Brewers (Montas) vs Nationals (Irvin): 8/2/24, 5:45pm

[adambr2]

Just now, nate82 said:

Ummmm I have been saying Wiemer has no value for awhile now.

Alright. Well, not no one, then. 

[wallus]

6 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I've already beaten this to death in the Montas thread, but no one decided that Junis was a (negative??) asset and Wiemer had very little value until after the fact. No one was saying this a week ago. 

I don't think anyone thought or mentioned that Junis was likely to get traded. I have been saying Wiemer has little value for a while.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I've already beaten this to death in the Montas thread, but no one decided that Junis was a (negative??) asset and Wiemer had very little value until after the fact. No one was saying this a week ago. 

Junis is making $7 million with a $3 million buyout for next year and putting up zero WAR. That's a negative asset. And is borne out by BTV ($-3.2 million SV). 

Wiemer has a surplus value of just under $7 million per BTV. That's down by more than 50% compared to a year ago.

If you had asked me a week ago, I would've said the exact same thing. 

[Brian]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Ummmm I have been saying Wiemer has no value for awhile now.

100% agree!

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Ummmm I have been saying Wiemer has no value for awhile now.

You're not the only one either. Some thought he had more value and put him in some unrealistic trade proposals, but it's been clear for a while now that his value is minimal. 

[wallus]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

You're not the only one either. Some thought he had more value and put him in some dream scenario trade proposals, but it's been clear for a while now that his value is minimal. 

You mean like Wiemer (usually spelt Weimer) and Monasterio for Flaherty wasn't a fair trade?

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I can't believe our deadline acquisition gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and people love it. I don't care what his velocity was. Everyone throws upper 90s these days. 

I don't care about avoiding walks when you're allowing nearly 2 hits an inning. 

I'm stunned that anyone would refer to a 5 IP 3 ER start as something they want to see every time and refer to that as "the acquisition of the deadline".

I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone. 

I can't believe the lengths people are going to to force themselves to love this trade. 

No one's forcing themselves to love this trade. They're just choosing to not make a definitive assessment of the trade after a single start. 

[brewfanmn]

2 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I can't believe our deadline acquisition gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and people love it. I don't care what his velocity was. Everyone throws upper 90s these days. 

I don't care about avoiding walks when you're allowing nearly 2 hits an inning. 

I'm stunned that anyone would refer to a 5 IP 3 ER start as something they want to see every time and refer to that as "the acquisition of the deadline".

I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone. 

I can't believe the lengths people are going to to force themselves to love this trade. 

I just prefer not to evaluate pitchers (especially in a single start) by hits / runs which are obviously very flukey in small samples, and instead prefer to go by the things that are much more in the pitcher’s control (namely, the quality of their stuff and their ability to generate strikeouts while limiting walks). There are mountains of evidence that prove those are by far the most predictive things a pitcher can demonstrate in a small sample. 
 

Obviously he wouldn’t be the acquisition of the deadline if he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP every time out. My point is that if he continues sitting upper 90’s with a great K:BB ratio, he will not allow the hits / runs he did tonight. He had a 2.66 xFIP in his start tonight; if he had a 2.66 xFIP the rest of the season, he would be overwhelmingly likely to be the acquisition of the deadline.

[adambr2]

1 minute ago, brewfanmn said:

I just prefer not to evaluate pitchers (especially in a single start) by hits / runs which are obviously very flukey in small samples, and instead prefer to go by the things that are much more in the pitcher’s control (namely, the quality of their stuff and their ability to generate strikeouts while limiting walks). There are mountains of evidence that prove those are by far the most predictive things a pitcher can demonstrate in a small sample. 
 

Obviously he wouldn’t be the acquisition of the deadline if he allowed 3 ER in 5 IP every time out. My point is that if he continues sitting upper 90’s with a great K:BB ratio, he will not allow the hits / runs he did tonight. He had a 2.66 xFIP in his start tonight; if he had a 2.66 xFIP the rest of the season, he would be overwhelmingly likely to be the acquisition of the deadline.

Ok, that's fair. You're saying if the stuff continues to be the same, the results will follow. I can understand that. Hope we see it, would be huge to have a reliable starting arm for the playoffs. 

[brewfanmn]

7 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Ok, that's fair. You're saying if the stuff continues to be the same, the results will follow. I can understand that. Hope we see it, would be huge to have a reliable starting arm for the playoffs. 

Whoa. Civil discourse on the internet where two people initially disagree but find common ground after explaining a position backed by research?

Is that allowed?! 

[Scooterfletcher]

We are 6.5 games up on the cards.   We should have a good chance at winning the division and didn’t give up a hoard for a guy like Eric Fedde.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I generally ignore the first game a pitcher pitches.  I'm sure we work on evaluations on pitches and combinations with him... I'm more interested on how he does in the next two or three.  See what changes are made, how he executes as he gets more comfortable. 

I thought he was OK, actually more than OK the 1st time through the order. Then not very good. I agree though that he should be allowed to settle in, let the catchers get comfy with him & give Hook & Henderson a chance to pry open the top of his head & pour some of their stuff in.

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Junis is making $7 million with a $3 million buyout for next year and putting up zero WAR. That's a negative asset. And is borne out by BTV ($-3.2 million SV). 

Wiemer has a surplus value of just under $7 million per BTV. That's down by more than 50% compared to a year ago.

If you had asked me a week ago, I would've said the exact same thing. 

I may not have said it here but I and some others on BCB have thought that Junis was a sneaky DFA candidate at some point. His peripherals since coming off the IL were pretty gross and he rarely ever seemed available to pitch out of the pen. Just seemed like a guy who wouldn't have stuck on the roster as the pitching got healthier.

[AKCheesehead]

Shoutout to adambr for busting out a “soup pitched great “ reference tonight. Didn’t see it, unfortunately so that’s all I have. I’m  back in the frontier and this site is borderline unbearable on mobile. 

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I've already beaten this to death in the Montas thread, but no one decided that Junis was a (negative??) asset and Wiemer had very little value until after the fact. No one was saying this a week ago. 

Junis was hurt most of the year and behind all of Williams, Megill, Hudson, Koenig, Peguero, Payamps. Milner & Wilson on the depth chart and that was before they acquired Mears.

Even guys like Paredes, Rob Z, Bukauskas and Herget who could be back with the team at some point put up more impressive lines and flashed better stuff than Junis in their brief looks.

DL Hall will probably be back in the pen at some point, Misio and Yoho are long shot possibilities for September.

The team is pretty flush with relievers (+8.81 WPA, 2nd) rotation options are a little slimmer pickings (7.1 rWAR, 16th).

Wiemer has a 70 wRC+ with a 28.5 K% over 437 PAs in MLB. He is essentially the Aaron Ashby of outfielders at this point, has most of the tools needed to be a successful player but is a long shot to put it all together because his swing is so messed up.

Yelich, Chourio, Frelick, Perkins and Mitchell are ahead of him in MLB with Brewer Hicklen and Isaac Collins outperforming him considerably at AAA to boot. OF could still end up being Tyler Black’s best position too.

If they could have traded him to a non-divisional rival, for a better SP, they probably would have. That no one made a better offer kind of speaks to his value around the league.

Brewers brass apparently believes his flaws are so fatal that trading him to a division rival won’t come back to haunt them for years to come.

Will they be right? Stay tuned, I guess.

However it all turns out, I’m glad they moved Wiemer for Montas instead of dealing something like Black+ for Fedde or Pratt+ for Flaherty or Gasser+ for Kikuchi.

[bigred]

7 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I can't believe our deadline acquisition gave up 3 runs in 5 innings and people love it. I don't care what his velocity was. Everyone throws upper 90s these days. 

I don't care about avoiding walks when you're allowing nearly 2 hits an inning. 

I'm stunned that anyone would refer to a 5 IP 3 ER start as something they want to see every time and refer to that as "the acquisition of the deadline".

I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone. 

I can't believe the lengths people are going to to force themselves to love this trade. 

And others can't believe the lengths some are going to hate it. Not every pitcher acquired at the trade deadline is gonna pitch 7-8 scoreless innings, every time out. Milwaukee is a small market team. The chances of them making big splashes at trade deadlines is very low. The sooner some fans come to terms with that, the sooner they'll stop setting themselves up for disappointment every year. 

I'd like them to make a splash too, but definitely not holding my breath waiting for it to happen. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Our ‘needle movers’ often do not move the needle. And our under the radar acquisitions are often our best ones.

[Jopal78]

That Montas went 5 innings and kept them in the game is probably what the Brewers were expecting. 
 

The workload for their bullpen is more sustainable over the long run with Montas going 5; than an opener followed by Wilson then Johnny Wholestaff. 

[homer]

Of the 19 balls put in play against Montas, 4 had EVs over 100 and 5 and EVs over 95. That's quite a bit of loud contact. But the velocity was up over his previous starts. Could have been adrenaline, we shall see. He was a decent pitcher as recently as 2022 so maybe a tweak here or there and he gets you 5/6 innings and 2, 3 runs earned runs per start.

He had shoulder surgery in Feb of 2023. Maybe it's just taking him a while to get back to healthy.

[Sixtolezcano]

14 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

We are 6.5 games up on the cards.   We should have a good chance at winning the division and didn’t give up a hoard for a guy like Eric Fedde.

I hardly call Tommy Edman and Oliver Gonzalez a hoard. LOL