Dodgers (Flaherty) vs Brewers (Myers): 8/15/24, 1:10pm

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Joseph Zarr said:

SO, the Brewers have a HOF caliber closer back in the fold. They have their relief corps getting healthy at the perfect time. They have darkhorse studs in Yoho and Miz waiting in the wings. They have the third best run diff in all of baseball. They have scored the 7th most runs in MLB. They have allowed the 4th fewest runs in MLB.

This guy?

 

How dare you not mention the resurrection of Aaron Ashby from the grave.

[homer]

1 minute ago, Joseph Zarr said:

SO, the Brewers have a HOF caliber closer back in the fold. They have their relief corps getting healthy at the perfect time. They have darkhorse studs in Yoho and Miz waiting in the wings. They have the third best run diff in all of baseball. They have scored the 7th most runs in MLB. They have allowed the 4th fewest runs in MLB.

This guy?

 

Get Yelich healthy and...

 

 

[Sixtolezcano]

The epitome of small ball. Brewers win with scoring 2 runs by infield groundouts. A big thank you to the great Billy Beane.

[HarryDoyle]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Coming into the game the Brewers were scoring 0.11 runs per game fewer than the Dodgers (4.83 vs 4.94), you may need to recalibrate what constitutes a AAA lineup.

 

You're talking runs. I'm talking hitting. Take a look at how the Dodgers approach hitting and compare it to how we do and the difference is night and day.

[HarryDoyle]

1 minute ago, Sixtolezcano said:

The apitame of small ball. Brewers win by scoring 2 runs by infield groundouts. A big thank you to the great Billy Beane.

And to Hudson for showing off his goaltending skills. "Kick save and a beauty!"

[willie key]

If yelich comes back.    We got a team

 

now adames needs to get his head out of his you know what in the field.   He’s been killing us

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

You're talking runs. I'm talking hitting. Take a look at how the Dodgers approach hitting and compare it to how we do and the difference is night and day.

Walk rate
LAD 9.8%
MIL 9.6%

Strikeout rate
LAD 21.9%
MIL 22.9%

Chase rate
MIL 28.5%
LAD 29.1%

Contact rate
MIL 78.1%
LAD 77.0%

Swinging Strike rate
MIL 9.8%
LAD 10.8%

All the approach numbers under the hood are pretty close too, the Brewers even have a small edge when it comes to not chasing pitches and making contact.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Walk rate
LAD 9.8%
MIL 9.6%

Strikeout rate
LAD 21.9%
MIL 22.9%

Chase rate
MIL 28.5%
LAD 29.1%

Contact rate
MIL 78.1%
LAD 77.0%

Swinging Strike rate
MIL 9.8%
LAD 10.8%

All the approach numbers under the hood are pretty close too, the Brewers even have a small edge when it comes to not chasing pitches and making contact.

Any chance you have zone swing rates? Feel like that's one where we might lag behind the Dodgers

[brewfanmn]

7 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

You're talking runs. I'm talking hitting. Take a look at how the Dodgers approach hitting and compare it to how we do and the difference is night and day.

Is... the point of "hitting" not to score runs?

Brewers 7th in MLB in runs per game, 11th in wRC+ this year. If that's what constitutes "AAA offense," the competition level in the minor leagues must be much better than I realized. Brewers almost identical to Dodgers in K:BB ratio, and have been much better than LAD in high leverage situations, with men on base, and with runners in scoring position. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Nice snatch back. Just some thoughts, many of which were probably touched on.......

The butcher boy by Frelick was a bunt call in which he has that option if the corners crash, as per Murphy. Hacking at the pitch was I thought a great decision by the perfect guy at the plate to do it. Just need to get it on the ground, obviously.

I felt letting Turang hit in the 7th was a gray area. We all know he's not nearly as good vs LHP, but he's had two days of really good ABs. Turns out he put up another good one there up until the horrible swing decision at the end.

We all know the story about Peguero & the inherited runners, and it bit him again. But I didn't have a big issue with bringing him in there because there were two out & it was the 9-hole hitter, and it's not like he smoked the ball, just steered one to the oppo side out of everyones' reach. Plus in the situation they're in, yeah you'd like to catch Philly or LA but you have a comfy lead in the division & they aren't real big on bringing one of the setup guys in two days in a row at this point. Given that, Peguero was the obvious choice. If anything, an argument could be made that maybe you let Myers try to finish the inning.

For two days in a row now, we've had a starter stressed early & he hung in there, got outs w/runners on & gave us a chance. Today it was a rookie doing so. That's real "unsung hero" type stuff.

I've been down recently on Mitchell & Black. Today Mitchells' last two trips to the plate were magnificent, especially the walk he worked in the 8th after being down in the count. Then Black puts a good swing on the ball & basically singles through the left side if not for a diving stop, driving in the go-ahead run.

We just split with a very talented team while making mistakes all week. Would we be 'dogs to them or Philly in the post season? Of course. But what we saw this week isn't the best version of ourselves, either. I just think it's a helluva lot of fun watching this young group get stressed & see how they can react & grow. Three more big tests this weekend against more quality.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

22 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Walk rate
LAD 9.8%
MIL 9.6%

Strikeout rate
LAD 21.9%
MIL 22.9%

Chase rate
MIL 28.5%
LAD 29.1%

Contact rate
MIL 78.1%
LAD 77.0%

Swinging Strike rate
MIL 9.8%
LAD 10.8%

All the approach numbers under the hood are pretty close too, the Brewers even have a small edge when it comes to not chasing pitches and making contact.

After watching this series I'm admittedly shocked by this, especially watching the first two games.

[yourout]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

After watching this series I'm admittedly shocked by this, especially watching the first two games.

Me too.. 

Wonder if our perception of the dodgers is skewed because they seem to mash at will against us. Wonder what they're hitting numbers against us are compared to the rest of the league.

[Jim French Stepstool]

44 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

I couldn’t agree more. Humans, and maybe especially baseball players, are such creatures of the story. Even when we want to deny that the past bears any weight on our present and future, we fall back on literary metaphors like “we’re going to turn the page.” If they get swept or lose the season series by like a 1-7 margin, the story is the same old Brewers can’t hang with the big boys. Now they know they can do it, not just intellectually (everyone always knows sports is an any given day proposition) but if they have a narrative in their favor, that means belief. That’s huge.

And as a couple of people pointed out, they did so while not at their best this week. Anyone watching this series saw some pretty egregious mistakes, physical & mental.

[sveumrules]

33 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Any chance you have zone swing rates? Feel like that's one where we might lag behind the Dodgers

Dodgers are way more aggressive in the zone for sure at 71.1 Z-Swing% (5th) versus the Brewers at 65.6% (30th).

The Brewers selectivity leads to them making a smidge more contact in the zone though with an 85.9 Z-Contact% versus the Dodgers at 84.7%.

[BruisedCrew]

15 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

We just split with a very talented team while making mistakes all week.

 

If I had to come up with one sentence to describe my reaction to this series this might be it. 

Especially today, until the 8th inning rally, I was stewing over the general lack of offense, including some really awful at bats in scoring situations. I just about lost it when Frelick hacked at a high inside pitch against a pitcher who had just walked two batters, including the previous one on 4 pitches. Same feeling when Adames chased a 2-0 pitch about a foot outside with the bases loaded and none out in the 8th.

Then there were the defensive and base running mistakes that can be fatal against anyone, not just one of the league’s best teams. 
 

Hopefully the young players will learn from and grow from this series.  At times they looked like a team that was playing tight, and that won’t work in the playoffs or if they get challenged in the division race. 

[tmwiese55]

What makes them look so much better is because their top 3 in the lineup are clear cut HOFers.  There's nothing you can do about that, that's no reason to bash our own team that continues to win and play well in spite of the doom and gloom.  They're just a freakshow over and start at a ridiculous advantage due to having those 3 players who make more or close to as much as our whole team 

[wiguy94]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Dodgers are way more aggressive in the zone for sure at 71.1 Z-Swing% (5th) versus the Brewers at 65.6% (30th).

The Brewers selectivity leads to them making a smidge more contact in the zone though with an 85.9 Z-Contact% versus the Dodgers at 84.7%.

Yeah I think that goes to show the Dodgers as a team have better approaches. The fact they chase basically the same amount we do while swinging at pitches in the zone comfortably more is seriously impressive. 1 is elite swing decisions the other is borderline passive over patient.

[igor67]

Someone had posted it a few days ago, but the fact that we've only been blown out 7 or 8 times this season while every other team in baseball has been blown out at least 13 or more was really telling in terms of thinking how skewed some of our perceptions are in terms of stacking up. Not favorites at this point, but we are likely to play a whole lot of close games in the post season.

[Redd Vencher]

13 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Someone had posted it a few days ago, but the fact that we've only been blown out 7 or 8 times this season while every other team in baseball has been blown out at least 13 or more was really telling in terms of thinking how skewed some of our perceptions are in terms of stacking up. Not favorites at this point, but we are likely to play a whole lot of close games in the post season.

Brewers are also the only team in baseball to not have a 4+ game losing streak.

[Fear The Chorizo]

25 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

What makes them look so much better is because their top 3 in the lineup are clear cut HOFers.  There's nothing you can do about that, that's no reason to bash our own team that continues to win and play well in spite of the doom and gloom.  They're just a freakshow over and start at a ridiculous advantage due to having those 3 players who make more or close to as much as our whole team 

Their pitching staff IL also makes more than most mlb teams (when including ohtani not being able to pulitch right now)

[Jim French Stepstool]

27 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Brewers are also the only team in baseball to not have a 4+ game losing streak.

Beat me to it. I think that stat sorta goes hand-in-hand with @igor67's comments.

[82brewcrew82]

So much for  the "Get Yelich healthy" notion.  Good way to take the shine off of things.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Walk rate
LAD 9.8%
MIL 9.6%

Strikeout rate
LAD 21.9%
MIL 22.9%

Chase rate
MIL 28.5%
LAD 29.1%

Contact rate
MIL 78.1%
LAD 77.0%

Swinging Strike rate
MIL 9.8%
LAD 10.8%

All the approach numbers under the hood are pretty close too, the Brewers even have a small edge when it comes to not chasing pitches and making contact.

The Dodgers have 3 players with OBP over .380 and a Slugging over .490. The Brewers have one such player and it’s looking like he will end up having missed the majority of the games this year with injuries. That’s the difference in their offenses. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

Then there were the defensive and base running mistakes that can be fatal against anyone, not just one of the league’s best teams. 
 

 

That was my vastly larger point. Mistakes that have mostly been uncharacteristic this season & were still overcome. Throw in the stick-to-it-iveness Of Montas & Myers in the face of early troubles vs a lineup that can be overwhelming. Huge positives.

[Zad Fnark]

Just saw on FB that Yeli has elected to do the back surgery now.  He'll be out the rest of the year.