Brewers (Montas) vs Reds (Cruz): 8/31/24, 6:15pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

[liveforoctober]

Montas revenge game.

[treego14]

Montas will Cruz!

Crushing Cruz is what the Brew Crew dooooos!

[willie key]

Since it looks like another mediocre badgers season, thank god we got the brewers.   Best run differential in baseball

I hope all the hardcore run differential are right and that we can expect a a World Series here.  😀😀😀

[HarveysWBs]

I’m fascinated by the idea that the Brewers could simultaneously threaten to set a franchise wins record while also underperforming based on their run differential. For so many years under that other manager, the Brewers always seemed to way overperform their Pythagorean record.

My theory is that we used to use the bottom of the bullpen more in close trailing games, which led to more blowout losses than we have this year, but I’ve done no legwork to test that.

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, HarveysWBs said:

I’m fascinated by the idea that the Brewers could simultaneously threaten to set a franchise wins record while also underperforming based on their run differential. For so many years under that other manager, the Brewers always seemed to way overperform their Pythagorean record.

My theory is that we used to use the bottom of the bullpen more in close trailing games, which led to more blowout losses than we have this year, but I’ve done no legwork to test that.

It was really only two years (2018 at +5 and 2019 at +8) that the Brewers went crazy on their pythag, otherwise it was 2016 (-1), 2017 (+1), 2021 (+2), 2022 (+1) and 2023 (+2).

But yeah, six straight years on the right side of the ledger (even if only by a win or two) is still a pretty impressive run either way.

This year's model has definitely gotten the lion's share of their positive run differential from blowout games. 

BRef defines a blowout as a game with a margin of five or more runs. The Brewers are 25 W - 7 L in such games with a +128 run differential. That means for the other 103 games the Brewers have a +5 run differential and are 54 W - 49 L.

For comparison here are the other eleven current playoff teams with their blowout records and run differentials in those games...

KCR (31 W - 14 L) +112
NYY (32 W - 17 L) +98
PHI (31 W - 17 L) +79
MIN (26 W - 15 L) +72
ARI (24 W - 21 L) +59
BAL (22 W - 15 L) +51
HOU (25 W - 19 L) +48
CLE (21 W - 15 L) +46
LAD (17 W - 14 L) +45
ATL (22 W - 14 L ) +42
SDP (20 W - 18 L ) +37

Pretty nuts that the Brewers have seven fewer blowout losses and almost 100 points of W% (.781 to .689) over the next best blowout team.

Obviously not a perfect one to one comparison, but the minimal number of blowout losses and not having a losing streak longer than three games as of yet kind of gives me 2010 Packer vibes where they never trailed by more than a touchdown the whole season or whatever it was.

[Brian]

Cincy Sports Radio baffeled at how Brewers pitching coaches could get Montos's ERA to drop 1 full run per outing saying what are the Reds doing wrong? 

[Oxy]

6 minutes ago, Brian said:

Cincy Sports Radio baffeled at how Brewers pitching coaches could get Montos's ERA to drop 1 full run per outing saying what are the Reds doing wrong? 

Defense?  What's defense?  Must be amazing pitching coaches😉

[Gump]

Love to see another football score tonight 🤟

[Brian]

49 minutes ago, Oxy said:

Defense?  What's defense?  Must be amazing pitching coaches😉

You right just 3rd base and SS of the Reds have 52 errors already. Good eye. 

[HarveysWBs]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

It was really only two years (2018 at +5 and 2019 at +8) that the Brewers went crazy on their pythag, otherwise it was 2016 (-1), 2017 (+1), 2021 (+2), 2022 (+1) and 2023 (+2).

But yeah, six straight years on the right side of the ledger (even if only by a win or two) is still a pretty impressive run either way.

This year's model has definitely gotten the lion's share of their positive run differential from blowout games. 

BRef defines a blowout as a game with a margin of five or more runs. The Brewers are 25 W - 7 L in such games with a +128 run differential. That means for the other 103 games the Brewers have a +5 run differential and are 54 W - 49 L.

For comparison here are the other eleven current playoff teams with their blowout records and run differentials in those games...

KCR (31 W - 14 L) +112
NYY (32 W - 17 L) +98
PHI (31 W - 17 L) +79
MIN (26 W - 15 L) +72
ARI (24 W - 21 L) +59
BAL (22 W - 15 L) +51
HOU (25 W - 19 L) +48
CLE (21 W - 15 L) +46
LAD (17 W - 14 L) +45
ATL (22 W - 14 L ) +42
SDP (20 W - 18 L ) +37

Pretty nuts that the Brewers have seven fewer blowout losses and almost 100 points of W% (.781 to .689) over the next best blowout team.

Obviously not a perfect one to one comparison, but the minimal number of blowout losses and not having a losing streak longer than three games as of yet kind of gives me 2010 Packer vibes where they never trailed by more than a touchdown the whole season or whatever it was.

Yeah, I was conflating ‘18 and ‘19 with their more recent seasons, but you’re right, still a really impressive streak nonetheless.

I don’t know what to make of their blowout record. I agree that the lack of a losing streak and the fact that they themselves almost never get blown out bodes very well. But there’s definitely some weak competition accounting for a lot of what’s going on in that list. Brewers, Royals, and Twins are top-5 and they all get some weak divisional opponents to prey on. So the question is how real this Brewers team is.

I like the offense this year much better than I have in a while, even without Yelich. The pitching staff feels like it’s been defying gravity just a bit, but like their Pythagorean record, that’s seemingly something the Brewers just always do, since the defense is legit. At some point, we’re far enough along that you are what your record says you are. I usually try to assume my eyes are lying to me, but maybe, just maybe, this thing is real.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

I’m fascinated by the idea that the Brewers could simultaneously threaten to set a franchise wins record while also underperforming based on their run differential. For so many years under that other manager, the Brewers always seemed to way overperform their Pythagorean record.

My theory is that we used to use the bottom of the bullpen more in close trailing games, which led to more blowout losses than we have this year, but I’ve done no legwork to test that.

I think Jake Bauers throwing three scoreless innings in one-sided games this year has been huge in this regard.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

interesting ...

[edfunderburk]

26 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

interesting ...

Surely hope Chourio is not headed to the IL for 10 days. I want the Brewers to continue winning in order to secure a first round playoff bye. The NL Central race is over. 

[markedman5]

Chourio is back

 

[edfunderburk]

4 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Chourio is back

 

Why doesn’t Sanchez get more opportunities at DH?

[tonyei31]

8 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Why doesn’t Sanchez get more opportunities at DH?

Think it's just the cycle of it.  I think Scary Gary is 4 for his last 22.  Slumping from his end. Once he strings together a few hits in a game it will be status quo for his opportunities.  

[treego14]

[Jim French Stepstool]

35 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Chourio is back

 

Alright, then. With Chourio OK then Hicklin it is, as the extra position player. Feel a little bad for Collins, I think he's just a smidge more deserving (yeah, I know he's not on the 40). Hicklins' bat had been quiet for quite awhile but he's had a couple productive days recently. It gives them the option of sitting both LHH OF vs a LH starter now, if they choose.

[ToolShed55]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

Cincy Sports Radio baffeled at how Brewers pitching coaches could get Montos's ERA to drop 1 full run per outing saying what are the Reds doing wrong? 

I take it they are less than happy about the trade, then?

 

[markedman5]

So this is a bullpen day for the Reds right?

Interesting after a doubleheader 

[trwi7]

Ok so the way this announcer says Chourio is going to annoy me all night.

[DuWayne Steurer]

1 minute ago, trwi7 said:

Ok so the way this announcer says Chourio is going to annoy me all night.

I'm already close to punching my tv because of this.

[edfunderburk]

9 minutes ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

I'm already close to punching my tv because of this.

I switched my audio over to the radio broadcast on the MLB app & Apple TV 

[folly412]

41 minutes ago, trwi7 said:

Ok so the way this announcer says Chourio is going to annoy me all night.

We good now for anyone who turned off audio.  AJ and Myers corrected him.