Brewers trade for RHP Quinn Priester

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

When was the last time another team acquired a 24 year old starting pitcher who was a high draft pick but perhaps underperformed in his first 99 innings? Or similar 

Jake Arrieta worked out pretty well for the Cubs. 

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Fair but there have been ‘talented’ 24-year old pitchers forever. I can’t remember the last time a younger major league ready pitcher was traded. I’m sure it has happened though.

Happens all the time. Without searching rosters, two HOFers, Four All Stars, then one who pitched in the majors for 17 years:

Pedro Martinez

Randy Johnson

Trevor Bauer

Tyler Glasnow

Ian Kennedy

 

 

 

 

 

[Playing Catch]

"Why Priester?"
 

A. Groundball%. There were only 6 qualified pitchers last season with a groundball rate of better than 50% (two of which are Red Sox, Houck and Bello). Priester has routinely posted GB% north of that mark.

B. HR/9. There were 17 qualified pitchers last season with a HR/9 below 1.0. Priester never had a MiLB season above 0.75.

C. K-BB%. There were around 25 qualified pitchers last season with a K-BB% in 16-17% range. Priester's worst MiLB season was 16%, and last season in AAA was at 20%.

D. 4+ pitch mix. This guy has starter written all over him, and can spin pitches, having a 70-grade curveball according to some scouts at different times, and has had good velocity at times as well (96-98 mph according to a 2020 scouting report from BA).

E. First Round pedigree/good athlete. He has the "look," for whatever that's worth.

F. All of the above.

Coming up with a wrinkle to his fastball has been his bugaboo -- thus the Corbin Burnes sorts of comparisons.

He's already reached his floor as a depth starter, but I think if Priester ends up reaching his ceiling as a Brewer, it will look like Christopher Sanchez, Tanner Houck, or best-case, Framber Valdez.

I thought these snippets from old BA scouting reports were interesting.

From February of 2020: "He didn't have a pitching coach as an amateur, with a lot of his development self-taught from watching other pitchers on YouTube." 

From December 2020:  "Priester is a studious learner who quickly picks up the game’s newest trends on pitch mechanics and deception."

Time will tell if this trade ages well, or poorly, but I think the odds are good that this will end up being a fair, or better trade. I also think the likeliest scenario is that this trade becomes inconsequential over time. Priester becomes a serviceable starter, and the Red Sox never amount to much more than making a 40-man roster.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I remember the Adames trade and all of the negative responses, many of which focused on his .197 BA at the time of the deal. The many mentions of Priester's major league ERA to date have that same vibe to me. Even if that were the most relevant number (it isn't), there's a lot more to the story.

Yeah, he got hammered in his innings in Pittsburgh as a rookie. He's a talented arm who has reached the major leagues but still has only 134 days of service time. He will benefit considerably from the Brewers defense hoovering up ground balls behind him. It's easy to dream on the Brewers doing their magic and changing his pitch usage as well.

Did we give up too much? Nobody here really knows, though I admit I was taken aback at the cost. Controllable major league starters, even back-end ones, are costly. Buying in too early is the way Milwaukee needs to do this. If you wait to acquire someone who has already established themselves as an effective starter, you're looking at something really costly in terms of prospects or cash. There's definitely risk, but the upside here if Priester is even an average middle to back end rotation starter is huge. Yes I know folks dream on the draft choice and the 2023 triple signing bonus bank shot, but the Brewers have always taken a big picture view of assets rather than getting hung up on one particular anything.

Plus he seems reasonably healthy? Now that I've said that, watch him tear his oblique, two fingers, and a shoulder in the next rotation turn...

One does wonder at the timing though. I thought we were looking at Myers and Quintana back soonish, and more potential reinforcements in May. Is there some bad news lurking beyond what we already know?

[RobDeer 45]

31 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

Did we give up too much? Nobody here really knows, though I admit I was taken aback at the cost. Controllable major league starters, even back-end ones, are costly. Buying in too early is the way Milwaukee needs to do this. If you wait to acquire someone who has already established themselves as an effective starter, you're looking at something really costly in terms of prospects or cash. There's definitely risk, but the upside here if Priester is even an average middle to back end rotation starter is huge. Yes I know folks dream on the draft choice and the 2023 triple signing bonus bank shot, but the Brewers have always taken a big picture view of assets rather than getting hung up on one particular anything.

Well said and that's how I feel.  We don't really know right now.  Yes it's a lot to give up, but that's the way it goes with pitchers that are ready to go and controllable.  So all we can do is wait and see and cheer this kid on.  Most of the time on this site, we value our prospects more than most GMs out there.  And we love draft picks.  So most trades look bad through our brew tinted glasses.  

 

As for the worry about our current pitchers on the IL having some bad news coming, that could be true.  It could also be that we don't currently have depth and need it badly.  It will never be an issue to have too much pitching!  So hopefully those guys all come back, but there will be hiccups, and it will be nice to have depth like Priester.

[Austin Tatious]

Based on how much they spent on him, you’d think they targeted him with a particular plan in place.  I doubt this was just a grab of whatever guy was available.  I’m sure they saw something in particular they like and feel good they can develop.   This is not an organization in the habit of just giving up high draft picks.  They know the value of that money slot after they manipulated the money from the Pratt draft.   

[RobertCrawley]

We'll soon see what Priester has. He's scheduled to pitch Thursday in Colorado, according to the Journal.

[SomewhereInTime]

Good trade.  The main use of DSL guys should be to trade them.  For every Chourio there's a thousand Hedberts who get to A ball and can't hit.  Given the current system and the signing of them so young at 16 teams are incentivized to rush them up through the system too quickly compared to high school and college draft picks.  This is part of what has lead to the massive failure rate of DSL prospects.

[Playing Catch]

11 hours ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Good trade.  The main use of DSL guys should be to trade them.  For every Chourio there's a thousand Hedberts who get to A ball and can't hit.  Given the current system and the signing of them so young at 16 teams are incentivized to rush them up through the system too quickly compared to high school and college draft picks.  This is part of what has lead to the massive failure rate of DSL prospects.

I'm not sure I agree that the DSL guys "main" use should be to trade them, but your thesis is sound. It's hard to turn 16-year-olds into big leaguers within the team control timeline. There is probably an art to promoting players, and trading them before they fail.

[SomewhereInTime]

12 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I'm not sure I agree that the DSL guys "main" use should be to trade them, but your thesis is sound. It's hard to turn 16-year-olds into big leaguers within the team control timeline. There is probably an art to promoting players, and trading them before they fail.

Well the main use is to find a Chourio, it's just going to be very rare.  That Timber Rattlers roster has been littered for years with DSL guys who can't hit.  Now I'm not saying there's a lack of talent from Latin America, but at their age level they'd be playing in college if American born instead of entering their third or fourth year in the minor leagues.  Team control should be based on age a player is signed, it should not be the same for every player.

[LouisEly]

On 4/9/2025 at 8:01 PM, SomewhereInTime said:

Good trade.  The main use of DSL guys should be to trade them.  For every Chourio there's a thousand Hedberts who get to A ball and can't hit.  Given the current system and the signing of them so young at 16 teams are incentivized to rush them up through the system too quickly compared to high school and college draft picks.  This is part of what has lead to the massive failure rate of DSL prospects.

For the most part, yes.  If you sign a kid when he's 16, you should know by the time he's 18 or 19 if he's going to be a superstar.  If not, then he becomes available just like any other player in the system.

[Lathund]

It's a lot to give up, and I was looking forward to seeing what the team did with so many high picks in the upcoming draft. But I also think people tend to overlook the value of decent or average MLB players, especially pitchers. For this to not be an overpay but just a fairly balanced deal, all Priester has to do is be a #4-#5 type guy for a few seasons. If he's anything more than that, it's a good trade. 

The pick hurts the most for me, but the average career WAR for picks 26-30 is 2-3 WAR. My quick search didn't find anything for the spots below that where the pick would be, but should be about the same or slightly less. The actual pick could end up being a bust or a superstar, it's not really relevant for the trade itself. 

I liked Yophery, but if prospects are to be traded then I'm fine with it being low minors guys without standout tools. So that if he is a prospect who makes it, his impact is many years in the future, and the lack of tools limits the ceiling. To make a comparison, his 90th+ percentile outcome isn't, say, Mike Trout. It's someone like Ian Happ. Which is still a fine player to have, but not something we'll rue for years. Or at least I won't. 

But yeah, all this hinges on what Priester is. Point is, he doesn't have to be anything too special to have been worth it. I think the changes the Red Sox started to make, and I'm sure the Brewers will continue to do, will make it likely that he's a useful player for us. 

[Playing Catch]

13 minutes ago, Lathund said:

But I also think people tend to overlook the value of decent or average MLB players, especially pitchers. For this to not be an overpay but just a fairly balanced deal, all Priester has to do is be a #4-#5 type guy for a few seasons. If he's anything more than that, it's a good trade. 

Bingo. Usually with highly regarded prospects, there is a lot of development-risk, and reliever risk (like Misiorowski). Priester's risk-factors are low, except for continued MLB development (which may never happen, who knows). But he also has some development ceiling left to his profile. When he graduated from prospect lists he was still a Top 100 prospect. There's still enough room with his profile that he could end up actually being good, not just fine. That remaining hope of something more will cost you in a trade.

Fangraphs states that Yophery wasn't as valuable as the pick. Which is what many here at BF believe as well.

I think if the 2025 draft rolled around, and the Brewers picked a college senior at pick 33 that they thought could slot directly into their 2025 rotation, but with merely okay results, they would do it in a heartbeat.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, Lathund said:

For this to not be an overpay but just a fairly balanced deal, all Priester has to do is be a #4-#5 type guy for a few seasons. If he's anything more than that, it's a good trade. 

 

Do #5s even exist in this RP heavy era these days?  I feel like SPs going 4-5IP to avoid going through lineups a 3rd time has restricted #5s and boosts them to #4s 

5IP 1ER.  Great start to hopefully a long productive Brewer career.

[BeerSlide]

Forgive me if this was already stated, but it appears Baseball Prospectus has just released a large deep dive into this trade. & what might have been the Brewers thought process in making this deal. While I don't have a subscription myself, the article itself seems to be getting rave reviews

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, BeerSlide said:

Forgive me if this was already stated, but it appears Baseball Prospectus has just released a large deep dive into this trade. & what might have been the Brewers thought process in making this deal. While I don't have a subscription myself, the article itself seems to be getting rave reviews

Was a fantastic article. Really informative.

[BeerSlide]

The Friday 4/11/25 Rates and Barrels podcast from The Athletic talks a bit about the BP Priester article and the trade in general. Then a larger discussion of the Brewers pitching philosophy and continued league leading fastball utilization.....With a little Garrett Mitchell and Joey Ortiz love somewhat randomly thrown in! While much of it is framed within a fantasy context, it makes me feel good to hear smart baseball people like Eno Sarris and DVR give reasons for optimism.

[edfunderburk]

20 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Was a fantastic article. Really informative.

Can ou share a few highlights from this “fantastic” article?

[Brewer77]

The final piece of the deal

 

[Matt]

What a nightmare of a deal.

[Brewer77]

2 minutes ago, Matt said:

What a nightmare of a deal.

We’re a few years away from being able to make that call, but it certainly was a steep price to pay for an unproven arm

[sveumrules]

Ouch, that hurts. If they were gonna steal a 2024 college arm at least it isn't Tyson Hardin, I guess.

[biedergb]

1 minute ago, Brewer77 said:

We’re a few years away from being able to make that call, but it certainly was a steep price to pay for an unproven arm

I think any trade obtaining Quinn Priester where we gave up any value is a nightmare of a deal, he is just not a MLB caliber starting pitcher.

Now we have given up a lot of value - a toolsy, higher upside young OF, a high draft pick (and the bonus money that comes along with it), and a former day #2 draft pick who has looked good in low A with a fastball up to 96.

Ugh. After this offseason's review of Matt Arnold's trade history which has had little to no impact outside of his first few trades (and those I question since Stearns/etc were still "around" for the Contreras deal for example), the return for Burnes/Williams has been so underwhelming, and the cost for a borderline MLB pitcher (he has had ample opportunities to stay in the bigs or stay with a team) has me questioning the front office.

[biedergb]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Ouch, that hurts. If they were gonna steal a 2024 college arm at least it isn't Tyson Hardin, I guess.

OK, Sveumrules, thanks for saving me here - yeah at least it wasn't Hardin, Letson ('23 pick I know)!

[duewizard]

5 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

The final piece of the deal

 

Seriously?!?!?!? I hate overreacting but come on! Not only do we give up Yophery (a Top 10-15 guy for us who has an .866 OPS in A+) and a draft pick (seriously hurting our draft strategy for this year reducing our bonus pool) but now we give up one of the most interesting arms from the 2024 class.

Priester better turn into a rotation arm for the next half a decade because this one really stings.