It appears the Brewers had written him off too. Hopefully the Reds dont turn him into Hunter Pence. That would really sting. 

3. I gotta think the Montas trade also really plays into what is going to go down today. 

 

[MrTPlush]

#1 I think one has to accept the fact Wiemer has basically no trade value and is quite worthless.

#2 I think one then needs to accept the fact his opportunity for playing time with the Brewers was on a ship that had set sail. 

So, I don't know, I guess I really don't care they traded him. His time with us was over and he had no value. If he becomes a good player, good for him, it wasn't going to happen here. 

[Thurston Fluff]

Not sure what

21 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

Don't love the deal, but I guess the inflated market for pitching made them pivot a bit...after reports of Fedde and Flaherty, Montas is a much lower and cheaper tier. In some ways I feel like this year is gravy, they never anticipated being so competitive, and they have been holding pieces in anticipation of their window being '25 and beyond. Maybe there's still a bigger deal to come, but I expect more fiddling at the edges.

I think the team planned all along to be competitive this season. The fans and media didn't, but the team did.

[Matt Breen]

After a night to think about this, I think the weird thing is that Montas just hasn't been good this year. That makes the deal odd.

• We need starting pitching - yet he averages less than 5 innings a start. 
• His ERA (5.01), FIP (4.91) and WHIP (1.436) are bad. 
• I looked to see if he's been victimized by Great American Ballpark (as have many pitchers), but his ERA is a full run higher on the road than at home.
• His walk rate is the highest in five years. His strikeout rate is lowest in that same time frame.
• The other thing it that Montas has had some nice seasons - but he's never been great. And his 'good' seasons are outweighed by too many 'bad' seasons. It's not like we are hoping to get Verlander in his prime or something like that. 

In the end, it doesn't seem like much of an 'upgrade' for this club. Especially as we give up some assets (not great ones, but a solid reliever is always a positive) and have to pay a lot more money for the guy.

My only thought is that the club sees some things they think they can do to fix the guy. If the club can get back 'average' Frankie - a 4.00 ERA type player - it's great. 

No matter what, he's our guy. 

[Brian]

29 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

Well, the Brewers need innings. They don't care as much about first half ERA as most fans, and Montas has in the past been an effective starter. Did I mention innings yet?

Wiemer was put into a big league role last year earlier than anticipated (like Turang) and between that and his swing revamp, his development has been derailed and delayed while he's burned two options already. I still think he has a decent chance of being a productive player, his defense gives him a solid floor, but he is a bit redundant for the Brewers. Cincy should be a good (hometown?) fit for him, and I wish him well.

Don't love the deal, but I guess the inflated market for pitching made them pivot a bit...after reports of Fedde and Flaherty, Montas is a much lower and cheaper tier. In some ways I feel like this year is gravy, they never anticipated being so competitive, and they have been holding pieces in anticipation of their window being '25 and beyond. Maybe there's still a bigger deal to come, but I expect more fiddling at the edges.

Don't forget about Wiemer's freak knee injury.  It actually looked like it popped out of joint.

 

[TURBO]

What does that matter?  So random.

[Brian]

4 minutes ago, TURBO said:

What does that matter?  So random.

Obviously you can't read because I responded to someone who was talking about it. 

You also responded 20 seconds later so I know you didn't read it.

[tmwiese55]

Can't say I really get this one.  Junis has been looking good and I've been thinking lately of why not just keep stretching him out and you might have a 5 inning guy in a few weeks.  I assumed that was somewhat of the plan with him when the signed him and paid him real money.   

Combine that with Montas being bad and I just don't get it. I'd have thought to stand pat rather than this, but of course keep shopping for the day remaining and see if there was a more reliable SP option to work out.   

But when it comes down to it and MKEs pitching history you just have to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume they think they have a tweak for Montas that will get him back to being good.  At this point I basically expect it.

[brewcrewdue80]

13 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

After a night to think about this, I think the weird thing is that Montas just hasn't been good this year. That makes the deal odd.

• We need starting pitching - yet he averages less than 5 innings a start. 
• His ERA (5.01), FIP (4.91) and WHIP (1.436) are bad. 
• I looked to see if he's been victimized by Great American Ballpark (as have many pitchers), but his ERA is a full run higher on the road than at home.
• His walk rate is the highest in five years. His strikeout rate is lowest in that same time frame.
• The other thing it that Montas has had some nice seasons - but he's never been great. And his 'good' seasons are outweighed by too many 'bad' seasons. It's not like we are hoping to get Verlander in his prime or something like that. 

In the end, it doesn't seem like much of an 'upgrade' for this club. Especially as we give up some assets (not great ones, but a solid reliever is always a positive) and have to pay a lot more money for the guy.

My only thought is that the club sees some things they think they can do to fix the guy. If the club can get back 'average' Frankie - a 4.00 ERA type player - it's great. 

No matter what, he's our guy. 

Maybe they see someone to move to bullpen and go 3innings, as I mentioned somewhere. 1st time through the order the numbers are good. Give him 9batters and follow with the quick hook beyond once someone gets on base.

[SoCalBrewfan]

15 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Not sure what

I think the team planned all along to be competitive this season. The fans and media didn't, but the team did.

Competitive as in fighting for a playoff spot, yes.  Did they anticipate being a game and a half from a first round bye at the trade deadline, looking down at the Braves and way down at the Cardinals and Cubs? Maybe, but I doubt it. Thus, 'never anticipated being so competitive.'

Their actions are intermediate, as usual, neither 'all in' nor 'this ain't our year.' Again, that impression changes if they spend big for Flaherty or Crochet today. For now, Civale, Montas and Mears (plus Jay I suppose) is a, hey, cool, we are surprisingly good with some gaps, let's ride it but not give up too much of the future.

[TURBO]

🤢

[SoCalBrewfan]

I believe the knee injury was in response to what I wrote, another factor for why Wiemer hasn't had a normal development track the last two years, and why assessing his future value is more challenging than a simple read of his stat line might suggest. 

[Underachiever]

If Montas pitched 5.1 or 5.2 innings and gave up 3 runs, how would you feel? That's a 5 ERA. I will take that.

Then the bats can come back from their slow start and 3-0 deficit against the other team's bullpen while Mears and company shut down the opponents.

A quality start, defined as 6 innings with 3 runs or fewer, would leave a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA if they gave up three runs every time. Would you think that was a good pitcher? The Brewers have done well with starters (and openers) who hang in there and keep the team in the game. 

[JCREW]

Weimer for Montas is a reasonable trade. 

What gets me is that with prices the way they are, I'm surprised we couldn't (didn't/wouldn't) use Junis to go out and grab a couple 19 year old ACL kids from some team.

[TURBO]

11 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

If Montas pitched 5.1 or 5.2 innings and gave up 3 runs, how would you feel? That's a 5 ERA. I will take that.

Then the bats can come back from their slow start and 3-0 deficit against the other team's bullpen while Mears and company shut down the opponents.

A quality start, defined as 6 innings with 3 runs or fewer, would leave a pitcher with a 4.5 ERA if they gave up three runs every time. Would you think that was a good pitcher? The Brewers have done well with starters (and openers) who hang in there and keep the team in the game. 

Dallas Keuchel?

Isn't that kind of what he did for us, yet we cut him loose, and we got him for $1.

I'm not saying we should have kept Keuchel, but what does Montas give us that Dallas didn't?

Meh, both crappy pitchers, so what does it really matter, other than we gave up $1 to get one, and Wiemer plus Junis to get the other.

[Lathund]

2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

I don't mind dealing Junis or Wiemer.  I just really dislike the target they picked.

 

As someone said though I do trust the front office and pitching lab so I'll hope for the best.

 

This was about what I, in my head, was looking to type when I entered this thread. Junis was gone after the season (And massively overperforming his peripherals) and Wiemer was never likely to get another chance here. But why Montas? Maybe they "know" how to fix his issues against lefties? But the fact is that neither his results nor his peripherals have been good. It's kind of a treading water type of trade, I don't think there would've been a massive difference in Junis vs Montas in the rotation for the rest of the season. 

But the people running things are not stupid, they don't take on more money like this without believing in something. I usually have some idea of what that is, even when I don't really agree with it, but this time I don't. As always I hope to be wrong. 

[SRB]

If you're looking for upside, it does seem his stuff has been much better after the first couple months of the season, which is perhaps understandable given he'd only pitched 1 IP over a couple years before that. The flukey topline results in July are obscuring things a bit, but since June 1 he has an 8.7 K/9, 4.22 xFIP